Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Predicted winner: Jennifer Hudson
Back-Up: Abigail Breslin

It's really left to be seen whether the industry itself is as high on Jennifer Hudson's "Dreamgirls" performance as the critical world has been, but I'll predict her to take the win despite myself. I have the lurking suspicion that Abigail Breslin could surprise the lot and pop up as the big winner here, but however things shake down, the truly deserving actress (Kikuchi) will remain empty-handed.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Predicted winner: Alan Arkin
Back-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio

A lot of folks out there in prognostication land expect the actors' only opportunity to reward Leonardo DiCaprio's "Departed" performance will show itself through the vote turnout in this category. I'm not so sure, especially given the fact that he's nominated elsewhere and could suffer vote-splitting. I also think the Eddie Murphy train will have stopped with the HFPA and Alan Arkin will begin his long road to an Oscar win with a triumph here.

The SAG likes its veterans. You'll recall wins in the past for Christopher Walken, Ian McKellan, Helen Mirren, Albert Finney, Judi Dench, Robert Duvall, Gloria Stuart (in a tie), Lauren Bacall and Ed Harris. And those are just the examples that didn't translate into Oscar success. Additionally, nominations have come for Sally Field, James Earl Jones, Stockard Channing, Gena Rowlands, Pam Grier, Kevin Kline, Cloris Leachman and James Garner when Oscar didn't come knocking. Suffice it to say, they dig the old-timers. Even more than they dig child actors.

This is where Alan Arkin's Oscar campaign gets its nitro.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate winslet, "Little Children"

Predicted winner: Helen Mirren
Back-Up: Judi Dench

On the stunning condition that Helen Mirren doesn't continue her precursor dominance her e(and after all, she DID win recently enough), I'd expect Judi Dench to be the one to slip in and steal the win rather than Meryl Streep (though I concede she too has won recently). But who am I kidding? The 2006-2007 film awards season is Helen Mirren's bitch.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Predicted winner: Peter O'Toole
Back-Up: Forest Whitaker

This is the first time since 1997 that the SAG's Best Actor category has matched the Academy's 100%. This is also a race at the Oscars many have chalked up for Forest Whitaker, and with due cause. Whitaker's performance as Idi Amin in Kevin Macdonald's "The Last King of Scotland" has DOMINATED the precursor circuit. But we're on a whole different playing field now, and if the Guild looks likely to toss a wrench into this year's Oscar expectations, this is where I think it'll happen.

You might know by now that Miramax sent out over 100,000 DVD screeners of "Venus" to the entire SAG membership, a strategy emplyed once before, when Lionsgate hawked a collection of "Crash" to acting households across the country. While that is a hell of a tactic, I don't expect saturation to be the only factor in Peter O'Toole's winning this award.

This is PETER O'TOOLE, an actor's actor. This is an awards show in its infancy that hasn't had the opportunity to nominate O'Toole, let alone award him a statue. To boot, the veteran thespian is portraying an actor in Roger Michell's film, a definite plus for a membership thatconsists of plenty of struggling performers. This isn't the uppity Academy membership we're talking about here. So while I don't think O'Toole will duplicate his SAG success at the Oscars, he certainly has the right role to win big here with a group that loves its veterans. It'll be a brutal two-way fight for the Oscar in the eyes of many following Sunday night.

Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Predicted Winner: "Little Miss Sunshine"
Back-Up: "The Departed"

And here's the big race. "Dreamgirls" and "Bobby" make themselves apparent here, but not with oscar, while the remaining three nominees are in the thick of the Best Picture hunt. Whoever wins here, mustering definitive support from the actors' branch, will have a leg up at the Oscars. But who will it be?

When you think of how this year has come to be defined, you have to consider the modest tale that is "Little Miss Sunshine." The Guild loves their comedies, but besides that, this film is the true organic ensemble of the bunch. Sure, "Babel" has a more complicated ensemble, while "The Departed" boasts more demanding portrayals and therefore more electrifying performances, but "Little Miss Sunshine" is the film that truly feels like an ensemble performance film. It is a family's antics unfolding on screen, with all age groups represented. And you just...can't...root...against...this...film.

I'm predicting "Letters from Iwo Jima" to win the Oscar at the moment, if for no other reason than I expect its buzz is just beginning, rather than drawing to a close. But if any film can topple it at the Oscars, it's "Little Miss Sunshine." The SAG Ensemble award will be a hell of a start.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) Predictions

Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Ensemble: "Little Miss Sunshine"