With screenings of "The Departed" being well-received on nearly every front, there is a possibility that Oscar prognosticators might not have considered. Could Jack Nicholson, long-considered a supporting contender for his role in Martin Scorsese's hard-boiled crime drama, end up bowling over co-stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Matt Damon on his way to a lead nomination? I had not considered this possibility until I saw that my colleague Sasha Stone, of Oscarwatch.com, had stuck Nicholson into her lead actor predictions in last week's Gurus of Gold charts at Movie City News. The Toronto Star's Peter Howell also chalked Nicholson up in the lead category, and the more I ponder this scenario, the more it seems like something that might pan out.

Marlon Brando's classic portrayal in "The Godfather" shoved his co-stars (fit with more screen time) to the side in 1972 as the esteemed actor was nominated for, and ultimately won the Oscar for Best Actor. Anthony Hopkins's Hannibal Lecter was on screen for all of 30 minutes in 1991's "The Silence of the Lambs," yet the performance was earth-shattering enough to command a nod and win in the lead category as well.

We all know Meryl Streep's blistering performance in "The Devil Wears Prada" will likely land her a record 14th Oscar nomination this year. Despite the role being a supporting one on the page, the performance was electrifying enough for Fox to get greedy and suss out a lead berth.

2001's "Training Day" and this year's "The Last King of Scotland" are similar in this regard as well, as narratively speaking, Ethan Hawke and James McAvoy's roles are clearly the leads and the vessels that carry the audience through the story. But the work seen from Denzel Washington and Forest Whitaker was and is enough to go beyond mere supporting scenery chewing and into the realm of film dominance. Such is the case with Jack Nicholson's Frank Costello.

I don't believe Costello to be a lead role by any means. It is more akin to Ben Kingsely's work in "Sexy Beast," albeit it with more screen time. And funnily enough, I drew a comparison to Hannibal Lecter in my initial review of "The Departed," but even with that notion in print, I don't think this is a similar circumstance if only because Jack is surrounded by other leads, most notably Leonardo DiCaprio in his finest performance to date.

Then again, by all of this purely hypothetical logic, we would expect Warner Bros. to put DiCaprio in the supporting category for "The Departed" and free up space for a lead push in "Blood Diamond," right? And who knows, maybe Leo could land a berth in supporting for Scorsese's film after all.

In any case, brief column this week obviously, but I'm trying a few things in the charts as well. It seems to me, in a lot of categories, three or four contenders look like good bets, with the fifth slots kind of floating in the wind, up for grabs. It felt like the right time to plant a few flags for Rinko Kikuchi, James McAvoy (held over from last week), Rodrigo Prieto, etc. And I'm beginning to feel a tech-wave for Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth." I haven't seen the film, but from the imagery I have seen, the design is reminiscent of Tim Burton cinema.

I've also taken the opportunity to clean up "The Contenders" a little bit. All films lacking distribution have gotten the boot, and a few performances that just don't seem feasible in the derby have been erased as well. But I still want to keep that page wide open, with as many possibilities accounted for as I can.

Until next week:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive
"The Contenders"

Previous Oscar Columns:
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"