Just a note on some upcoming pieces here at In Contention. This year's Best Picture race seems to be the most wide open field in Oscar history. Any one of the five nominees has a shot at taking the prize. As such, I figure it's only wise to distinguish each entry, so I'll be talking to the talent involved and writing a piece on each film. It all began last week with "Little Miss Sunshine." Up next: "The Queen" and "Babel."

The Screen Actors Guild really botched the opportunity to stir things up tonight, seemingly doing what they have been told throughout the season and bestowing their acting awards upon pretty much the expected lot.

"Little Miss Sunshine" took the award for Best Cast in a Motion Picture, but failed to pick up wins in the supporting categories for Abigail Breslin and Alan Arkin. "Dreamgirls," meanwhile, took home wins in two of its three nominated categories, the most awarded film of the night, yet, not a Best Picture Oscar nominee. All wins were telegraphed, predicted from here (well, not here) to eternity, and pretty much sum up the buzz that was being generated two weeks ago.

"The Departed," again, seems to be lacking embrace from the actors, shockingly enough. This is the best film nominated for Best Picture this year, with an array of stellar performances. Now we see one acting nomination at the Academy, no wins from the SAG, and a pretty clear indication that the actors branch isn't as supportive of the film as may have been assumed.

Elsewhere, well, don't get me started on one hell of a failure to award the cast of "Deadwood." David Milch's brilliant tapestry is one of, if not the smartest show on television that was unceremoniously cancelled after three seasons, leaving the fates of themes, characters and stories hanging in the balance. Here's hoping those two feature films actually come to fruition.

By far the most wonderful speech of the night had to be Chandra Wilson's, who won Best Lead Actress in a drama for "Grey's Anatomy." She nearly brought tears to this big oaf's eyes when she ended a humbling and lovely diatribe of appreciation by stating "thank you for accepting me as I am."

Somehow awards groups keep considering Alec Baldwin's "performance" in "30 Rock" a performance rather than reading gobs and gobs of sarcastic, steadily humorless Tina Fey-ish dialogue. At least they got it right with "The Office," though it is hard to really pick the "best" between that show and "Entourage," I must say. But ultimately, I guess "right" is subjective - same as it ever was.

Which brings me to ask "the question." Are these REALLY the "best" performances of the year? Really? Save for Forest Whitaker (and there might be an argument there), I'm not convinced these victors of the motion picture categories are the most lived-in, the most achieved, the most accomplished of their categories, let alone the year. How is it that this happens every year? The critics get behind a number of performances early in the season and pretty much brainwash the rest of the industry for the duration.

But the thing to remember her is what is noted at the top: tonight's awards reflect the concensus of a few weeks ago, and the real campaign, the one that matters, started five days ago. There are films in the big Oscar mixture that weren't even singled out by the guilds. There is plenty of life out there and really, a lot of this race is ripe and ready for the taking.

Let's see how Phase Two plays out. God willing, the Academy continues to think for themselves like they did last Tuesday.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Leading Role
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

TELEVISION

Outstanding Ensemble in a Dramatic Series
"Grey's Anatomy"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Laurie, "House"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Drama Series
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy"

Outstanding Ensemble in a Comedy Series
"The Office"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Comedy Series
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Helen Mirren, "Elizabeth I"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Jeremy Irons, "Elizabeth I"

TRIBUTES

Voice Over Actors
(Presented by Keifer Sutherland)

Julie Andrews
(Lifetime Achievement Award, Presented by Anne Hathaway and Dick Van Dyke)

In Memoriam
(Presented by Dennis Haysbert)

The Screen Actors Guild awards will land Sunday night, and in a season that has proven itself just this week to be a bit less confined by the status quo than we would have expected, anything seemingly can happen. The race everyone will be looking to is Best Performance by the Cast of a Motion Picture, where two of this year's Best Picture nominees sit perched for the beginnings of a final sprint to the finish.

Here's a look at how I expect the night to unfold.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Predicted winner: Jennifer Hudson
Back-Up: Abigail Breslin

It's really left to be seen whether the industry itself is as high on Jennifer Hudson's "Dreamgirls" performance as the critical world has been, but I'll predict her to take the win despite myself. I have the lurking suspicion that Abigail Breslin could surprise the lot and pop up as the big winner here, but however things shake down, the truly deserving actress (Kikuchi) will remain empty-handed.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Predicted winner: Alan Arkin
Back-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio

A lot of folks out there in prognostication land expect the actors' only opportunity to reward Leonardo DiCaprio's "Departed" performance will show itself through the vote turnout in this category. I'm not so sure, especially given the fact that he's nominated elsewhere and could suffer vote-splitting. I also think the Eddie Murphy train will have stopped with the HFPA and Alan Arkin will begin his long road to an Oscar win with a triumph here.

The SAG likes its veterans. You'll recall wins in the past for Christopher Walken, Ian McKellan, Helen Mirren, Albert Finney, Judi Dench, Robert Duvall, Gloria Stuart (in a tie), Lauren Bacall and Ed Harris. And those are just the examples that didn't translate into Oscar success. Additionally, nominations have come for Sally Field, James Earl Jones, Stockard Channing, Gena Rowlands, Pam Grier, Kevin Kline, Cloris Leachman and James Garner when Oscar didn't come knocking. Suffice it to say, they dig the old-timers. Even more than they dig child actors.

This is where Alan Arkin's Oscar campaign gets its nitro.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate winslet, "Little Children"

Predicted winner: Helen Mirren
Back-Up: Judi Dench

On the stunning condition that Helen Mirren doesn't continue her precursor dominance her e(and after all, she DID win recently enough), I'd expect Judi Dench to be the one to slip in and steal the win rather than Meryl Streep (though I concede she too has won recently). But who am I kidding? The 2006-2007 film awards season is Helen Mirren's bitch.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Predicted winner: Peter O'Toole
Back-Up: Forest Whitaker

This is the first time since 1997 that the SAG's Best Actor category has matched the Academy's 100%. This is also a race at the Oscars many have chalked up for Forest Whitaker, and with due cause. Whitaker's performance as Idi Amin in Kevin Macdonald's "The Last King of Scotland" has DOMINATED the precursor circuit. But we're on a whole different playing field now, and if the Guild looks likely to toss a wrench into this year's Oscar expectations, this is where I think it'll happen.

You might know by now that Miramax sent out over 100,000 DVD screeners of "Venus" to the entire SAG membership, a strategy emplyed once before, when Lionsgate hawked a collection of "Crash" to acting households across the country. While that is a hell of a tactic, I don't expect saturation to be the only factor in Peter O'Toole's winning this award.

This is PETER O'TOOLE, an actor's actor. This is an awards show in its infancy that hasn't had the opportunity to nominate O'Toole, let alone award him a statue. To boot, the veteran thespian is portraying an actor in Roger Michell's film, a definite plus for a membership thatconsists of plenty of struggling performers. This isn't the uppity Academy membership we're talking about here. So while I don't think O'Toole will duplicate his SAG success at the Oscars, he certainly has the right role to win big here with a group that loves its veterans. It'll be a brutal two-way fight for the Oscar in the eyes of many following Sunday night.

Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Predicted Winner: "Little Miss Sunshine"
Back-Up: "The Departed"

And here's the big race. "Dreamgirls" and "Bobby" make themselves apparent here, but not with oscar, while the remaining three nominees are in the thick of the Best Picture hunt. Whoever wins here, mustering definitive support from the actors' branch, will have a leg up at the Oscars. But who will it be?

When you think of how this year has come to be defined, you have to consider the modest tale that is "Little Miss Sunshine." The Guild loves their comedies, but besides that, this film is the true organic ensemble of the bunch. Sure, "Babel" has a more complicated ensemble, while "The Departed" boasts more demanding portrayals and therefore more electrifying performances, but "Little Miss Sunshine" is the film that truly feels like an ensemble performance film. It is a family's antics unfolding on screen, with all age groups represented. And you just...can't...root...against...this...film.

I'm predicting "Letters from Iwo Jima" to win the Oscar at the moment, if for no other reason than I expect its buzz is just beginning, rather than drawing to a close. But if any film can topple it at the Oscars, it's "Little Miss Sunshine." The SAG Ensemble award will be a hell of a start.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) Predictions

Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Ensemble: "Little Miss Sunshine"

The Academy’s nominations announcement has come and gone. So what have the craftsmen and craftswomen told us this year?

The first thing that jumps to mind is that the branches weren’t afraid to think for themselves this year.

For the first time since the black-and-white and color categories merged in 1967, the Best cinematography category is completely void of Best Picture nominees. Tom Stern (“Letters from Iwo Jima”), Rodrigo Prieto (“Babel”) and Michael Ballhaus (“The Departed”) are all MIA. The branch also continues to shy, unapologetically, away from digital photography. Dean Semler’s work on “Apocalypto” was a guild nominee seemingly on track for an Oscar mention.

For everyone involved with the Cinderella story that is “Little Miss Sunshine,” yesterday’s Oscar nominations announcement was the highest of highs in a season full of them. But what began as the solitary vision of a screenwriter hammering out 54 page days in a modest Brooklyn apartment grew to become a collaboration indicative of the very essence of the filmmaking process.

Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa share producing credits with David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf and Marc Turtletaub. Directing couple Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris took the reins behind the camera in their feature filmmaking debut. And on the screen, one of the most critically and popularly lauded ensembles of the year performs as a dysfunctional yet endearing organism of the modern cinema.

An Academy Award nominee for Best Supporting Actress, 10 year old Abigail Breslin summed things up nicely yesterday when she said, “I can’t believe how very lucky I am. I love everybody involved with ‘Little Miss Sunshine.’ This truly feels like one big family celebration.”

But as many know, the road didn’t always appear to be heading in this direction. Five years of financing and refinancing, numerous revisions from writer Michael Arndt that included the creation of eight separate endings (Mr. Arndt was even fired from, then re-hired on his own screenplay) and the pressure of finishing production in time for the 2006 Sundance Film Festival made for a bumpy journey.

“Our only hope was that the movie get made,” Mr. Berger told me yesterday, calling from his Bona Fide Productions offices in Los Angeles. “This is all wildly beyond anything we could have ever predicted.”

Mr. Berger’s producing partner, Ron Yerxa, agreed, calling attention to how a story like that of “Little Miss Sunshine” would certainly appeal to an industry constantly in search of similar diamonds in the rough.

“Sometimes you can’t extrapolate widely enough that something with such humble origins can become a Best Picture nominee,” he said, calling from this year’s Sundance Film Festival. “But people felt like they discovered an underdog that wasn’t homogenized and pasteurized in the system. For anyone who wants to do sharp character stories and comedies, it has to be seen as an inspiration.”

Indeed, the film’s eventual emergence as one of the year’s five Best Picture nominees should be seen as a testament to fortitude and dreaming the dream. As Mr. Arndt told me yesterday after hearing the Academy’s announcement, “I knew that there were a lot of people out there who loved the film, but this is the ultimate validation of the idea that the film industry is democratic. A year ago we were hoping to get a distribution deal and now we have four Oscar nominations.”

For directors Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Mr. Arndt’s screenplay was the opportunity they had been looking for to make the transition to feature filmmaking efforts. Fans of director Hal Ashby, Mr. Dayton and Ms. Faris had longed for movies painted with the strokes of humanism that came to define his greatest work.

“The script made me laugh at the way people really do live,” Mr. Dayton said in a telephone interview along with his wife, Ms. Faris. “It was actually about something. And it’s not like anyone expected to get rich over this movie. Everyone involved did it because they loved the material.”

Ms. Faris agreed, adding, “One of the things that really hooked me was the Dwayne character. I understood everything from ‘I hate everyone’ to ‘Go hug Mom.’ It captured all the reality and anger and emotion of being a teenager.”

The directors were unable to translate their Directors Guild nomination into a directing nomination from the Academy, so the morning was bitter sweet in some sense. But being singled out personally ran a distant second to the reward that is seeing a modest creation embraced so warmly and with such absolution.

“We’ve said it before, but we feel like we’ve won already,” Ms. Faris said. Her husband and partner concurred, adding “We’re incredibly spoiled. I’d be the first to admit it.”

What remains now is whether “Little Miss Sunshine” can pull the final rabbit out of the hat and grace the stage at the Kodak Theater as 2006’s Best Picture champion. In a season that ultimately came to defy conventional prognosticating wisdom, surely anything can happen. But due to arbitration and Academy regulations, only three of the film’s five producers can gain admittance to the film’s listed nominees.

Mr. Dayton says he and Ms. Faris are writing a letter to the Academy in the hopes that all five men could be recognized. The Producers Guild of America saw fit that each was worthy of inclusion, and typically the Academy follows the guild’s judgment.

“We support the Academy’s desire to reduce the number of producers to those actually involved,” Mr. Dayton said. “It’s just unfortunate that they’ve chosen this arbitrary number of three.”

Mr. Berger noted the value of the collaboration and how important each producer was to the process. “We worked very effectively with these guys,” he said, “and we thought the Producers Guild gave the right decision. We’ll have to see what the Academy says after they go through their process.”

Mr. Yerxa agreed, adding that he and Mr. Berger “are not critical of the Academy’s decision. They’re in a really tough position that they haven’t been in before.”

In the end, “Little Miss Sunshine” is clearly the product of group effort, no more or less than the next film. It has been held under a magnifying glass in that respect this year, drawing more attention to the process than tends to see the light of day. But you won’t find anyone involved straining for individual credit. They are quite proud of what their artistic communion has yielded.

If the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is equally proud of the cinema as a collaborative art form, they could do a lot worse than to deem each producer involved an eligible participant. But no matter what the outcome, that yellow VW wagon will keep chugging along in the hearts and minds of those brave enough to embrace idealism and dream big.

The Main and Tech Category charts have been updated, linked both below and in the side bar. I have ranked all nominees in order of likelihood for the win. Please note that prior rankings were in order of likelihood for nominations.

Now...this day needs to be over. What a dizzy time it's been.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

I've tried to hold this until the end of the day. You know, happy thoughts and such. But while the Academy's announcement this morning was refreshingly "out of the box" in a number of arenas, I have to say that elsewhere, disasters are lurking.

An Oscar strategist pointed out the obvious to me immediately this morning, noting how incredibly lack-luster and downright incomprehensible the acting branch's decisions have become. These four categories rounded themselves out in a very predictable fashion as the season rolled around, and indeed, the only SAG snubee to show up was Mark Wahlberg. But what many seemed to be ignoring was the fact that, by and large, the actors backed some lame performances all season long.

Leonardo DiCaprio is great in "Blood Diamond," but it isn't an Oscar candidate by a long shot. And Djimon Hounsou, love him though I do, is nothing to write home about opposite Leo. I guess they just can't keep making it up to him for the "Amistad" snub, the one performance of his career that has truly deserved awards recognition.

The kool aid has been chugged by the gallon on Jennifer Hudson, whose "performance" in "Dreamgirls" remains the most overrated of the year. The girl's got the pipes, but she ain't got the stripes. Meanwhile, Meryl Streep's work in "The Devil Wears Prada" probably follows close behind in the "overrated" column. The entire industry has just run with the "fact" that this is somehow an accomplished turn.

Where's the love for thr truly daring performances that exhibit tour de force portrayals? Laura Dern in "Inland Empire?" She lost herself in that film with a madman behind the camera. Sergi López in the clearly beloved "Pan's Labyrinth?" I was scared shitless. Gael García Bernal in "The Science of Sleep?" The Academy isn't nearly cool enough yet to nominate such a performance, but this is the best portrayal on screens this year. Clive Owen in "Children of Men?" One of the most demanding and subtly brilliant performances of 2006. The wonderfully organic cast of Best Picture nominee "Letters from Iwo Jima?" The exceptional ensemble of "The Departed?"

And where the hell is "A Praire Home Companion?" Yes, Robert Altman's final film - one of the most rebelious and free-thinking filmmakers in cinematic history - came up with zero Oscar nominations. I don't even consider myself a major fan of the director, but "A Prairie Home Companion" deserved some sort of notice. It is one of his finest outings, and the perfect note on which to end his grand and singular career.

My fellow writers also let me down, snubbing the likes of "Brick," "The Last King of Scotland" and "Thank You for Smoking," among others.

Let's mosey into the technical categories, where things really get out of hand. Three of "Blood Diamond"'s five nominations are represented here, and while I can go with the sound mixers' branch chalking up the film in their lot - Best Sound Editing and, most shockingly, FILM EDITING? The latter category had a bevy of deserving candidates, everything from the wonderful mosaic of "The Last King of Scotland" to the artistic inegenuity of "Shortbus" deserved some props there. Sound Editing? Where is the specificity of "Happy Feet?" The horrifying work of "World Trade Center?" Sheesh.

Don't even get me started on Best Original Score, where not only was one of the finest works of film music composition this DECADE ignored (Clint Mansell's "The Fountain"), but so was Alexandre Deplat's most vivid and arresting work yet, "The Painted Veil." And I guess one should never expect the AMPAS to be so smooth as to allow Terrence Blanchard to finally join the party, ignoring him for fantastic work on "25th Hour" in 2002 and now, for one of the best scores of the year, "Inside Man."

No love for the unique "Strange than Fiction," nothing for the exhilarating "Breaking and Entering" and, clearly, no signs of embracing experimentation and allowing "The Fountain," "Inland Empire" and/or "Shortbus" into the fray. Some things...never change. But I guess it goes without saying, any Oscar announcement is going to have its fair share of disappointments. You will have yours. These are mine.

And the beat goes on.

I even took a nap, and still, I'm reeling.

It was a pleasure talking to some of the lucky nominees this morning. You never can get too much of a person's cloud nine excitement. So my congrats to everyone who landed safely this morning. It should be an interesting race from here on out.

Speaking of which, the sidebar has been updated with the full list of nominees and my first stabs at predicting winners, indicated by asterisks. I need to do a little research on the short film categories before venturing guesses there. But for now, I'm expecting "Letters from Iwo Jima" to take the cake. Anything can happen in this Oscar race, though, so don't place you bets too strongly just yet.

After a few weeks of frigid, citrus terrorizing temperatures, if you step outside this morning in Los Angeles, it's a beautiful, cloudless, sunny day. But it's a little sunnier for those who were greeted with Oscar nominations, whether expected or unexpected. I had the opportunity to talk with a few of the lucky souls who've had the pleasure of fielding phone call after phone call this morning. Here's what they had to say.

Lots of happiness in the Fox Searchlight camp today, as the little film that could, "Little Miss Sunshine" made its way to four Oscar nominations including Best Picture and, not surprisingly, Best Original Screenplay for Michael Arndt. I called Michael around 7:45 this morning to get his reaction, and he was still the same modest fellow I spoke to face to face over the weekend.

"I knew that there were a lot of people out there who loved the film," he told me, "but this is the ultimate validation of the idea that the film industry is democratic. A year ago we were hoping to get a distribution deal and now we have four Oscar nominations."

Michael says he went to sleep pretty easily (and who wouldn't, in his shoes), but that didn't stop him from waking up at three o'clock and suffering insomnia throughout the rest of the early morning hours. Suffice it to say, he was wide awake when he heard his name called this morning.

Best Supporting Actor nominee Jackie Earle Haley ("Little Children") has to be the happiest guy in the business this morning. "I think I'd have to agree with you on that," he told me, calling from his home in San Antonio. "This is just unbelievably crazy. They need to invent a few more words, because every adjective, this is just a little bit better."

The most adorable and giddy Oscar nominee you could expect to talk to, Haley was clearly on cloud nine, even hitting bouts of speechlessness during our conversation. Funnily enough, even in the central time zone, Jackie was asleep when the announcement hit. His wife ran into the bedroom screaming and crying, "You got it!" "We just hugged each other and cried for, like, five minutes," Haley said.

One of today's nominees was actually surpsinginly snubbed for his work on "Good Night, and Good Luck." last year, film editor Stephen Mirrione. Mirrione and Douglas Crise shared one of "Babel"'s seven nominations this morning.

"The types of movies I gravitate towards aren't really mainstream movies," he told me via telephone shortly after the nominations were announced. "So I'm pleasantly surprised when they become so widely accepted, even if I know the material I'm working with is exceptional. And I owe a lot to wonderful performances."

Crise has served as Mirrione's first assistant editors for ten years. This year he got the bump to co-editor because "Babel" started shooting before Mirrione had finished work on "Good Night, and Good Luck." Now the longtime collaborators get to share in the spoils of an Oscar nomination together.

Another nominee who has felt the sting of Oscar's avoidance is Patrick Marber, nominated today for his adapted screenplay "Notes on a Scandal," based on the novel by Zoe Heller. In fact, when Marber failed to score a WGA nomination for his work two weeks ago, he says it felt exactly how the circumstance of "Closer" played out in 2004, for which he received BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations, but found no such luck with the guild and with the Academy. Suffice it to say, he was pleasantly surprised this morning.

"Being nominated is a lot more fun than not being nominated," he told me, calling from London. "You suddenly get lots of phone calls from people you haven't spoken to in years. And it's huge for us, for the film, to get four nominations. Judi and I texted each other, and I got a one word email from Zoe: 'Yay.' She's always to the point."

Finally, one of the big stories of the morning was Picturehouse's six nomination haul for Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth." Hitting the ground running in its inaugural year, Picturehouse had two critically lauded efforts hit screens in "Pan's" and director Robert Altman's "A Prairie Home Companion." Picturehouse president Bob Berney concedes that it was a shame not to land at least one mention for Altman's golden-hued, poignant swansong, but it was bittersweet considering the surprising glut of appreciation thrown the way of "Pan's Labyrinth."

"We decided to come out at the very end, but to do that, you have to know you've got a great film," he told me earlier this morning. "It's cool to get these broader nominations outside of the foreign film category, because this really is such a group effort. You get a lot of energy from this film and it just takes you back to the joy of movies."

Berney conceded that a lesson learned in this introductory year for his studio was the subtlety of positioning your film as an underdog. The strategy paid off in spades this morning, and the president affirms that he and his team are ready to do it all over again next Oscar season.

For the first time in Oscar history, the leading nominations tally does not include a Best Picture nod. This is a shocking turn of events indeed. "Dreamgirls"'s exclusion from the big five joins "Volver"'s exclusion from Best Foreign Language Film as the biggest snubs of the lot.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences deserves some props this morning. They went their own way, like they always do. And in a race that really seemed locking down slowly in various races, we were met with a ton of surprises.

Best Picture nominees "Babel" and "The Queen" followed "Dreamgirls" with 7 and 6 nominations respectively, while the little film that could, "Little Miss Sunshine," racked up four. "Pan's Labyrinth" was also well-liked, taking down six mentions. But the real story of the morning has to be "Letters from Iwo Jima," which apparently made its way into more than a few DVD players over the holidays last month, pushed its way to a four nod tally including Best Picture and Best Director.

And guess what? I think "Letters from Iwo Jima" wins this Best Picture race.

I know I made this prediction back in December immediately after seeing the film, but as the guild tally looked bleaker and bleaker, I caved with the general concensus. I even predicted it to be shut out of the noms completely. Yet here it is, strangely absent in a number of races, but popping up where it matters. So how is the Academy going to shrug off the opportunity to hand Oscars to Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Martin Scorsese in one night? I don't know, I just have that tingly feeling inside, and for now, I think "Letters" wins this race - at least for now.

I guess I wish I'd have stuck to my guns, but honestly, it ain't over yet. This still curiously seems like anyone's race. Even "Little Miss Sunshine" has a film like "Driving Miss Daisy" to hang its hopes on, considering Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris could easily join the company of Bruce Beresford. They may have missed a directing nomination, but their film just won the PGA on Saturday, and in a race that has proven itself this morning to be more unpredictable than we could have imagined, I say even "Little Miss Sunshine" is still in the running.

So there we are, we got some shockers after all. Leonardo DiCaprio popped up for "Blood Diamond" and "The Departed" was apparently not as embraced by the actors as we may have thought, landing a solitary nomination for Mark Wahlberg. Paul Greengrass landed that Best Director nomination for "United 93," and what a deserving mention it is. But my personal congrats have to go to Wally Pfister, now a two time nominee and showing himself formidable with a well-deserved cinematography nomination for "The Prestige."

As for my predictions, I landed 69 of the nominees in the top 21 categories, 32 nominees in the top 8 categories - which is either good or bad, you tell me. The only categories I landed 100% were Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress and Best Visual Effects. Oh, and I'm pretty sure I'm the only bloke that predicted "Click" to show up in Best Makeup. Three words: "The Time Machine."

Anyway, what a morning. Wish I had more sleep. Now I just want an egg mcmuffin.

That's all I can say right now. More thoughts coming...

LAST MINUTE CHANGE!! - Nerves always get the better of me, and I invariably change a prediction at the last minute. This year, it's in the Best Original Screenplay category, where I've decided to go with Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth" over Paul Greengrass's "United 93," the battle of the critical darlings.

Tomorrow’s the big day. Today’s the last crunch. And with the AMPAS announcement less than 24 hours away, I’m not sure we’ve had such a clear portrait of the Best Picture line-up in quite some time.

2004 seemed pretty cut and dry, but there were still those expecting “Hotel Rwanda” to show up. 2003 also seems like it was an obvious fiver in hindsight, if not for the feeling that Miramax just had to continue that 10 year streak with a “Cold Mountain” mention. Every year, really, it seems that there is at least one film that could surprise and push its way into the fray. This season, however, you’d really have to be reckless to stray outside of the agreed upon “five.”

But hey, that doesn’t mean there aren’t 23 other categories up for grabs!

Gerard placed his chips over the weekend, and I’ve finally run a comb through my predictions to come up with what follows. In many cases, I’ve gone the safe route. I get the feeling trusting the guilds might be the best course of action this year, more so than any other year. At the same time, I have some gut instincts I’m going with here and there, mostly in the technical categories, which may or may not pan out. I long for something to turn my head, but to be quite honest, I expect to be nodding it with the fulfillment of expectation for much of tomorrow morning.

But enough talking – time to put my money where my mouth is. Below you’ll find brief analysis of each category. Full predictions are listed (and can also be found in the sidebar), while each section is accompanied by an alternate and a stab at a potential shocker. I’m labeling the latter my “Left Field” predictions. You can also find the Oscar charts, updated in full, linked at the bottom of the page.

Enjoy the predictions, and here’s to an exciting morning tomorrow.

Best Visual Effects: The bake-off list narrowed this category down for us somewhat, leaving the two locks present and accounted for: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Superman Returns.” Beyond that, you can really expect pretty much any of the contenders to show up. Despite a weak box office showing and a critical thrashing, I’m going to go with “Poseidon” in the final position.
Also Watch Out For: “X-Men: The Last Stand”
Left Field: “Casino Royale”

Best Sound Editing: The Motion Picture Sound Editors sadly will be revealing their nominees after the Academy’s announcement, so we really have no precursor to look to in this category. I’m still pretty solid on “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Cars,” and I figure “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Superman Returns” can slide into position easily enough. Given that the fifth slot seems so up in the air (and this is the first year the category has widened to five nominees), I’m thinking something like “Poseidon” can actually show up. They love their water movies.
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Happy Feet”

Best Sound Mixing: The Cinema Audio Society really cleared things up in this category last week, and their list of nominees seems safe enough to me. The Society doesn’t often line up 100% with the Academy, but I honestly don’t know what film(s) to count out and what the replacement(s) would be. So I’ll side with the CAS and stick with “Babel,” “Blood Diamond,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Departed”
Left Field: “Children of Men”

Best Music – Original Song: Everything from “Charlotte’s Web” to “Home of the Brave” could show up in this category. Additionally, the amount of nominees could round out to a shabby three like last year. “Dreamgirls” could even command 60% of the field, but I’ll stick with one “Dreamgirls” tune joining “Bobby,” “Cars,” “Happy Feet” and “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Also Watch Out For: “Borat”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Best Music – Original Score: Talk about a category that is creating mass confusion. With no precursor of note to guide prognostication, we’re pretty much left with history and gut instinct as to which composers will get in year after year – and typically, this in an insular bunch. I don’t expect Alexandre Desplat and Philip Glass can achieve double nominations in the fashion of vets like John Williams and James Horner in the past, but their work on “The Painted Veil” and “The Illusionist,” respectively, seem to be neck and neck for the ultimate win. In a bind, they’ve got “The Queen” and “Notes on a Scandal” to fall back on. Beyond that duo, last year’s victor, Gustavo Santaolalla, has had a decent run in the admittedly beside-the-point precursor circuit for “Babel.” It’s not a traditional score, but neither was Alberto Iglesias’s work on “The Constant Gardener” last year. To round it out, I am going to go with the feeling that, in a year full of great scores like “Brick,” “The Fountain” and “The Lives of Others,” the branch will stick to their own and nominate Thomas Newman twice, for “The Good German” and “Little Children.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Fountain”
Left Field: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

Best Makeup: Another category where a bake-off list narrows it down, I really feel like we may be in for a surprise. This is a branch that tends to appreciate realistic artistry more often than creative ingenuity, and even with exceptions to that flimsy rule, I wonder if something like “Pan’s Labyrinth” will fall flatter than expected given that its hopes hinge on the work put into just two characters. Similar objections might be made against “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” but I somehow expect Ve Neill and company will still find some space to breath. Former nominee Keith Vanderlaan also feels like a solid bet for the tribal period work on “Apocalypto.” For the last spot, I’ve suspected for a while (and a reader posted similar thoughts in the comments section yesterday) that Rick Baker could slide in for one of his two efforts, and in a category that never fails to surprise, I somehow think a nomination for the aging work in “Click” isn’t so far-fetched.
Also Watch Out For: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Left Field: “The Santa Claus 3: The Escape Clause”

Best Film Editing: The American Cinema Editors tossed an interesting log onto the fire in the form of Stuart Baird and “Casino Royale” grabbing a mention, but I expect the surprises will stop there and we’ll see a line-up largely reflective of the Best Picture category. I’m banking on “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Queen” and “United 93.”
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Best Costume Design: The Costume Designers Guild seems to disagree with the Academy more often than not, but I get the feeling that fifteen nominees make the field wide enough to land at least the bulk of the eventual nominees. I’m not buying the expectations for “The Devil Wears Prada,” considering this is a branch that avoids contemporary product like the plague, no matter how integral to the film’s plot. So I’m sticking with “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Illusionist,” “Marie Antoinette” and, in a slight surprise, Oscar favorite Jenny Beaven showing up for “The Black Dahlia.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Devil Wears Prada”
Left Field: “Infamous”

Best Cinematography: The American Society of Cinematographers really threw a wrench into the works when they announced their nominees a few weeks back. In fact, they kept the Best Picture mix clouded for a short time, leaving all frontrunners off their short list. Usually the group misses one, and though I feel like Vilmos Zsigmond could surprisingly translate his guild nod for “The Black Dahlia” to an Oscar nomination, I’m joining the crow and leaving him off here. “Apocalypto” could also be left off the list, considering the guild digs on digital more so than the Academy, but I’ll stick with Dean Semler. I expect him to join Emmanuel Lubezki (“Children of Men”), Robert Richardson (“The Good Shepherd”) and Dick Pope (“The Illusionist”) in the eventual line-up. That leaves Tobias A. Schliessler and his vibrant work on “Dreamgirls” standing out as the only Best Picture nominee in the bunch.
Also Watch Out For: “Babel”
Left Field: “Flags of Our Fathers”

Best Art Direction: With the splitting off of the fantasy and period categories at the Art Directors Guild this year, we’re left with fifteen nominees to peruse for ultimate Oscar consideration. I think period nominees “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “The Prestige” will join fantasy nominee “Pan’s Labyrinth” a the big dance, with “Children of Men” being a surprise omission.
Also Watch Out For: “Children of Men”
Left Field: “Superman Returns”

Best Animated Feature Film: Too bad for two unlucky films that this category was reduced down to a three-contender arena few weeks ago with the departure of one of the qualifying films, but I don’t think it made much of a difference for frontrunners “Cars” and “Happy Feet.” For the last slot, I’m sticking with what the Annies told us and what the box office reflected, giving the edge to Dreamworks and “Over the Hedge.”
Also Watch Out For: “Monster House”
Left Field: “Ice Age: The Meltdown”

Best Original Screenplay: I was personally quite appreciative of the Writers Guild’s choices for nominees in this category, and expect only “Stranger than Fiction” to fall by the wayside. This will be a brutal fight between “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen,” so fellow nominees “Babel,” “Volver” and (hanging it out there for this one) “Pan’s Labyrinth” will have to enjoy the spectacle…if, in fact, my predictions pan out.
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “The Lives of Others”

Best Adapted Screenplay: The WGA and the USC Scripter are the best precursors to watch for in this category, but this year, it really seems like a number of scenarios could unfold. The frontrunners seem to remain “The Departed” and “The Devil Wears Prada,” with “Little Children” looking in pretty good condition. “Notes on a Scandal” was a surprising guild omission, but it may turn the right corner for Oscar. I’ll round it out with one of the most deserving candidates in the whole field, Jason Reitman and “Thank You for Smoking.”
Also Watch Out For: “Dreamgirls”
Left Field: “The Last King of Scotland”

Best Supporting Actress: It isn’t uncommon for two actresses to show up in this category for the same movie, so Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi have enough room to stretch for their work in “Babel.” But at the same time, it’s usually a comedy that lands two ladies, so perhaps “Little Miss Sunshine”’s Abigail Breslin and Toni Collette form the duo to watch. I’m banking on the former more so than the latter at this point, and though something seems vulnerable about Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal,” I’ll stick with her as well. But does any of this matter? Jennifer Hudson is on a direct trajectory to win this award for her performance in “Dreamgirls,” right?
Also Watch Out For: Toni Collette, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Left Field: Shareeka Epps, “Half Nelson”

Best Supporting Actor: This category remains the most up-in-the-air aspect of this year’s Oscar race. So many contenders have viable shots, and really only Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” seems secure. I expect, however, that sentiment could propel Alan Arkin to a surprise win for his performance in “Little Miss Sunshine,” while likely Best Picture nominee “The Departed” will also surely contribute to the category – most likely in the form of Jack Nicholson. Jackie Earle Haley has maintained a solid precursor run for his comeback work in “Little Children,” and I expect Djimon Hounsou can round things out with his SAG nominated performance in “Blood Diamond.”
Also Watch Out For: Michael Sheen, “The Queen”
Left Field: Ben Affleck, “Hollywoodland”

Best Actress: This category really needs no analysis. Penélope Cruz (“Volver), Judi Dench (“Notes on a Scandal”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Meryl Streep (“The Devil Wears Prada”) and Kate Winslet (“Little Children”) can pretty much be taken to the bank at this point.
Also Watch Out For: Annette Bening, “Running with Scissors”
Left Field: Naomi Watts, “The Painted Veil”

Best Actor: Sigh…I still fear for Leonardo DiCaprio that he may in fact split his votes and end up with nothing. But I’m holding out a sliver of hope that his campaign for “The Departed” didn’t rev up too late to pull the right amount of votes away from his “Blood Diamond” performance. Ryan Gosling seems a fair bet for an accomplished performance in “Half Nelson,” while the real locks in the category have been Peter O’Toole (“Venus”), Will Smith (“The Pursuit of Happyness”) and Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”) for some time.
Also Watch Out For: Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat”
Left Field: Daniel Craig, “Casino Royale”

Best Director: It isn’t often that the Best Picture lineup matches the Best Director lineup 5/5, but the safe bet this year is to predict as much. Something tells me that if a lone director slides into contention, it won’t be Paul Greengrass, but rather Clint Eastwood – and for “Flags of Our Fathers,” no less. That’s right; I’m predicting a stone cold shut-out for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” But in this category, sticking with the DGA nominees doesn’t feel like a terrible idea, so put me down for Alejandro González Iñárritu (“Babel”), Martin Scorsese (“The Departed”), Bill Condon (“Dreamgirls”), Stephen Frears (“The Queen”), and the dynamic duo, Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (“Little Miss Sunshine”).
Also Watch Out For: Clint Eastwood, “Flags of Our Fathers”
Left Field: Robert Altman, “A Prairie Home Companion”

Best Picture: This race, once considered sewn up in some quarters, has turned into the most wide open race in Oscar history. I don’t think that’s an overstatement. A solid case can be made for each of the five likely nominees, which I, like the rest of the chorus, expect to be “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen.”
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “Bobby”

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

Yesterday you read a chat between "Tech Support" columnist Gerard Kennedy and myself regading predictions for the main categories, nominations set to be revealed on Tuesday morning. Today, Gerard reveals his final expectations in the tech categories - his specialty, after all. Go give them a look. You'd do well to take his perspective into your own council while hammering out predictions in preparation for Tuesday's announcement.

This is officially the most wide open race in Oscar history. Four films have won the four big precursor Best Picture awards. Apparently I'm the only guy that expected this (in however nail-biting a fashion).

To me, "Little Miss Sunshine" is the golden film story for producers if there ever was one. A film gets made on the cheap, comes from a screenwriter who spent his days in the world of script coverage and personal assistance. It goes on to to a film festival, in this case, Sundance, gets purchased for a record amount of money. The film hits the marketplace, makes back the investment and then some. Oh yeah, and you'd have to be a total ass to find beef with anyone involved with the picture.

A huge, massive congratulations to the Fox Searchlight team and to the producers of the film. This is well-deserved. I just spoke with Michael Arndt today at a Q&A, I expect to interview Jon and Val within the week. But man, this stuff, it just couldn't happen to nicer people.

By the way, the fifth likely Best Picture nominee that hasn't received a major Best Picture win? "The Queen?" It'll be the most critically acclaimed of the likely five Best Picture nominees.

Wide...open...race.

The days are waning on Phase One of the 2006-2007 film awards season. Prognosticators are shuffling to prepare final predictions, movie-goers are rushing to see the films they might have missed that may end up nominated for Academy Awards, and internet personalities talk about the whole process via instant messenger.

As In Contention certainly isn't an operation I maintain on my own, I felt it appropriate to give "Tech Support" columnist Gerard Kennedy the space for his own list of predictions in all categories. Last week we had a nice chat about the goings-on and what to expect from Tuesday's announcement, and what follows is a transcript of that chat. We tried this once before prior to the HFPA announcement, and I've been itching to do it again.

You'll find Gerard's final predictions scattered throughout, but I'm still working through the kinks on a lot of my own ponderings. So my final predictions will be held until Monday's Oscar column. But you can read between the lines of my thoughts here easily enough.

Also be sure to check back tomorrow for a special pre-nominations installment of "Tech Support," where Gerard will reveal his final predictions in the areas his has focused on throughout the season here at In Contention. Until then, enjoy the chat.

Kristopher Tapley: So with the PGA and the DGA matching up and the Best Picture line-up pretty much solidified in the eyes of most, I have to ask…are you predicting a lone director?

Gerard Kennedy: Paul Greengrass (for “United 93”), over Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris for “Little Miss Sunshine.” Though Bill Condon missing would not surprise me at all.

KT: I’m thinking a 5/5 line-up right now, but if I get rid of someone, I guess it’ll be Dayton and Faris – but that DGA nomination was both well-deserved and telling overall. I’m not sure it would be for Greengrass, though.

GK: Clint Eastwood and Robert Altman would be my other considerations. I’m very doubtful on Guillermo Del Toro and I’m not buying Alfonso Cuaron at all.

KT: I’m considering going with Eastwood, but honestly, given the reaction at the guilds, I don’t think it would be for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” If they want to recognize the double-bill achievement, I’m beginning to think they’d nominate him for “Flags of Our Fathers.”

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Picture
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
(alt: "United 93")

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"
(alt: Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris, "Little Miss Sunshine")

KT: How about Best Actor? I’m thinking I’ll stick with the staples: Leonardo DiCaprio (for “The Departed”), Ryan Gosling, Peter O’Toole, Will Smith and Forest Whitaker.

GK: Same here.

KT: It feels wrong, though. I feel like Leo could split so easily. And honestly, I have this weird feeling Daniel Craig could get in!

GK: Sacha Baron Cohen is the biggest upset possibility, but that feels so wrong.

KT: Well, I can’t imagine any actor taking that performance seriously. And he’d have gotten a SAG nod if there was any traction. They love their comedies.

GK: The SAG is what really made me think he was out, but it’s still by far the most taled about/seen performanceof the others. Aaron Eckhart would be my shocker guess.

KT: If only.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
(alt.: Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat")

KT: Well how about the easiest category to predict…ever? Best Actress. Should we bother even analyzing it?

GK: Best Actress is full of five locks, and I’m pretty conservative with the use of that term.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
(alt: Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby")

KT: Best Supporting Actor? What a cluster fuck, right? I guess Eddie Murphy is the standout, then Alan Arkin, who I think can actually contend for the win over Murphy if the campaign switches to focusing on him.

GK: Agreed.

KT: Djimon Hounsou seems pretty solid.

GK: I actually feel Jack Nicholson is more assured the nod.

KT: I don’t know, that SAG miss has me antsy on Jack. He’s actually in my #5 spot right now.

GK: It strikes me as a Maggie-Smith-in-“Gosford Park”-bizarro SAG miss.

KT: Possibly. Jackie Earle Haley rounds out my list.

GK: I’m rounding it out with Haley and Hounsou as well. Hounsou has just scored in all the right places, and Haley’s critical tally is so impressive. And it’s a great story.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
(alt.: Michael Sheen, "The Queen")

KT: Well Best Supporting Actress is pretty solid in four slots, wouldn’t you say? Jennifer Hudson, Cate Blanchett, Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi?

GK: I don’t know. I have the nagging suspicion one of the “Babel” ladies could miss, just because it would be odd for two unknowns in the same film to score. But everyone seems to love them. But yes, I’m predicting those four.

GK: My “limb” prediction is Toni Collette (in “Little Miss Sunshine”).

KT: Over Abigail Breslin?

GK: Yeah.

KT: I think I’ve got Collette at #6, but it’s a good call.

GK: She’s in the right film and seems to be a well-respected, well-liked actress, and one who has been nominated surprisingly before for a Best Picture nominee. That said, Breslin is probably the safer bet, though I doubt sag will match up 5/5 in two different categories.

KT: Well, they usually do well with the ladies regardless. Maybe both Collette and Breslin could get in, bumping one of the “Babel” ladies per your hunch? It isn’t uncommon for two nominees to come from a comedy in this category. But then, what about Breslin pulling a real shocker and getting in for lead, like Keisha Castle-Hughes in “Whale Rider.” Now THAT would get the blood flowing!

GK: Someone would have to receive a nasty snub.

KT: Well I long for some sort of excitement.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
(alt: Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine")

KT: How about Best Original Screenplay?

GK: “Babel,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen” are locked. “United 93” is the sort of critical fave that sneaks in. It’s not a script-heavy film per se, but the WGA and BAFTA nominations make me think Greengrass will score anyway.

KT: See, I disagree completely. I think the “United 93” screenplay is miraculous. It’s SO script-heavy, driven completely by dialogue – and REALISTIC dialogue. I consider it one of the most undervalued scripts of the year.

GK: Well I personally would nominate it, but despite the very tight structure, many would say “I don’t remember it for its words,” or some such nonsense. “Pan’s Labyrinth” would round out my list, though. But the fantasy gives me hesitation.

KT: I may go with “Volver” over “Pan’s.” It’s a very unique and masterful screenplay, if, at least in my view, and overrated film on the whole. “The Lives of Others” is a threat, too. And of course, “Stranger than Fiction” is lurking.

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Best...shot...of...the...year.)

GK: “Fiction” perfectly fits the mold of the WGA-but-not-Oscar nominee. I reckon a foreign entry will knock it out.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Original Screenplay
"Babel"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"The Queen"
"United 93"
(alt: "Stranger than Fiction")

KT: Well, comedies are usually the first thing to go at the WGA. Which brings me to “Thank You for Smoking” and Best Adapted Screenplay. I feel like Jason Reitman’s script is dancing on the edge, and that should not be the case. “The Devil Wears Prada” should be in the midst of a death fall, yet there it is, largely the #2 candidate behind “The Departed.” How…did…this…happen??

GK: It’s bizarre. And this category is all over the place when you think about it.

KT: I kind of thought “The Illusionist” could get in until I watched it again this week. Such a bad script.

GK: Yeah, it’s a really bad script.

KT: I’m sold on “Little Children” now, but “Notes on a Scandal” needs some help. “Children of Men” won the Scripter award, but that’s not saying a lot considering it missed out on a WGA nomination. I think “Dreamgirls” is hobbling, but it might just make it in.

GK: I feel like “The Last King of Scotland” could surprise.

KT: Me too, and talk about the one script that deserves to win the whole thing.

GK: “Notes” would be my #6, and it makes more sense on paper than “Last King,” but I think Whitaker and Peter Morgan love can push the script in there.

KT: Ballsy, kid.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"The Last King of Scotland"
"Little Children"
"Thank You for Smoking"
(alt: "Notes on a Scandal")

KT: Well this has been another refreshing bout of brain-spillage. Let’s revisit this post-nominations and see how we view the winners shaking down.

GK: Looking forward to it.

You can, as always, check out Gerard's thorough technical category analysis at "Tech Support" each and every week. And again, check back Monday for the final pre-nominations Oscar column and my personal rundown of final predictions.

Those who tuned into the Golden Globes telecast on Monday saw the usual pomp and circumstance of a Hollywood Foreign Press Association awards show. Save for that pesky clip of dramatic Best Picture nominee "Little Children" that failed to make an appearance alongside the other nominated films throughout the evening.

Yes, Jennifer Garner was supposed to waltz on stage and present the clip, but the moment was pulled from the rundown due to a bloated running time, according to a line of reasoning being fed to New Line Cinema and Bona Fide Productions.

No one at New Line went on the record here, but suffice it to say those behind the awards push for "Little Children" were upset at the decision. They did, in fact, provide Dick Clark Productions with a clip of the film, one especially chosen by director Todd Field. The excuse given to them by the production company for it's unceremonious withdrawal was that a decision had to be made as a result of the show running over schedule. One of the clips had to go.

"I was mindful of the fact that the show was running long and that our clip hadn't shown yet," said Albert Berger, one of the producers of the film with partner Ron Yerxa. "And in this case, the film hasn't gone wide yet and we were hopeful of the platform of an awards show like this to reach a larger audience. We were disappointed."

Of course, the question these circumstances begs is what criteria is used to decide which clip gets pulled? After all, the clips are shown in alphabetical order. So if it is discovered that the telecast is running over, the final clip ought to be the one to go, right? If such a course of action is indeed necessary, that is. In this case, that would have been the clip of "The Queen," which ended up taking two wins Monday night. "Little Children" took home none.

"Next year it could be my film," was the point made by an insider not connected with the film. "I just think everyone should be on a level playing film."

No one from Dick Clark Productions returned phone calls, but New Line is in a dialogue with the production company, Mr. Berger said. Perhaps something in the way of an apology is in the cards, perhaps not. But a side note of editorial, if I may:

I've worked in live television. I know these decisions are made on the fly in a tight control room by script supervisers and directors looking at a giant red clock ticking down and people scrambling to update the rundowns. I know. But there's a lot more to take into consideration in this scenario than the fact that a show is going to run over schedule, especially when the show went over schedule anyway. (Just ask the poor souls that failed to TiVo the evening news following the telecast and thereby missed the Governor hobbling out to say his catch phrase one...more...time.)

A lot of hard working people pour themselves into this job. They get to work early, they leave late and you don't know any of their names. Getting a film nominated for anything, let alone one of the most televised film awards shows in existence, is an exhausting marathon that deserves the breath of relief that is seeing that clip displayed alongside all the other nominees. To take that away from them and the filmmakers, whatever the eventual fate of their film at the awards show in question, is a bit cold-hearted - even by entertainment industry standards.

Not unexpectedly, the films topping the list of guild mentions in the pre-nominations days of this week are frontrunners for a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. Leading the way is "Babel," landing 8 mentions, missing only with the cinematographers (not the case with BAFTA) and the Visual Effects Society. Following close behind with seven guild nominations each is "Dreamgirls" and "The Queen," while "The Departed" and "Little Miss Sunshine" round up the line-up with six and five mentions respectively.

And that's the role the guilds play for prognosticators. Clearing the way and speaking up for the films that, in all likelihood, will show up at the Oscars. These are the groups that actually overlap with the AMPAS membership. They aren't critics with agendas and groupthink (though groupthink certainly comes into play). They are the people who will be voting for the big taco, and save for the Motion Picture Sound Editors, they have all spoken. (Strange that the MPSE won't be announcing until AFTER the Oscar nominations).

Gerard gave a nice rundown of what the guilds showed us the last two weeks in today's "Tech Support" column, but I'd also like to toss up a full guild list for your perusal. Check it out after the jump.

"Babel" - 8
PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG (3), ACE, ADG, CAS, CDG

"Dreamgirls" - 7
PGA, DGA, SAG (3), ACE, ADG, CAS, CDG

"The Queen" - 7
PGA, DGA, SAG (1), WGA, ACE, ADG, CDG

"The Departed" - 6
PGA, DGA, SAG (2), WGA, ACE, ADG

"Little Miss Sunshine" - 5
PGA, DGA, SAG (3), WGA, CDG

"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" - 5
ACE, ADG, CAS, CDG, VES (6)

"Casino Royale" - 4
ACE, ADG, CDG, VES (1)

"The Devil Wears Prada" - 4
WGA, SAG (1), ACE, CDG

"Blood Diamond" - 3
CAS, SAG (2), VES (1)

"Children of Men" - 3
ADG, ASC, VES (2)

"Flags of Our Fathers" - 3
ADG, CAS, VES (1)

"The Good Shepherd" - 3
ADG, ASC, VES (1)

"V for Vendetta" - 3
ADG, CDG, VES (1)

"Curse of the Golden Flower" - 2
ADG, CDG

"The Da Vinci Code" - 2
ADG, VES (2)

"The Fountain" - 2
CDG, VES (1)

"The Illusionist" - 2
ASC, CDG

"Little Children" - 2
SAG (2), WGA

"Pan's Labyrinth" - 2
ADG, CDG

"Superman Returns" - 2
ADG, VES (1)

"Thank You for Smoking" - 2
WGA, ACE

"United 93" - 2
WGA, ACE

"X-Men: The Last Stand" - 2
CDG, VES (1)

One Hit Wonders:
"Apocalypto" (ASC)
"The Black Dahlia" (ASC)
"Bobby" (SAG - 1)
"Borat" (WGA)
"Cars" (VES - 1)
"Charlotte's Web" (VES - 3)
"Eragon" (CDG)
"Happy Feet" (VES - 1)
"Marie Antoinette" (CDG)
"Mission: Impossible 3" (VES - 1)
"Monster House" (VES - 1)
"Poseidon" (VES - 1)
"The Prestige" (ADG)
"Stranger than Fiction" (WGA)

ACE = American Cinema Editors
ADG = Art Directors Guild
ASC = American Society of Cinematographers
CAS = Cinema Audio Society
CDG = Costume Desingers Guild
DGA = Directors Guild of America
PGA = Producers Guild of America
SAG = Screen Actors Guild
WGA = Writers Guild of America
VES = Visual Effects Society

Five days before the announcement of the nominees for the 79th Annual Academy Awards, the guilds have given us our clearest indications of what we can expect.

Since my last columns, the British Academy of Film and Television were joined by the chorus of the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), the Art Directors Guild (ADG), the Costume Designers Guild (CDG), the American Cinema Editors (ACE) and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) in declaring lists of nominations. These guilds are, more than any other precursor event, the most important “clue” we prognosticators get.

The nominees:

Contemporary:
"Babel," Brigitte Broch
"Casino Royale," Peter Lamont
"The Da Vinci Code," Allan Cameron
"The Departed," Kristi Zea
"The Queen," Alan Macdonald

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Huo Tingxiao
"Dreamgirls," John Myhre
"Flags of Our Fathers," Henry Bumstead
"The Good Shepehrd," Jeannine Oppewall
"The Prestige," Nathan Crowley

Fantasy:
"Children of Men," Jim Clay, Geoffrey Kirkland
"Pan's Labyrinth," Eugenio Caballero
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Rick Heinrichs
"Superman Returns," Guy Hendrix Dyas
"V for Vendetta," Owen Patterson

I was 8/15 in my predictions, and would've been 9/15 if not for the placement of "Pirates."

It's nice that the late Henry Bumstead received this recognition, and really, it might translate to an Oscar nomination for his swangsong efforts "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" (seriously - no guild love...no one has SEEN the damn thing).

The biggest omission is "Marie Antoinette," but I've suspected for a long time that it wasn't on steady ground. After all, you're gonna have pretty sets if you shoot in Versailles. How much actual DESIGN was involved?

The guild stampede continues for "Babel," with 8 mentions (to "Dreamgirls"'s 7), while "The Queen" also stays in the thick of the precursor hunt. I'm personally happy for Nathan Crowley and his wonderful work on "The Prestige," but to be honest, I have NO idea how this will shake down for Oscar.

CORRECTION: Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell were nominated for "Con Air" in 1997 without receiving a CAS nomiantion.

The nominees:

"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

I was 4/5 on my predictions. Of course, we all know "Dreamgirls" and "Pirates" were expected to show up here. I will say the inclusion of "Blood Diamond" is no shock, given the popularity of Anna Behlmer amongst her peers. I've been pointing to this film for some time as a tech-likely Oscar film, and though Eduardo Serra missed with the ASC, it looks like the "Bling BANG" of Edward Zwick's largely critically reviled effort spoke to the audio engineers enough.

"Flags of Our Fathers" finally gets some action - where expected, to be honest. I've heard from guild insiders (well - A guild insider) that the sound mixers had a lot of respect for the work on that film, and that despite great dual work, even the engineers of both "Flags" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" put their own eggs in the former basket. But it's nice that Clint Eastwood's efforts are starting to get just a little more traction (following Monday's Golden Globe win for "Letters").

Finally, yet another guild mention for "Babel" is great news for the film indeed, and well-deserved. But one might want to consider that, in the Society's 13 year history, their nominations have only lined-up 100% with the AMPAS twice. Four of the films that have been left off in the cross over were eventual Best Picture nominees, including last year's "Babel" comparison (though I still don't personally GET the comparison beyond sprawling ensemble), "Crash."

This year, if one of the Society's choices falls off, I expect it could be "Babel." Six times the replacement has been a Best Picture nominee, so there's hope for "The Departed" yet. Seven times the replacement has been an actioner with lots of noise, also boading well for "The Departed," but perhaps more so for "Apocalypto," mixed by veteran Oscar almost-champs Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell.

That is all, of course, assuming the Society didn't hit the nail on the head once again, which they may have. And seriously, given the guild approval across the board, "Babel" has slid into an interesting frontrunner position. It currently leads the field in precursor mentions that matter.

No alterations in the Oscar predictions until the final pre-nominations column on Monday, but these mentions and the rest of the week in guilds will certainly be taken into account.

(More commentary, plus the CAS press release, after the jump.)

"Tech Support" columnist Gerard Kennedy had the following to say about the announcement and how things might shake down with the Academy as a result:

It's usually 4/5, though 3/5 and 5/5 ocassionally happen. "Dreamgirls" is locked and "Flags" and "Pirates" are both looking very likely. Given the "Blood Diamond" love all around, it's probably in (I feel the mixing is the closest thing to being something exemplary about it) though Behlmer is more a guild than AMPAS fave ("X-Files," "Catch Me If You Can," "Shrek"). It's no lock.

So I think "Babel" is the more vulnerable one because it's not your stereotypically loud film and because the whole crew is unseasoned Oscar-wise. Yet it's doing so well.

But the alternates are also in trouble. It's worth noting that Millan ("World Trade Center") and O'Connell/Russell have only once been nominated for the Oscar after being snubbed here ("Con Air"). Other contenders - "Casino Royale," animated films, etc. - have obvious strikes against them, too.

I guess what I'm saying is that I ultimately expect a 4/5 lineup...though the 5/5 lineup is the safest bet because of the challenge in predicting if "Blood Diamond" or "Babel" will be snubbed and who would get in. Fleischman was admittedly at this point for "Gangs of New York" and got in over Behlmer/Nelson...so maybe "The Departed" (can get in), but it doesn't feel right to me.

And now, the full release and list of nominees from the Cinema Audio Society:

The Winners of the CAS Awards will be announced at the 43rd CAS Awards on February 17, 2007 at the Biltmore Bowl of the Millennium-Biltmore Hotel. Los Angeles. Additionally, Ed Greene, CAS will receive the CAS Career Achievement Award and Gilbert Cates will receive the CAS Filmmaker Award.

The Cinema Audio Society, a philanthropic, non-profit organization, was formed in 1964 for the purpose of sharing information with Sound Professionals in the Motion Picture and Television Industry.

CAS website: http://www.cinemaaudiosociety.org/

The Art Directors Guild and Cinema Audio Society are each dishing out nods on Thursday, and though I want to rattle off some predictions, I don't feel like going through the pomp and circumstance of last week to do so. SO, here's what I'm thinking, free of lengthy explanation:

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY (CAS) Predictions
"Apocalypto"
"Blood Diamond"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
(alt: "Casino Royale")

ART DIRECTORS GUILD (ADG) Predictions

Contemporary:
"Babel"
"Casino Royale"
"Poseidon"
"Running with Scissors"
"World Trade Center"
(alt.: "Blood Diamond")

Period:
"The Black Dahlia"
"Curse of the Golden Flower"
"Dreamgirls"
"Marie Antoinette"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
(alt.: "Flags of Our Fathers" or "Letters from Iwo Jima")

Fantasy:
"Children of Men"
"Eragon"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"Superman Returns"
"V for Vendetta"
(alt.: "The Fountain")

Will they give Henry Bumstead a mention for his swansong efforts? I'm not too sure, but we'll see. And again, I'm refraining from classification on "The Illusionist" or "The Prestige," but more than likely they'll fall under the "period" category as the former did with the Costume Designers Guild. Neil Burger's film has had a decent showing so far, so it might just turn up here on Thursday.

"Dreamgirls" got a giant boost last night in the form of a Best Picture, Comedy/Musical win at the Golden Globe awards. I filed some thoughts on the Paramount after-party late yesterday evening, but rest assured, relief was the tone of the room. While this win will fend off the attack dogs who were undoubtedly ready to pounce, the two top categories last night make it rather clear that this race is wide open.

As of right now, three films have won Best Picture at the major precursor awards shows. In all likelihood, "Little Miss Sunshine" will win Best Ensemble at the SAG awards bringing the race to four. No consensus is forming, no ending has been written. THIS is awards watching!

I gave the show a look on TiVo when I got home, and by far the most affecting speech was Forest Whitaker's, extremely appreciative, eyes darting around the room as if he'd awake from this dream at any moment. It was also a pleasure seeing Steven Spielberg take the stage with Clint Eastwood, and then later handing the Best Director trophy to Martin Scorsese. All well-deserved wins.

Alexandre Desplat's win for "The Painted Veil" (was I the only guy predicting this?) gives him ample boost toward that Oscar nod I have suspected for him ever since seeing that wonderful film, and perhaps even more added momentum for a joint nod for "The Queen." A big congratulations there. And Peter Morgan getting some love for "The Queen" makes a lot of sense, since he (along with Jeremy Brock) was responsible for bringing "The Last King of Scotland" to the screen in the form of one of the year's finest films.

Oh, and Sacha Baron Cohen never ceases to double me over with side-splitting laughter. Never.

But what can you say of an awards show so willing to be liberal across the board? It's great that the HFPA want to spread the wealth, but it also keeps the state of the race in a holding pattern. Until the DGA, PGA, SAG and other guilds start announcing winners, the entire race really feels like a free-for-all.

The Golden Globes are coming! The Golden Globes are coming!

That’s right, another turn of the season comes tonight as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (and if you ask me – everything about Hollywood is “foreign”) dish out their annual “thanks for showing up and getting wasted” trophies for best in show. Will there be an upset? Will an upset matter? Are things lining up in a predictable fashion before the Oscar nominees have even been announced? Possibly.

The big deal this week – and especially if the film loses the Best Picture Comedy/Musical award to “Little Miss Sunshine” or “Borat” – is the “Dreamgirls” dog pile. Analysts, prognosticators and columnists are beginning to sense weakness, pointing to everything from softening box office receipts to failure to capitalize on a significant Critics’ Choice Awards win last week, as indication of a change in the frontrunner wind. While reporting nuances and shifts in the Oscar season is necessary, it is also usually more indicative of groupthink falling apart when a wave like this shows itself. And groupthink should be a trap successfully avoided by journalists and awards prognosticators alike.

I’ve heard the opinion put forward recently that the press is the Dr. Frankenstein to the monster that has been the “Dreamgirls” frontrunner momentum, and to that I say bullshit. It wasn’t the press that positioned the film as an awards event as far back as February 2006, with press visits, Cannes footage and Jennifer Hudson meet-and-greets. Those events (well, the one I personally attended) were wonderful and exactly the right kind of face time needed for a thorough Oscar campaign. But there is obvious risk in putting yourself out there so soon.

Having said that, I feel the dawning “Dreamgirls” dog pile is incredibly unfair. When the media drinks the kool aid on something, the publicity machine is fed in earnest by the press, and some responsibility should be taken by those with the power of coverage. That is speaking merely to awards status, not opinion of the film; everyone has a right to like or dislike something with whatever passion they wish. But if the awards surge of “Dreamgirls” really is on the ebb, I think it would be a tad arrogant for the media to switch gears and begin playing another drumbeat with the same fervor it did on the first tune.

And now, a film could conceivably be the victim of “falling from grace,” when truthfully, even following months of hype, “grace” should have been taken out of the equation when the film screened to the media on November 15. And that’s really sad.

I basically feel the same way I did when I wrote my review two months ago:

But even still, the talk on “Dreamgirls” will continue to be the awards season. It almost seems unfortunate that there has not, and seemingly never will be, a way to distinguish the film’s personal merits (or lack thereof) from the expectations it set for itself all year long as the prohibitive awards frontrunner. Perhaps a culture of film awards discussion is to blame for that.

But I guess people like a steamroller story as much as they like an underdog story. So the beast gets fed…regardless.

Of course, all of this could be beside the point, because a “Dreamgirls” when tonight – all too possible – keeps the film right in the stream of Best Picture contention at the Oscars. And the media will, again, be forced to turn on a dime. “Wait, what had happened was.”

It’s a disease, the need to chalk up an Oscar race, to write the ending, to consider anything foregone. And it’s as detrimental to a film’s publicity as any screw-up coming out of a studio’s marketing division could ever be. That’s why “will win” is always a poor route of travel. And that’s why “frontrunner” is a status worthy of evasion when ballots haven’t even been mailed out, let alone nominees announced. I can be as guilty as the next, but predicting and proclaiming are two different things. Reporting and covering are on a whole different, higher plain of existence. Relaxing and seeing what happens? Lending due credence to any given scenario? Keeping your nose out of it? Priceless.

As we push through one more week of Phase One, we’ve got a couple more guilds set to announce. We’ll spotlight those later in the week. For now, enjoy the Globes. I’ll be somewhere in the vicinity of the Hilton, probably intoxicated, hopefully having a blast.

The updated Oscar charts:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

I certainly won't be around these parts tomorrow, so I'll go ahead with a quick look at the HFPA's Golden Globe Awards.

"The Departed" asserted itself pretty clearly for those who had doubts over the weekend as the Broadcast Film Critics Association handed the film their Best Picture and Best Director prizes. All of tomorrow's races seem to be up in the air more than any other year. Literally, three films in each Best Picture race have clear shots at taking the win.

(Predictions after the jump.)

Best Picture - Drama
"The Departed"

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Actor - Drama
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Best Actress - Drama
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat"

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"

Best Supporting Actor
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

Best Animated Feature
"Cars"

Best Foreign Language Film
"Letters from Iwo Jima"

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Best Screenplay
"Babel"

Best Original Score
"The Painted Veil"

Best Original Song
"The Song of the Heart" from "Happy Feet"

The Broadcast Film Critics Association seemed to think tonight - well - for most of the night, that the Best Picture race was between "Dreamgirls" and "Little Miss Sunshine" at the Oscars. The two films were neck and neck with four wins apiece (two performances each, screenplay and ensemble wins for the latter, song and soundtrack wins for the former). Meanwhile, other Best Pic frontrunners "Babel," (which ended the night with nothing) "The Departed" (a meager two - but the big two) and "The Queen" (one expected win for Best Actress) pretty much sat on the sidelines.

This group is known for being a rather predictive precursor, and if things go the way of the Critics' Choice in February, Martin Scorsese and his hard-boiled crime drama have an open shot at taking the crown. But more than anything, tonight ought to clear the air for anyone who's gone through the entire year huffing and puffing and making proclamations that it had been written in the stars: the 2006-2007 Oscar season is far from over.

Also, a big congratulations to the Fox Searchlight crew, who took down five wins tonight, with Forest Whitaker's Best Actor win joining the "Little Miss Sunshine" quartet. Add "Borat"'s Best Comedy Film win to the mix and I guess that's six for Century City.

As for my predictions, I went 12/19. Not bad, right?

(Full list of BFCA winners after the jump.)

Best Picture
"The Departed"

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Best Actor
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Best Actress
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Best Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

Best Acting Ensemble
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Writer
Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Animated Feature
"Cars"

Best Young Actor
Paul Dano, "Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Young Actress
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Comedy Movie
"Borat"

Best Family Film
"Charlotte's Web"

Best Picture Made for Television
"Elizabeth I"

Best Documentary Feature
"An Inconvenient Truth"

Best Foreign Language Film
"Letters from Iwo Jima"

Best Song
"Listen" from "Dreamgirls"

Best Soundtrack
"Dreamgirls"

Best Composer
Philip Glass, "The Illusionist"

Will the BFCA recognize "Letters from Iwo Jima" as an also-ran, as the guilds have been indicating? Or did the wave of voting come in in time for the group to award Clint Eastwood, like we all know they want to do? "Million Dollar Baby" was kind of left out to dry in 2004, after all. Or will "The Departed" prevail? Or - will "Dreamgirls" finally make good on that "frontrunner" status and take the big win? We'll know shortly.

And I have to say, for some reason I feel like "Little Miss Sunshine" would be the surprise Best Picture winer, if not for the comedy film category being there for the taking.

Also, I have to say - predicting the winners from an awards organization I now find myself a member of makes me feel weird and tingly all over. Here's a quick look for the hell of it:

Best Picture
"Letters from Iwo Jima"

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Best Actor
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Best Actress
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Best Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

Best Acting Ensemble
"Babel"

Best Writer
Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Animated Feature
"Happy Feet"

Best Young Actor
Jaden Christopher Syre Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"

Best Young Actress
Ivana Banquero, "Pan's Labyrinth"

Best Comedy Movie
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Family Film
"Lassie"

Best Picture Made for Television
"When the LEvees Broke"

Best Documentary Feature
"An Inconvenient Truth"

Best Foreign Language Film
"Letters from Iwo Jima"

Best Song
"Listen" from "Dreamgirls"

Best Soundtrack
"Dreamgirls"

Best Composer
Philip Glass, "The Illusionist"

As this week's guilds have come and gone, I've updated the sidebar predictions. But...I'm getting dizzy with it all, so after letting it settle over the weekend, I'll be back Monday with another column and fresh charts.

Until then, give the Gurus of Gold a look at Movie City News. Lots of slipping and sliding going on.

According to Oscarwatch, "Children of Men" has taken the Scripter award from the nominees announced just last week (gotta respect that turnaround).

The only Scripter winners to miss out on an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay were "The Hurricane" in 1999, "A Civil Action" in 1998 and "84 Charing Cross Road" in 1987.

The BAFTA Awards kind of bore me, honestly. So I'll just rattle off the nominees sans commentary. Lots of "Casino Royale," though.

FILM
BABEL - Alejandro González Iñárritu/Jon Kilik/Steve Golin
THE DEPARTED - Brad Pitt/Brad Grey/Graham King
THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND - Andrea Calderwood/Lisa Bryer/Charles Steel
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE*
THE QUEEN - Tracey Seaward/Christine Langan/Andy Harries

THE ALEXANDER KORDA AWARD
for the Outstanding British Film of the Year
CASINO ROYALE - Michael G Wilson/Barbara Broccoli/Martin Campbell/Neal Purvis/Robert Wade/Paul Haggis
THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND - Andrea Calderwood/Lisa Bryer/Charles Steel/Kevin Macdonald/Peter Morgan/Jeremy Brock
NOTES ON A SCANDAL - Scott Rudin/Robert Fox/Richard Eyre/Patrick Marber
THE QUEEN - Tracey Seaward/Christine Langan/Andy Harries/Stephen Frears/Peter Morgan
UNITED 93 - Tim Bevan/Lloyd Levin/Paul Greengrass

THE CARL FOREMAN AWARD
for Special Achievement by a British Director,
Writer or Producer in their First Feature Film
ANDREA ARNOLD (Director) - Red Road
JULIAN GILBEY (Director) - Rollin' with the Nines
CHRISTINE LANGAN (Producer) - Pierrepoint
GARY TARN (Director) - Black Sun
PAUL ANDREW WILLIAMS (Director) - London to Brighton

THE DAVID LEAN AWARD
for Achievement in Direction
BABEL - Alejandro González Iñárritu
THE DEPARTED - Martin Scorsese
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE - Jonathan Dayton/Valerie Faris
THE QUEEN - Stephen Frears
UNITED 93 - Paul Greengrass

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BABEL - Guillermo Arriaga
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE - Michael Arndt
PAN'S LABYRINTH - Guillermo del Toro
THE QUEEN - Peter Morgan
UNITED 93 - Paul Greengrass

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CASINO ROYALE - Neal Purvis/Robert Wade/Paul Haggis
THE DEPARTED - William Monahan
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA - Aline Brosh McKenna
THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND - Peter Morgan/Jeremy Brock
NOTES ON A SCANDAL - Patrick Marber

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
APOCALYPTO - Mel Gibson/Bruce Davey
BLACK BOOK (ZWARTBOEK) - Teun Hilte/San Fu Maltha/Jens Meurer/Paul Verhoeven
PAN'S LABYRINTH - Alfonso Cuarón/Bertha Navarro/Frida Torresblanco/Guillermo del Toro
RANG DE BASANTI (PAINT IT YELLOW) - Ronnie Screwvala/Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra
VOLVER - Agustín Almodóvar/Pedro Almodóvar

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
CARS - John Lasseter
FLUSHED AWAY - David Bowers/Sam Fell
HAPPY FEET - George Miller

ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
DANIEL CRAIG - Casino Royale
LEONARDO DICAPRIO - The Departed
RICHARD GRIFFITHS - The History Boys
PETER O'TOOLE - Venus
FOREST WHITAKER - The Last King of Scotland

ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
PENELOPE CRUZ - Volver
JUDI DENCH - Notes on a Scandal
HELEN MIRREN - The Queen
MERYL STREEP - The Devil Wears Prada
KATE WINSLET - Little Children

ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
ALAN ARKIN - Little Miss Sunshine
JAMES MCAVOY - The Last King of Scotland
JACK NICHOLSON - The Departed
LESLIE PHILLIPS - Venus
MICHAEL SHEEN - The Queen

ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
EMILY BLUNT - The Devil Wears Prada
ABIGAIL BRESLIN - Little Miss Sunshine
TONI COLETTE - Little Miss Sunshine
FRANCES DE LA TOUR - The History Boys
JENNIFER HUDSON - Dreamgirls

THE ANTHONY ASQUITH AWARD
for Achievement in Film Music
BABEL - Gustavo Santaolalla
CASINO ROYALE - David Arnold
DREAMGIRLS - Henry Krieger
HAPPY FEET - John Powell
THE QUEEN - Alexandre Desplat

CINEMATOGRAPHY
BABEL - Rodrigo Prieto
CASINO ROYALE - Phil Meheux
CHILDREN OF MEN - Emmanuel Lubezki
PAN'S LABYRINTH - Guillermo Navarro
UNITED 93 - Barry Ackroyd

EDITING
BABEL - Stephen Mirrione/Douglas Crise
CASINO ROYALE - Stuart Baird
THE DEPARTED - Thelma Schoonmaker
THE QUEEN - Lucia Zucchetti
UNITED 93 - Clare Douglas/Christopher Rouse/Richard Pearson

PRODUCTION DESIGN
CASINO ROYALE - Peter Lamont/Simon Wakefield
CHILDREN OF MEN - Geoffrey Kirkland/Jim Clay/Jennifer Williams
MARIE ANTOINETTE - K K Barrett/Véronique Melery
PAN'S LABYRINTH - Eugenio Caballero/Pilar Revuelta
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST - Rick Heinrichs/Cheryl A Carasik

COSTUME DESIGN
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA - Patricia Field
MARIE ANTOINETTE - Milena Canonero
PAN'S LABYRINTH - Lala Huete
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST - Penny Rose
THE QUEEN - Consolata Boyle

SOUND
BABEL - José García/Jon Taylor/Chris Minkler/Martín Hernández
CASINO ROYALE - Chris Munro/Eddy Joseph/Mike Prestwood Smith/Martin Cantwell/Mark Taylor
PAN'S LABYRINTH - Martín Hernández/Jamie Bashkt
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST - Christopher Boyes/George Watters II/ Paul Massey/Lee Orloff
UNITED 93 - Chris Munro/Mike Prestwood Smith/Douglas Cooper/Oliver Tarney/Eddy Joseph

ACHIEVEMENT IN SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
CASINO ROYALE - Steve Begg/Chris Corbould
CHILDREN OF MEN - Frazer Churchill/Tim Webber/Michael Eames/Paul Corbould
PAN'S LABYRINTH - Edward Irastorza/Everett Burrell
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST - John Knoll/Hal Hickel/Charles Gibson
SUPERMAN RETURNS - Mark Stetson

MAKE UP & HAIR
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA - Nicki Ledermann/Angel De Angelis
MARIE ANTOINETTE - Jean-Luc Russier/Desiree Corridoni
PAN'S LABYRINTH*
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST - Ve Neill/Martin Samuel
THE QUEEN - Daniel Phillips

SHORT ANIMATION FILM
DREAMS AND DESIRES - FAMILY TIES - Les Mills/Joanna Quinn
GUY 101 - Ian Gouldstone
PETER AND THE WOLF - Hugh Welchman/Alan Dewhurst/Suzie Templeton

SHORT FILM
CARE - Rachel Bailey/Corinna Faith
CUBS - Lisa Williams/Tom Harper
DO NOT ERASE - Asitha Ameresekere
HIKIKOMORI - Karley Duffy/Paul Wright
KISSING, TICKLING AND BEING BORED - David Smith/Jim McRoberts

THE ORANGE RISING STAR AWARD
EMILY BLUNT
EVA GREEN
NAOMIE HARRIS
CILLIAN MURPHY
BEN WHISHAW

The nominees:

Drama:
"Babel," Stephen Mirrione, Douglas Crise
"Casino Royale," Stuart Baird
"The Departed," Thelma Schoonmaker
"The Queen," Lucia Zuccheti
"United 93," Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse, Richard Pearson

Comedy/Musical:
"The Devil Wears Prada," Mark Livolsi
"Dreamgirls," Virginia Katz
"Little Miss Sunshine," Pamela Martin
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Craig Wood, Stephen Rivkin
"Thank You for Smoking," Dan Glauberman

Documentary:
"An Inconvenient Truth," Jay Cassidy, Dan Swietlik
"Baghdad ER," Patrick McMahon, Carrie Goldman
"When the Levees Broke: A Requiem in Four Acts, Part One," Samuel D. Pollard

I went 4/5 in each category, so not too shabby. Biggest thing: both Clint Eastwood war films get shut out. The deal has been sealed. The guilds either haven't seen "Letters from Iwo Jima" or, if they have, perhaps they are just canceling each other out in the tech fields. But Joel Cox missing here, for WAR films...wow.

Another big boost for "United 93" as the film's real shining mark has been recognized. But the big shocker has to be Stuart Baird sliding in for "Casino Royale," the film's second guild mention in as many days following hte Costume Designers Guild citing Lindy Hemming's threads. Perhaps that can translate to Oscar. It's one hell of a ride and, to my mind, the best Bond film ever made. The film has also become an interesting critical darling this season.

The only other intriguing inclusion is Dan Glauberman's work on "Thank You for Smoking," deserving indeed and emblematic of making a comedy funnier through the editing. As with "United 93," two guild mentions in as many days for Jason Reitman's biting satire.

All the Best Picture frontrunners are again present and accounted for here, so things still look like smooth sailing for all involved. None of said films has swept the guilds, given that the ASC left all Best Pic frontrunners off the list yesterday, but so far, "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine" have taken down mentions in all other fields.

One final note here. I'm very happy to see the best non-theatrical film of the year get a mention in the documentary category, Spike Lee's riveting "When the Levees Broke." It is and remains a rather definitive piece of filmmaking.

Check back in a matter of hours for the BAFTA nominations announcement.

(Full ACE press release after the jump.)

NOMINEES ANNOUNCED FOR 57TH ANNUAL ACE EDDIE AWARDS RECOGNIZING THE BEST EDITING OF THE YEAR IN FILM, TV AND DOCS

Universal City, CA, Jan. 12 – The American Cinema Editors (ACE) today announced nominations for the 57th Annual ACE Eddie Awards recognizing outstanding editing in eight categories of film, television and documentaries. Winners will be revealed during ACE’s 57th annual black-tie awards ceremony on Sunday, February 18, 2007 in the International Ballroom of the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

Nominees, as announced by the ACE Board of Directors, are as follows:

Things aren't slowing down. We've got one more group of pros set to announce tomorrow: the editors. Here's a look at the two categories:

AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS (ACE) Predictions

Drama:
"Babel," Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione
"The Departed," Thelma Schoonmaker
"Flags of Our Fathers," Joel Cox
"The Queen," Lucia Zucchetti
"United 93," Clare Douglas, Richard Pearson, Christopher Rouse
(alt.: "Bobby," Richard Chew)

Comedy/Musical:
"Cars," Ken Schretzmann
"The Devil Wears Prada," Mark Livolsi
"Dreamgirls," Virginia Katz
"Little Miss Sunshine," Pamela Martin
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Stephen E. Rivkin, Craig Wood
(alt.: "Borat," Craig Alpert, Peter Teschner, James Thomas)

This guild tends to do a good job of landing the Best Picture nominees across their feature film categories. Last year, Michael Kahn's nomination for "Munich" was a pretty good indication for that film, and this year, things aren't as dicey in the big category, so I think we can expect all the frontrunners to show up.

Sadly, I get the indication that "Stranger than Fiction"'s lack-luster box office intake will leave Matt Cheese's rather brilliant work out of the fray entirely, but I hope I'm wrong about that. Also, "Happy Feet" and Christian Gazal's efforts could be waiting to pounce, but comedy is a tough category this year, and given that Pixar has shown up consistently with the guild, I'll place my animated bets with "Cars."

Elsewhere, I guess we'll know for certain whether anyone - ANYONE - saw "Letters from Iwo Jima." Ballots were due for the ACE two days ago, so there has been ample time. But regardless, Joel Cox has "Flags of Our Fathers" to float his boat...maybe.

I'll leave you with my documentary predictions.

Documentary:
"An Inconvenient Truth," Jay Lash Cassidy, Dan Swietlik
"Deliver Us from Evil," Matthew Cooke
"The War Tapes," Steve James, Leslie Simmer

(Was out having my car serviced, hence the delay.)

The nominees:

Adapted:
"Borat," Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Mazer
"The Departed," William Monahan
"The Devil Wears Prada," Aline Brosh McKenna
"Little Children," Todd Field, Tom Perotta
"Thank You for Smoking," Jason Reitman

Original:
"Babel," Guillermo Arriaga
"Little Miss Sunshine," Michael Arndt
"The Queen," Peter Morgan
"Stranger than Fiction," Zach Helm
"United 93," Paul Greengrass

Nothing too out of the ordinary here. I mentioned nine of these scripts yesterday in my forecast, correctly predicting 7 of the eventual nominees. The only surprise is "United 93," finally showing signs of life with the guilds. I think this will carry on to an Oscar nomination for Mr. Greengrass, as the writing categories are a good spot for critical faves to turn up.

Also interesting is the category placement of "Borat," which I expected to be considered original in my predictions.

A very big congrats to Jason Reitman, who might well translate this to Academy success. But the usual casualties from WGA to AMPAS are the comedies.

Finally, "Dreamgirls," taking another massive hit (along, I suppose, with the curiously ignored "Notes on a Scandal"), still could show up as Best Picture nominees the likes of "Gladiator" and "Finding Neverland" have missed with the guild in the past.

We'll forecast the ACE later today as the guilds keep coming.

The nominees:

"Apocalypto," Dean Semler
"The Black Dahlia," Vilmos Zsigmond
"Children of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki
"The Good Shepherd," Robert Richardson
"The Illusionist," Dick Pope

Huge misstep here for "Dreamgirls," but seeing both Richardson (not terribly surprising) and Zsigmond (what a maligned film) show up here is intriguing. So much so that we can count on at least one of them showing up at the Oscars. My bet is Richardson. Zsigmond, after all, is a legend, so guild support seems about right. Replace him with "Dreamgirls" and that looks like a viable line-up.

"Babel" finally misses a beat in guild support, and poor Tom Stern. "Letters from Iwo Jima" (and "Flags of Our Fathers," for that matter) are so far showing up nil with the guilds. No one has seen the film. No one. One also has to wonder if Michael Ballhaus' receiving the lifetime achievement honor from the guild this year played into his lack of a mention for "The Departed." This is a group that appreciates wonderful camera movement, so at I'm at least a little surprised it missed here. Would have been less so with the Academy.

And I said it last night, folks. Watch out for "The Illusionist." There is a huge wave of love for that flick. Huge.

The nominees from the Costume Designers Guild are:

Contemporary:
"Babel," Michael Wilkinson
"Casino Royale," Lindy Hemming
"The Devil Wears Prada," Patricia Field
"The Queen," Consolata Boyle
"Little Miss Sunshine," Nancy Steiner
(I was 2/5)

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Chung Man Yee
"Dreamgirls," Sharen Davis
"The Illusionist," Ngila Dickson
"Marie Antoinette," Milena Canonero
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Penny Rose (?)
(I was 2/5, predicted "Pirates" in fantasy)

Fantasy:
"Eragon," Kym Barret
"The Founatin," Renee April
"V for Vendetta," Sammy Sheldon
"Pan's Labyrinth," Lala Huete
"X-Men: The Last Stand," Judianna Makovsky
(I was 3/5)

Check out the story at Variety.

More early guild support for "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine." The mention for "Dreamgirls" was expected, and perhaps, same with "The Queen." And there's lots of passion out there for "The Illusionist." Screenplay, costumes, score, etc. Watch out.

All the Oscar nominees may in fact end up being represented here. I've been sticking with "Bobby," "Curse of the Golden Flower," "Dreamgirls," "The Illusionist" and "Marie Antoinette" for a week now, but Julie Weiss might be weak, so perhaps "The Devil Wears Prada," "The Queen" or even "Pirates" can show up instead.

The writers are ALSO joining the chorus tomorrow, following on the heels of last week's USC Scripter nominations announcement. Here's a look:

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) Predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay:
"The Departed," William Monahan
"The Devil Wears Prada," Aline Brosh McKenna
"The Illusionist," Neil Burger
"Notes on a Scandal," Patrick Marber
"Thank You for Smoking," Jason Reitman
(alt.: "Little Children," Todd Field, Tom Perotta)

Best Original Screenplay:
"Babel," Guillermo Arriaga
"Borat," Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Mazer
"Little Miss Sunshine," Michael Arndt
"The Queen," Peter Morgan
"Stranger than Fiction," Zach Helm
(alt. "A Prairie Home Companion," Garrison Keillor)

If there's anything the WGA appreciates, it's comedy. This is a guild who extended nominations to films like "The 40 Year Old Virgin," "Bend it Like Beckham," "Mean Girls," and "The Station Agent" in years past. So it goes without saying that anything that tickles the funnybone - well - at least anything that does so successfully and creatively, is bound to have a leg to stand on.

The WGA also isn't the sort of group to try and predict their own category at the Oscars, let alone the eventual Best Picture line-up. Sometimes Best Picture nominees are simply left out to pasture here. You're dealing with a lot of television folks who really just want to recognize what they like the most, and more often than not, that means thinking outside the box. I applaud them for that.

Be sure to check out the ASC and CDG previews below. We'll forecast the American Cinema Editors tomorrow.

Apparently the Costume Desingers Guild is announcing nominations tomoorrow as well. That flew under my radar. Here's a quick look:

COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD (CDG) Predictions

Contemporary:
"Casino Royale," Lindy Hemming
"The Devil Wears Prada," Patricia Field
"For Your Consideration," Durinda Wood
"Miami Vice," Michael Kaplan, Janty Yates
"A Prairie Home Companion," Catherine Marie Thomas

(alt. "The Queen," Consolata Boyle)

Period:
"The Black Dahlia," Jenny Beaven
"Bobby," Julie Weiss
"Dreamgirls," Sharen Davis
"The Good German," Louise Frogley
"Marie Antoinette," Milena Canonero
(alt. "Ask the Dust," Albert Wolsky)

Fantasy:
"Eragon," Kym Barrett, Carlo Pogliotti
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Penny Rose
"Superman Returns," Louise Mingenbach
"V for Vendetta," Sammy Sheldon
"X-Men: The Last Stand," Judianna Makovsky
(alt. "The Fountain," Renée April)

This guild is pretty unpredictable. Even the most respected and multi-Oscar-nominated designers can have a rought time with the CDG. Witness vets like Sandy Powell who just don't dominate like you think they might. Ultimately, I think you're looking at a list of nominees from the sampling above, but anything from "Nacho Libre" to "The Pink Panther" could show up and catch us off guard.

I'm also predicting five nominees in each category, but either area could easily end up with only four films in contention.

A quick note on "The Illusionist" and "The Prestige": I'm 99.99% sure Ngila Dickson and/or Joan Bergin (most likely the former) will show up here and quite possibly at the Oscars for their work on those films. (Dickson also has "Blood Diamond" in play, which should be taken into consideration.) But I'm also not sure whether the guild is going to get all crazy on us and consider these two films "fantasy" films as opposed to what they are, "period" films. So, we'll see how it plays out, but for the sake of not driving myself insane, I've refrained from declaring a category prediction for either.

WGA forecast still to come...

The next wave of nominations comes tomorrow as the cinematographers, the second tech guild following the visual effects society, and the writers chime in with their perspectives. Here's a look at the ASC:

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS (ASC) Predictions
"Apocalypto," Dean Semler
"Babel," Rodrigo Prieto
"Children of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki
"The Departed," Michael Ballhaus
"Dreamgirls," Tobias A. Schliessler
(alt: "Flags of Our Fathers," Tom Stern)

I can't seem to shake the feeling that Dariusz Wolski might show up here for "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest." The work behind the camera, whatever one's opinion of the film itself, was a large step up from the original effort in 2003.

Also, Eduardo Serra seems a strong candidate to make an appearance for "Blood Diamond," despite critical assessment and despite the guild's lack of notice of his work in the past. "Blood Diamond" is a film that could tap into a surprising amount of guild support, actually, given the esteemed technicians behind the scenes. Especially in the sound mixing arena.

Instead, I'm going to go with Dean Semler's breakthrough digital lensing of "Apocalypto" as the perennial guild nominee neglected by the cinematographers' branch of the AMPAS. His (or whoever's) absense there could clear the way for either Xiaoding Zhou ("Curse of the Golden Flower") or Guillermo Navarro ("Pan's Labyrinth"), but truthfully he could find some love with the AMPAS as well. However, also potentially showing up with the guild but missing with the Academy is Tom Stern, not for "Letters from Iwo Jima," but for "Flags of Our Fathers."

Stay tuned later today for a preview of the WGA announcement.

Surprisingly, the work put into transforming Helen Mirren into Queen Elizabeth II was left off the makeup bake-off today, leaving us with an open slot in the eventual list of nominees. I expect that slot to be filled quite easily by "Pan's Labyrinth."

Here's the release (by way of Oscarwatch):

“Apocalypto”
“Click”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“The Prestige”
“The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause”
“X-Men The Last Stand”

On Saturday, January 20, the Academy’s Makeup Award Nominating Committee will view ten minutes of excerpts from each of the seven shortlisted films. Following the screenings, members will vote to nominate three films for Oscar consideration.

Nominations for the 79th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 23, 2007, at 5:30 a.m. PST in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater.

Academy Awards for outstanding film achievements of 2006 will be presented on Sunday, February 25, 2007, at the Kodak Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center®, and televised live by the ABC Television Network at 5 p.m. PST (8 p.m. EST), beginning with a half-hour arrivals segment, “The Road to the Oscars®.”

FYI, I'll be updating the predictions sidebar throughout the week as the guilds continue to chime in, but I'll be leaving the chart update until Monday as usual.

From Variety:

The Directors Guild has selected Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for "Babel," Bill Condon for "Dreamgirls," Martin Scorsese for "The Departed," Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris for "Litte Miss Sunshine" and Steven Frears for "The Queen" as nominees for its top feature directing award.

DGA president Michael Apted made the announcement Tuesday morning at guild headquarters in Hollywood. The winner, to be decided by voting among the 13,000 DGA members, will be announced Feb. 3 in ceremonies at the Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles.

The winner of the DGA award will be a front-runner for the directing Oscar. The DGA winner and the Oscar winner have matched in 52 of the last 58 years, including last year when Ang Lee won both trophies for "Brokeback Mountain."

The nominees were chosen by DGA members from over 400 eligible films with a theatrical release in 2006.

So, did anyone actually put in the screener for "Letters from Iwo Jima?" Anyone? Could the roll-out of that film's campaign have been any more sluggish? Could the passion behind this, a film that could have taken the prize for Best Picture, have been any less exsistent? I don't know, maybe getting the DVD to voters the day before they go to Tahoe or Santa Barbara or Miami or Hawaii or wherever for two weeks isn't the best thing to do for a film that deserves measured viewing and consideration.

Anyway, I think you're looking at the Best Picture line-up, folks. That really seems like all she wrote. It appears to me that the campaigns exuding some fortitude and drive are the ones being rewarded this season, Paramount Vantage/Perception PR and Fox Searchlight/ID-PR in particular, going against the odds on their films. Big congrats to all involved.

Once more, the DGA nominees are:

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"

The diligent Sasha Stone of Oscarwatch.com has polled some of the online pundits out there in cyberspace and inquired as to who they're predicting for DGA nominations tomorrow morning. Lots of hub-bub surrounding tomorrow's announcement, and with due reason. The DGA is the single best predictor of the Academy's Best Picture line-up, scoring 100% for the past four straight years.

The concensus seems to be Iñárritu, Scorsese, Condon, Eastwood, and Frears (alphabetical by film, so remember that before you lose your shit when the first two or three names are called).

Here's Sasha's chart, but go take a look at Oscarwatch where the discussion continues!

Oscarwatch's DGA Pundit Prediction Chart
In Contention's DGA Predictions and Discussion

We've got a couple of guilds announcing this week. The DGA come out swinging tomorrow, followed by the WGA and ASC on Thirsday and the ACE on Friday. Here's a look at tomorrow's DGA announcement.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) Predictions
Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"

For four years running, the DGA has predicted the eventual Best Picture nominees five for five. This year, I think the trend will change, as one of these slots is presumably up for grabs. I don't know the specific rule for the DGA, but I get the feeling Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris will be ineligible (though I realize I was wrong on this regarding the Academy's rule book). All I seem to recall is Robert Rodriguez having to resign from the guild in order to credit Frank Miller as a co-director on "Sin City," so if the DGA has issue with credits, surely that issue would carry over to their awards?

I still maintain that only one of "Babel," "Letters from Iwo Jima" and "United 93" will make it into the Best Picture lineup, and I'm betting that only two of Clint Eastwood, Paul Greengrass and Alejandro González Iñárritu get DGA nominations. The question will then become - stick with me here - which film will make it to the Best Picture finish line? Clearly I'm still banking on "Letters," but things are looking bleak. Blame it on the late entry if you want, but I'd focus things more on a lack of passion behind the campaign.

Other possibilities tomorrow include Robert Altman ("A Prairie Home Companion"), Alfonso Cuaron ("Children of Men") and Guillermo del Toro ("Pan's Labyrinth"). Though I wouldn't be on the lookout for anything too surprising (the guild has gotten more and more boring in recent years), the inclusion of, say, Mel Gibson ("Apolcalypto") would liven things up.

More tomorrow after the DGA announces, including looks at the next wave of guilds.

Did "Poseidon" just make some serious strides toward an Oscar nomination for Best Visual Effects? I think it may have. The Visual Effects Society announced its list of nominees today, and predictably, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" led the field with six mentions. But ignored completely were bake-off finalists "Eragon" and "Night at the Museum."

"Superman Returns," largely considered secure for an Oscar nod, "Casino Royale" and "X-Men: The Last Stand" only secured one nomination each, while "Charlotte's Web" and "The Fountain" joined "Pirates" in the Society's visual effects category. Neither "Web" nor "Fountain" made the Oscar bake-off.

I've had the sinking suspicion for some time now that "Poseidon" could sneak in and take a nomination. After all, "The Perfect Storm" showed up here in 2000 and there's even more going on in this film than in Petersen's last sea-faring effort.

This is when it matters. This is the buzz that counts.

Oscar polls close this Saturday and we’re pretty much riding on the buzz wave of this week and last as far as how things shake down on the 23rd. Tomorrow the DGA continues the guild parade, while the writers, cinematographers and editors will follow suit later in the week. But today, right here, right now…these are the final moments of ignorant bliss concerning how the people who make the movies, by and large, view this season. Let’s take a look at the final surges.

Universal Pictures made some giant leaps here at the final hour for “United 93,” amping up the print ad campaign somewhat and getting Paul Greengrass into town for some face time. But it’s pretty clear there is only room for one of the three somber efforts in the Best Picture hunt, and “United 93” might actually be bringing up the rear in that field.

It seemed to me that Picturehouse might have turned up the juice somewhat on “Pan’s Labyrinth,” or maybe it’s just the indication I’m getting from the film’s massive critical acclaim. That acclaim finally manifested itself as a Best Picture win over the weekend from the highbrow National Society of Film Critics. I’m starting to get the feeling that, while all eyes are turned to Paul Greengrass and Alejandro González Iñárritu for lone director positioning, Guillermo del Toro may actually jump in and secure a nod amongst the helmers. It would be a great story.

The situation surrounding Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance in “The Departed” doesn’t seem to be causing the stir it should, as far as I’m concerned. Two nominations at the SAG are great, but not when both performances are campaigned in the same category at the Oscars. Warner Bros. was in the tough position of having to split loyalties between “The Departed” and “Blood Diamond,” but the cautious plays earlier in the season, keeping Leo out of defined lead contention for Martin Scorsese’s film, made it difficult for one of the two turns to stand out and shine in the precursor season. Now, even with two nods from his guild, the guy is in jeopardy of splitting votes and allowing for Ken Watanabe or even Sacha Baron Cohen to enter the field. It’s worth considering.

The USC Scripter nominees curiously left off “Little Children,” but added steam to the campaigns of “Children of Men,” “The Devil Wears Prada” and “The Illusionist.” The latter, I’m betting, is on its way to an Oscar nomination. One of the sleeper hits of the year, “The Illusionist” is really an endearing film for many. What’s more, the film, however hackneyed, is built around a plot-driven piece of writing. Some might find its devices clever, others might not. But I’m starting to get the feeling writers will respond.

The buzz for “Babel” is deafening. SAG ensemble, PGA, the most Golden Globe nominations – it seems like a solid awards run if there ever was one. I’ve run out of reasons to bet against it. If the directors neglect Mr. Iñárritu tomorrow, however, it may be time to consider the differences between early season buzz and latter season buzz.

There isn’t much else to discuss until the guilds speak up. Next week we’ll put those pieces together as Oscar ballots begin to be counted. And two weeks from today, the last stab at predicting how this thing’s going to pan out. Until then, the charts:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

The haughty-taughty National Society of Film Critics announced their winners today, and in most cases, it's a predictable rundown. The winners:

Best Picture
"Pan's Labyrinth"

Best Director
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"

Best Actor
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Best Actress
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Best Supporting Actor
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

Best Supporting Actress
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada" and "A Prairie Home Companion"

Best Screenplay
"The Queen"

Best Cinematography
"Children of Men"

Best Experimental Film
"Inland Empire"

The biggest boost here is for Mark Wahlberg, surprisingly taking the Best Supporting Actor win away from Jackie Earle Haley. Meryl Streep gets classification in the category she's supposed to be in, and at least her wonderful work in "A Prairie Home Companion" finally got some love.

Elsewhere, Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren continue their precursor domination, while "Pan's Labyrinth" might have made a further surge into potential Best Director or Best Original Screenplay territory.

We'll be back in the thick of it with another Oscar column on Monday.

Yesterday we began a preview of the upcoming technical guild announcements with looks at the Costume Designers Guild, American Cinema Editors and Cinema Audio Society. Today we wrap up the preview with glances toward the American Society of Cinematographers and the Art Directors Guild.

Given that most of the tech races aren’t extensively covered by the precursor season, the best tea leaves we have for judgment are the guilds. It’s all for the best, really, as the guild memberships contain many of the Academy members who eventually nominate for Oscar.

The Visual Effects Society, Motion Picture Sound Editors Association and Makeup and Hairstylists Guild certainly can provide insight in their fields. However, these organizations each have many categories that do not precisely overlap with the corresponding Oscar races.

So in the interest of time and focus, I’ll concentrate on the five guilds which essentially award on the same criteria the Academy does. We’ll start with the costumers, editors and sound mixers today.

The SAG has spoken, and the big story of the morning is...

Wait. There is no big story. After yesterday's sober PGA annoucement, the Screen Actors Guild answered in kind with an equally unspectacular list of nominees. All the usual suspects are pretty much there and accounted for. There isn't even an eyebrow-raiser like last year's "Hustle & Flow" ensemble nomiantion to chew on. Considering the DGA hasn't gone out on a limb since Christopher Nolan got some props for "Memento" in 2000, I guess we're looking at a paint-by-numbers season from here on out.

And why does "Blood Diamond" keep asserting itself into this year's film awards season?

As reported yesterday, Leonardo DiCaprio was cock-blocked by handling from getting a lead nomination for "The Departed." But as Warner Bros. brass likely had hoped, he ended up with a double nod for his performances in "Blood Diamond" and "The Departed." As a result, however, Jack Nicholson was left off the supporting bill (an indicated possibility by SAG nom comm member Sam yesterday). It's all well and good that Leo gets the double-dip today, but it's left to be seen whether he splits himself to nil on the 23rd.

"Bobby"'s ensemble nod is the cast nomination without recognition elsewhere, and I guess it really shouldn't be seen as a surprise. But it would have been more interesting to see that spot go to "United 93" or "Letters from Iwo Jima" (which was predictably shut out because most SAG voters are likely just seeing the film, well, right about now).

No Sacha Baron Cohen, so now maybe that Oscar talk for the actor, which was always a bit off base, will start to slow down. No Jack, as mentioned. Gosling finally gets some more love. Arkin shows back up to the dance. And Michael Sheen seems to have fallen off the face of this year's awards race.

But enough discussing what's in front of our faces. Let's take a look at that line-up of ensembles in conjunction with the other "big" precursors. In the last ten years, there have been five films that received PGA, Golden Globe Best Picture, and SAG Ensemble nominations, but failed to receive a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. They are:

"Adaptation" (2002)
"My Big Fat Greek Wedding" (2002)
"Almost Famous" (2000)
"Billy Elliot" (2000)
"Being John Malkovich" (1999)

One drama and four comedies. Only two of those films, "Almost Famous" and "Being John Malkovich," hit the grand slam that includes a DGA nod and missed with the Academy.

This year, the films who've hit the triple are "Babel," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls," and "Little Miss Sunshine." Considering the consensus that "The Departed" is the season's shoo-in, and I guess giving "Dreamgirls" the benefit of the doubt seeing as there is no big tech movie in the mix, we have to look to "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine" for weak links, if there are any. And things look better for "Babel" in that light than they do for "Little Miss Sunshine," which is already set to miss a DGA nod.

But at the same time, "Sunshine" is one of three films that keeps getting high-mark support from Academy members, along with "The Departed" and "The Queen." I personally don't think there's any real reason to believe it's out based on its being a comedy. After all, "Adaptation" and "Being John Malkovich" weren't going to get into the Best Picture arena given the nature of the material. "Almost Famous" had the sad circumstance of being a #2 priority for Dreamworks in 2000. And "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," well...we knew that road was going to stop short with a mere screenplay mention.

"Billy Elliot" went on to grab the lone director nomination with the Academy (as did "Being John Malkovich"), and really, I think that's where Alejandro González Iñárritu might be heading. I know it seems weird for me, an adament supporter of "Babel" and its campaign, to be poo-pooing the film's Oscar chances. But, well, you've heard me give the objectivity speech before. It is, regardless, worth taking into consideration the timetable of the season.

The SAG ballots have been in voters' hands since December 1. A lot has happened since then, and this is the week that counts. Maybe screeners of "Letters from Iwo Jima" are speaking louder to Academy members this week than screenings of "Babel" were a month ago. Maybe the massive critical wave behind "United 93" has finally forced them to pop that film into their DVD players. Who knows? But at the end of the day, I think there is only one spot available for a somber, sobering cinematic experience. "Babel," "Letters" or "United," take your pick.

You know, it's worth pointing out, by the way, that Jackie Earle Haley has become the frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actor race, taking down the most citations in the category for his performance in "Little Children." Very intereting turn of events.

Oh, one last note: a huge congrats to the cast of "Deadwood," the best show to be unceremoniously pulled in quite some time.

As for predictions, I got 19 of the 25 nominees correct.

Nominees for the 13th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards:

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penélope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Best Performance by a Cast of a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Stay tuned this afternoon for Gerard's latest "Tech Support" column, the first part of a two-part guild preview.

According to a member of the Screen Actors Guild nominating committee, Leonardo DiCaprio was apparently listed in the supporting category on the lists that went out to the voting body for his performance in "The Departed." He was listed, of course, as a lead in "Blood Diamond."

Ballots went out to the SAG back on December 1, I believe, which was before the campaign finally planted a flag in the ground for this performance following lead nominations from the BFCA and HFPA. This seems like it'll just add to the confusion at the end of the day, a long, inevitable downward spiral of vote splitting and bewilderment that could in all likelihood lead to a Leo snub come January 23.

A shame.

I've adjusted my SAG predictions accordingly due to this news. Watch for DiCaprio to, perhaps, miraculously show up in the supporting category for "The Departed" tomorrow morning.

According to Sam, SAG nom com member posting in the comments section:

Well, having Leo in Supporting could hurt Jack. The ballot is a fill in the circle with a pencil mark type of thing. Dicaprio had no number to correspond with his name in the lead category for The Departed. I voted for him for supporting and completely forgot about Jack.

According to Variety:

"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"

Alright, so that's a pretty expected line-up, given the guild's recent move toward Oscar prognostication (what with that giant merger of new members a few years back). Could this be our Best Picture line-up? Possibly, but "Letters from Iwo Jima" is still very much likely as members of the Academy are just now seeing the film this week and last, given screeners going out a bit late. But this week really counts.

I'm of the mind that only one of the "somber efforts, "Babel, "Letters" and "United 93," will get in. Beyond that, I think at least three of the other films on this list are locked. We'll see where "Dreamgirls" goes with the DGA and SAG next before we hand over that "lock" status it has kind of demanded all season long.

Those are landing Friday. Sasha Stone pointed out last week that this really isn't a great year for adaptations, but I guess I'd expect the USC nods to go as follows:

"Flags of Our Fathers"
"The Last King of Scotland"
"Little Children"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"The Painted Veil"

Also possible: "Casino Royale," "Children of Men," "The Devil Wears Prada" (God help us), "Fast Food Nation," "The Good German" (hahahaha), "Infamous," "The Prestige," "Thank You for Smoking"

I've gone ahead and given the sidebar a once over before the guild glut hits us. I'll have charts back up and running next week, with a column, etc. But for now, the've been updated to your left.

You didn't think we'd get away with a holiday slumber much longer, did you? No, tomorrow, the Producers and Actors launch the guild season off as they announce their nominees in varrying categories.

The guilds are really the precursors to watch, as these groups include many of the members who end up voting for the Academy Award nominees later in the month. There is always a tell in the mix, indicating a rise or lack of support for this film or that.

Let's start things off with a look at what the SAG ought to have in store.

(Predictions after the jump.)

The SAG can tip us off to any number of lurking possibilities that might have otherwise gone undetected. Ethan Hawke, for example, wasn't on ANYONE'S radar in 2001 for his supporting turn opposite eventual Oscar victor Denzel Washington until he popped up in the SAG nominations. Likewise, Amy Adams was considered merely a dark horse possibility until the guild showed their cards last year and nominated her "Junebug" performance.

I'm heading out on a limb for my picks in this race. I'm thinking a shut-out for "Letters from Iwo Jima" could occur, given the lateness of the entry and how far back balloting went down for the SAG, but who knows. They tend to do better with the ladies' categories, so look for them to hit either Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress on the head as far as eventual Oscar nominees are concerned.

Here's how I think things might shake down with the actors this year:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

(alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond," Ken Watanabe, "Letters from Iwo Jima")

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penélope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

(alternates: Annette Bening, "Running with Scissors," Beyoncé Knowles, "Dreamgirls")

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
(This Category is driving me insane.)
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
Stanley Tucci, "The Devil Wears Prada"

(alternates - ALL of 'em: Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland," Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed," Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond," Michael Sheen, "The Queen," Jaden Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness," Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed")

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
Catherine O'Hara, "For Your Consideration"

(alternates: Adriana Barraza, "Babel," Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal," Shareeka Epps, "Half Nelson," Emma Thompson, "Stranger than Fiction")

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"

(alternates: "Bobby," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "The Queen")

The PGA, meanwhile, has quickly established itself as a decent predictor of the eventual Academy Best Picture shortlist. But they also seem to respect the alnighty dollar, which explains "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" showing up alongside "Shrek" in 2001. So don't rule out "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" popping up here, being only the third film to crack $1 billion worldwide.

I'm going with the following:

"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

Other possibilities: "An Inconvenient Truth," "The Devil Wears Prada," "Flags of Our Fathers," "The Queen"

You know, I feel like a total tool for leaving "Smokin' Aces" off yesterday's Most Anticipated films list. "Narc" was far and away one of the best films of 2002, and Carnahan walking off "Mission: Impossible 3" is one of the coolest moves, like, ever. His latest looks like a total adrenaline rush, and I'm so there. So, yaeh, that flick would place high in the top five, FWIW.

2007 is here and with it, the hope for a year’s worth of enjoyable cinematic offerings. I write this column every year, offering up a healthy list of films I just can’t wait to see. And every year, I’m disappointed by any given number of my personal anticipations. But without the disappointments, there wouldn’t be surprises. So while I look forward to each and every one of these 25 titles, I also look forward to being pleasantly surprised by something in the darkened intimacy of a modestly-filled screening room or the electrified community of a crowded weekend theater.

10. “Reign Over Me”
Something in the trailer for Mike Binder’s latest had me from the start. What will perhaps prove to be the most lingering 9/11-inspired cinematic effort yet, “Reign Over Me” looks to exist in the introspective, sentimental but realistic vein of Anthony Minghella’s “Breaking and Entering.” Don Cheadle and Adam Sandler look aces as former college buddies brought together after Sandler’s wife and kid die in one of the plane crashes, and really the whole experience looks to be both meditative and inspiring. Binder is one of the subtlest filmmakers working today.

9. “My Blueberry Nights”
I’m not a huge fan of Wong Kar Wai cinema, but there is something about “My Blueberry Nights” that is calling my name. Tapping musician Norah Jones for the lead role in this sprawling tale of self-discovery, the revered director is finally turning his vision toward the American cinema. Jude Law, David Strathairn, Tim Roth and Natalie Portman will join Jones in an ensemble that should be one of the more interesting group performances of the year.

8. “There Will Be Blood”
God bless Paul Thomas Anderson for taking his sweet time in between projects. He likes to be sure. The combination of “Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia” and “Punch-Drunk Love” made for the promise of a brilliant new filmmaking talent. I wasn’t much for “Hard Eight,” but even that debut was more gripping and full of vibrant ideas than most. “There Will Be Blood” marks P.T.A.’s first adaptation, also refreshing considering it proves he isn’t stuck in autopilot – his ideas, his way or the highway. Based on Upton Sinclair’s “Oil!,” it looks to be a great ensemble opportunity (of course) and to draw striking parallels to the money-hungry leaders of today’s world.

7. “Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End”
After the thrilling climax of last summer’s “Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man’s Chest,” how can you not be stoked to see how they wrap this thing up? On top of which, Jerry Bruckheimer is preparing a fourth installment? Really?? Is it his goal to melt movie screens with popcorn resilience or something? Well he’s on the right track, and I’m so happy there is something this visually extraordinary finding its way into the film market place. I love a good run for box office records, too, no matter what the film. So here’s hoping $500 million isn’t too high a ceiling for the latest adventures of Will Turner and Captain Jack Sparrow!

6. “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
A year ago this film was much higher on this list. The appeal has worn off slightly, but being a western fan through and through (see #1 on this list), I still can’t wait to see what Andrew Dominik has done with Ron Hanssen’s Shakespearean take on this relationship. When I spoke to director Kevin Macdonald back in September, he had just come from a rough cut screening of the film and thought it quite an accomplishment. That was the first time I’d heard someone describe it as “a Terrence Malick western,” and as we get closer and closer to a final cut (who knows if Warner Bros. will let it go out into the marketplace approaching 180s minute), I can feel the hair standing on the back of my neck. This will also be one of three opportunities for cinematographer Roger Deakins to finally score an Oscar for his always accomplished efforts. I think this is his year, but how often have we said that before?

5. “Spider-Man 3”
How can this film not be apparent on any cineaste’s list of anticipations for 2007? Premiere magazine did a cover story on the film last month that got me even more jazzed, as I read about director Sam Raimi’s vision of putting the viewer in the air with Spidey through further visual effects ingenuity. Not to mention the popcorn-chomping excitement in store with action sequences involving Sandman (portrayed by Thomas Haden Church) and the new Goblin (the ever resilient James Franco). Add to that Venom showing up on the scene, Bryce Dallas Howard in full-blown-blonde-hottie mode as Gwen Stacy…geeks everywhere will be swaying back and forth in the seat with excitement. This one included.

4. “Beowulf”
Not many directors have a passion for pushing the filmmaking medium like Robert Zemeckis. The director’s entire career has been built upon putting hings on screen we never thought we’d see. Tackling one of the most epic storues ever told, Zemeckis has cast Ray Winstone in the title role in “Beowulf,” what promises to be a dazzling film experience to say the least. Beyond the awe-inspiring wonder Zemeckis surely has in store in the realm of visual effects, I’m most looking forward to Crispin Glover’s depiction of Grendel, what could be a stroke of casting brilliance or a train wreck waiting to happen.

3. “Sweeney Todd”
Tim Burton and Paramount Pictures put the film adaptation of Steven Sondheim’s “Sweeney Todd” on the fast track after the director’s “Believe It or Not” fell apart earlier in 2006. Six months later, things are moving along nicely as the film is set to be the studio’s big awards hopeful for this year. Sticking with muses Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham Carter (also Mrs. Burton) in the story’s meatiest roles, the director has yet another opportunity to give audiences a visual feast. A who’s who of technical crew talent is at his disposal, and beyond costume designer Colleen Atwood, they aren’t the usual Burton suspects, which should make for a unique project all around. Sacha Baron Cohen and Alan Rickman will also take roles.

2. “The Bourne Ultimatum”
Paul Greengrass, God bless him, is all set to wrap up the Jason Bourne trilogy with this final installment in the series. Coming off of the best years of his early career in “United 93,” I think it’s great he is willing to stay in sequel territory when he could likely write his own creative check at this point. One only wishes he could have been on board from the start. Greengrass is one of the most promising directors of his generation, and Matt Damon has turned into a capable actor no matter what the material. If “Ultimatum” comes in even within an inch of “The Bourne Supremacy”’s shadow, we’re all in for one hell of a treat, and a likely pulse-thumping actioner.

1. “No Country for Old Men”
No film has piqued my interest this year like the Joel and Ethan Coen’s adaptation of Cormic McCarthy’s “No Country for Old Men.” “The Proposition” promised the cinematic exposure to the McCarthy western mindset, but to my mind it was too stylized to become anything of a real character analysis. This year we’ll get a true dissection of McCarthy’s violent cowboy narrative (and we’ll see how much of the violence the brothers Coen allow into their depiction). Tommy Lee Jones will has a hell of a year ahead, and while his performance in “No Country for Old Men” might come to simply buttress his work in Paul Haggis’s awards hopeful “In the Valley of Elah,” I hope it finds room to breathe on its own. Josh Brolin and Woody Harrelson will join Jones in an ensemble that might end up blown off the screen by a potentially vicious and terrifying turn from Javier Bardem.

Other anticipations of note:

Classic Filmmakers Doing Their Thing
“American Gangster” (Ridley Scott)
“Rescue Dawn” (Werner Herzog)
“Youth Without Youth” (Francis Ford Coppola)
“Zodiac” (David Fincher)

Comedies Looking Up
“The Bucket List” (Rob Reiner)
“The Darjeeling Limited” (Wes Anderson)
“Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium” (Zach Helm)

Films Showcasing (Hopefully) Strong Central Performances
“The Golden Age” (Shekhar Kapur)
“Michael Clayton” (Tony Gilroy)
“Sicko” (Michael Moore – okay, stretching a bit to include this one but Moore “performs” with the best of them)
“The Walker” (Paul Schrader)

Eye Candy and Popcorn Goodies
“300” (Zack Snyder)
“Transformers” (Michael Bay)
“Sin City 2” (Frank Miller, Robert Rodriguez)
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” (Kevin Munroe)