New Predictions
I felt compelled this morning, with renewed faith in balanced government and a few more relevant whims of fancy zipping through my brain, to update the Oscar predictions in the sidebar. Rest assured, chart updates should be coming back soon enough (hopefully as soon as next Monday's column). It seems as though my computer is on the road to recovery after a horrendous bout of Screwkrisandhisworkitis.
Anyway, a few things have been bugging me the last few weeks regarding the predictions, so I thought I'd give things a facelift.
The first thing that sticks out is the unfortunate fact that "Running with Scissors" isn't catching on in, really, any quarters. Even enthusiastic SAG screening responses might not be enough to benefit Annette Bening's solid portrayal, and same for Jill Clayburgh. Each has given way to Cate Blanchett and Adriana Barazza (joining co-star Rinko Kikuchi) in their respective categories.
Speaking of the women of "Babel" and their film, I really hate to see this thing, at least in limited release, missing the rave traction I had hoped for. A mixture of opinion came, kind of expectedly, out of Cannes, but I don't know. It just doesn't feel right anymore as that lone director slot, and certainly Best Picture is floundering. In the meantime, Universal and The Angellotti Company are stepping up their game for "United 93," so maybe Paul Greengrass can slide into contention at the end of the day. Just thinking out loud.
Also, with "The Curse of the Golden Flower" coming out headstrong from Sony Pictures Classics via numerous FYC ads and the definite intention of campaign muscle, I thought I might start lending credence to the film in the technical categories. Best Art Direction and Best Cienmatography are definite threats, but I'm sticking with Best Costume Design alone for now.
Speaking of the cinematographers, "The Good Shepherd" remains extremely quiet from the studio. I've read the script and interviewed Eric Roth fairly extensively (for other purposes), so I'm as informed as one can be on the story without having seen the film. I still think that trailer was a smash, however, with some nice work from Bob Richardson, so I thought I'd throw the film a bone this week with a mention in the cinematography category. When screenings start gearing up in the coming weeks, maybe more notices will come back its way.
Finally, Fox Searchlight is stepping their game up on screeners. "Little Miss Sunshine" is really threatening that light-hearted, four nomination Best Picture spot that films like "Four Weddings and a Funeral" and "Field of Dreams" have secured in the past. And "Sideways" is still a valid comparison, given the money involved. But with "The Last King of Scotland" and "Thank You for Smoking," the team is entering that second wave of buzz for their product. Maybe Jason Reitman can grab an adapted screenplay nomination afterall.
Anyway, that's all for now. "Tech Support" tomorrow, maybe something on Friday if I am freed up to write about the stuff I've been seeing recently. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the week.
Comments
Blanchett over Winslet? Have there been any advance screenings for The Good German yet?
Posted by: Jamie | November 8, 2006 06:58 PM
Honestly, I think Curse of the Golden Flower has a better chance at being nominated for Art Direction, and who knows? Maybe Gong Li could pick up some steam from this.
Posted by: Hardy | November 8, 2006 07:06 PM
Jamie: Yes. And more to come this week. But regardless, Winslet is out of this thing more and more. New Line seems to have given up on the film and it isn't gaining traction with the public. It's got some good reviews, but I don't even think the critics are willing to fight for it at this stage.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | November 8, 2006 08:11 PM
God, I'm sick of people who don't seem to understand that a movie/performance can be predicted before it's been seen. Over at Poland's hot blog there are people saying "how can Dreamgirls be the frontrunner if nobody has seen it?" It would be predicting if everyone knew what was gonna get nominated.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 | November 9, 2006 12:16 AM
I never said you cannot predict without having seen a particular performance/movie. It is possible to express curiosity once in a while; given Kris's rising status, he would be as informed as anyone regarding whether or not it had been received favorably or not. Done with rant.
I'm still holding out for Jude Law/Juliette Binoche pulling something off at the last minute.
Posted by: Jamie | November 9, 2006 10:22 PM
Interesting, i like your nows you've created...some very unique choices...but we both know there are always things that happen different from the end of the year buzz.
I hope the Good Shephard and Good German are both great films...I'm ready for the releases of these films.
It's a great year for film.
--RC of strangeculture.blogspot.com
Posted by: RC of strangeculture | November 10, 2006 06:53 AM
How was The Good German? I guess you can't really review it now, but can you say a few words about it? The lack of information is driving me nuts. Poland, Welss, you, Thompson... Nobody said anything. A single word... PLEASE!
Posted by: Jows | November 10, 2006 07:05 AM
The fact that you haven't heard anything out of anyone should really be a gigantic clue.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | November 10, 2006 01:22 PM