As up and down as this season has been, I have to say that I am beyond thrilled with how Gerard Kennedy has handled the "Tech Support" column here at In Contention. Writing with the same amount of passion I tend to exude for the craftsmen and women of this industry, he has kept an even keel all season and struck the right notes along the way. He has extended a healthy helping of respect to the behind the camera individuals we feel don't get the appreciation they deserve and - above all - handled his first stab at being edited and having his ideas challenged with the utmost professionalism.

When I sat down to bring "Tech Support" to a reality, I knew that I couldn't give it the full attention it required and maintain the functions of an entire website at the same time. So bringing Gerard on has helped alleviate the weight on my end, but it has also given the tech environment a clear voice in the film awards season, free of distraction.

Some strides were taken at this year's show, but it still goes without saying even organizations like the AMPAS need a lesson or two in conveying the right appreciation for a group of people that makes up probably 75% of their membership. Folks like art director Lorin Flemming ("Running with Scissors"), who found herself perplexed even at the way the Academy goes about it's awards dishing.

"I do think that it is strange that the award for best Art Direction is awarded to the Production Designer and the Set Decorator," she told me some months back. "I could understand if it was just the Production Designer, who is ultimately responsible for the visual direction of the project. But if you include the Set Decorator then it seems to me an important member of the art department leadership team is left out."

Given the way many awards-giving bodies handle the technical branches, you'd think their work might even go unappreciated by fellow industry workers. But Flemming disagreed somewhat, saying "We are often congratulated and thanked, but when it comes down to it, I do think that often our co-workers and collaborators in other departments have no idea how much work goes into what they are asking us to do or what they see when they arrive on set. It just kind of magically appears."

Even still, she isn't so naive as to think others don't share her plight.

"I think most other departments would say the same thing about their own work," she mentioned. "I guess after all, it is our job to make it seem that easy."

But it isn't. And that is pretty much the essence of what we sought to convey with "Tech Support."

While Jack Nicholson's maniacal mug on a TV spot might sell tickets to "The Departed," that mug wouldn't be there if it weren't for folks like cinematographer Michael Ballhaus. The title set of "Pan's Labyrinth" couldn't have been brought to life without the efforts of production designer Eugenio Caballero and his art department. And though the now iconic image of Davy Jones in "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" looks great on a poster, it takes visual effects artists such as John Knoll, Hal T. Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall to bring that character to life on the screen and fulfill the promise hanging on the wall in the theater lobby.

So yes, I am very proud of our work here this year in getting these artists some much needed attention. I can only hope they feel they have been rightfully represented by myself and Mr. Kennedy, and indeed, I very much look forward to providing one of, if not the only outlet for their efforts' consideration in the world of film awards coverage. God willing, In Contention will not remain alone in that quest for long.

Below you'll find Mr. Kennedy's final column of the season, and I once again extend my greatest thanks for his contribution, a vital part of InContention.com. Thank you for reading, and please enjoy his final ponderings:

What can I add at this stage? The race is over. Allow me a few thoughts before signing off for the year.

Without any doubt, one of the biggest stories of Oscar night was the love for “Pan’s Labyrinth.” The only film to take home multiple crafts awards, it garnered three. Best Art Direction was claimed by Eugenio Caballero for his memorable and haunting sets, with John Myrhe unable to win his third statue in five years for “Dreamgirls.”

UPDATED (3/1): Tom O'Neil has O'Connell's response to all this at The Envelope:

As you may or may not know, my mother Skippy passed away on Sunday night right after the Oscars. I was holding her in my arms when she died. I was not made aware of Mr. Minkler's comments until Monday morning. I have not seen them personally and at this point I have no intention of looking at them or reading about them. I'll get back to you when I get that far down of my list of what is important to me. Take care, Kevin.

Let's hope all this mess is behind us soon, and above all, that Mr. Minkler can drum up the stones to at least apologize for his unnecessary public comments.

EARLIER: By now many of you may be aware of the comments sound mixer Michael Minkler made about his peer, Kevin O'Connell's status as the most nominated craftsman in the industry yet to win. While I have heard murmurs from certain quarters that some mixers were becoming irritated with the amount of publicity around O'Connell and partner Greg P. Russell, I think it goes without saying Minkler's press room comments were uncalled for, petty, and above all, unprofessional.

I emailed Russell this evening to get a response out of him, even to find out of Minkler was indeed sincere in his comments or if it was some dry joke. Mr. Russell replied with an impassioned, lengthy tirade full of expletives, and I offered some space for him to provide an official statement if he liked, perhaps one more toned down. Like the straight-shooter he is, Greg released the quote for me to print in full, and so I shall...

He was absolutely sincere with that BULLSHIT. That man has lost whatever respect he had from a ton of people. Kevin mind you left the ceremonies right after our award and went to the hospital where his mother passed away in his arms at 11:32 pm. As if Kevin didn't have enough to deal with. He wakes up to this bullshit.

It's been a really weird couple of days. I've been fielding all the calls because Kev has been out. The head of our studio came in to say he blasted Minkler for his assault. I even kicked myself for being congratulatory that night. Minkler said to me when I congratulated him that I was always a classy guy and he appreciated that alot. Integrity is something that means everything to me and this man has absolutely NONE. He stood backstage representing the entire Sound Community in front of the world, only to disgrace us all.

What makes the whole scenario worse is Minkler's notion that O'Connell is an "okay" mixer, when two of Minkler's three Oscars have come for the easiest genre to mix there is: the film musical. When the songs come to you pretty crisp and sounding good to go, and there is little if any layering and creation in the way of aural environments (and indeed, the Academy at large remains ignorant to this process), sure...you're gonna keep winning Oscars.

In any case, it really puts things in perspective when you consider that, with all the publicity...hey, maybe O'Connell just really wanted his mother to see him win an Oscar before she passed away. Still want to tell him he should just "go away and be happy" with his 19 nominations, Mr. Minkler?

By now we've all heard the late night jokes, seen the television commentary, even read the Joel Stein LA Times column that piled on (with mere limo driver speculation and nothing more), in search of the ever juicy news "angle," indicating that Best Supporting Actor nominee Eddie Murphy left last night's Oscar in some sort of obvious state of disrespect. "Left in a huff" and "stormed out" tend to be the often used terms.

Hollywood Elsewhere columnist Jeffrey Wells, who himself has led a lengthy campaign against Murphy and his Oscar prospects, perpetuated these tales and offered unending, lengthy commentary on the matter. But, this has simply become a case of lies getting bigger the more they are repeated.

Thankfully Wells ran a quote from someone at last night's ceremony debunking the notion that Eddie left the Kodak Theater like the bastard he's been made out to be. My response to the information was:

"Bravo to this chap. I've been getting fucking sick of the perpetuation of unverified information on this thing. Sure, Eddie left. But all this 'in a huff' shit is just editorial embellishment that 'journalists' should be embarassed over."

Well, ironically enough, I too am acquaintances with said chap, and he recently sent the following note to me:

"The comments on Jeff Wells's site about Eddie Murphy being cool and gentlemanly while leaving the Kodak are from me. If you do feel (as I do) that Murphy is being lynched with unsubstantiated innuendo, I would strongly urge you to run the quote as well. Further, I would urge you to spread the word around as much as possible."

And so I will, with an addendum to the original quote, posted at the tipper's request:

I was at the Oscars, sitting towards the front in the orchestra, and I watched Eddie Murphy leave the auditorium. He passed less than twenty feet away from me and I watched him very carefully because I knew the loss for Best Supporting Actor had to sting and was hoping he was just taking a short break and would return soon.

For the record, he did not "storm out." He did not "leave in a huff." Those phrases imply a mien of anger and agitation that was simply not present. To the contrary, Eddie was composed and polite and waited patiently for those in front of him to exit the theater first. He was as cool and gentlemanly as a person could be under those circumstances.

The phrases "storm out" or "leave in a huff" may be figuratively true (it's arguable), but they are absolutely false in any literal sense. Anyone who repeats those phrases is misrepresenting what actually happened at the moment when Mr. Murphy left the auditorium, and perpetuating a falsehood. There are enough lies in Hollywood. Let's not add one more to the pile.

ADDENDUM:It may have been ungracious for Murphy to leave early, but the terms "stormed out" and "left in a huff" are character assassination, pure and simple. Those who use those phrases should be ashamed of themselves.

I shot an email of congratulations off to "Little Miss Sunshine" scribe Michael Ardnt after he won the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay Sunday night. This was Michael's reaction to the denoument of his exciting and opportune ride with the film:

It's still sinking in. You just don't think it's ever really gonna happen to you, so actually winning requires a readjustment in your entire world-view.

In any case, you'll be glad to know that the award on Sunday night has finally given me the courage to become what I've always dreamed of being -- an egomaniacal, money-grubbing, status-obsessed Hollywood monster. Yippee!!! Dreams can come true!

But seriously, it's deeply humbling. I only hope I can live up to it in my future work.

Even though "Little Miss Sunshine" hit a bit of a back-lash in the final weeks of the Oscar season, and though a number of individuals who were in love with the film during the summer suddenly started calling it things like "slight" and "flat," I still think it remains one of the absolute best films of the year. And Michael's Oscar, in a crowded, competitive field of deserving contenders, is validation of the troubling experience that is getting a screenplay made in this town. Bravo.

It’s that time of year: the annual “you must be insane” in-depth glance at the upcoming Oscar season – a full year in advance.

I stay away from year-in-advance prognosticating until the day after the Oscars largely because it is around this time of year that we really get something resembling a handle on such shenanigans. Entering the spring months, we can ascertain what films look likely to be finished in time, which have already gotten the bump to next year, which haven’t yet gone before cameras (and thusly, likely won’t release by year’s end), etc. Additionally, Sundance has clued us into a thing or two, and considering the success of “Little Miss Sunshine” in 2006, it would behoove us all to wait until that key week has come and gone before tossing ideas about.

So…let’s do it!

I’ve had the initial conversations with publicists regarding the awards product on the horizon, but even getting into what thick of it we can, I must say the 2007-2008 Oscar season looks miraculously ambiguous from afar (imagine that). After last year’s woeful showing in year in advance prognostication, I’m certainly not keen on taking an early look too seriously, but even for my tastes, the year ahead is a bit murky.

The film on the tip of everyone’s tongues is Tim Burton’s “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street,” but I confess I feel the touch of “Dreamgirls” all over this film’s hype. Indeed, I was one of a very few individuals unwilling to give Bill Condon’s film the benefit of the doubt a year in advance, and I must say, I’m tempted to go the same route with Burton’s latest. Regardless, I think it might be premature to think that just because a film has so much multi-branch potential it is somehow in the golden position. This year’s crop of Best Picture nominees shared, after all, the lowest number of total nominations in decades.

So where are the heavy-hitters going to make their home? Warner Bros. had the lion’s share of nominations this year, but if I were a betting man, I’d say Paramount Vantage and the Perception PR team will capitalize on what is clearly the most stacked studio lineup of the 2007 lot. Marc Forster’s “The Kite Runner” seems to be in the poll position, with the latest efforts from Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”) and the Coen brothers (“No Country for Old Men”) not far behind.

Sean Penn will come to the dance with “Into the Wild,” looking like “Grizzly Man” meets “Cast Away,” while funny bones will be tickled by Noah Baumbach (“Margot at the Wedding”) and Mike White (“Year of the Dog”). Early word on the dailies for Michael Winterbottom’s “A Mighty Heart” seems to be positive enough, so perhaps Angelina Jolie is a lead actress frontrunner for now?

Coming in right behind Vantage might well be Time Warner’s umbrella of companies, starting at the foot of the mountain in Burbank with Warner Bros. and an interesting array of unique offerings.

It seems one of my most anticipated films, Andrew Dominik’s “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” will finally make its way to screens. “Sweeney Todd” (a WB domestic excursion, mind you) will of course slash its way into the competition, while genre offerings will abound as well (“300,” “I Am Legend”). We’ll get another “Harry Potter” installment (“The Order of the Phoenix”), a Rob Reiner geriatric comedy that could be brilliant or terrible (“The Bucket List”), a great role for Jodie Foster in Neil Jordan’s return (“The Brave One”) and – of all things – a remake of “Mostly Martha” (“No Reservations”).

Picturehouse will try to build “Pan’s Labyrinth”-level steam with “Silk” and “La Môme,” among others, while New Line places its hopes on “Love in the Time of Cholera” and “His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass.” Chocked full of technical talent the latter is.

Paul Haggis haters might well explode if “In the Valley of Elah” hits the ground running for Warner Independent, or maybe the studio will find traction with Michael Haneke’s remake of his own film, “Funny Games.”

Of the entire Time Warner product, I expect WB’s “Michael Clayton” from director Tony Gilroy to be a big play, with George Clooney in the lead as a weathered veteran lawyer.

Speaking of Hollywood’s favorite liberal, he sets up directorial shop at Universal with “Leatherheads,” joining a who’s who of helming talent on Lankershim Blvd. Ridley Scott (“American Gangster”), Paul Greengrass (“The Bourne Ultimatum”), Shekhar Kapur (“The Golden Age”) and Garry Marshall (“Georgia Rule”) will all be vying for the Oscar strategic wit of Tony Angellotti and Michael Moses, but I’m betting they’ll all have to take a back seat to Mike Nichols’s “Charlie Wilson’s War” in that regard.

Uni’s dependent arm, Focus Features, looks to actually have something for Oscar marketers to work with this year following a mere handful of potential in 2006. The big dog on campus (considering the favored release date) looks to be Terry George’s “Reservation Road,” which might well mean the Oscar for Joaquin Phoenix after having to bow out two years ago to make way for Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Joe Wright, meanwhile, will follow up “Pride & Prejudice” with the Ian McKewan adaptation, “Atonement,” a vehicle that could mean a lot for the awards careers of Keira Knightly and, especially, James McAvoy.

David Cronenberg is ready to party again with “Eastern Promises,” working from a script by the brilliant and underrated Steven Knight. Ang Lee shrugs off the “Brokeback Mountain” disappointment with “Lust, Caution,” while Michael Cunningham’s “Evening” will make its way to screens, bursting with prime female roles. Michel Gondry’s “Be Kind Rewind” could merely be more kookiness, or it could be something that rings “their” bell again, while Don Cheadle has a real opportunity in “Talk to Me,” Kasi Lemmons’s “The Caveman’s Valentine” follow-up.

Finally, MGM and United Artists are leaping head-long into the fray, the former sharing duties with a number of Weinstein Company offerings, the latter heating up with Tom Cruise wielding the magic production wand. “Lions for Lambs” has everyone saying “hmmm,” while Robert Benton’s “The Feast of Love” could be a return to form – or not. Werner Herzog’s “Rescue Dawn” could be an opportunity for Christian Bale and especially Steve Zahn, and who’s not going to get a kick out of Ryan Gosling falling in love with a blow-up doll in “Lars and the Real Girl?” Academy Award nominee Ryan Gosling, that is.

Oh yeah, and Milos Forman’s “Goya’s Ghosts” finally has domestic distribution: Samuel Goldwyn Films.

Chirp. Chirp.

A few films still need a buyer. Francis Ford Coppola’s “Youth Without Youth,” should it hit screens, will do so on the tenth anniversary of “The Rainmaker.” Woody Allen’s “Cassandra’s Dream” is floating around. Alan Ball has an untitled “Towelhead” adaptation that could be huge. Richard Attenborough’s “Closing the Ring” might be more of the last gasp of Merchant-Ivory-ish fare in the spirit of “The White Countess” and “The Painted Veil,” and Sidney Lumet has “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” waiting for someone to take it seriously. Given the fate of the vastly underrated “Find Me Guilty,” should we hold our breath?

As for trends, it might very well be the year of the long title. Here’s a sampling:

“And When Did You Last See Your Father?”
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”
“Dragonlance: Dragons of Autumn’s Twilight”
“Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer”
“Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix”
“His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass”
“Love in the Time of Cholera”
“Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End”
“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”

Here’s hoping we don’t run out of breath by season’s end.

In any case, we’re off. 2006 is a memory and 2007 is lurking, waiting for its moment to jump up and scream, “Didn’t think you’d get away that easy, did you?!” And so it goes.

In the sidebar, you’ll find my eyes-closed, fingers-crossed stabs in the dark at where I think the individual races might go. I’ve also cooked up the year’s first charts (see below), a lengthy list of contenders (by category) and a films-by-studio rundown for your own researching pleasure.

Oh, and just to be as ridiculous as I can possibly be (I’m a completist, after all), I’ve gone ahead and made some winner predictions for the nutter in us all. Why the hell not?

And with that, I’m DONE. It’s time for an extended vacation. The Oscar season has officially exhausted me, and hopefully, after a couple of months’ rest, some relaxing travel, a few solid days on the shores of Kauai, maybe I’ll be ready to pick the boulder up again in July and start lugging it back up the mountain. Or maybe I’ll hold off until August. I don’t know yet. But in the meantime, enjoy the early look, and I’ll see you when I see you.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
2007 Year in Advance Winner Predictions

2006 Predictions Archive

Three Six Maffia - 1; Martin Scorsese - 1

This is the part where I'm supposed to fall to the floor on my knees and scream "I'm ruined!" But...nah. This race was crazy, and even though a number of "consensus" picks won out in the end, an equal number of upsets were awaiting the audience of the 79th Annual Academy Awards. It was a roller coaster night, one worthy of taking a few chances. Sometimes they pay off, sometimes they don't. But truly, upsets were afoot.

The first eye-brow-raisers were the animated categories, which surprisingly went to "The Danish Poet" and "Happy Feet" respectively. But the real doozey was minutes away: Alan Arkin taking the prize for Best Supporting Actor. The moment the nominations landed last month, I knew this was Arkin's award for the taking. I pulled my punch for about a week, but eventually settled back on the old guy. Glad he's finally got a statue.

And there's no better segue than from those words to these: A Martin Scorsese film has finally won Best Picture and Best Director. And...holy shit...of the nominees, it is the most deserving contender. I am so, SO happy the Academy was this cool. That they were this smooth. That they were this...badass. You have to go back to "The French Connection" to find a film this hard boiled winning the big prize, and even THAT was a film that advanced the medium considerably. "The Departed" is just an unassuming genre picture, one that was a critical and box office champ, sure. But one that was unconventional for this group all the same. Bravo.

(More and a full list of Oscar winners after the jump.)

Before continuing on to the highlights, let me say a big "SHAME ON YOU" to the Academy for being so ignorant as to ignore Emmanuel Lubezki's miraculous cinematography on "Children of Men." I had a feeling it would prove not "pretty" enough for them in the end, and sadly, that inkling was proven to be a valid one. Let alone the fact that Alfonso Cuaron's film deserved nominations across the board that it didn't receive. But this should have been a gimme. Ridiculous.

Anyway, the highlights for this viewer have to begin with Ennio Morricone's gracious and beautiful acceptance of a much-deserved Honorary Oscar. Following close behind, other than Marty getting his due, I have to say I found the banter between Abigail Breslin and Jaden Smith a delight as they were presenting the short film awards. And that "Dreamgirls" number was SENSATIONAL. I was sad to know that each of those tunes was about to lose Best Song, but nonetheless, a sweet, flawless moment in the program.

Ellen Degeneres was so-so as the hostess. A good joke popped through here and there, but nothing sensational. The best material was reserved for Al Gore (who proved tonight he'd have this whole town behind him if he'd just...run...). I laughed out loud here and there, but, eh, there's only one Billy Crystal. The show was kind of a bore, to be honest.

Before I check out here, I have to say this. Sasha Stone called the win for "The Departed," which became a "consensus" pick later in the season, as far back as November. She never totally went on the record with that prediction until the nominations were released, but, well, there it is. While some of us were being silly and predicting the outside shot, she was calling the outside shot that became the clear Academy favorite. Kudos, doll. I took a bath. You hit the right notes.

As for predictions, I went 16/24. I matched fellow pundits Pete Hammond (damn you, Pete, for convincing me on "Recycled Life") and David Carr. I was bested by my partner here at In Contention, Gerard Kenney, who nailed 17. I believe Anne Thompson, Erik Childress and David "'Dreamgirls' would have won if it was nominated" Poland landed 18 correct guesses. If you want to be petty and include alternates, make my tally 20/24.

As for the awards recipients, "The Departed" lead the pack with 4 wins, "Pan's Labyrinth" close behind with 3(they loved this movie...well, ouotside of the stuck-up foreign film viewing committee). "Dreamgirls," "An Inconvenient Truth" and "Little Miss Sunshine" take 2 each.

And with that, the 2006 film awards season is FINALLY over. And it was a long one. But guess what? We're going to dive head-long into next year's forecast tomorrow (one day only...and then I'm checking out of all things Oscar for a LONG time). So tune in for that tomorrow and, in the meantime, bask in the glory of a deserved set of wins for Martin Scorsese's "The Departed." It's been a long time coming.

Quick Oscar links for today's coverage:

Live Blogging the Pre-Shows
Live Blogging the Telecast
Kristopher Tapley's Final Predictions
Gerard Kennedy's Final Oscar Predictions

And the Oscars Went To...

Best MOTION PICTURE of the Year

"THE DEPARTED"
Graham King, Producer

Achievement in DIRECTING

"THE DEPARTED"
Martin Scorsese

Performance by an ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE

FOREST WHITAKER in "The Last King of Scotland"

Performance by an ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE

HELEN MIRREN in "The Queen"

Achievement in FILM EDITING

"THE DEPARTED"
Thelma Schoonmaker

Achievement in MUSIC Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SONG)

"I NEED TO WAKE UP" from "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH"
Music and Lyric by Melissa Etheridge

Best WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN

"LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE"
Written by Michael Arndt

Achievement in MUSIC Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SCORE)

"BABEL"
Gustavo Santaolalla

Best DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

"AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH"
Davis Guggenhiem

Best DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

"THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT"
Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

Performance by an ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE

JENNIFER HUDSON in "Dreamgirls"

Best FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM of the Year

"THE LIVES OF OTHERS"
Germany
Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck

Achievement in VISUAL EFFECTS

"PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST"
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall

Achievement in CINEMATOGRAPHY

"PAN'S LABYRINTH"
Guillermo Navarro

Achievement in COSTUME DESIGN

"MARIE ANTOINETTE"
Milena Canonero

Best WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED OR PRODUCED

"THE DEPARTED"
Screenplay by William Monahan

Best ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

"HAPPY FEET"
George Miller

Performance by an ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE

ALAN ARKIN in "Little Miss Sunshine"

Achievement in SOUND MIXING

"DREAMGIRLS"
Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie Burton

Achievement in SOUND EDITING

"LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA"
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Best LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

"WEST BANK STORY"
Ari Sandel

Best ANIMATED SHORT FILM

"THE DANISH POET"
Torill Kove

Achivement in MAKEUP

"PAN'S LABYRINTH"
David Martí and Montse Ribé

Achievement in ART DIRECTION

"PAN'S LABYRINTH"
Art Direction: Eugenio Caballero
Set Decoration: Pilar Revuelta

4:55 PM Alright, we're all done here. Gonna check out and get ready for the show, but keep checking back. I'll be live blogging the winners as they're announced. Here's hoping for an exciting show and that everyone can be happy with at least one or two awards. Can't please everyone, but c'est la vie. Enjoy the show!!!

4:50 PM: Oh, dear. Richard...George...just, stop...stop...

4:47 PM: Hahahahaha! Roeper and this other nut are like teenage hecklers on the sidelines. Peter O'Toole! Peter O'Toole! Meryl and Nicole!!! Meryl and Nicole!!! I'm waiting for one of them to shout "show us your tits" to Queen Latifah.

4:44 PM: Hey, Ryan Gosling is around after all. I love that he went MIA as soon as the nods came out, off to work on his next flick, "The Lord's Resistance Army" (though he said it to me with the "Army" left out). One of my favorite moments of the year was our interview back in November. (I'm checking out the ABC coverage now, by the way. Slightly less grating. Slightly.)

4:41 PM: It cracks me up that NO ONE is saying anything, but there is, after all, a GIGANTIC FUCKING NORBIT BILLBOARD above the El Capitan right there on Hollywood Blvd., across the street from the Kodak. I mean, I was just over there yesterday and even I was chuckling. Come on, one of these pre-shows needs to break out that nugget.

4:37 PM: Favorite thing to do at a party: see how many guys you catch staring at Beyonce's ass. It works just as well in the play at home version. That guy behind her just stared another whole into her backside.

4:33 PM: Ladies and gentlemen, the CLINT has arrived.

4:31 PM: Alan Arkin doesn't give you ANY slack. Hahaha! Reminds me of that awkward drink we shared back in October.

4:33 PM: When will Jared the Subway guy go away? Anyway, presenters we know so far:

James McAvoy and Jessica Biel: Best Sound Mixing
Emily Blunt: Best Costume Design
Francis Ford Coppola, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg: Best Director
Jodie Foster: In Memoriam

And assuming the following:

Phillip Seymour Hoffman: Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon: Best Actor
George Clooney: Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz: Best Supporting Actor

4:12 PM: Oh shit!! I forgot about Djimon Hounsou being in the "Love Will Never Do" video! Haha. R.I.P. Herb Ritts.

4:10 PM: Damn. Steve Carell just said he thought "The Departed" was gonna win Best Pic. Where's the faith, Steve!? And Leo has fantastic hair...constantly.

4:05 PM: I did it. I couldn't help it. I clicked over to the TV Guide channel. JOAN RIVERS AND SALLY KIRKLAND!!! I'm gonna hurl...

4:02 PM: Did Jennifer Hudson stop by the kids' clothing section of Target? What's with the jacket? Lose it...and someone punch Simon Cowell in the face.

3:58 PM: Three years ago it was Catalina Sandino Moreno knocking my socks off on the red carpet. No one seems to be capable of that anymore, but Penelope Cruz comes close. HOT!

I really wish John Travolta had shown up in the "Hairspray" fat suit. That's just me...

3:46 PM: Okay, that's the fourth "Babel" spot I've seen in the last hour. Vantage realizes the campaign is over, right?

Also, why is it I watch these pre-show things each year with a pain in my stomach. They just seem like total train wrecks. Not in a good way. And I'm scared to even GLANCE at what Joan Rivers is doing.

3:36 PM: Al and Tipper Gore. Sorry I missed them the other night, but some journalists aren't happy unless they bitch and whine...or so it seems. Run, Al. Please. Run.

3:10 PM: James McAvoy (poor bastard has been shafted all season). Humble and nice as ever. It seems he's presenting Best Sound Mixing with Jessica Biel.

2:45 PM: Another "Dreamgirls" package?

2:30 PM: Nothing much worth talking about regarding the E! countdown so far. They did this interesting little video package about Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet a moment ago, a ten years after "Titanic" sort of deal. Both have nominations this year, so...interesting, I guess.

Jennifer Holiday is singing "And I'm Telling You" on the roof of the Roosevelt right now. Wait, is that the Roosevelt? Not sure, but she's basically proving two things in one fell swoop. One, she's desperate to cling to her "Dreamgirls" success and it's cross-over film success. But more than anything, she's proving she would have been terrible on screen in ANY role in this film, however badly she wanted to be in it. Her mannerisms and singing are just too theatrical. And she said earlier she's singing better today than she did twenty years ago. I...beg to differ.

1:30 PM: Might as well.

Here are my final predictions. Here are Gerard's. Oscarwatch has the big chart up to see what the rest of the world is thinking. And now it's all done but the crying.

I think the best way to do this is a new entry per category. That way we can optimize the discussion, spread the conversation and offer separate places for separate commentary.

Three and a half hours and counting. Any last minute jitters out there? Who am I kidding, this whole damn SEASON has been a last minute jitter.

(Big, fat spoilers if you've never seen "Once Upon a Time in the West.")

More gushing at The Blog.

I used to think that if I ever met God, he’d look like Kenny Rogers. It just seemed about right. And like The Gambler said, “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.” But I don’t even think the almighty himself would know how to call the 2006 film awards season.

A year like this presents that unique opportunity in the world of prognostication, free of definitives, seemingly clear of “safe” bets, where any of the five nominated films for Best Picture could walk away with the top prize. So why not play the outside odds? Why not place a hop bet on a hard eight, close your eyes and wait for the stickman’s call? (I bet that’s the only craps reference you’ve come across in Oscarland.)

With that in mind, in either my infinite wisdom or my unparalleled stubbornness, I’ve decided to play the cards I’ve been considering heavily for the better part of four months. Sure, I folded this hand once pre-nominations, but not this time. Even if the allure of being alone in a prediction settles nicely with this rebel, I still feel that Clint Eastwood’s “Letters from Iwo Jima” is the film that can throw a wrench into the machinery of Oscar night, 2007.

It’s interesting to see these random polls indicating “Letters” on top, to be solicited for podcast discussion on the topic and to see Academy historian Robert Osbourne suddenly waving a flag for the film. It’s interesting because none of that really means a whole lot to me as it pertains to this prediction. It has always just made a weird sort of SENSE to me.

The guilds didn’t see it before nominating. Barely enough Academy members saw it in time to nominate, but seemingly enough did to bolster passionate support to land it a Best Picture nomination. In the weeks since the announcement of the nominees, the film has been in the unique position of being the last film seen; the film about which people would be saying “What’s all this fuss about?” Then you read a Kim Masters article about one guy who took a look at the Best Picture nominees, didn’t find himself considering any of them “best” and marked Clint down in a sympathy vote. One has to wonder, who else is doing that very thing?

Like Jack said in the Best Picture “frontrunner”: “And I think about this.”

The bottom line is rhetoric begets more rhetoric. You can talk circles around any of the nominees and come up with valid analysis. Old fashion phone calls and member interrogation has turned up zip this time around, so you really have to just go with the line of rhetoric and reasoning that makes sense to you, and ever since I saw “Letters from Iwo Jima,” it was a film that made sense to me as a Best Picture victor. Despite it’s being in a foreign language, despite its lack of star-power (Oscar history is hitting a brick wall slowly in the last three years), and combined with another ambitious war effort from a drastically respected veteran of this industry…it just adds up.

“Little Miss Sunshine” could win because, at least in the guild scenario, it commanded two significant chunks of membership: actors and producers. “Babel” could win because it has obvious support throughout a number of branches. “The Departed” could win because it might be too difficult to not allow Scorsese to have his cake and eat it too, assuming though that may be. And “The Queen” could win because there is not a bad word that can be said about it.

What I dread is the wave of definitives that will crash the party if, say, “Babel” or “The Departed” wins. “See!” I can hear the masses screaming. “You really DO have to have an editing nomination to win!” Well, no, you don’t. And this season, just in its first phase, has already broken all kinds of Oscar “records,” but, well, “print the legend” and all of that.

But really, it’s all been talked to death. I’m prepared for any of the films to be read aloud Sunday evening. I’m not confident in my own prediction, and no more so than if I had predicted any of the rest. In some ways I feel like I’d be more confident predicting a tie. Talk about hedging your bets. But I gotta be me…and so I am.

What’s fascinating is that there are so many other races worth an equally in-depth look, races that seem ripe for upsets. I have this weird feeling Peter O’Toole could pull off that unlikely victory in Best Actor. I sense that anti-fantasy bias will steer the foreign language film committee to “The Lives of Others.” I feel like the hippie, baby boomers might rather rock out to James Taylor or Melissa Etheridge than a “Dreamgirls” number. It seems to me “Children of Men” could easily not prove “pretty” enough to win Best Cinematography, while something breathtaking like “The Prestige” could surprise. The Academy might be more impressed with the makeup seen throughout “Apocalypto” rather than the work done in a couple of key scenes in “Pan’s Labyrinth.” And Best Original Score? Pull it out of a hat, because who the hell knows?

It’s the Oscars that could go one of a million different ways, and as eager as I am to be on the other side of it, I’m strangely ready to relish in the surprises (or lack thereof) as they come down the pike this weekend. So put on your Sunday finest, put the champagne on ice and don’t bogart the guacamole. “It’s going to be a bumpy night!”

Full list of final predictions below, indicated in the sidebar and, as always, charts:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

INCONTENTION.com's FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

Performance by an ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland"

Performance by an ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine"

Performance by an ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Helen Mirren in "The Queen"

Performance by an ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls"

Best ANIMATED FEATURE FILM of the Year
"Cars"
John Lasseter

Achivement in ART DIRECTION
"Pan's Labyrinth"
Art Direction: Eugenio Caballero
Set Decoration: Pilar Revuelta

Achievement in CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Children of Men"
Emmanuel Lubezki

Achievement in COSTUME DESIGN
"Dreamgirls"
Sharen Davis

Achievement in DIRECTING
"The Departed"
Martin Scorsese

Best DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"An Inconvenient Truth"
Davis Guggenheim

Best DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
"Recycled Life"
Leslie Iwerks and Mike Glad

Achievement in FILM EDITING
"Babel"
Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise

Best FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM of the Year
"The Lives of Others"
Germany

Achievement in MAKEUP
"Pan's Labyrinth"
David Martí and Montse Ribé

Best MOTION PICTURE of the Year
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz, Producers

Achievement in MUSIC Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SCORE)
"The Queen"
Alexandre Desplat

Achievement in MUSIC Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SONG)
“I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
Music and Lyric by Melissa Etheridge

Best ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"The Little Matchgirl"
Roger Allers and Don Hahn

Best LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
"West Bank Story"
Ari Sandel

Achievement in SOUND EDITING
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Achievement in SOUND MIXING
"Dreamgirls"
Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie Burton

Achievement in VISUAL EFFECTS
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall

Best WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED OR PRODUCED
"The Departed"
Screenplay by William Monahan

Best WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
"Little Miss Sunshine"
Written by Michael Arndt

Tally:
“Dreamgirls” - 3
“The Departed” - 2
“An Inconvenient Truth” - 2
“Letters from Iwo Jima” - 2
“Little Miss Sunshine” - 2
“Pan's Labyrinth” - 2
“The Queen” - 2
“Babel” - 1
“Cars” - 1
“Children of Men” - 1
“The Last King of Scotland” - 1
“The Lives of Others” - 1
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest” - 1

Previous Oscar Columns:
02/12/07 - "Short Talking"
02/05/07 - "Around the Bend"
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

Gerard has gone through the tech races with a comb to dish out his final predictions. Here's what he's come up with:

Three days. Then it’ll be another year before the men and women of filmmaking get to go to the Kodak Theater and celebrate their work in front of the world. As I mentioned two weeks ago, the craftsmen and craftswomen tend to take a backseat in media coverage. But they still combine for ten of the twenty-four awards handed out on Oscar night. So let’s take one, final look at these races.

Still on a brief pre-Oscar vacation, so no full column this week. I'll offer up final analysis and charts on Friday, but for now I'll just say a lot of people seem to think the "puzzle pieces" are coming togeher based on largely flawed logic considering the particulars of this season and the milestone of last season.

For the time being, here are the Monday charts:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Also, I'll hopefully get to that "Babel" column within the week, but don't expect pieces on either of the Warner Bros. Best Picture entries. They've snubbed me again, so to speak, and I can't get anyone to take a five minute phoner. But hey, with 18 nominations, they clearly don't need my help.

Coming next Monday: Year in Advance speculation begins! (Ugh)

"Babel" and "The Departed" tie for the ACE? Come on... "Dreamgirls" also won. They love their Ginny Katz.

The ASC predictably went to "Children of Men." But...for some reason...I get the feeling the Academy could REALLY throw a wrench in the works on that category next week.

Lots of movement today. "Dreamgirls" missed out with the CDG only to pick up the CAS minutes later. Big wins for "Curse of the Golden Flower" and "Pan's Labyrinth."

ART DIRECTORS GUILD

Contemporary:
"Casino Royale," Peter Lamont

Fantasy:
"Pan's Labyrinth," Eugenio Caballero

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Huo Tingxiou

The first of two big wins for "Pan's" today, and one of two surprising victories for "Curse." This race really is up in the air, and honestly, judging one's predictions based on what the guild saw as award-worthy might be a bit foolhardy. This Oscar is no more "Pan's" than it is any of the other nominees'. We'll see how it plays out.

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY

"Dreamgirls," Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer, Willie D. Burton

We're still likely looking at our Oscar winner, but Academy members still have a soft spot for war films. Watch out for "Flags."

COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD

Contemporary:
"The Queen," Consolata Boyle

Fantasy:
"Pan's Labyrinth," Lala Huerte

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Chung Man Yee

Gotta say no shocks there, as "Curse" might have upset "Dreamgirls," but really, it's been the musical's competition for the Oscar since day one. "Prada" was destined to miss this boat to "The Queen," and who didn't think "Pan's" would reign in fantasy?

One of the most dazzling technical achievements of the year has been, seemingly without question, Alfonso Cuarón’s “Children of Men.” Capturing a bleak and not so distant future through the spectrum of war-torn London, the film has been a towering achievement in pretty much every field we’ve outlined here at “Tech Support” throughout the season. And, as the Oscar ceremony rapidly approaches, one of the categories seems to have been long relegated to this, one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year.

Emmanuel Lubezki’s duties behind the camera on the film might immediately be described as harrowing if not monumental. Work that has already garnered him BAFTA, LAFCA and NSFC awards for Best Cinematography, some are quick to point out that “Children of Men”’s visual intensity will be taught in film schools for years to come. As such, the opportunity to talk with the man responsible for such a barrage of adjectives is one to relish indeed.

I spent the weekend with the short film nominees to get a handle on how I see those two typically ignored races shaping up. I thought I’d use this week’s Oscar column to reflect on those ten entries.

Best Short Film (Live Action)

In the live action category, I have to say, things are looking bleak. I understand the difficulties of making a short film. I spent four years making them as an undergrad, after all. You have to capture an audience in a short amount of time, but if you want your film to be any sort of calling card, you also have to present viable cinematic capabilities that show you can handle a feature experience. Usually, one of two things makes for a failing short: the vision is too small or the vision is too big.

Thankfully, none of the live action shorts competing this year suffers from having a bloated vision. And really, the only film that has an expanded thematic and spatial mentality (“Binta y la Gran Idea”) manages to keep an even keel. But none of these films really transcends enough to write home about. None of them has a creative thrust that leaves you wanting to see the filmmaker’s next work, and certainly, none of them leaves me with a desire to see these filmmakers hitting the feature turf running.

Let’s start with the likely winner, and ultimately, the worst film of the lot: “West Bank Story.” Replace the word “Bank” with “Side” and you’ll get an idea of what this short-sighted, spoof-ish, altogether uncreative film is all about. Set in the West Bank and detailing forbidden romance and feuding fast food joints (the Kosher King and the Hummus Hut respectively), “West Bank Story” takes its leads from “West Side Story,” which took it’s leads from William Shakespeare, which took his leads from Greek mythology.

It kind of reminds me of high school, actually. You could tell which weeks the food budget had suffered a blow. On Monday, we had pizza, and throughout the week, varying shades of Italian cuisine. All I know is it was red and orange. By Friday, we had “lasagna.” My classmates and I were convinced it was all the same food.

But I digress.

“West Bank Story” shows that filmmaker Ari Sandel has the visual quirkiness that is necessary to be a filmmaker, but it also shows he is capable of drastically limited vision and, clearly, he wasn’t willing to push very hard on this effort. He’s got a calling card, likely an Oscar, and his career will be off. But that doesn’t make “West Bank Story” a good film.

The best offering of the lot would have to be “The Saviour,” the story of a Mormon evangelist who falls in love with a married woman, one of his door-to-door “prospects.” The fact that he is missing a hand is fascinating, I’m not quite sure why. He hits a crisis of faith when she tells him they can no longer see each other, and the third act offers the closure a film like this needs.

“The Saviour” isn’t perfect. It isn’t head-turning, it isn’t even poignant. But it has some ideas, makes its case, gets to the point in a decent amount of time and gets out before things go on too long. That’s all you can really ask for. Filmmaker Peter Templeman also shows visual idiosyncrasies that ought to improve as he crosses over into feature territory, should he choose to do so.

Elsewhere, the most awarded of the live action shorts, “Eramos Pocos,” isn’t much of an effort either. It, too, lives and breathes in its final act, but the ultimate reflection on the rest of the film in hindsight is a bit hollow.

“Binta y la Gran Idea,” the longest of the nominees, is actually very interesting. Narrated in a humorously matter of fact tone by Binta, a young girl in Senegal, we’re treated to perspectives of education, village life and family affection.

Finally, the least interesting film of the bunch, “Helmer & Søn.” There isn’t much to say about this other than, well, at least it was brief. It clumsily makes its way to a point of father-son love and hate, but really, it just feels like the last act of something with much more substance.

Best Short Film (Animated)

On the other side of things, the animated shorts are by and large a delight from start to finish. Most of the time, animated short nominees come from studios churning out brief segments in the wake or in preparation of one of their feature endeavors. Pixar started in the short game before launching into cinemas with “Toy Story” in 1995, and Disney, of course, always cranks out short form work and has done so for decades. Each company has an entry in this year’s race, as does another major studio, hopping into the fray with a tagalong from one of their feature sequels.

Ultimately, I wish more singular creativity would yield animated contenders in the Oscar race. Understandably, animation is an expensive endeavor, so it makes sense that major companies would show up more often than not. But sometimes, you get something that is clearly a piece of passionate creativity which didn’t spring out of a conglomerate. Such is the case with Géza M. Tóth’s “Maestro.”

I first saw “Maestro” months ago, actually, and was delighted to see it had received an Oscar nomination. I really couldn’t go into much depth about this brief film without spoiling the ultimate point of the effort, but I love what is offered as a plot outline at IMDb: “Five minutes before his big performance, the Maestro and his persistent mechanical assistant are getting ready. As the clock ticks, life at the top is not all it seems.”

“Maestro” might be considered a dark horse to win in this category, but I think the most deserving of the lot will be the ultimate victor: the heartbreaking “The Little Matchgirl” from The Walt Disney Company and filmmaker Roger Allers.

Based on the Hans Christian Anderson tale of the same name (and if you’ve read it, you understand the need for a box of tissues), this film is absolutely WONDERFUL. It is at once a meditation on the vibrancy of imagination and the harshness of reality and, in my view, it might be the best short to ever come out of the Mouse House.

Allers, you may recall, co-directed “The Lion King” in 1994. He was also on the story department for “The Little Mermaid,” also based on one of Anderson’s stories, and indeed, “The Little Matchgirl” can be found on the 2-disc special edition of that 1989 Oscar winning animated milestone. In many ways, his work on this short is not only a validation and nostalgic reincarnation of traditional Disney animation, but proof of its ultimate power.

20th Century Fox missed the animated feature category this year for “Ice Age: The Meltdown,” but Chris Renaud’s “No Time for Nuts,” included on the DVD, did manage a spot in the short field. It’s definitely a better film than its big brother, which was a snooze and a half, but “No Time for Nuts” is also quite creative, boasting a refreshing sense of humor. This film won the Annie over the weekend, but it wasn’t, however, competing with any of the other Oscar nominated films.

Pixar is in the mix again, this time with sound editor Gary Rydstrom’s directorial debut, “Lifted.” This is a gorgeously animated film that could well take the win. Rydstrom is certainly a hero in the animation community, designing the sound of more than a few successful feature endeavors in that realm for some time now. If you listen through the credits, you’ll even hear the infamous “Wilhelm scream” sound effect that remains a running gag in those circles.

In any case, “Lifted” has a great sense of humor and, encouragingly, looks likes the beginnings of what could be a great Pixar feature. The short will be attached to the studio’s summer release “Ratatouille” later this year.

Finally, the black sheep of the group would have to be “The Danish Poet.” Classic film buffs will enjoy the narration of actress Liv Ullman, and some might even get caught up in the film’s romantic story. But I was nodding off and it’s only a fifteen minute ride.

The Oscar nominated shorts will be released theatrically on February 16 across the country by Magnolia Pictures.

Coming next week: Final Oscar predictions. It's almost over!

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
02/05/07 - "Around the Bend"
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

And Alan Arkin won Best Supporting Actor? Food...for...thought. "Little Miss Sunshine" also won Best Original Screenplay.

I usually steer clear of this awards body. Not a lot of excitement for my taste. But at least "The Last King of Scotland" landed three big awards. "Pan's Labyrinth" also took home three, while "Children of Men," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen," and "United 93" claimed two apiece.

(Full list of winners after the jump.)

THE ACADEMY FELLOWSHIP
Anne V. Coates

THE MICHAEL BALCON AWARD for Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema
Nick Daubeny

FILM
"The Queen" - Andy Harries/Christine Langan/Tracey Seaward

THE ALEXANDER KORDA AWARD for the Outstanding British Film of the Year
"The Last King of Scotland" - Andrea Calderwood/Lisa Bryer/Charles Steel/Kevin Macdonald/Peter Morgan/Jeremy Brock

THE CARL FOREMAN AWARD for Special Achievement by a British Director, Writer or Producer in their First Feature Film
Andrea Arnold (Director) - "Red Road"

THE DAVID LEAN AWARD for Achievement in Direction
Paul Greengrass - "United 93"

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Little Miss Sunshine" - Michael Arndt

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Last King of Scotland" - Peter Morgan/Jeremy Brock

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
"Pan's Labyrinth" - Alfonso Cuarón/Alvaro Augustin/Guillermo del Toro

ANIMATED FEATURE
"Happy Feet" - George Miller

ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Forest Whitaker - "The Last King of Scotland"

ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Helen Mirren - "The Queen"

ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin - "Little Miss Sunshine"

ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Hudson - "Dreamgirls"

THE ANTHONY ASQUITH AWARD for Achievement in Film Music
"Babel" - Gustavo Santaolalla

CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Children of Men" - Emmanuel Lubezki

EDITING
"United 93" - Clare Douglas/Christopher Rouse/Richard Pearson

PRODUCTION DESIGN
"Children of Men" - Jim Clay/Geoffrey Kirkland/Jennifer Williams

COSTUME DESIGN
"Pan's Labyrinth" - Lala Huete

SOUND
"Casino Royale" - Chris Munro/Eddy Joseph/Mike Prestwood Smith/Martin Cantwell/Mark Taylor

ACHIEVEMENT IN SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" - Knoll/Hal Hickel/Charles Gibson/Allen Hall

MAKEUP & HAIR
"Pan's Labyrinth" - José Quetglas/Blanca Sànchez

SHORT ANIMATION FILM
"Guy 101" - Ian Gouldstone

SHORT FILM
"Do Not Erase" - Asitha Ameresekere

THE ORANGE RISING STAR AWARD
Eva Green

Gerard wasn't able to crank out a "Tech Support" column last week, but he's got a doosey here this weekend. As we await the BAFTA and WGA announcements, here's a little food for though as he waxes on about how the Academy, the studios and the industry at large might improve the process of recognizing and representing the individuals behind the camera that get the job done:

Allow me to step away from general analysis this week and make a few observations on the current, often underappreciated, experience that is the race for the craft awards. Perhaps there are considerable ways of improving it.

We all see the stars hitting the talk shows. The trades are brimming with ads. The DGA nominees are all giving their spiel in high profile fashion. The acting and writing nominees are visible all around Hollywood. One would be hard-pressed to say the nominees aren’t receiving ample media and industry coverage – unless, of course, you are a nominee in a crafts category.

As usual, these men and women are taking an incredibly (back back back) backseat in media coverage and even industry coverage. Sure, they turn out in support for their films at this party/gathering or that, but you won’t find much in the way of campaign concentration. This process not only ghettoizes their categories in the eyes of the public, but it is also is a disservice to the integrity of awards process in these categories.

In a Best Picture field as wide open as 2006’s crop has proven itself to be, a film like Stephen Frears’s “The Queen” seems to have as much going for it as the next entry. It is an effort with appeal on a number of levels, one that could certainly be deemed a healthy “consensus” victor on Oscar night. Truly, who DOESN’T like this movie?

Presented with the idea that his film has as much of a chance as the rest of the lineup, Frears’s instinct is to keep such expectations muted in his periphery. “Don’t say that,” he told me in a telephone interview from London. “It’s bad for my heart!”

Regardless, of the nominated films, “The Queen” has positioned itself as the most critically acclaimed of the lot. Near universal appraise and approval has accompanied the effort since its October domestic release. And the awards season has followed suit; “The Queen” is second only to “Babel” in total nominations amongst the Best Picture nominees.

Actress Helen Mirren, who portrays Queen Elizabeth II during the week of Princess Diana’s tragic death in the film, is herself a frontrunner to take home an award on Oscar night. That slowly agreed upon “fact” hasn’t changed her perspective of pleasant surprise regarding the film’s reception, however.

“When the idea of making ‘The Queen’ was first mooted,” she said in a statement following the nominations announcement, “we had no idea that the result would have quite the impact it has had. It is astounding the way that audiences have responded by taking the film to their hearts.”

Tasked with portraying one of the most elusive public figures of the modern era, Mirren’s Oscar nomianted performance didn’t come without its challenges.

“It is one of the hardest roles to play not just a living person but one who is part of our everyday lives in Britain,” her statement continues. “Whilst her presence is with us from her image on the letters that come through our door and on the money we spend, we know so little of the woman behind the image. I hope that my performance has conveyed a sense of Elizabeth the woman as well as the Queen.”

The actress also made it a point to convey how indebted she was to the work of screenwriter Peter Morgan. Morgan put a lot into the investigative research that ultimately yielded an inside look at the English monarchy, speaking to a number of individuals with ties to the Royal Family. Like any good writer or journalist, he isn’t about to discuss who his sources were. Suffice it to say, they included former employees as well as people from different palaces – and therefore, different slants of rhetoric.

“There are three different palaces,” Morgan told me in an interview at the Regent Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills, “St. James’s palace, which is Charles’s court, Kensington Palace which is Diana and Buckingham Palace which is the Queen. They each have their own sets of employees, and they all spin like crazy against the other guys. So you have to be pretty rigorous to see people from each, otherwise you end up with a very partisan view.”

“The Queen” actually exists as the second part of a potential trilogy involving British Prime Minister Tony Blair; Frears directed Morgan’s Blair-centric screenplay “The Deal,” which aired on television in 2004. Actor Michael Sheen portrays Blair in each and, should the final chapter come to fruition, will surely step into the role once more.

During the process of making “The Deal,” Morgan found himself facing a lot of walls in his research. But when the film finally hit the small screen, he felt that people must have been quite shocked by it tonally, having taken Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown seriously as adults. He crafted the tale as a sort of Cain and Abel story and explored that relationship appealingly enough that it granted artistic capital his way when he went about piecing together “The Queen.” Things were much easier the second time around, and perhaps sources saw it as a chance for their own voices to be heard through the work of the filmmakers.

Of course, Morgan paints Blair in the good guy position in “The Queen,” only to potentially send him, too, to the dog house in a third installment that will have Blair supporting an unpopular war far longer than anticipated. He hopes to have that conversation with Frears back home before commenting on the final film further, but even though he has received letters of encouragement from Blair, he understands things could be much different should he and Frears embark on the closing chapter.

“I think he’d be less than thrilled with part three,” he said with a smile. But, as Frears puts it, “People like me are very disappointed (in Blair). It was a real opportunity to make changes.”

Neither Frears nor Morgan is altogether familiar with the interpretation of “The Queen” as a very current, in some ways American piece of filmmaking. When asked about the parallels that could certainly be drawn to a leader out of touch with his OWN people here in the States, Frears claims he “can’t pretend it was primary.” Morgan, meanwhile, asserts that his intention was the “polar opposite.” He thought maybe curiosity would beget an international audience – a look into the heart of British government for voyeur’s sake. But the widespread appeal it has generated leaves him at a bit of a loss.

That doesn’t deter him, however, from drawing yet another parallel to current political climate when speaking about the film’s themes.

“It is about two leaders peering through blinds at a country out in the streets,” he said, “and them thinking ‘What the fuck to we do now?’ Ultimately all leaders are in the survival business, and if this film shows anything, it shows they will change – if enough of us are screaming for them to change.”

“Our leaders. Ourselves.” One can only hope.

Previously:
“E Pluribus Unum” (“Little Miss Sunshine”)

In some sense, playwright and screenwriter Patrick Marber could best be described as he endearingly refers to friend Daniel Craig: “He’s just a dude.” He sports a shock of black hair with hints of gray, looking still younger than his actual years. He’s fond of his cigarettes and has the same icy blue eyes as fellow Oscar nominees Peter Morgan and Guillermo Arriaga. However, where he seems to break away from that, or any company, for that matter, seems to be in his idiosyncratic nature. He’s warm and open, but clearly there’s more underneath. This is a guy concealing his hand.

A glimpse at Marber’s film work alone will reveal two strikingly different portraits of obsession and dependency. In “Closer,” which he adapted from his own play for filmmaker Mike Nichols in 2004, the sexes wage war in unforgivable, bitingly honest ways. In “Notes on a Scandal,” adapted from the Zoe Heller novel and directed by Richard Eyre, the scathing realities of “Closer” give way to equally painful notions of fantasy, longing and self-delusion. How does a guy with three young children and a healthy professional status allow himself to “go there?”

Well, to be fair, “Closer” came at a troubling time for the writer. Though he doesn’t subscribe to “writing as therapy,” that play and those characters certainly served such a function for him at a crucial time. And he’ll be the first to admit the work reads better if you happen to be concurrently experiencing the crushing truths it puts on display. That was a decade ago, however, and even today, he can’t seem to feel those same emotions when he revisits the work. To him, it’s just material now.

Sitting across from Marber over coffee at the Beverly Hills Hotel’s Polo Lounge on a baking, sunny February morning, I was faced with a man who doesn’t need you to perceive things his way. He will even subtly challenge you to be assured in your own vantage point. Like any good writer – and I seem to be spending time with plenty of them lately – Marber asks pondering questions that come from a place of meaning, and at times, intent. A sarcastic twinkle seems to lie just below the surface of an artist enjoying himself and his good fortune in this new medium, almost as if it has all caught him by surprise.

Marber’s nomination for “Notes on a Scandal” might be seen as something of a vindication for missing the big Oscar dance two years ago. But holding no ill will toward that unfortunate post-HFPA/BAFTA snub, he is quick to consider and understand how adapting one’s own work might be perceived in the eyes of a nominating body. And indeed, the “Closer” adaptation played close to the originating work.

For Marber, working with Mike Nichols for two years was his own personal film school. A transitioning writer looking to the big screen for further professional ambitions couldn’t have found a better partner in crime, considering how closely Nichols’s work parallels themes and tendencies found in Marber’s writing. It is clearly a cherished experience, and proved to be a healthy initiation into the business of film.

It was producer Scott Rudin who brought Marber along for the “Notes” ride, following a nice collaboration on “Closer.” Rudin sent Marber Heller’s novel and hired him for the gig without a lot of peripheral consideration – a true partnership had formed. The two will work together at least once more, as Marber sets about adapting Ian McEwan’s “Saturday.” The project ought to take full advantage of the writer’s talents, another insular tale of foreboding: post-9/11, London setting on the eve of Bush’s Iraq offensive.

In the meantime, Marber is more fascinated by the fact that Los Angelinos actually get bored with this gorgeous Southern California weather. A Londoner through and through, fog and rain is more the custom in his world than palm trees and sunshine – so much so he still prefers a spot in the shade. But on three hours’ sleep and a nominees luncheon to attend within the hour, he’s still quite content and pleased with the unfamiliarity of it all. Refreshingly honest, quick to indicate his satisfaction with Academy recognition (in a category with “Borat,” one of his favorite films of the year, no less) and adamant about sharing his morning toast, Patrick Marber is enjoying the ride rather than awaiting the outcome. He seems to have left his demons behind, but after he puts his children to bed at night and heads to the basement to crank out a decent night’s work, they still haunt every page.

Ballots went out last week. The nominees luncheon is today. You’d be hard pressed to find many in the industry to disagree with the fact that this is the week that counts. This is the week that matters. But with a lot of things settling into “truth,” perhaps a bit too soon for this prognosticator’s tastes, I think I’m allowed one more week of pure speculation and instinctual discussion. So I’ll take it.

Since the announcement of the Oscar nominees two weeks ago, I’ve had the opportunity to talk with a number of the lucky individuals who get to step up to bat in the extra innings phase of the season – some twenty individuals, give or take. More will come this week, but what seems to be the tone of the conversation recently has been how incredibly open the field is, pretty much across the board. And rarely does a conversation go by without one of these folks mentioning the fate of “Dreamgirls” in the face of greater awards prognostication.

One nominee even continued the old adage verbatim: “Nobody knows anything.”

The buzz hound of the moment remains “Little Miss Sunshine,” with its gallant showing at the Producers and Screen Actors Guilds. However, what many forget to consider is how those groups voted in a different spectrum, and how those wins, indeed, any wins prior to the nominations announcement, are reflective of the buzz of another time frame. The campaign that matters is the post-nominations push.

So who is stepping up to the plate?

The biggest surge in the print arena is Cynthia Swartz, Miramax marketing and the sudden intense shove for “The Queen,” which landed a number of ads in recent trades, printed on sturdy paper and featuring a broader strategy. We see less in the way of the film being a Helen Mirren vehicle than we do allowances for other contenders to share her space. A number of ads feature Michael Sheen in tow as Prime Minister Tony Blair, or helmer Stephen Frears directing the Best Actress contender in a variety of settings.

The color scheme on this campaign has also been amped up slightly, with what could be described as a regal red catching the eye. Additionally, I’ve noticed some images of Princess Diana (taken from the footage used in the film) hovering like a specter on more than a few ads, an indication of the film’s greater importance and broader themes.

On television, high profile interviews have included Forest Whitaker, Abigail Breslin, Jennifer Hudson, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren and Judi Dench (Oprah’s show was stacked, as usual). Speaking of television, the DVD campaign for “Flags of Our Fathers” might draw consideration toward Clint Eastwood’s efforts this year, as “Letters from Iwo Jima” still remains in the interesting position of actually beginning its buzz rather than coming around the forth turn like the majority of the field. But truthfully, I’m giving that film and that campaign one more week to really keep me on board. “Letters” has and has had AMPAS written all over it from day one, but it hasn’t had the right amount of willful aggression yet. It’s now or never…looking like never.

Gauging from internet ad purchases, it becomes kind of clear which studios really want it. And frankly, Miramax has been consistent all year long. While I’m still banking on “Letters” making something of itself in this crucial stretch (and Warners has put their money where their mouth is at times), I begin to sense “The Queen” as positioning itself quite well for the Best Picture upset. The same minds are behind this push, remember, that ushered “Crash” to the finish line last season.

“Little Miss Sunshine” is approaching that sticky backlash stage. “Liked it, didn’t love it,” the most pathetically apologetic of “buts” when it comes to that deserving film’s buzz, could manage to keep the achievement muffled. But from what I’ve heard, it is the talk of the actors’ branch.

Adore “Babel” though I may (and admittedly, I have a hard time arguing against it outside of gut instinct), I still feel like this valiant film and this rigorous campaign will have a hard time making it over the hump of that “hated it” faction than they did in the nominations stage. I would love for them to prove me wrong…again.

“The Departed,” meanwhile, remains the most wishful thinking bet of them all. And yes, even considering Martin Scorsese’s DGA win Saturday night – an award telegraphed and bound for the esteemed veteran. This is my favorite film of the nominated five, but it so clearly appeals to too specific a spectrum. I would have to consider it at the bottom of the pile, fair or not, and really, it has been a Marty awards vehicle above and beyond a broader hopeful from…the…start.

That’s simply how the field seems to be shaking down for me. We’re still in that “anything can happen” stage, though that window is closing rapidly. Any one of the five could win, and none should be considered a surprise. How the guilds end up voting their winners could be an indication. Then again, it could simply be the parts reflective of the parts, rather than the sum. Something largely agreeable tends to be the last film standing, and if you can make a statement in so voting, it’s even better. To me, there are only two films this year that have that distinction, and so they top my chart this week.

Oh yeah, and nobody knows anything.

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Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

Stunning! Surprising! Scandalous! Shocking! Surely not!!!

Moving on...

Other winners of the evening included Arunas Matelis for the documentary "Before Flying Back to Earth," in something of an upset over Amy Berg's "Deliver Us From Evil." Walter Hill took home the win for television's "Broken Trail," while Jon Cassar and Richard Shepherd won television series awards for "24" and "Ugly Betty" respectively.

EDITED TO ADD (11:03): Variety now has a briefing up (time-stamped at about twenty minutes earlier than the story ACTUALLY went up, mind you).

Two of last week’s Academy Award nominees offered seemingly diametrically opposing examples of building theme and character: the understated and the overstated. Consolata Boyle’s subtle but particular work on Stephen Frears’s “The Queen” was singled out by the costume designers’ branch, while Philip Glass’s rolling, tension-inducing score for Richard Eyre’s “Notes on a Scandal” ultimately out-lasted his more classic work on Neil Burger’s “The Illusionist.” I recently had the opportunity to speak with both artists about their Oscar-nominated work.