Making It Count
This is when it matters. This is the buzz that counts.
Oscar polls close this Saturday and we’re pretty much riding on the buzz wave of this week and last as far as how things shake down on the 23rd. Tomorrow the DGA continues the guild parade, while the writers, cinematographers and editors will follow suit later in the week. But today, right here, right now…these are the final moments of ignorant bliss concerning how the people who make the movies, by and large, view this season. Let’s take a look at the final surges.
Universal Pictures made some giant leaps here at the final hour for “United 93,” amping up the print ad campaign somewhat and getting Paul Greengrass into town for some face time. But it’s pretty clear there is only room for one of the three somber efforts in the Best Picture hunt, and “United 93” might actually be bringing up the rear in that field.
It seemed to me that Picturehouse might have turned up the juice somewhat on “Pan’s Labyrinth,” or maybe it’s just the indication I’m getting from the film’s massive critical acclaim. That acclaim finally manifested itself as a Best Picture win over the weekend from the highbrow National Society of Film Critics. I’m starting to get the feeling that, while all eyes are turned to Paul Greengrass and Alejandro González Iñárritu for lone director positioning, Guillermo del Toro may actually jump in and secure a nod amongst the helmers. It would be a great story.
The situation surrounding Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance in “The Departed” doesn’t seem to be causing the stir it should, as far as I’m concerned. Two nominations at the SAG are great, but not when both performances are campaigned in the same category at the Oscars. Warner Bros. was in the tough position of having to split loyalties between “The Departed” and “Blood Diamond,” but the cautious plays earlier in the season, keeping Leo out of defined lead contention for Martin Scorsese’s film, made it difficult for one of the two turns to stand out and shine in the precursor season. Now, even with two nods from his guild, the guy is in jeopardy of splitting votes and allowing for Ken Watanabe or even Sacha Baron Cohen to enter the field. It’s worth considering.
The USC Scripter nominees curiously left off “Little Children,” but added steam to the campaigns of “Children of Men,” “The Devil Wears Prada” and “The Illusionist.” The latter, I’m betting, is on its way to an Oscar nomination. One of the sleeper hits of the year, “The Illusionist” is really an endearing film for many. What’s more, the film, however hackneyed, is built around a plot-driven piece of writing. Some might find its devices clever, others might not. But I’m starting to get the feeling writers will respond.
The buzz for “Babel” is deafening. SAG ensemble, PGA, the most Golden Globe nominations – it seems like a solid awards run if there ever was one. I’ve run out of reasons to bet against it. If the directors neglect Mr. Iñárritu tomorrow, however, it may be time to consider the differences between early season buzz and latter season buzz.
There isn’t much else to discuss until the guilds speak up. Next week we’ll put those pieces together as Oscar ballots begin to be counted. And two weeks from today, the last stab at predicting how this thing’s going to pan out. Until then, the charts:
Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive
Previous Oscar Columns:
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"
Comments
Kris, I think you're greatly underestimating United 93 and overestimating Pan's Labyrinth after the win with the NSFC yesterday. I don't think there is any way that United 93 gets completely snubbed in the major categories, NO WAY. It is going to get nominated for Best Director, and I think that the DGA and BAFTA nominations will change your mind on this. Speaking of DGAs, you keep saying tomorrow they're coming. I thought they day was tuesday, where are you getting tomorrow from?
Posted by: mike![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 7, 2007 07:07 PM
This is a Monday posting. They are coming Tuesday, I just put it up a few hours early.
And we'll see what the DGA says. I'm steering clear of any sort of consensus for the next couple of weeks, because we all too easily fall into traps that way.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 7, 2007 07:57 PM
I'm afraid right now, I mean is great that Del Toro, Inarritu & Cuaron are all considered as potential nominees but what if they cancel each other! that would be so sad...
and I'm still not buying the Little Miss Sunshine buzz even though I LOVED the film...
what do you think about the Children of Men FYC video the fans made and is becoming quite popular on the web?
Posted by: CarlinhosBrown![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 7, 2007 08:47 PM
I think the FYC thing is great. It's always great to see passion like that.
And disregard Little Miss Sunshine buzz at your own peril. This town is in love with that film. Rounds of applause during just a ten minute clip today at a writers' panel including Arndt, Jason Reitman, James L. Brooks, Aline whatshernamewhowrotedevilwearsprada and Nancy Meyers were pretty serious as well.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 7, 2007 09:38 PM
I know you didn't like Devil wears Prada, Kris, but the film is a showcase for costumes, as much as Marie Antoinette. Patricia Field will be nominated.
I like your other predictions, thanks for all the hard work and going the extra mile covering the tech races as well.
Posted by: movielocke![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 7, 2007 11:09 PM
I wouldn't be so sure. Showcase or not (and that's actually incredibly arguable), the branch doesn't embrace contemporary films. Whether they're actually about the threads or not.
I'll extend your kind words to Gerard. He puts a lot of work into "Tech Support."
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 12:37 AM
Well, thank you, Kris.
I wouldn't be too worried about DiCaprio. Cohen obviously has major strikes against him, I'm doubtful there's enough love for LFIJ to get Watanabe in without any precursor attention whatsoever and Gosling is no lock either.
All things considered, I'd be surprised if Leo missed.
And I wouldn't read too much in the Scripter nods; with BFCA and HFPA already behind it, "Little Children" still strikes me as a very good bet for its screenplay.
Posted by: Gerard Kennedy![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 06:05 AM
I'm starting to think that there might be a repeat of the David Lynch/Ridley Scott situation. The focus on The Queen seems to be every category except directing, so maybe Greegrass and either del Toro or Inarriutu could take the place of The Queen and Little Miss Sunshine.
Posted by: Jamie![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 08:37 AM
There are some respected people on that Scripter board, Gerard. Robert Towne, for instance. There is spill-over, and really, who likes that film outside of critics?
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 12:10 PM
It plays very much like a literary piece as far as I'm concerned (for chrissakes, it reads to us), Perotta is very respected and it's the perfect opportunity to throw a bone to Field.
I don't think it's locked (hate that term) but assuming it gets a WGA nod, I'd certainly say it's very solid.
Posted by: Gerard Kennedy![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 02:08 PM