The buzz hound of the moment remains “Little Miss Sunshine,” with its gallant showing at the Producers and Screen Actors Guilds. However, what many forget to consider is how those groups voted in a different spectrum, and how those wins, indeed, any wins prior to the nominations announcement, are reflective of the buzz of another time frame. The campaign that matters is the post-nominations push.

So who is stepping up to the plate?

The biggest surge in the print arena is Cynthia Swartz, Miramax marketing and the sudden intense shove for “The Queen,” which landed a number of ads in recent trades, printed on sturdy paper and featuring a broader strategy. We see less in the way of the film being a Helen Mirren vehicle than we do allowances for other contenders to share her space. A number of ads feature Michael Sheen in tow as Prime Minister Tony Blair, or helmer Stephen Frears directing the Best Actress contender in a variety of settings.

The color scheme on this campaign has also been amped up slightly, with what could be described as a regal red catching the eye. Additionally, I’ve noticed some images of Princess Diana (taken from the footage used in the film) hovering like a specter on more than a few ads, an indication of the film’s greater importance and broader themes.

On television, high profile interviews have included Forest Whitaker, Abigail Breslin, Jennifer Hudson, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren and Judi Dench (Oprah’s show was stacked, as usual). Speaking of television, the DVD campaign for “Flags of Our Fathers” might draw consideration toward Clint Eastwood’s efforts this year, as “Letters from Iwo Jima” still remains in the interesting position of actually beginning its buzz rather than coming around the forth turn like the majority of the field. But truthfully, I’m giving that film and that campaign one more week to really keep me on board. “Letters” has and has had AMPAS written all over it from day one, but it hasn’t had the right amount of willful aggression yet. It’s now or never…looking like never.

Gauging from internet ad purchases, it becomes kind of clear which studios really want it. And frankly, Miramax has been consistent all year long. While I’m still banking on “Letters” making something of itself in this crucial stretch (and Warners has put their money where their mouth is at times), I begin to sense “The Queen” as positioning itself quite well for the Best Picture upset. The same minds are behind this push, remember, that ushered “Crash” to the finish line last season.

“Little Miss Sunshine” is approaching that sticky backlash stage. “Liked it, didn’t love it,” the most pathetically apologetic of “buts” when it comes to that deserving film’s buzz, could manage to keep the achievement muffled. But from what I’ve heard, it is the talk of the actors’ branch.

Adore “Babel” though I may (and admittedly, I have a hard time arguing against it outside of gut instinct), I still feel like this valiant film and this rigorous campaign will have a hard time making it over the hump of that “hated it” faction than they did in the nominations stage. I would love for them to prove me wrong…again.

“The Departed,” meanwhile, remains the most wishful thinking bet of them all. And yes, even considering Martin Scorsese’s DGA win Saturday night – an award telegraphed and bound for the esteemed veteran. This is my favorite film of the nominated five, but it so clearly appeals to too specific a spectrum. I would have to consider it at the bottom of the pile, fair or not, and really, it has been a Marty awards vehicle above and beyond a broader hopeful from…the…start.

That’s simply how the field seems to be shaking down for me. We’re still in that “anything can happen” stage, though that window is closing rapidly. Any one of the five could win, and none should be considered a surprise. How the guilds end up voting their winners could be an indication. Then again, it could simply be the parts reflective of the parts, rather than the sum. Something largely agreeable tends to be the last film standing, and if you can make a statement in so voting, it’s even better. To me, there are only two films this year that have that distinction, and so they top my chart this week.

Oh yeah, and nobody knows anything.

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Previous Oscar Columns:
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"