Oh honey, no.
Please no.

Eh, like I said...I'm feeling a bit wacky. I never put a whole lot of stake into winner predictions pre-nods in any case, so it's certainly all in good fun for now.

Plus, I like adding fuel to the fire of those who seek to disavow my "credibility." It's only OSCAR PREDICTIONS, after all.

"You wanna get nuts!? Come on! Let's get nuts."

It's Leo's year Tapley. Everyone knows it.

Not with that wishy-washy campaign it isn't.

at the moment, i think you are reaching kris. i just cant imagine the academy giving their highest award to a foreign language film, clint eastwood or not. the academy are sheep, they are gonna love dreamgirls. anything can happen i guess.

They are sheep, you are quite correct. Reaching might be what it is, but I can't stay on the "Dreamgirls" train any longer, "The Departed" is too emotionally vacant (even if it is one of the best films of the year), "The Queen" is too small, "Little Miss Sunshine" is too...cute.

If not "Dreamgirls," what wins?

i don't know what else, thats the point. Dreamgirls is just screaming oscar with that campaign and everything. i guess we'll have to wait until everyone sees "Letters" to make any predictions. at least you are giving us something to think about in the mean time.

I'm also giving you something to make wisecracks about when I turn out to be woefully wrong. I'm an equal-opportunity prognosticator.

I'm terrified that this is exactly how its going to go down.

However, I feel like Forest could come back in Jan when Last King goes Wide. Also, something that none of us expected could happen, like an upsurge for Painted Veil, or World Trade Center, or something really crazy that we just aren't taking into account.

If you turn out to be correct, it'll be a sad day for the Oscars. Granted, "Iwo Jima" might be a splendid film. But shouldn't the first foreign-language film to win the Best Picture Oscar be directed by, well, a foreigner?

True enough. But at the same time, deserving should be deserving.

Don't pay attention to me. I'm gonna be wrong, wrong, wrong.

Are you spoiling David Poland's thunder?

What do ya mean, numberina?

You knew that David Poland will be predicting "Letters from Iwo Jima" for Best Picture Oscar. I can sense (from reading the blog) that you're trying to emphasise that you are the first one who made the prediction. Is there a rivalry between you and Poland?

Mmm, a fifth Oscar for Eastwood? God no.
I think Dreamgirls is winning, and Martin is possibly taking director...

If Letters win Best Picture, Paul Haggis will be the most successful writer in the film industry with 3 films winning Best Picture consecutively. I won't see that happening.

Would Paul Haggis get nominated for Iwo Jima's screenplay? It was technically written by Iris Yamashita, but I guess Haggis could get in with the "story" credit.

The Departed was technically written by Siu Fai Mak and Felix Chong (Infernal Affairs). Will they be nominated for The Departed?

Numberina: No, that's not why. Just doing my monthly winner prediction thing, and not feeling Dreamgirls anymore. Likewise finding myself doubting Departed for the win for reasons stated.

David will be blowing the Dreamgirls trumpet until the bitter end. He's not going to predict Letters for the win.

"It's Leo's year Tapley. Everyone knows it."

It is? Since when? Last time I checked, the studio didn't even know what campaign to run him in.

If Scorsese loses the Oscar to Eastwood again I fully expect a random smattering of boos. ...maybe not AT the ceremony, but people will be scratching their heads over it and wondering why.

For an organisation seemingly hellbent of paying back all the old coots who they screwed over in their prime (Hi Peter O'Toole!), they seem to love torturing certain directors.