It’s interesting to see these random polls indicating “Letters” on top, to be solicited for podcast discussion on the topic and to see Academy historian Robert Osbourne suddenly waving a flag for the film. It’s interesting because none of that really means a whole lot to me as it pertains to this prediction. It has always just made a weird sort of SENSE to me.

The guilds didn’t see it before nominating. Barely enough Academy members saw it in time to nominate, but seemingly enough did to bolster passionate support to land it a Best Picture nomination. In the weeks since the announcement of the nominees, the film has been in the unique position of being the last film seen; the film about which people would be saying “What’s all this fuss about?” Then you read a Kim Masters article about one guy who took a look at the Best Picture nominees, didn’t find himself considering any of them “best” and marked Clint down in a sympathy vote. One has to wonder, who else is doing that very thing?

Like Jack said in the Best Picture “frontrunner”: “And I think about this.”

The bottom line is rhetoric begets more rhetoric. You can talk circles around any of the nominees and come up with valid analysis. Old fashion phone calls and member interrogation has turned up zip this time around, so you really have to just go with the line of rhetoric and reasoning that makes sense to you, and ever since I saw “Letters from Iwo Jima,” it was a film that made sense to me as a Best Picture victor. Despite it’s being in a foreign language, despite its lack of star-power (Oscar history is hitting a brick wall slowly in the last three years), and combined with another ambitious war effort from a drastically respected veteran of this industry…it just adds up.

“Little Miss Sunshine” could win because, at least in the guild scenario, it commanded two significant chunks of membership: actors and producers. “Babel” could win because it has obvious support throughout a number of branches. “The Departed” could win because it might be too difficult to not allow Scorsese to have his cake and eat it too, assuming though that may be. And “The Queen” could win because there is not a bad word that can be said about it.

What I dread is the wave of definitives that will crash the party if, say, “Babel” or “The Departed” wins. “See!” I can hear the masses screaming. “You really DO have to have an editing nomination to win!” Well, no, you don’t. And this season, just in its first phase, has already broken all kinds of Oscar “records,” but, well, “print the legend” and all of that.

But really, it’s all been talked to death. I’m prepared for any of the films to be read aloud Sunday evening. I’m not confident in my own prediction, and no more so than if I had predicted any of the rest. In some ways I feel like I’d be more confident predicting a tie. Talk about hedging your bets. But I gotta be me…and so I am.

What’s fascinating is that there are so many other races worth an equally in-depth look, races that seem ripe for upsets. I have this weird feeling Peter O’Toole could pull off that unlikely victory in Best Actor. I sense that anti-fantasy bias will steer the foreign language film committee to “The Lives of Others.” I feel like the hippie, baby boomers might rather rock out to James Taylor or Melissa Etheridge than a “Dreamgirls” number. It seems to me “Children of Men” could easily not prove “pretty” enough to win Best Cinematography, while something breathtaking like “The Prestige” could surprise. The Academy might be more impressed with the makeup seen throughout “Apocalypto” rather than the work done in a couple of key scenes in “Pan’s Labyrinth.” And Best Original Score? Pull it out of a hat, because who the hell knows?

It’s the Oscars that could go one of a million different ways, and as eager as I am to be on the other side of it, I’m strangely ready to relish in the surprises (or lack thereof) as they come down the pike this weekend. So put on your Sunday finest, put the champagne on ice and don’t bogart the guacamole. “It’s going to be a bumpy night!”

Full list of final predictions below, indicated in the sidebar and, as always, charts:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

INCONTENTION.com's FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

Performance by an ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland"

Performance by an ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine"

Performance by an ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Helen Mirren in "The Queen"

Performance by an ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls"

Best ANIMATED FEATURE FILM of the Year
"Cars"
John Lasseter

Achivement in ART DIRECTION
"Pan's Labyrinth"
Art Direction: Eugenio Caballero
Set Decoration: Pilar Revuelta

Achievement in CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Children of Men"
Emmanuel Lubezki

Achievement in COSTUME DESIGN
"Dreamgirls"
Sharen Davis

Achievement in DIRECTING
"The Departed"
Martin Scorsese

Best DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"An Inconvenient Truth"
Davis Guggenheim

Best DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
"Recycled Life"
Leslie Iwerks and Mike Glad

Achievement in FILM EDITING
"Babel"
Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise

Best FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM of the Year
"The Lives of Others"
Germany

Achievement in MAKEUP
"Pan's Labyrinth"
David Martí and Montse Ribé

Best MOTION PICTURE of the Year
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz, Producers

Achievement in MUSIC Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SCORE)
"The Queen"
Alexandre Desplat

Achievement in MUSIC Written for Motion Pictures (ORIGINAL SONG)
“I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
Music and Lyric by Melissa Etheridge

Best ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"The Little Matchgirl"
Roger Allers and Don Hahn

Best LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
"West Bank Story"
Ari Sandel

Achievement in SOUND EDITING
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Achievement in SOUND MIXING
"Dreamgirls"
Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie Burton

Achievement in VISUAL EFFECTS
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall

Best WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED OR PRODUCED
"The Departed"
Screenplay by William Monahan

Best WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
"Little Miss Sunshine"
Written by Michael Arndt

Tally:
“Dreamgirls” - 3
“The Departed” - 2
“An Inconvenient Truth” - 2
“Letters from Iwo Jima” - 2
“Little Miss Sunshine” - 2
“Pan's Labyrinth” - 2
“The Queen” - 2
“Babel” - 1
“Cars” - 1
“Children of Men” - 1
“The Last King of Scotland” - 1
“The Lives of Others” - 1
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest” - 1

Previous Oscar Columns:
02/12/07 - "Short Talking"
02/05/07 - "Around the Bend"
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"