Kris, Burton is in the charts in the main page but not in the chart page.
And, is it CONFIRMED that Helena Bonham Carter goes lead?

Do you think Philip Seymour Hoffman's performance in Charlie Wilson's War will overshadow both of his lead performances this year? Because after seeing Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, I find it hard to believe that he isn't at least amongst the ten best male performances.

It is really interesting to note how many performers could conceivably find themselves in multiple categories this year: Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, Cate Blanchett, Russell Crowe, Christian Bale (if they campaign his 3:10 to Yuma role as supporting), Casey Affleck. And yet there are so many quality performances this year, that it is unlikely that any of them will appear in both.

Daho: Thanks, Burton needs to be ousted in favor of Schnabel in the sidebar.

And nothing is "confirmed" until we start seeing FYC ads, but yes, the studio plans to push Helena as a lead.

Why are you moving No Country for Old Men down? It's one of the strongest contenders of the year. It's definitely stronger than the unseen Sweeney Todd and Charlie Wilson's War.

I guess it's lucky there's no accountability for ridiculous predictions.

Sigh...any time you want to add something of substance to the conversation, Burton, feel free. As of late, all you've proven yourself capable of bringing to the table is unnecessary bitching and empty insults. Though your stab at an insult here actually makes no sense in and of itself. Work on the semantics a little more diligently next time.

To recap, and to answer your concerns, the film is not, in my view, something the Academy would go for as quickly as the critical community. And I'm slowly recognizing that others are of the same or a similar opinion. Tom O'Neil's recent post might be the tip of that iceberg.

As for Sweeney Todd and Charlie, there's no questioning the fact that, should those films open and disappoint entirely, their spots would be up for grabs. But rest assured, just because there aren't a lot of opinions in print on the former, doesn't mean plenty of people who HAVE seen it aren't talking about its merits and, indeed, its Oscar potential. Not all the buzz is on the net.

Have fun with that prediction. My prediction is "No Country" goes back on your board in less than a month.

Theses aren't just any critics hailing "No Country", it's Peter Travers and Rober Ebert, who are notorious for their AMPAS similarity.

And your argument about the disparity between the critics and AMPAS is severely flawed. Sideways had nothing else going for it, and yet was a serious contender. Letters from Iwo Jima, The Queen etc. I don't know what bizzarre parallel universe you are living in, but where I'm from, critical success HELPS a film's chances.

Bottom line, Sweeney and Charlie Wilson's War are unknown commodities. Juno has yet to capture the popular zeitgeist and needs to if it has even a miniscule shot. And wasn't it you that said Atonement wasn't the sweeping epic everyone thinks it is?

Kudos for going out on a limb, but have no illusions: you are in the distinct minority and for very legitimate reasons. The smart money is always on the known commodity

Having now seen "Juno," I certainly think it has potential to be a dark-horse nominee, but I'm given pause by the fact that the older members of the audience seemed to not laugh very much and on the way off shrugged it off as "cute" while the college-age crowd was apt to give more all-out raves.

Kris is right in saying "Atonement" isn't the sweeping epic everyone thinks it is, but it's still a sure-fire nominee, and something the Academy's going to eat up.

I still think the general message (and thoughts of the Sheriff Bell character) of "No Country" are going to resonate with the elderly Academy crowd, and it's also one of the few contenders that can be labeled as "Exciting" which they tend to love. I'd still bet any amount of money it gets into the 5, perhaps over "Sweeney" or "Juno."

I have to agree with Kris. I know with all the critical praise going for this film it looks foolish not to include it in predictions, but after everyone has seen the film, there will be a different concensus. It won't be the lock everyone is making it out to be. This is definitely going to be a contender for Best Picture throughout the season, but audiences will be complaining about the third act. Everyone I've talked to who's seen it has been disappointed by the ending, and thinks it really falls apart, and one of the Coen Brothers even mentioned on a certain scene at the end of the film that the ambiguity wasn't even intended, so people are praising this film far too much than for what it is. It's an exceptionally well crafted film with strong performances, but the writing really falters in the end, and while this film will have its fans, I see this going the Little Children route. I'm going back and forth between three films for my number 4 and 5 slot: No Country, Sweeney Todd, and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead.

Kris has a good point but at the same time I feel that by singling ut "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "Michael Clayton", he is going after relatively weak targets.

If (or should I say "when") these don't get picked for Best Picture, not many people are going to be stunned. These movies are a lot more likely to get (or even win) acting and screenwriting nods anyway. Even taking the Sidney Lumet factor into consideration, BTDKYD is not Best Picture strong (but who knows, if they REALLY like Russia's 12 they might recall what a master Lumet really is and honor him with a nod ;) ).

"No Country for Old Men" is a slightly different beast but by including it at second place on the best director category (seems perfectly reasonable) and at 6th place on the Best Picture Charts, it almost seems like an attempt to have it both ways.

It's also got that ever changing Ebert factor going for it. Since, he invoked the word "Fargo" we know it's likely to be his #1 movie of the year. That is, unless he invokes the word "Kane" and "There Will Be Blood" will becomes his favorite movie of the decade.

But if the Roger cannot speaketh will the AMPAS heareth???

So, not too much risk in those predictions.

Much bolder is his prediction with "Juno", but I haven't seen it yet so I don't know if it's got that LMS appeal.

Quickly scanning the charts, another name pops up at me, that of Julian Schnabel. That seems like a fresh and a perfectly reasonable prediction. I think DGA and directors in general might really like his work (and the fact that it's supported by Janusz Kaminski can only help). Still, I'd be a lot more likely to embrace this pick if France didn't pick "Persepolis" over "Diving Bell" and the movie had a higher profile (or, at the very least, Johnny Depp who at one time was supposed to star in it).

Which bring me to my next point, which why I think "Sweeney Todd" is likely to crash spectactularly and is the most likely to be snubbed in all categories. Sadly, I'm out of time (and space) so I shall return to this topic in my next post.