I'd like to see Eckhart sneak into the top 5. And Ryan Nelson? Is Gosling campaigning so hard that he changed his own last name for his movie?

Actually, yes. His success with the film has been so monumental that he thought he'd split the difference (rather than going with Half Gosling, I think he made the right choice). Isn't it insane!

(Thanks for the correction...)

If An Inconvenient Truth (or Shut Up & Sing for that matter) made it into the Original Song category, would that be the first documentary to get a nomination there?

Also, I wouldn't be so sure on an Art Direction nod for Children of Men. I mean, it's great work at all, but it's not big obvious work. There's a lot of countryside and ordinary houses. I'd love to see it nommed though, I'm just not sure if it's the sorta stuff that gets noticed by the Academy.

Two thoughts having just seen Babel:

Any chance for Gustavo Santaolalla to get another nomination for the score? It kind of snuck up on me, but it was quite good.

Also, don't you think the type of character Rinko Kikuchi plays is not at all the kind of character the Oscars go for? Particularly when Adrianna Barazza's very much IS. I know you've got them both predicted, and it's a weak field right now, but I think Kikuchi has a long road ahead.

Kris,

For Your Consideration

Emily Watson for Best Supporting Actress (Miss Potter)

Ewan McGregor for Best Supporting Actor (Miss Potter)

how about Almodovar for BDirector? ;o)

I'm still waiting for your review of PAN'S LABYRINTH!!!

Kris, what do you think about Beyonce and Hudson both being nominated in Supporting actress? Seems likely to me with a relatively weak category there. It would be the smart move, in contrast to the bonehead move of keeping all the men of Departed in supporting.

Also it seems with Good German failing the George Clooney spot has opened up, I can't see Eckhart at all, but what about Edward Norton or Clive Owen?

And Ballhaus will be nominated for Departed, you have him listed far, far too low, the cinematography was superb and the DPs will recognize him yet again for a staggering achievement. You have Schoonmaker as a frontrunner for editing, Ballhaus is equally up there for cinematography. flags of Our fathers is unlikely. the DPs didn't nominate Million Dollar Baby, they're not going to nominate an overkill DI film like Flags of Our Fathers.

Kris, you still think Annette Bening can score a nom? I doubt she'll get in over Kate Winslet. History has not only shown AMPAS likes the latter more, but Bening's over-the-top role in a failed and critically panned film basically has no shot, even if she gets a Globe nom. Think of Gene Hackman, snubbed for The Royal Tenenbaums, even after he won the Globe. Or last year--remember The Family Stone? So many still expected Keaton to get a nom...overbearing matriarch, "quirky" family misfire--spells out a miss to me.

Also, Little Children has finally got a campaign going, at least. FYC ads, DVD screeners sent out to voters--that, and Winslet can usually carry herself to a nom anyway. But I'm sure Adapted Screenplay will be a success as well--that field is weak and the film has been most praised, aside from Winslet's performance and Field's direction, for its script, which it might win for. (As far as any other noms go, I might consider Haley a dark horse--probably needs precursor support, right? Same goes for Somerville I think.) I know the film wasn't one of your favorites this year, but its chances are rising once again.

I really just have an inkling that having Warren Beatty in your hip pocket is a major benefit. Not to mention, I'm in the position of having seen this film with industry pros, including a premiere that went over swimmingly and a SAG screening that was massively successful. Just hanging it out there a bit more, really.

Little Children is the flipside of this, by the way. A film adored by critics that industry folks aren't really interested in.

World Trade Center over Babel for best pic? Have you lost your ever-lovin' mind? Bless your heart, but that is just plain looney.

I agree that Babel is going to make the top 5 - certainly over World Trade Center. I'm not even confident that The Queen will make BP at this point in time. Mirren carries the picture but is it a best picture?

KRIS:
Is official the DiCaprio supporting push for The Departed?

Poor Kate Winslet...New Line is the worst for Oscar campaigns. They didn't even lift a finger for should have been shoe in Joan Allen in Upside Of Anger.
Anyway, I hope you will soon take Meryl out of the top five, because she doesn't deserve lead for this performance! Not in a field that includes more than 5 better performances! She should go supporting or hang it up in my opinion.
Same problem with Beyonce getting in this group, she shouldn't be even be seated in the same row as these other women.
Also, it's time to remove Abigail Breslin in favor of Shareeka Epps ( or Streep)
I also was at the premiere for Running With Scissors and the film played great...that crowd really , as you said, really "got" the brilliance of Bening's performance. Remember how she milked laughs with the subtlest gestures? So, we'll see on that one.Pan's Labrynth is way better than Dreamgirls.