Moving on, Peter O’Toole keeps receiving unanimous praise for his performance in Roger Michell’s “Venus.” We’re looking at a stone cold Best Actor winner, folks, because nothing else seems as novel in the year’s leading man race than finally awarding Peter O’Toole with a REAL Oscar. His stiffest competition will come from Forest Whitaker if the Academy has any real response to the brilliant “The Last King of Scotland,” but most likely Will Smith’s sentimental, aged performance as a burdened father in “The Pursuit of Happyness” will put up the most fight.

Next on the list, Ben Affleck took the win for Best Actor way over at the Venice Film Festival. His performance in “Hollywoodland” is his most accomplished to date, but this win still surprised the masses. Now we’ve got the makings of a campaign, and if the smart money stays on a supporting bid (which everyone seems to be on that page at Focus), then Affleck has a clearer trajectory than he did a week ago. The film has been well received on the whole, kind of a pleasant late-summer surprise for most.

Meanwhile, it’s all about the films. I feel like I’m seeing a good movie every other day lately, and that really is encouraging considering the final few big guns have yet to reveal themselves. Masterful outings thus far from Anthony Minghella, John Cameron Mitchell, Kevin Macdonald, Marc Forster and Stephen Frears, among numerous others, are making this a season worth becoming exhausted over; I really can’t say it enough.

Some quick commentary on the charts’ goings-on

Tobey Maguire is the big mover and shaker in the supporting ranks this week, catching a buzz wave recently, likely generated by publicists doing their jobs, but hey, where there’s smoke…

Also in the supporting chart, Ben Affleck gets re-upped to the predicted five. Now I’m wishing I’d have left him in there all along rather than pulling him back a week ago. Ah well, peaks and valleys, peaks an valleys.

Peter O’Toole, of course, also gets a big boost. And in lieu of the disastrous critical response to “All the King’s Men,” Sean Penn’s descent gives me the chance to move Jude Law up the Best Actor ranks as well. However, it’s difficult to expect the Academy to justly reward beautiful subtlety. And Penn has forced his way into a race before with a too-much performance in a critically panned film (“I Am Sam”).

Juliette Binoche explodes onto the Best Supporting Actress chart again this week, this time with reason. Her delicate and driven portrayal in “Breaking and Entering” is the stuff of awards glory. We’ll see how the campaign shakes out, as the Weinstein’s will have their supporting category hands full with “Bobby.”

The only chart that really seems to be firmed up is Best Actress. Those ten ladies look like what the category is down to, but it’s a fierce competition after that. I’d say my top six in the field are really down in the mud, with the other four ladies observing from the sidelines, waiting to make their move.

The only final thing to report, which went unmentioned beyond chart citations last week, is in the Best Original Song category. Paramount Vantage is pretty stoked about the Melissa Etheridge number, “I Need to Wake Up,” from the closing credits of “An Inconvenient Truth.” Meanwhile, the Weinsteins have high hopes for a Bryan Adams/Aretha Franklin ballad that will close “Bobby” (which is being screened as a “work in progress” at the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals). I’d expect both songs to join at least one of the original “Dreamgirls” numbers in the eventual lineup of tunes.

That’s all for now. Back to the festival. Stay up to speed with our Toronto coverage. Gerard’s feeling the pain this week, I have no doubt.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive
"The Contenders"

Previous Oscar Columns:
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"