Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

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« Golden Globes Forecast… | Main | What did the Globes tell … »

Building the Perfect Beast

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The Golden Globes are coming! The Golden Globes are coming!


That’s right, another turn of the season comes tonight as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (and if you ask me – everything about Hollywood is “foreign”) dish out their annual “thanks for showing up and getting wasted” trophies for best in show. Will there be an upset? Will an upset matter? Are things lining up in a predictable fashion before the Oscar nominees have even been announced? Possibly.


The big deal this week – and especially if the film loses the Best Picture Comedy/Musical award to “Little Miss Sunshine” or “Borat” – is the “Dreamgirls” dog pile. Analysts, prognosticators and columnists are beginning to sense weakness, pointing to everything from softening box office receipts to failure to capitalize on a significant Critics’ Choice Awards win last week, as indication of a change in the frontrunner wind. While reporting nuances and shifts in the Oscar season is necessary, it is also usually more indicative of groupthink falling apart when a wave like this shows itself. And groupthink should be a trap successfully avoided by journalists and awards prognosticators alike.

I’ve heard the opinion put forward recently that the press is the Dr. Frankenstein to the monster that has been the “Dreamgirls” frontrunner momentum, and to that I say bullshit. It wasn’t the press that positioned the film as an awards event as far back as February 2006, with press visits, Cannes footage and Jennifer Hudson meet-and-greets. Those events (well, the one I personally attended) were wonderful and exactly the right kind of face time needed for a thorough Oscar campaign. But there is obvious risk in putting yourself out there so soon.


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Having said that, I feel the dawning “Dreamgirls” dog pile is incredibly unfair. When the media drinks the kool aid on something, the publicity machine is fed in earnest by the press, and some responsibility should be taken by those with the power of coverage. That is speaking merely to awards status, not opinion of the film; everyone has a right to like or dislike something with whatever passion they wish. But if the awards surge of “Dreamgirls” really is on the ebb, I think it would be a tad arrogant for the media to switch gears and begin playing another drumbeat with the same fervor it did on the first tune.


And now, a film could conceivably be the victim of “falling from grace,” when truthfully, even following months of hype, “grace” should have been taken out of the equation when the film screened to the media on November 15. And that’s really sad.


I basically feel the same way I did when I wrote my review two months ago:


But even still, the talk on “Dreamgirls” will continue to be the awards season. It almost seems unfortunate that there has not, and seemingly never will be, a way to distinguish the film’s personal merits (or lack thereof) from the expectations it set for itself all year long as the prohibitive awards frontrunner. Perhaps a culture of film awards discussion is to blame for that.


But I guess people like a steamroller story as much as they like an underdog story. So the beast gets fed…regardless.


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Of course, all of this could be beside the point, because a “Dreamgirls” when tonight – all too possible – keeps the film right in the stream of Best Picture contention at the Oscars. And the media will, again, be forced to turn on a dime. “Wait, what had happened was.”


It’s a disease, the need to chalk up an Oscar race, to write the ending, to consider anything foregone. And it’s as detrimental to a film’s publicity as any screw-up coming out of a studio’s marketing division could ever be. That’s why “will win” is always a poor route of travel. And that’s why “frontrunner” is a status worthy of evasion when ballots haven’t even been mailed out, let alone nominees announced. I can be as guilty as the next, but predicting and proclaiming are two different things. Reporting and covering are on a whole different, higher plain of existence. Relaxing and seeing what happens? Lending due credence to any given scenario? Keeping your nose out of it? Priceless.


As we push through one more week of Phase One, we’ve got a couple more guilds set to announce. We’ll spotlight those later in the week. For now, enjoy the Globes. I’ll be somewhere in the vicinity of the Hilton, probably intoxicated, hopefully having a blast.


The updated Oscar charts:


Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive




Previous Oscar Columns:
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

Comments

So are these your final predictions Kris?

No. One more chart next week.

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2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon