Like money, for instance. You’ll notice that in this week’s charts, “World Trade Center” has taken a drop in quite a few categories, most notably Best Picture. That comes as a result of a number of things, one being the decidedly unspectacular box office accrual to date. A film opening late in the summer needs dollars to stay on the radar. The film might have the sentiment necessary, but falling shy of $100 million just isn’t going to cut it like it did for a star-driven “Ray.”

On the other side of things, “Little Miss Sunshine” continues a steady, purposeful rollout that is bringing in exceptional revenue. With per-screen averages rising above and beyond past comedic indie hits of its kind, the makings of a formidable contender are manifesting before our very eyes. We’re talking about a film that is already out-grossing internet buzz phenomenon “Snakes on a Plane” two weeks into that film’s release.

What’s more, Fox Searchlight is excited about this movie. Having a casual, fun and laid back publicity event at the Troubadour with DeVotchKa performing (featured on the “Sunshine” soundtrack) is one of those light but memorable touches that stands out against the fray of meet-and-greets and Q & A screenings. And Searchlight is not alone in their joviality. “Sunshine” is one of those films that sparks genuine passion from both critics and voters alike. You need those “love it” votes when it comes to Oscars.

The studio has a full, healthy slate of product, but they are being very smart about where their best sells are. At the end of the day, “Sunshine” will have a clear and definitive shot at a Best Picture nomination. The critical push may still go to “Babel,” sure, but we’re already looking at likely WGA, SAG Ensemble and Golden Globe Best Picture nominations for Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris’s successful little comedy. And if the overall box office tally hits an eyebrow-raising final mark, expect the PGA to follow suit. Those are four powerful endorsements, and the likely Independent Spirit Award clean up is just icing on the cake.

But back to “World Trade Center.” One thing I’ve been keeping an eye on ever since pushing the film into my predictions three weeks ago is this sense that two Americana, “rah-rah” films (for lack of better terminology) for Best Picture might be a bit of a stretch coming out of a singular studio. Oliver Stone’s film certainly hit the right marks and covered the appropriate bases for a Best Picture hopeful, and the thought of yet another Clint Eastwood/Paul Haggis effort making it into the big categories has just seemed…too much. But then that trailer for “Flags of Our Fathers”/”Letters From Iwo Jima” hit the net.

Of course, it is foolish to judge a film based on a couple of minutes of edited imagery, but what we saw in that trailer was something deep. “Flags of Our Fathers” really looks like it could be a film of the war genre that connects throughout the Academy, and that does not occur often.

With the crutch of “Letters From Iwo Jima” hitting in January, it all just seems like too smart a plan to fall through, failing the film being an outright dog. The December release for “Flags” is at the right time, and box office will not be a concern at that time. Clint directing his first World War II film could surely be too much for the boomer generation to ignore, so I hereby rescind my dismissal of its chances some weeks back. The guy simply looks to be on fire this decade.

Now, of course, there are still those that think “United 93” can be the rally cry of the Academy. But let’s face it…that’s not a safe film for a non-critical bunch of people to get behind. Some rules never go out the window, and if last year’s ceremony proved anything, it proved the Academy still likes to play it safe. “United 93” pretty much did what it was supposed to do for Universal. It made a little money and was a nicely prestigious outing, one that will remain one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. But it was never a real Best Picture opportunity.

I actually think Universal has some decisions to make. Robert De Niro’s “The Good Shepherd” is said to be playing flat (the screenplay certainly read as much). Maybe the choice to move, “Children of Men,” Alfonso Cuarón’s bent vision of the future, to Christmas Day is indicative of something. But comparisons to Kubrick notwithstanding, the film is still a genre thriller. The work will likely be cut out for The Angellotti Company in much less definable terms this year.

Sony still has a plethora of product, as mentioned some weeks ago in our studio breakdown. But the real concentration could end up on “The Pursuit of Happyness,” lying in wait as a warm and fuzzy December surprise. All the media attention on whether “All the King’s Men” was in trouble, “Marie Antoinette” was too divisive or “Running With Scissors” and “Stranger Than Fiction” were too smart and indie won’t matter much at all then.

So…that one-two punch of “Dreamgirls” and “Flags of Our Fathers” still seems like a solid bet for Paramount after all these months. “Babel” is its own entity, as Vantage sports an entirely different publicity push for their films than the parent company. But I still have to wait a little longer before I go ahead and give in to that. “Little Miss Sunshine” really does throw an interesting wrench into the works for Alejandro Iñárritu’s film, I think.

For now, we wait. Telluride and Toronto will unload a lot of tension like a cold shower – and I’ll finally be able to cut loose on the half dozen films I’ve seen in the interim that are set to play at the two festivals. We might be having an entirely different conversation in a few weeks.

Before cutting out, I have a quick announcement to make. I’m happy to say that In Contention will be covering the Toronto International Film Festival via “Tech Support” columnist Gerard Kennedy next month. Gerard will be blogging the entire experience, taking in a healthy amount of films and focusing things as much as he can, so be sure to read his thoughts throughout the festival, September 7-16. “Tech Support” will continue to run on Thursdays without interruption.

I’ll check in next week with a quick preview. Until then, you know the drill:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive
"The Contenders"

Previous Oscar Columns:
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"