Guilds on Approach: SAG/PGA
You didn't think we'd get away with a holiday slumber much longer, did you? No, tomorrow, the Producers and Actors launch the guild season off as they announce their nominees in varrying categories.
The guilds are really the precursors to watch, as these groups include many of the members who end up voting for the Academy Award nominees later in the month. There is always a tell in the mix, indicating a rise or lack of support for this film or that.
Let's start things off with a look at what the SAG ought to have in store.
(Predictions after the jump.)
The SAG can tip us off to any number of lurking possibilities that might have otherwise gone undetected. Ethan Hawke, for example, wasn't on ANYONE'S radar in 2001 for his supporting turn opposite eventual Oscar victor Denzel Washington until he popped up in the SAG nominations. Likewise, Amy Adams was considered merely a dark horse possibility until the guild showed their cards last year and nominated her "Junebug" performance.
I'm heading out on a limb for my picks in this race. I'm thinking a shut-out for "Letters from Iwo Jima" could occur, given the lateness of the entry and how far back balloting went down for the SAG, but who knows. They tend to do better with the ladies' categories, so look for them to hit either Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress on the head as far as eventual Oscar nominees are concerned.
Here's how I think things might shake down with the actors this year:
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
(alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond," Ken Watanabe, "Letters from Iwo Jima")
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penélope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
(alternates: Annette Bening, "Running with Scissors," Beyoncé Knowles, "Dreamgirls")
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
(This Category is driving me insane.)
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
Stanley Tucci, "The Devil Wears Prada"
(alternates - ALL of 'em: Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland," Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed," Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond," Michael Sheen, "The Queen," Jaden Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness," Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed")
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
Catherine O'Hara, "For Your Consideration"
(alternates: Adriana Barraza, "Babel," Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal," Shareeka Epps, "Half Nelson," Emma Thompson, "Stranger than Fiction")
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
(alternates: "Bobby," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "The Queen")
The PGA, meanwhile, has quickly established itself as a decent predictor of the eventual Academy Best Picture shortlist. But they also seem to respect the alnighty dollar, which explains "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" showing up alongside "Shrek" in 2001. So don't rule out "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" popping up here, being only the third film to crack $1 billion worldwide.
I'm going with the following:
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Other possibilities: "An Inconvenient Truth," "The Devil Wears Prada," "Flags of Our Fathers," "The Queen"
Comments
No Cate Blanchett for "Notes on a Scandal"?
Posted by: Beau![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 2, 2007 09:19 PM
If SAG really falls for Prada that much you know you're gonna have to put Blunt (Or Tucci) in your predictions, right? But a Prada surprise is certainly possible.
As for SAG, I don't see them going for Pirates simply because it made a lot of money. After all, they did go for The Incredibles over Shrek 2 when the latter made much, much more. I think Prada, Borat and maybe even Casino Royale are more likely.
Posted by: Positive Jon![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 2, 2007 09:25 PM
I think Inside Man can get a surpise Cast Nomation as while.
Posted by: Paul8148![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 07:56 AM
Just wanted you to know that I am a SAG nom com and DiCaprio was only listed in supporting for The Departed. He was in lead for Blood Diamond, and supporting for The Departed.
I am not sure why because it seems that will only lead to more confusion.
Posted by: Sam![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 09:07 AM
And Babel continues to be left off your lists when you gave it a 4 star review! What's up with that, Kris? Trust your gut. Babel shouldnt be ignored!
Posted by: Mongoose![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 11:40 AM
Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children?
Posted by: Ladymerlin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 01:49 PM
Yeah, should've included him, Lady, but I'll just stay out on a limb.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 01:57 PM
Heh, you have no faith in anything you love.
Anyway, those PGA noms weren't too surprising, though you were indelibly off the mark with Pirates. It would've made more sense if this were "Curse of the Black Pearl". But seeing as how reviews were tepid as hell for the sequel, that would never happen. And proven so.
As for SAG, I think there's a little TOO much Prada love. Blunt seems quite likely, but Ensemble AND Tucci? Especially when all The Departed men are supporting (albeit, you just learned this)? Not to mention Sheen, critical darling Haley, and comeback man Affleck? I think Wahlberg is still a force to be reckoned with, but, at least with SAG, he might cancel himself out if some want Leo to get dual noms.
Anyway, I agree completely on Actor and Actress, especially since Gosling has that type of actorly role SAG tends to go for. He seems like this year's Adams: Indie breakout star who missed a Globe nom but resurged on SAG love. However, I can totally see one actress missing out in favor of Gyllenhaal for Sherrybaby. She could be this year's Howard and get a supporting nom, but I think at this point, she might either get more love than Streep or she'll sneak in at the Oscars.
Supporting-wise, I'm debating whether they'll dig Breslin or sway toward Epps. Or maybe both will miss out if The Departed has a lot of love and Farmiga sneaks in. I'd love that.
And Ensemble...I still think Babel is something they'd go for. Probably the most likely to be snubbed though. Either way, The Queen seems like a lock. It has the Capote-factor: performance-of-the-year and biopic-of-the-year. I can't imagine it being snubbed there. Babel is most likely to miss out, if something like Little Children gets a Hustle & Flow-type nomination. Or maybe that will be Prada after all. Hm.
Posted by: Cinemaniac![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 03:33 PM
The queen was not a perfect ensemble, let's face it. James Cromwell, who I love, was well off the mark and the guy playing Prince Charles was just wrong. I'd rather vote for a solid ensemble than the best film. That means everyone who is credited must be kicking.
I don't think Little Miss Sunshine was one of the top five films, but you can't argue with that ensmble.
Also, please, please tell me I am not the only one who found Prada laughably bad. My teenage daughter and I were laughing at the lameness of this movie. Believe me I am target audience for that film too! 40 something woman. Prada is worthy of Razzies really.
Streep is always brilliant, but there are much better performances this year.
I absolutely went for Maggie Gyllenhaal over Streep. Hers is a knock out performance!
Posted by: Sam![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 05:51 PM
Didn't say it earlier, but thanks for the tip on this, Sam.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 3, 2007 08:22 PM
As for Kazunari Ninomiya, one should be truly involved in a prize -- is there nothing?
It is very regrettable.
Posted by: durara![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 4, 2007 03:09 AM