Notes from the Eye of a Storm
The first casualties of the season have popped up in varying degrees, with “Elizabeth: The Golden Age,” “Lust, Caution” (despite a puzzling victory in Venice amongst rampant distaste), “Margot at the Wedding” and “Rendition” missing the mark demanded by Best Picture recognition. Crowd-pleasers have announced themselves in the form of “Into the Wild,” “Juno” and “Michael Clayton.” In one way or another, you could make the case that puzzle pieces are being revealed and moved into place. So why does the film awards landscape seem as malleable four days into the biggest early landmark as it did a week ago?
2007 has been, and seemingly will continue to remain, the most muted year in quite a long while where pegging the Oscar race is concerned. The playing field is so level as to suggest an unremarkable season, but damn if it doesn’t appear to be a paradoxically compelling fall to watch as films continue to reveal themselves. With this spirit in mind, I went out a little further onto various limbs this week in the prediction charts because, honestly, the canvas still feels vacant.
But there are things to consider.
Indeed, Paramount Vantage is four-square behind Sean Penn’s “Into the Wild,” getting encouraging notices from those who see the film. A huge Hal Holbrook push has been confirmed (after initial speculation on my part last week), while elements like the photography of Eric Gautier (a gorgeous tip of the hat to the American frontier), Emile Hirsch’s leading turn and a score from Michael Brook, supported by original content from Eddie Vedder, are all specific focuses in the coming campaign.
Speaking of Vantage, the studio unveiled spectacular materials this week for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood.” A solid teaser poster and a damn fine second trailer announced what could be another ambitious undertaking from the director, one that seemingly boasts yet another searing Daniel Day-Lewis portrayal at the heart of the matter.
Meanwhile, the Miramax camp knows it has a critical and likely popular hit in the Coen brothers’ “No Country for Old Men,” so they are taking the opportunity to drum up some anticipation and consideration for Julian Schnabel’s Cannes hit “The Diving Bell and Butterfly” and Ben Affleck’s directorial debut “Gone Baby Gone.” The latter has the studio pretty high on Amy Ryan’s performance. It makes some sense, considering the actress has the most potent role in the script and she’ll be popping up in Variety’s coveted “Top 10 Actresses to Watch” special in the coming weeks.
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” has to have the Warner Bros. lot considering ways to push it toward higher success than in the technical races. Part of me thinks that singular work from Andrew Dominik could be something the directors’ branch will embrace, while acting recognition in Venice could mean something to consider where Brad Pitt and perhaps Casey Affleck are concerned. But the studio is pushing two films that seem to fail at garnering a consensus decision amongst the critical community, so it’s tricky for last year’s victors.
The real glut of potential seems to sit with Vantage and Fox Searchlight Pictures, the former covered in depth already and the latter hoping to secure 4/5 of the original screenplay category, among other things. Other studios are either hoping to spin early entries into something to work with (“Hairspray” at New Line) or otherwise continue to hold cards to their chest (“Sweeney Todd” at Dreamworks, “American Gangster” at Universal – though no one at the studio has seen much of “Charlie Wilson’s War” yet).
But there’s still a whole lot of Toronto and an entire season to wade through before answers of any real consequence start rolling in. I guess…we wait.
Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Oscar Predictions Archive
Previous Oscar Columns:
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"
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