The Silence is Deafening
Posting this column on a Sunday pretty much sums up my feelings about digging into the Oscar season with vigor just yet. This town is pretty empty at the moment, and as far as the awards season goes, you’d be hard-pressed to find a publicist willing to whisper sweet nothings about any of their awards hopefuls too soon. Even the more notorious spinsters are sound asleep. I’d rather catch some more z’s myself.
Then again, what better time to revamp category predictions than in a vacuum? I’ll get to that in a second.
As we push past 2007’s halfway point, I come to you a writer blissfully ignorant of much of the industry’s output the past six months. A road trip across 49 states kind of demands your attention more than consistently taking in filmed product does. I am, however, pulling myself out of the cobwebs and dusting off my awareness somewhat, reading some scripts, making some calls and getting the gears back in motion here at In Contention. But first, a few notes.
The first announcement has to do with the “Page to Screen” column, something of a misfire last season as I simply couldn’t keep up with the workload. Well this year I’ve brought in writer Brian Kinsley to tackle the feature in a slightly different vein, reviewing numerous screenplays for films coming down the stretch and offering his own points of analysis where their awards hopes might lie. Look for Brian’s initial column to launch next Tuesday, July 10, with a look at Aaron Sorkin’s scorching “Charlie Wilson’s War.”
Secondly, Gerard Kennedy will be back this season giving the technical categories the attention they deserve with his “Tech Support” column. However, Gerard is tackling some changes in his life that will make it impossible for him to cover the Toronto International Film Festival as he did so wonderfully last season. It’ll be a sad loss for the site, but with the bulk of information thrown at the web during the festival season, I think we’ll all manage.
With that out of the way, and with life changes in mind, I should mention that things could potentially be touch and go around here this fall. I stress the word “could.” It’ll be a learning process, really, to distinguish what may or may not suffer, because I have been accepted at the University of Southern California as a graduate student in Annenberg’s print journalism program. It goes without saying this will be no picnic, and it is obviously a new stage in my life that should be given the bulk of my attention. Regardless, I will know further into the season how the marriage of my professional and educational lives will (or will not) work out. I just wanted to make all of this known from afar.
Now, the Oscar season. Sigh…
Does anyone else get the feeling that we’re in for one heavy – and heady – slate of contenders? We can start at the top of agenda filmmaking with the four films that reflect political status quo in one way or another. These films can also be broken down into two groups of two fairly sufficiently.
Group one, the behind the scenes, congressional drama, political underbelly genre, if you will, holds in store Mike Nichols’s “Charlie Wilson’s War” and Robert Redford’s “Lions for Lambs.” If the former can be translated from a rather engaging screenplay and opened up somewhat by its clearly capable director, there is no reason to believe it can’t hold strong to that strange label of “frontrunner” it has enjoyed for some time. Meanwhile, every new piece of information we get on the more current production makes the film out to be a bit too overbearing for its own good, but that’s just my persoective.
The second group would consist of Paul Haggis’s “In the Valley of Elah” and Marc Forster’s “The Kite Runner,” films that deal with the emotional complexities of “real people,” shall we say, and how they are affected by their social and political climates. Each filmmaker has directed a film to Best Picture recognition. The Haggis film has already got some not-too-covert champions and will certainly be one of the big weepers of the year. The Forster film, somewhat beside the point of politics but certainly in a similar wheelhouse, could give “Elah” some stiff competition in that tear-shedding regard, but it also comes into play from a studio with a lot on its plate.
I get the feeling we’ll only see one film from each “group” slide into contention this year, but that’s just me. They could each systematically fall flat on their faces.
Looking at what’s come into the picture already this season, it seems that the Coen brothers’ “No Country for Old Men” is way ahead given critical reaction at the Cannes International Film Festival. Something so rooted in genre has a hell of a shot in a post-“Departed” world where Oscar is concerned. But elsewhere, beyond some performances of note, nothing has shown up that demands immediate consideration. And so, we seem all but guaranteed a bottom-heavy awards year.
Oh yeah - and all the threequels sucked.
Anyway, I’ve already dug in here more than I wanted to, so I’ll just let the updated charts tell the tale. They needed some cleaning up, in any case. I won’t be giving them another look until the beginning of August and then not again until just before the Toronto International Film Festival. I’d prefer not reliving last year’s nightmare of intense, weekly Oscar coverage beginning in JULY. But we there’s plenty to talk about in the meantime.
Be sure to check out Brian’s weekly screenplay reviews. And of course, there’s always movement on The Blog.
Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Comments
Welcome back, Kris. Sounds like an awfully nice road trip, and I'd like to offer my belated apologies for those Floridian drivers. Nuts, the whole lot of 'em.
As for contenders, this far out of the gate and without West Coast insight, I'm only really pulling for two films at the moment: "Funny Games" (although, given the nature of it, could easily see this going nowhere) and "Knocked Up" (a Mann nod would be most satisfying).
I did just finish reading "No Country...", and if the reviews and trailer are any indication, this has a lot going for it - Bardem, in the very least - but I'm fearing it goes the same route as "Three Burials...": adored, then ignored.
Posted by: William Goss![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 1, 2007 07:35 AM
Kris, congrats on getting accepted into USC Annenberg.
I'll be finishing up my final year there (I'm an undergraduate double-majoring in print journalism & cinema critical studies), and I think you'll enjoy the Annenberg school very much. It definitely trains you well.
And if you have room for electives, make sure you take a few classes from the cinema school. You have to experience Dr. Drew Casper at some point. ;-)
Posted by: John Y![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 1, 2007 02:08 PM
Ha, thanks for that, John. Looking forward to it.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 1, 2007 08:05 PM
Glad to hear Mr. Kennedy will be back! His work is very insightful. And while I'm glad you were accepted to Annenberg, Kris, I sincerely hope you will find the time to stick with In Contention because your analysis and knowledge is better than just about everyone else.
Posted by: Dan![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 2, 2007 12:58 AM
Congrats, I know a lot of great people from Annenberg, but I was straight up cinema myself, back in the day. I Agree about the cinema school electives if possible, but specifically sit-in or take Drew's Hitchcock class (many grad students take it). You may think you know his films, but you'd be surprised, and there's no subject Drew is better with or more passionate about. Last I knew it ran every other year in the fall, and who can pass up the oppurtunity to see 80-90 precent of Hitch's films on-screen with an audience. The off-Hitch year rotates (I think) with Spielberg, Scorsese, or Star Wars Phenomena focused classes, again great oppurtunity to revisit all those films on film (it helps that Norris is right next to the Annenberg center).
And look out for any interesting Rick Jewell classes, the man is wonderful to work with and learn from.
In terms of the column, interesting, I disagree that Departed broke any sort of genre barrier. Unforgiven, Silence of the Lambs and Lord of the Rings are earlier films that have shown a very openminded AMPAS of the last fifteen-twenty years, it's just rare that genre films are so brilliantly made and presented that it's an exception when they are brilliant (but AMPAS seems willing to embrace that brilliance fairly easily).
I would coin flip in Kite Runner over Valley of Elah, but who knows. I think something surprising may still sneak in, and I don't yet believe in the Sweeney Todd push, but it's an easy one to see succeeding. I don't think Golden Age will make it in, I imagine it'll default to mainly tech categories, but Blanchett looks very strong.
The Leading actor is so congested that I hope Javier Bardem stays supporting as I sense a switch to lead ala Gangs of New York or Last King of Scotland (that would also open up Tommy Lee Jones for Supporting). I do think McAvoy will be a strong contender, and it'll be interesting in this category especially to see which films and performances falter and which ones suddenly skyrocket.
Posted by: movielocke![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 2, 2007 11:55 AM
And I forgot, I think Coppola has a better than even chance of getting a BD nomination in the spirit of Lynch's nomination for Mulhullond Dr. Even if the film is too complex and arty for AMPAS at large, the Director's branch will reward their buddy for masterful artistry if the film succeeds as a film (even if it is different).
Posted by: movielocke![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 2, 2007 12:05 PM
movielocke, thanks for the grad thoughts. I may not have mentioned before that I was actually an undergrad film school student. My school actually had the third biggest film archive in the world behind the Library of Congress and some private collection in France. It has, sadly, recently been scattered to the winds, but I was lucky enough to catch pretty much all the classics (and modern classics) on the big screen in my time. I've since become jaded with the whole film school business, but certainly might enjoy some peripheral classes now that I'm nearly four years removed from it.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 2, 2007 02:57 PM
I agree. You don't need to be a graduate of a film school to make it big in Hollywood. Jennifer Hudson - she's an American Idol reject and she got the prestigious Oscar!
I'm predicting Margot at the Wedding to sweep the Oscars - Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress. That would be magnificent!
Posted by: numberina![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 7, 2007 02:47 AM
Kris,
Amazing news on being accepted to such a great program. I am so happy for you, though I must say, not surprised. You are an excellent journalist already... I'm sure more wonderful things are in your future.
Now regarding Your charts -- I can't wait to see how much they change come August. One thing's for sure: How could Angelina Jolie been left off your first list for best actress? She was breathtaking as Mariane Pearl and the critics raved. I have a feeling she'll be back on by October. Bets?
Anyway, welcome to Brian and so glad to have Gerard back. A great team at In Contention.
Posted by: elizlaw86![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 11, 2007 09:33 PM