Predicting The Week In Guilds: DGA
We've got a couple of guilds announcing this week. The DGA come out swinging tomorrow, followed by the WGA and ASC on Thirsday and the ACE on Friday. Here's a look at tomorrow's DGA announcement.
DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) Predictions
Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
For four years running, the DGA has predicted the eventual Best Picture nominees five for five. This year, I think the trend will change, as one of these slots is presumably up for grabs. I don't know the specific rule for the DGA, but I get the feeling Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris will be ineligible (though I realize I was wrong on this regarding the Academy's rule book). All I seem to recall is Robert Rodriguez having to resign from the guild in order to credit Frank Miller as a co-director on "Sin City," so if the DGA has issue with credits, surely that issue would carry over to their awards?
I still maintain that only one of "Babel," "Letters from Iwo Jima" and "United 93" will make it into the Best Picture lineup, and I'm betting that only two of Clint Eastwood, Paul Greengrass and Alejandro González Iñárritu get DGA nominations. The question will then become - stick with me here - which film will make it to the Best Picture finish line? Clearly I'm still banking on "Letters," but things are looking bleak. Blame it on the late entry if you want, but I'd focus things more on a lack of passion behind the campaign.
Other possibilities tomorrow include Robert Altman ("A Prairie Home Companion"), Alfonso Cuaron ("Children of Men") and Guillermo del Toro ("Pan's Labyrinth"). Though I wouldn't be on the lookout for anything too surprising (the guild has gotten more and more boring in recent years), the inclusion of, say, Mel Gibson ("Apolcalypto") would liven things up.
More tomorrow after the DGA announces, including looks at the next wave of guilds.
Comments
with as odd a season this year and a very weak crop of movies, I wouldn't be surprised to see the DGA only pick 3 of the eventual 5 BP nominees, that would be about typical for the year, imo.
my predictions currently are
Condon
Cuaron
Eastwood
Innaritu
Scorsese
I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Eastwood snubbed and Frears pick up his nomination. with those five predictions I wouldn't expect either Letters from Iwo Jima or Children of Men to garner an oscar nom for best picture. I think Eastwood has the cachet with the DGA to get in as well as respect for the boldness (and in many minds, success) of this years one-two punch.
ACE I can see going for:
Schoonmaker
Cox
Mirrione
Katz
(United 93 team)
though they could throw a surprise nom in there to replace the U93 trio, such as Perfume, Pan's Labyrinth, or Borat.
WGA should be interesting. but I don't know who is and isn't in the guild so I don't know what's eligable.
Posted by: movielocke![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 06:03 PM
my predix
* Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
* Alfonso Cuaron
* Martin Scorsese
* Clint Eastwood
* Stephen Frears
Posted by: CarlinhosBrown![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 06:11 PM
My knowledge of the rules has always been that directing teams that are recognised as such are eligible, but you're deemed ineligible if two randoms just decide to direct a movie together (Rodriguez and Miller).
I mean, the Wachowski Brothers are still eligible if they make a movie together because they're a team, but if Spielberg and Eastwood decided one day to just direct a movie together, they'd have no such luck.
Or... I could have no idea and I could just be talkin' outta my arse.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 07:49 PM
Well if that's the rule, it's a bunch of bullshit. If you ask me. I realize...no one's askin' me.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 8, 2007 09:15 PM
Dayton & Faris ARE definitely eligible and it could be like 2004, where Forster's nomination mirrored Finding Neverland's BP nom. I know it's certainly been a while, but:
1978: Warren Beatty & Buck Henry, Heaven Can Wait (DGA and Oscar nom)
1961--duh: Jerome Robbins & Robert Wise, West Side Story (won both)
It's not something to rule out as a surprise, even for the DGA. But I doubt the team will get recognized anyway. Scorsese, Frears, and Gonzalez Inarritu seem the safest, having PGA support as well (though Queen's SAG snub is murky). Condon would have to get in, otherwise Dreamgirls couldn't win BP (fine by me). After that, either Eastwood will pull a Spielberg or Greengrass/Del Toro/Cuaron/Field will shock us all. I'm hoping for Greengrass to get a little love. And I wouldn't rule out an Eastwood snub, though I highly doubt, simply because MDB was released even later than LFIJ, so didn't that have the same amount of screener problems? That still at least got a PGA nom.
What do you think? Would you completely rule out an Eastwood snub? Or think the LMS team will make the cut over, perhaps, AGI (possibly a lone director)? I'm curious.
Posted by: Cinemaniac![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 9, 2007 08:44 AM