Best Visual Effects: The bake-off list narrowed this category down for us somewhat, leaving the two locks present and accounted for: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Superman Returns.” Beyond that, you can really expect pretty much any of the contenders to show up. Despite a weak box office showing and a critical thrashing, I’m going to go with “Poseidon” in the final position.
Also Watch Out For: “X-Men: The Last Stand”
Left Field: “Casino Royale”

Best Sound Editing: The Motion Picture Sound Editors sadly will be revealing their nominees after the Academy’s announcement, so we really have no precursor to look to in this category. I’m still pretty solid on “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Cars,” and I figure “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Superman Returns” can slide into position easily enough. Given that the fifth slot seems so up in the air (and this is the first year the category has widened to five nominees), I’m thinking something like “Poseidon” can actually show up. They love their water movies.
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Happy Feet”

Best Sound Mixing: The Cinema Audio Society really cleared things up in this category last week, and their list of nominees seems safe enough to me. The Society doesn’t often line up 100% with the Academy, but I honestly don’t know what film(s) to count out and what the replacement(s) would be. So I’ll side with the CAS and stick with “Babel,” “Blood Diamond,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Departed”
Left Field: “Children of Men”

Best Music – Original Song: Everything from “Charlotte’s Web” to “Home of the Brave” could show up in this category. Additionally, the amount of nominees could round out to a shabby three like last year. “Dreamgirls” could even command 60% of the field, but I’ll stick with one “Dreamgirls” tune joining “Bobby,” “Cars,” “Happy Feet” and “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Also Watch Out For: “Borat”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Best Music – Original Score: Talk about a category that is creating mass confusion. With no precursor of note to guide prognostication, we’re pretty much left with history and gut instinct as to which composers will get in year after year – and typically, this in an insular bunch. I don’t expect Alexandre Desplat and Philip Glass can achieve double nominations in the fashion of vets like John Williams and James Horner in the past, but their work on “The Painted Veil” and “The Illusionist,” respectively, seem to be neck and neck for the ultimate win. In a bind, they’ve got “The Queen” and “Notes on a Scandal” to fall back on. Beyond that duo, last year’s victor, Gustavo Santaolalla, has had a decent run in the admittedly beside-the-point precursor circuit for “Babel.” It’s not a traditional score, but neither was Alberto Iglesias’s work on “The Constant Gardener” last year. To round it out, I am going to go with the feeling that, in a year full of great scores like “Brick,” “The Fountain” and “The Lives of Others,” the branch will stick to their own and nominate Thomas Newman twice, for “The Good German” and “Little Children.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Fountain”
Left Field: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

Best Makeup: Another category where a bake-off list narrows it down, I really feel like we may be in for a surprise. This is a branch that tends to appreciate realistic artistry more often than creative ingenuity, and even with exceptions to that flimsy rule, I wonder if something like “Pan’s Labyrinth” will fall flatter than expected given that its hopes hinge on the work put into just two characters. Similar objections might be made against “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” but I somehow expect Ve Neill and company will still find some space to breath. Former nominee Keith Vanderlaan also feels like a solid bet for the tribal period work on “Apocalypto.” For the last spot, I’ve suspected for a while (and a reader posted similar thoughts in the comments section yesterday) that Rick Baker could slide in for one of his two efforts, and in a category that never fails to surprise, I somehow think a nomination for the aging work in “Click” isn’t so far-fetched.
Also Watch Out For: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Left Field: “The Santa Claus 3: The Escape Clause”

Best Film Editing: The American Cinema Editors tossed an interesting log onto the fire in the form of Stuart Baird and “Casino Royale” grabbing a mention, but I expect the surprises will stop there and we’ll see a line-up largely reflective of the Best Picture category. I’m banking on “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Queen” and “United 93.”
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Best Costume Design: The Costume Designers Guild seems to disagree with the Academy more often than not, but I get the feeling that fifteen nominees make the field wide enough to land at least the bulk of the eventual nominees. I’m not buying the expectations for “The Devil Wears Prada,” considering this is a branch that avoids contemporary product like the plague, no matter how integral to the film’s plot. So I’m sticking with “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Illusionist,” “Marie Antoinette” and, in a slight surprise, Oscar favorite Jenny Beaven showing up for “The Black Dahlia.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Devil Wears Prada”
Left Field: “Infamous”

Best Cinematography: The American Society of Cinematographers really threw a wrench into the works when they announced their nominees a few weeks back. In fact, they kept the Best Picture mix clouded for a short time, leaving all frontrunners off their short list. Usually the group misses one, and though I feel like Vilmos Zsigmond could surprisingly translate his guild nod for “The Black Dahlia” to an Oscar nomination, I’m joining the crow and leaving him off here. “Apocalypto” could also be left off the list, considering the guild digs on digital more so than the Academy, but I’ll stick with Dean Semler. I expect him to join Emmanuel Lubezki (“Children of Men”), Robert Richardson (“The Good Shepherd”) and Dick Pope (“The Illusionist”) in the eventual line-up. That leaves Tobias A. Schliessler and his vibrant work on “Dreamgirls” standing out as the only Best Picture nominee in the bunch.
Also Watch Out For: “Babel”
Left Field: “Flags of Our Fathers”

Best Art Direction: With the splitting off of the fantasy and period categories at the Art Directors Guild this year, we’re left with fifteen nominees to peruse for ultimate Oscar consideration. I think period nominees “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “The Prestige” will join fantasy nominee “Pan’s Labyrinth” a the big dance, with “Children of Men” being a surprise omission.
Also Watch Out For: “Children of Men”
Left Field: “Superman Returns”

Best Animated Feature Film: Too bad for two unlucky films that this category was reduced down to a three-contender arena few weeks ago with the departure of one of the qualifying films, but I don’t think it made much of a difference for frontrunners “Cars” and “Happy Feet.” For the last slot, I’m sticking with what the Annies told us and what the box office reflected, giving the edge to Dreamworks and “Over the Hedge.”
Also Watch Out For: “Monster House”
Left Field: “Ice Age: The Meltdown”

Best Original Screenplay: I was personally quite appreciative of the Writers Guild’s choices for nominees in this category, and expect only “Stranger than Fiction” to fall by the wayside. This will be a brutal fight between “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen,” so fellow nominees “Babel,” “Volver” and (hanging it out there for this one) “Pan’s Labyrinth” will have to enjoy the spectacle…if, in fact, my predictions pan out.
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “The Lives of Others”

Best Adapted Screenplay: The WGA and the USC Scripter are the best precursors to watch for in this category, but this year, it really seems like a number of scenarios could unfold. The frontrunners seem to remain “The Departed” and “The Devil Wears Prada,” with “Little Children” looking in pretty good condition. “Notes on a Scandal” was a surprising guild omission, but it may turn the right corner for Oscar. I’ll round it out with one of the most deserving candidates in the whole field, Jason Reitman and “Thank You for Smoking.”
Also Watch Out For: “Dreamgirls”
Left Field: “The Last King of Scotland”

Best Supporting Actress: It isn’t uncommon for two actresses to show up in this category for the same movie, so Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi have enough room to stretch for their work in “Babel.” But at the same time, it’s usually a comedy that lands two ladies, so perhaps “Little Miss Sunshine”’s Abigail Breslin and Toni Collette form the duo to watch. I’m banking on the former more so than the latter at this point, and though something seems vulnerable about Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal,” I’ll stick with her as well. But does any of this matter? Jennifer Hudson is on a direct trajectory to win this award for her performance in “Dreamgirls,” right?
Also Watch Out For: Toni Collette, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Left Field: Shareeka Epps, “Half Nelson”

Best Supporting Actor: This category remains the most up-in-the-air aspect of this year’s Oscar race. So many contenders have viable shots, and really only Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” seems secure. I expect, however, that sentiment could propel Alan Arkin to a surprise win for his performance in “Little Miss Sunshine,” while likely Best Picture nominee “The Departed” will also surely contribute to the category – most likely in the form of Jack Nicholson. Jackie Earle Haley has maintained a solid precursor run for his comeback work in “Little Children,” and I expect Djimon Hounsou can round things out with his SAG nominated performance in “Blood Diamond.”
Also Watch Out For: Michael Sheen, “The Queen”
Left Field: Ben Affleck, “Hollywoodland”

Best Actress: This category really needs no analysis. Penélope Cruz (“Volver), Judi Dench (“Notes on a Scandal”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Meryl Streep (“The Devil Wears Prada”) and Kate Winslet (“Little Children”) can pretty much be taken to the bank at this point.
Also Watch Out For: Annette Bening, “Running with Scissors”
Left Field: Naomi Watts, “The Painted Veil”

Best Actor: Sigh…I still fear for Leonardo DiCaprio that he may in fact split his votes and end up with nothing. But I’m holding out a sliver of hope that his campaign for “The Departed” didn’t rev up too late to pull the right amount of votes away from his “Blood Diamond” performance. Ryan Gosling seems a fair bet for an accomplished performance in “Half Nelson,” while the real locks in the category have been Peter O’Toole (“Venus”), Will Smith (“The Pursuit of Happyness”) and Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”) for some time.
Also Watch Out For: Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat”
Left Field: Daniel Craig, “Casino Royale”

Best Director: It isn’t often that the Best Picture lineup matches the Best Director lineup 5/5, but the safe bet this year is to predict as much. Something tells me that if a lone director slides into contention, it won’t be Paul Greengrass, but rather Clint Eastwood – and for “Flags of Our Fathers,” no less. That’s right; I’m predicting a stone cold shut-out for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” But in this category, sticking with the DGA nominees doesn’t feel like a terrible idea, so put me down for Alejandro González Iñárritu (“Babel”), Martin Scorsese (“The Departed”), Bill Condon (“Dreamgirls”), Stephen Frears (“The Queen”), and the dynamic duo, Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (“Little Miss Sunshine”).
Also Watch Out For: Clint Eastwood, “Flags of Our Fathers”
Left Field: Robert Altman, “A Prairie Home Companion”

Best Picture: This race, once considered sewn up in some quarters, has turned into the most wide open race in Oscar history. I don’t think that’s an overstatement. A solid case can be made for each of the five likely nominees, which I, like the rest of the chorus, expect to be “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen.”
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “Bobby”

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Previous Oscar Columns:
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"