An Oscar column on the cusp of August is largely intangible, and certainly subjective – much more so than anything that could spring up in the midst of the season. The lack of knowledge is vast, but it also provides the final stage for rampant speculation above all else. For many, that is where the excitement lives. Next month, eyes will finally be set upon awards hopefuls such as New Line’s “Little Children,” Universal’s “The Black Dahlia,” Sony’s “All the King’s Men” and Fox Searchlight’s “The Last King of Scotland.” But right now, Paramount’s “World Trade Center” is out of the bag, Focus’s “Hollywoodland” is continuing its slow roll of screenings…and that’s about all we have to go on. I’m seeing two of the Oscar big guns this week, and those viewings could certainly affect my ponderings herein, but I wanted to give one more somewhat, shall we say, uninformed look at the pool below before taking that fateful dive into the 2006 Oscar insanity.

Now, rather than bore the readership with a lengthy dissertation on rehashed or regurgitated information – information any Goggle search of “Oscar” and “predictions” would surely turn up – I think the best course of action in attacking the dawn of a new season is to take stock of where we are. News is few and far between in an Oscar race, but a few things of relevance are turning up as the year pushes forward, and such intricacies are what I’d like to discuss here today.

A point worthy of addressing right out of the gate is the lack of distributor interest in a number of awards hopefuls. As of this writing, no U.S. distributor has taken a shining to Milos Forman’s “Goya’s Ghosts” and Francis Ford Coppola’s “Youth Without Youth.” Why that is would be a point of speculation to be sure, but one thing is certain. A film lacking a distributor this late in the year is heading for trouble if it hopes to release on domestic soil by the Oscar deadline.

Of course, last year, Tommy Lee Jones’s “The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada” did not pick up U.S. distribution until after Toronto. The reasoning was fairly obvious. The film was arguably a rather poor debut effort from Jones, but it was inarguably a tough sell to general and awards-watching audiences alike. Sony Pictures Classics picked up the film in September, and by the end of the year, a quartet of Independent Spirit Award nominations was the only notable fruit of its labors.

Now, I am not saying that “Goya’s Ghosts” or “Youth Without Youth” are bad films. No one can discern as much quite yet. But I do believe a lack of studio interest this late in the game is enough to consider these films either headed for the 2007 slate, or not broad enough in their appeal to generate Oscar attention of any note. As such, you’ll find in today’s predictions update that both films have been removed from all charts, though they are still on the radar in our contenders archive in various forms.

A few things are beginning to come into focus on various fronts otherwise.

With the exclusion of “Goya’s Ghosts,” which might have presumably been a Warner Bros. pick-up given the history between the studio and Forman and producer Saul Zaentz, Steven Soderbergh’s “The Good German” stands as the studio’s likely lead contender. Under the new regime of former Focus consultant Michelle Robertson, Warner Bros. might be at the dawn of a new age where awards success is concerned, success that has largely alluded the studio for some time.

Meanwhile, Emilio Estevez’s “Bobby” is sliding into the poll position over at The Weinstein Company, a position generally considered chalked up to Anthony Minghella’s “Breaking and Entering” thus far. In fact, the shape of the Weinstein’s Oscar stable is beginning to make a lot more sense, as Stephen Frears’s “The Queen” and Chris Noonan’s “Miss Potter” look to be acting showcases for Oscar familiars Helen Mirren and Renée Zellweger respectively. The sophomore year for the new distributor could prove to be a bit more awarding than 2005.

Over at Sony, the concept of releasing Mike Binder’s 9/11 character study “Reign O’er Me” in December is being tossed around. The studio is staring at a likely divisive Sofia Coppola outing (“Marie Antoinette”) and a Steven Zaillian labor of love that is shaping up to be a miss in many respects (“All the King’s Men”) for their Oscar hopes.

Considerations were being turned to quirky entries like Marc Forster’s “Stranger Than Fiction” and Ryan Murphy’s “Running With Scissors” for Best Picture aspirations, but maybe counter-acting the other, more “expected” 9/11 releases with a story refreshingly anonymous, yet every bit as emotional in context, would indeed be the right move. Though “Memoirs of a Geisha” took a lion’s share of nominations and wins at last year’s ceremony, I’m sure the folks down in Culver City would like to finally grab another Best Picture berth. It has been a long drought since 1997’s “As Good As It Gets” after all.

Lionsgate bumped one of its awards hopefuls, “Trade,” to the 2007 schedule just last week, leaving last year’s Best Picture victor with a scant two Oscar contenders this season. William Friedkin’s “Bug” generated some hoopla for Ashley Judd’s apparently staggering performance when it screened at Cannes, while Griffin Dunne’s “Fierce People” is one of those films people have been talking about for so long they thought it already came and went. So it looks to be a lax year for Tom Ortenberg’s company this time around, and maybe they can make the best of what could be a return to form for Friedkin.

Typically awards-savvy, Focus Features has a similarly thin line-up on their hands under former Weinstein consultant Karen Fried, but the one-two punch of films looks to hold the right amount of potential for garnering a fair share of notices. When “Hollywoodland” drops in a month, much attention will be paid to the performances of Adrien Brody, Diane Lane and especially Ben Affleck. Meanwhile, Phillip Noyce’s apartheid drama “Catch a Fire” seems to be floating on the periphery of awards prognostication, waiting to be unleashed in October as what could be the first major awards success of Noyce’s somewhat uneven career.

Finally, Fox Searchlight really does have a glut of awards product on its hands this year. From films already in release, to a variety of upcoming ventures, the studio could be looking at a sizeable portion of the awards pie, potentially even Best Picture success for Kevin Macdonald’s “The Last King of Scotland” or Nicholas Hytner’s “The History Boys” (dependant upon critical reception and where the studio decides to place most of their monetary support).

The real discussion at the moment seems to be what to make of the performances in “Last King,” as James McAvoy, a certifiable lead in the piece, performs opposite a scenery chewing Forest Whitaker (in the role of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin). It will, again, be largely dependant upon the feedback the studio receives once they start screening the film, but the wise route to take might in fact be looking to Oscar history. In cases such as these, where clear leads are either overshadowed or otherwise held in check by smaller, showier roles (think “Training Day” or even “The Godfather”), the best course of action is to let the scene-stealer take his day in the sun – and a lead Oscar nomination for Forest Whitaker has been a long time in the making.

The rest of it you already know.

Dreamworks’s and Paramount’s “Dreamgirls” and “Flags of Our Fathers” are still considered the MVPs sight-unseen. But my doubts on “Flags of Our Fathers” are beginning to get the better of me – three straight Best Picture nominations?

Universal’s “The Good Shepherd” (which boasts a rather flat screenplay that may or may not be elevated considerably by the work of director Robert De Niro and his crew) is seemingly still awards magnet Universal’s lead horse. However, the promise of Alfonso Cuarón’s cautionary P.D. James adaptation “Children of Men” or the already critically tested and approved “United 93” could easily make cases for runs if the support and faith is there from the studio.

Stories of Robert Downey, Jr.’s finally turning a corner after a rough stretch in his career will (or should be) rampant. Too much attention will be paid to Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed,” expecting him to turn water into wine. Any number of nominations for “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” will be directly attributed by the media at large to the film’s box office success, while the absence of any number of nominations for “Superman Returns” will be attributed to its lack thereof.

But like I said. What we don’t know is so much more fun.

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