The question of whether Clint Eastwood’s “Red Sun, Black Sand” will be released this year is still floating around. Designed as the Japanese perspective Eastwood felt he was missing while filming “Flags of Our Fathers,” the film will be in Japanese with English subtitles. That might immediately keep it at arm’s distance from the Best Picture category, but Oscar nominee Ken Watanabe could have therein the perfect opportunity to be the standout in the film.

The buzz out of Cannes on William Friedkin’s adaptation of Tracy Letts’s “Bug” centered on Ashley Judd, in, most assuredly, an awards-begging role. However, most seem to be forgetting that Judd has a co-lead in Michael Shannon who, freaking out and sinking into paranoia due to the “bugs” he sees everywhere (hence the title), could chew as many curtains as Judd’s junkie. Meanwhile, boasting the perfect opportunity for his own scene stealing is Harry Connick, Jr. as Judd’s obsessive and deranged ex-husband. But this sort of insularity remains a thin line to walk during the awards season, as Richard Linklater’s brilliantly adapted “Tape” showed us a few years back.

Why is no one talking about the imminent comeback of Robert Downey, Jr.? Last year he stirred waves for his performance in “Kiss Kiss Bang Bang,” BIG waves in fact out of Cannes (where the waves are admittedly hyperbolic). That film happened to go on to decent critical praise but woefully underrated status on the whole. Downey was also a part of one of the finest ensembles of the year in Best Picture nominee “Good Night, and Good Luck.” But this year he’s forging ahead with FIVE major roles. And that’s, of course, not counting his better-forgotten stint in “The Shaggy Dog.” The indy hit out of Sundance, “A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints” and a showy turn in Richard Linklater’s "A Scanner Darkly” can only assist in highlighting his fall efforts in Curtis Hanson’s “Lucky You” and, most especially, David Fincher’s “Zodiac” and Steve Shainberg’s “Fur.” All of that traction and something HAS to stick. Right?

A lot of people are talking about Salma Hayek’s bat-shit insane killer opposite Jared Leto in “Lonely Hearts.” If the film ever finds distribution, she’ll certainly have a fair shake from the awards-watching community. However, while I haven’t seen “Lonely Hearts,” I have read the script, and James Gandolfini has a nice role as the detective opposite on-screen partner John Travolta (another great role). The story is told from the perspective of Gandolfini’s character, and it’s the sort of thing that, given the right attention by a studio Oscar campaign, could load up on awards consideration. Gandolfini also has what has been considered a rather showy turn in “All the King’s Men,” and then of course, there’s the whole “Sopranos” brouhaha. The guy is going to be nominated for something…someday. But not enough people are looking at the potential of this role and performance.

Christian Bale received the best reviews yet of an actor in the superhero genre last year for Christopher Nolan’s “Batman Begins.” This year he teams up with Nolan once more, and again, takes on a slightly psychotic character, in “The Prestige.” Bale seems to specialize in these introverted nuts-o characters, and if the trailer for this film is any indication, he’s got a stage set for the taking. Brilliant turn after brilliant turn has come out of this actor, from “Empire of the Sun” to “American Psycho” to “The Machinist.” The Academy will surely take notice someday, and while many are looking at Hugh Jackman (largely due to four prominent roles this year) and Michael Caine (double-dipping himself with this and “Children of Men”), the possibility is certainly there that Bale could garner intense critical praise two years in a row.

Kevin Kline won an Oscar nearly 20 years ago for “A Fish Called Wanda,” one of the coolest decisions the Academy has ever made. This year he put forth a cute and at times hilarious performance as an on-set security guard/self-fashioned noir-ish private eye in Robert Altman’s “A Prairie Home Companion.” Many keep that performance high on their radar for supporting actor hopefuls this season, but most seem to miss this little indy role coming down the line, in Marco Kreuzpaintner’s “Trade,” that could explode as Kline’s real awards opportunity. The subject matter of the film – sex trafficking – could certainly be touchy, but in the indy world, anything can stick for a lead performance. The Screen Actors Guild lauded Kline in 2001 for “Life as a House” while the Academy skipped the opportunity, but regardless, that “Prairie Home” performance could end up serving his role in “Trade” at the end of the day.

It seems to me people are starting to come around on this one, so maybe mentioning Maggie Gyllenhaal’s one-two punch (three if you count Sundance sensation “Sherrybaby”) is ill-timed. But all year long it has simply seemed like many were missing the notion that these two roles, in Marc Forster’s “Stranger Than Fiction” and Oliver Stone’s “World Trade Center,” are catty and painful respectively, two things the Academy likes in their supporting women. In Forster’s film, Gyllenhaal portrays the bohemian/sexy/no-bullshit baker that assists Will Ferrell in turning his by-the-book life around, while in Stone’s 9/11 entry she plays an emotionally distraught (and pregnant) Port Authority wife awaiting news on her husband, trapped under the rubble of the World Trade Center. People WILL be talking about this girl, folks. They’ve already begun…

“Hollywoodland” will tell the tragic and controversial story of the death of George Reeves, the actor most famous for his portrayal of Superman in the 1950s television serial. In the film, Adrian Brody takes on the fictionalized role of a private investigator, looking into the closed case (ruled suicide) himself. In the periphery, told in flashback, the story of Reeves’ inevitable decline offers the perfect opportunity for an actor with the right amount of charisma and fortitude to sink his teeth into the role of a man eventually beaten down by the industry in which he longed for success. In the film (which I have seen, but cannot yet review), Affleck nails the performance, despite any stigma the actor may have been enduring due to questionable professional decisions in recent years, and I think he will really kick off the supporting actor race when the film is released September 8. No one seems to really be looking that way yet, however, and I honestly expect that to change in a few months – but I’ve been wrong before.

Closing off the list is a role (and really a film) that remains off the radar of awards prognosticators insistent on the tealeaves that are in front of their face or far-too-obvious. “Catch a Fire” (formerly “Hotstuff”) is Phillip Noyce’s film centering on the life of South African freedom fighter Patrick Chamusso. Plenty of people are starting to see the promise of Derek Luke in a role like Chamusso, but what about that suffering wife mold the supporting actress category holds so dear? Not to overly draft things into such barbaric categorization, but I really do think Bonnie Mbuli could be the awards discovery of the season as Chamusso’s wife in the film, and the vast avoidance of that possibility really stands out to me. But, as can be said following any of the above commentary – it’s only July. Things have a way of not turning out according to expectation.

(COMING FRIDAY: Pre-Oscar Week concludes with "THE LONE DIRECTOR," a look at that ever-present phenomenon within the directing category - helmers who garner recognition while their films sit it out in the Best Picture race. Who will it be this year?)