Those are our Best Picture nominees...damn that DGA knows how to predict (Babel is LOCKED now, by the way).

Clint may very well be dead. Though I suppose he could get in over either Dayton/Faris or Condon, at the Oscars. But Greengrass, Del Toro and Cuaron traditionally fit the mould of the sort who accomplish that.

well Babel & Little Miss Sunshine are locked...

but what about directing... I'm still thinking Guillermo del Toro or Alfonso Cuaron could surprise... but I'm saying Eastwood instead of the duo...

It's foolish at this point to think Dayton and Faris are weak in the directing field at the Academy. Any consideration given to Cuaron, Del Toro, Eastwood and Greengrass is baseless and perhaps wishful thinking right now, I think. It really might just be another boring 5/5 year.

And hey, congrats to the precursors. They finally got the formula down for perfect prognostication, long before us "pros" found what worked!

It's rare that the PGA and DGA are this solidified, isn't it? I don't recall any times (in more modern years) that they have matched EACH OTHER, as opposed to the Oscars. But I kind of knew Eastwood would get snubbed. I was a bit scared to bluntly accept it, for fear of jinxing it.

But I do agree with Kennedy. If ANYONE has the potential to upset Condon or Team LMS, it's Greengrass, followed by Del Toro, Cuaron, and maybe a penultimate Altman tribute.

I don't think there's any reason to think Condon or Dayton/Faris are weak with the Academy at this point. Both films appeal quite strongly to Oscar voters.

I see Greengrass as a distant 6th, which is a shame.

"a film that could have taken the prize for Best Picture" I think a win would be unlikely in any year, strong or weak, with or without Harvey or a more ideal release pattern. It's just not the sort of film non-critics embrace.

I think the films most hurt by late releases are Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth, either one of which could have built a Crouching Tiger sort of consensus because they are the sort of film non-critics embrace, even as they're challenging, they're appealing and satisfying.

Children of Men was originally supposed to release in October, right? why didn't they stick with that release for a limited run until the holidays and open wide, rather than a two week limited run and a wide opening. How are you supposed to build consensus or word of mouth, or even awareness of the movie with such a short window? Dreamgirls did it with their ridiculous but effective exclusive engagements. Last year, Spielberg did it because he's Spielberg, and Brokeback did it because it hit a cultural zeitgeist of awareness.

There doesn't seem to be much room left in the season for limited engagement films.

movielocke, the answer the the Children of Men question is money. The film would have been buried by the Oscar season. Believe it or not, opening in late December gets the studio out from underneath the Oscar onslaught of films, and it had a better chance to make money.

And I disagree with you completely on Letters. A passionate, smart campaign would have taken the Best Picture win walking away.

As for all the lone director talk, even Greengrass is wishful thinking, folks. He's got some critical notices, but that's it. The film is dead, because no one, apparently besides critics, saw it.

If anyone of the potential "lone directors" has a shot, it's still Eastwood, who at least has that Golden Globe nod to show for himself. But even then, who gets left off? If anyone is weak, I'd say it's Condon, not Dayton/Faris. So I think I'll just be predicting 5/5 until the end on this one.

But Altman showing up would not surprise me in the slightest...

I forgot to mention Altman as well; he's a real threat.

What a disaster for Eastwood. I would have nominated him just out of respect. But I still somehow think Eastwood has the potential to get nominated and even beat Scorcese. And Scorcese can join the ranks of Alfred Hitchcock and Stanley Kubrick.

For the Best Picture thing, I would prefer both Letters From Iwo Jima and The Queen over The Departed. But it seems an unlikely possibility.

"I would have nominated him just out of respect."

And that's why certain branches of the Academy are idiots.

Very surprising to not see Eastwood on there. Very suprised indeed.

I still just don't think the LMS crew can make it. I expect the high brow Academy, who don't generally give comedy the time of day, to wonder why it takes two people to make a road trip comedy.

"I would have nominated him just out of respect."

Look at his staggering achievement this year. He made movies uncompromisingly showing 2 sides of a war, a first in cinema history and managed to come up with a balanced and non-judgemental point of view.
This definitely deserves some recognition.

I'd love to see Greengrass break in...crazy to see DGA and PGA line up so perfectly.

blah!

--RC of strangeculture.blogspot.com