"Bobby"'s ensemble nod is the cast nomination without recognition elsewhere, and I guess it really shouldn't be seen as a surprise. But it would have been more interesting to see that spot go to "United 93" or "Letters from Iwo Jima" (which was predictably shut out because most SAG voters are likely just seeing the film, well, right about now).

No Sacha Baron Cohen, so now maybe that Oscar talk for the actor, which was always a bit off base, will start to slow down. No Jack, as mentioned. Gosling finally gets some more love. Arkin shows back up to the dance. And Michael Sheen seems to have fallen off the face of this year's awards race.

But enough discussing what's in front of our faces. Let's take a look at that line-up of ensembles in conjunction with the other "big" precursors. In the last ten years, there have been five films that received PGA, Golden Globe Best Picture, and SAG Ensemble nominations, but failed to receive a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. They are:

"Adaptation" (2002)
"My Big Fat Greek Wedding" (2002)
"Almost Famous" (2000)
"Billy Elliot" (2000)
"Being John Malkovich" (1999)

One drama and four comedies. Only two of those films, "Almost Famous" and "Being John Malkovich," hit the grand slam that includes a DGA nod and missed with the Academy.

This year, the films who've hit the triple are "Babel," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls," and "Little Miss Sunshine." Considering the consensus that "The Departed" is the season's shoo-in, and I guess giving "Dreamgirls" the benefit of the doubt seeing as there is no big tech movie in the mix, we have to look to "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine" for weak links, if there are any. And things look better for "Babel" in that light than they do for "Little Miss Sunshine," which is already set to miss a DGA nod.

But at the same time, "Sunshine" is one of three films that keeps getting high-mark support from Academy members, along with "The Departed" and "The Queen." I personally don't think there's any real reason to believe it's out based on its being a comedy. After all, "Adaptation" and "Being John Malkovich" weren't going to get into the Best Picture arena given the nature of the material. "Almost Famous" had the sad circumstance of being a #2 priority for Dreamworks in 2000. And "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," well...we knew that road was going to stop short with a mere screenplay mention.

"Billy Elliot" went on to grab the lone director nomination with the Academy (as did "Being John Malkovich"), and really, I think that's where Alejandro González Iñárritu might be heading. I know it seems weird for me, an adament supporter of "Babel" and its campaign, to be poo-pooing the film's Oscar chances. But, well, you've heard me give the objectivity speech before. It is, regardless, worth taking into consideration the timetable of the season.

The SAG ballots have been in voters' hands since December 1. A lot has happened since then, and this is the week that counts. Maybe screeners of "Letters from Iwo Jima" are speaking louder to Academy members this week than screenings of "Babel" were a month ago. Maybe the massive critical wave behind "United 93" has finally forced them to pop that film into their DVD players. Who knows? But at the end of the day, I think there is only one spot available for a somber, sobering cinematic experience. "Babel," "Letters" or "United," take your pick.

You know, it's worth pointing out, by the way, that Jackie Earle Haley has become the frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actor race, taking down the most citations in the category for his performance in "Little Children." Very intereting turn of events.

Oh, one last note: a huge congrats to the cast of "Deadwood," the best show to be unceremoniously pulled in quite some time.

As for predictions, I got 19 of the 25 nominees correct.

Nominees for the 13th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards:

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penélope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Best Performance by a Cast of a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Stay tuned this afternoon for Gerard's latest "Tech Support" column, the first part of a two-part guild preview.