The film on the tip of everyone’s tongues is Tim Burton’s “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street,” but I confess I feel the touch of “Dreamgirls” all over this film’s hype. Indeed, I was one of a very few individuals unwilling to give Bill Condon’s film the benefit of the doubt a year in advance, and I must say, I’m tempted to go the same route with Burton’s latest. Regardless, I think it might be premature to think that just because a film has so much multi-branch potential it is somehow in the golden position. This year’s crop of Best Picture nominees shared, after all, the lowest number of total nominations in decades.

So where are the heavy-hitters going to make their home? Warner Bros. had the lion’s share of nominations this year, but if I were a betting man, I’d say Paramount Vantage and the Perception PR team will capitalize on what is clearly the most stacked studio lineup of the 2007 lot. Marc Forster’s “The Kite Runner” seems to be in the poll position, with the latest efforts from Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”) and the Coen brothers (“No Country for Old Men”) not far behind.

Sean Penn will come to the dance with “Into the Wild,” looking like “Grizzly Man” meets “Cast Away,” while funny bones will be tickled by Noah Baumbach (“Margot at the Wedding”) and Mike White (“Year of the Dog”). Early word on the dailies for Michael Winterbottom’s “A Mighty Heart” seems to be positive enough, so perhaps Angelina Jolie is a lead actress frontrunner for now?

Coming in right behind Vantage might well be Time Warner’s umbrella of companies, starting at the foot of the mountain in Burbank with Warner Bros. and an interesting array of unique offerings.

It seems one of my most anticipated films, Andrew Dominik’s “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” will finally make its way to screens. “Sweeney Todd” (a WB domestic excursion, mind you) will of course slash its way into the competition, while genre offerings will abound as well (“300,” “I Am Legend”). We’ll get another “Harry Potter” installment (“The Order of the Phoenix”), a Rob Reiner geriatric comedy that could be brilliant or terrible (“The Bucket List”), a great role for Jodie Foster in Neil Jordan’s return (“The Brave One”) and – of all things – a remake of “Mostly Martha” (“No Reservations”).

Picturehouse will try to build “Pan’s Labyrinth”-level steam with “Silk” and “La Môme,” among others, while New Line places its hopes on “Love in the Time of Cholera” and “His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass.” Chocked full of technical talent the latter is.

Paul Haggis haters might well explode if “In the Valley of Elah” hits the ground running for Warner Independent, or maybe the studio will find traction with Michael Haneke’s remake of his own film, “Funny Games.”

Of the entire Time Warner product, I expect WB’s “Michael Clayton” from director Tony Gilroy to be a big play, with George Clooney in the lead as a weathered veteran lawyer.

Speaking of Hollywood’s favorite liberal, he sets up directorial shop at Universal with “Leatherheads,” joining a who’s who of helming talent on Lankershim Blvd. Ridley Scott (“American Gangster”), Paul Greengrass (“The Bourne Ultimatum”), Shekhar Kapur (“The Golden Age”) and Garry Marshall (“Georgia Rule”) will all be vying for the Oscar strategic wit of Tony Angellotti and Michael Moses, but I’m betting they’ll all have to take a back seat to Mike Nichols’s “Charlie Wilson’s War” in that regard.

Uni’s dependent arm, Focus Features, looks to actually have something for Oscar marketers to work with this year following a mere handful of potential in 2006. The big dog on campus (considering the favored release date) looks to be Terry George’s “Reservation Road,” which might well mean the Oscar for Joaquin Phoenix after having to bow out two years ago to make way for Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Joe Wright, meanwhile, will follow up “Pride & Prejudice” with the Ian McKewan adaptation, “Atonement,” a vehicle that could mean a lot for the awards careers of Keira Knightly and, especially, James McAvoy.

David Cronenberg is ready to party again with “Eastern Promises,” working from a script by the brilliant and underrated Steven Knight. Ang Lee shrugs off the “Brokeback Mountain” disappointment with “Lust, Caution,” while Michael Cunningham’s “Evening” will make its way to screens, bursting with prime female roles. Michel Gondry’s “Be Kind Rewind” could merely be more kookiness, or it could be something that rings “their” bell again, while Don Cheadle has a real opportunity in “Talk to Me,” Kasi Lemmons’s “The Caveman’s Valentine” follow-up.

Finally, MGM and United Artists are leaping head-long into the fray, the former sharing duties with a number of Weinstein Company offerings, the latter heating up with Tom Cruise wielding the magic production wand. “Lions for Lambs” has everyone saying “hmmm,” while Robert Benton’s “The Feast of Love” could be a return to form – or not. Werner Herzog’s “Rescue Dawn” could be an opportunity for Christian Bale and especially Steve Zahn, and who’s not going to get a kick out of Ryan Gosling falling in love with a blow-up doll in “Lars and the Real Girl?” Academy Award nominee Ryan Gosling, that is.

Oh yeah, and Milos Forman’s “Goya’s Ghosts” finally has domestic distribution: Samuel Goldwyn Films.

Chirp. Chirp.

A few films still need a buyer. Francis Ford Coppola’s “Youth Without Youth,” should it hit screens, will do so on the tenth anniversary of “The Rainmaker.” Woody Allen’s “Cassandra’s Dream” is floating around. Alan Ball has an untitled “Towelhead” adaptation that could be huge. Richard Attenborough’s “Closing the Ring” might be more of the last gasp of Merchant-Ivory-ish fare in the spirit of “The White Countess” and “The Painted Veil,” and Sidney Lumet has “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” waiting for someone to take it seriously. Given the fate of the vastly underrated “Find Me Guilty,” should we hold our breath?

As for trends, it might very well be the year of the long title. Here’s a sampling:

“And When Did You Last See Your Father?”
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”
“Dragonlance: Dragons of Autumn’s Twilight”
“Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer”
“Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix”
“His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass”
“Love in the Time of Cholera”
“Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End”
“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”

Here’s hoping we don’t run out of breath by season’s end.

In any case, we’re off. 2006 is a memory and 2007 is lurking, waiting for its moment to jump up and scream, “Didn’t think you’d get away that easy, did you?!” And so it goes.

In the sidebar, you’ll find my eyes-closed, fingers-crossed stabs in the dark at where I think the individual races might go. I’ve also cooked up the year’s first charts (see below), a lengthy list of contenders (by category) and a films-by-studio rundown for your own researching pleasure.

Oh, and just to be as ridiculous as I can possibly be (I’m a completist, after all), I’ve gone ahead and made some winner predictions for the nutter in us all. Why the hell not?

And with that, I’m DONE. It’s time for an extended vacation. The Oscar season has officially exhausted me, and hopefully, after a couple of months’ rest, some relaxing travel, a few solid days on the shores of Kauai, maybe I’ll be ready to pick the boulder up again in July and start lugging it back up the mountain. Or maybe I’ll hold off until August. I don’t know yet. But in the meantime, enjoy the early look, and I’ll see you when I see you.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
2007 Year in Advance Winner Predictions

2006 Predictions Archive