Kristopher Tapley: So with the PGA and the DGA matching up and the Best Picture line-up pretty much solidified in the eyes of most, I have to ask…are you predicting a lone director?

Gerard Kennedy: Paul Greengrass (for “United 93”), over Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris for “Little Miss Sunshine.” Though Bill Condon missing would not surprise me at all.

KT: I’m thinking a 5/5 line-up right now, but if I get rid of someone, I guess it’ll be Dayton and Faris – but that DGA nomination was both well-deserved and telling overall. I’m not sure it would be for Greengrass, though.

GK: Clint Eastwood and Robert Altman would be my other considerations. I’m very doubtful on Guillermo Del Toro and I’m not buying Alfonso Cuaron at all.

KT: I’m considering going with Eastwood, but honestly, given the reaction at the guilds, I don’t think it would be for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” If they want to recognize the double-bill achievement, I’m beginning to think they’d nominate him for “Flags of Our Fathers.”

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Picture
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
(alt: "United 93")

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"
(alt: Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris, "Little Miss Sunshine")

KT: How about Best Actor? I’m thinking I’ll stick with the staples: Leonardo DiCaprio (for “The Departed”), Ryan Gosling, Peter O’Toole, Will Smith and Forest Whitaker.

GK: Same here.

KT: It feels wrong, though. I feel like Leo could split so easily. And honestly, I have this weird feeling Daniel Craig could get in!

GK: Sacha Baron Cohen is the biggest upset possibility, but that feels so wrong.

KT: Well, I can’t imagine any actor taking that performance seriously. And he’d have gotten a SAG nod if there was any traction. They love their comedies.

GK: The SAG is what really made me think he was out, but it’s still by far the most taled about/seen performanceof the others. Aaron Eckhart would be my shocker guess.

KT: If only.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
(alt.: Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat")

KT: Well how about the easiest category to predict…ever? Best Actress. Should we bother even analyzing it?

GK: Best Actress is full of five locks, and I’m pretty conservative with the use of that term.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
(alt: Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby")

KT: Best Supporting Actor? What a cluster fuck, right? I guess Eddie Murphy is the standout, then Alan Arkin, who I think can actually contend for the win over Murphy if the campaign switches to focusing on him.

GK: Agreed.

KT: Djimon Hounsou seems pretty solid.

GK: I actually feel Jack Nicholson is more assured the nod.

KT: I don’t know, that SAG miss has me antsy on Jack. He’s actually in my #5 spot right now.

GK: It strikes me as a Maggie-Smith-in-“Gosford Park”-bizarro SAG miss.

KT: Possibly. Jackie Earle Haley rounds out my list.

GK: I’m rounding it out with Haley and Hounsou as well. Hounsou has just scored in all the right places, and Haley’s critical tally is so impressive. And it’s a great story.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
(alt.: Michael Sheen, "The Queen")

KT: Well Best Supporting Actress is pretty solid in four slots, wouldn’t you say? Jennifer Hudson, Cate Blanchett, Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi?

GK: I don’t know. I have the nagging suspicion one of the “Babel” ladies could miss, just because it would be odd for two unknowns in the same film to score. But everyone seems to love them. But yes, I’m predicting those four.

GK: My “limb” prediction is Toni Collette (in “Little Miss Sunshine”).

KT: Over Abigail Breslin?

GK: Yeah.

KT: I think I’ve got Collette at #6, but it’s a good call.

GK: She’s in the right film and seems to be a well-respected, well-liked actress, and one who has been nominated surprisingly before for a Best Picture nominee. That said, Breslin is probably the safer bet, though I doubt sag will match up 5/5 in two different categories.

KT: Well, they usually do well with the ladies regardless. Maybe both Collette and Breslin could get in, bumping one of the “Babel” ladies per your hunch? It isn’t uncommon for two nominees to come from a comedy in this category. But then, what about Breslin pulling a real shocker and getting in for lead, like Keisha Castle-Hughes in “Whale Rider.” Now THAT would get the blood flowing!

GK: Someone would have to receive a nasty snub.

KT: Well I long for some sort of excitement.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
(alt: Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine")

KT: How about Best Original Screenplay?

GK: “Babel,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen” are locked. “United 93” is the sort of critical fave that sneaks in. It’s not a script-heavy film per se, but the WGA and BAFTA nominations make me think Greengrass will score anyway.

KT: See, I disagree completely. I think the “United 93” screenplay is miraculous. It’s SO script-heavy, driven completely by dialogue – and REALISTIC dialogue. I consider it one of the most undervalued scripts of the year.

GK: Well I personally would nominate it, but despite the very tight structure, many would say “I don’t remember it for its words,” or some such nonsense. “Pan’s Labyrinth” would round out my list, though. But the fantasy gives me hesitation.

KT: I may go with “Volver” over “Pan’s.” It’s a very unique and masterful screenplay, if, at least in my view, and overrated film on the whole. “The Lives of Others” is a threat, too. And of course, “Stranger than Fiction” is lurking.

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Best...shot...of...the...year.)

GK: “Fiction” perfectly fits the mold of the WGA-but-not-Oscar nominee. I reckon a foreign entry will knock it out.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Original Screenplay
"Babel"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"The Queen"
"United 93"
(alt: "Stranger than Fiction")

KT: Well, comedies are usually the first thing to go at the WGA. Which brings me to “Thank You for Smoking” and Best Adapted Screenplay. I feel like Jason Reitman’s script is dancing on the edge, and that should not be the case. “The Devil Wears Prada” should be in the midst of a death fall, yet there it is, largely the #2 candidate behind “The Departed.” How…did…this…happen??

GK: It’s bizarre. And this category is all over the place when you think about it.

KT: I kind of thought “The Illusionist” could get in until I watched it again this week. Such a bad script.

GK: Yeah, it’s a really bad script.

KT: I’m sold on “Little Children” now, but “Notes on a Scandal” needs some help. “Children of Men” won the Scripter award, but that’s not saying a lot considering it missed out on a WGA nomination. I think “Dreamgirls” is hobbling, but it might just make it in.

GK: I feel like “The Last King of Scotland” could surprise.

KT: Me too, and talk about the one script that deserves to win the whole thing.

GK: “Notes” would be my #6, and it makes more sense on paper than “Last King,” but I think Whitaker and Peter Morgan love can push the script in there.

KT: Ballsy, kid.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"The Last King of Scotland"
"Little Children"
"Thank You for Smoking"
(alt: "Notes on a Scandal")

KT: Well this has been another refreshing bout of brain-spillage. Let’s revisit this post-nominations and see how we view the winners shaking down.

GK: Looking forward to it.

You can, as always, check out Gerard's thorough technical category analysis at "Tech Support" each and every week. And again, check back Monday for the final pre-nominations Oscar column and my personal rundown of final predictions.