12/3 Chart Update
As we update the charts once more before the National Board of Review kicks off the precursor circuit in earnest, we raise as many questions this week as we answer.
Some still think "Sweeney Todd" has a Best Picture shot. I do not, but I'm not foolish enough to take it out of the top ten until more opinions begin to filter in. The HFPA are fans (and will nominate it), but it lacked the certain something it needed to have for AMPAS Best Picture placement -- in my humble opinion, of course.
"Charlie Wilson's War" still has its sights set on a nod, despite comedy/musical placement at the globes (a designation some behind closed doors are quite happy about). Ad buys are all over the place across the net (if you pulled up Red Carpet District over the weekend, you were probably met with a martini glass with an American flag stuck in the olive). Some think it can fight it's way in, but then you have four comedies duking it out for what is typically one slot ("Hairspray" and "juno" being the other two).
I'm predicting "The Kite Runner" for a nod in the top five, and feeling better and better about it, actually. But you'll surely take note of the only other predicted category being Best Director. I know. But I can't really feel out the other areas for the film just yet, so for now, I'm leaving it wide open (I'll try to give the film another look this week with fresher eyes). We'll know a little more in the coming weeks, but in the acting races, the challenge for the studio will be getting voters to stop saying "I love the guy that played Baba" and start saying "Homayon Ershadi was great as Baba." They have to fill the guy's name in on the ballot, after all.
The (perceived) slippage of "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Sweeney Todd" is the best news of the year for films like "Into the Wild," "No Country for Old Men" (still not guaranteed, no matter what how badly the media wants it), "Michael Clayton" and even "Hairspray," all still hoping for a slice of the Best Picture pie. A collective sigh could be heard across town from publicists rooting for those two to fail, but the funny news is, they haven't really failed. They've just come in just under expectations, and now the perspective shifts and we'll see how they play through the last month of the year.
Two final notes before we get to the charts:
1) You'll notice in the sidebar that I've updated the documentary feature and foreign language film category predictions. These categories do not have charts but will be updated in the sidebar every week just the same.
2) Believe it or not, it's that time of year. So a week from today, Monday, December 10, I'll beegin wrapping up the year here at In Contention with the top ten list (coming a week earlier than last year, believe it or not). Wednesday, per tradition, I'll offer up a personal Oscar ballot, and Friday we'll conclude everything with a list of personal winners/awards for the year. Can't believe it's already here.
Now, the charts:
Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Oscar Predictions Archive
Previous Oscar Columns:
11/27/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"
Comments
Kris, you;re smart not to be taking Sweeney Todd off your predict list till more reviews come in, but at the same time, in keeping with your apparent mission to be the "Anti-O'Neill" you call its reception "below expectations." A lot of people have read all the same reactions/blogs that you have and I'm just shocked that you or anyone would characterize them that way. You are clearly having a hard time backing down from your initial assertion that it would be a non-factor in the awards races. Oh well, at least you have Depp in the Best Actor category now.
Posted by: cass | December 3, 2007 03:31 AM
I saw The Golden Compass over the weekend, and while it's no LOTR, it's a visual and audial masterpiece. It could get a lot of tech noms, and I hope it does.
Posted by: Hardy | December 3, 2007 05:44 AM
I saw The Golden Compass over the weekend, and while it's no LOTR, it's a visual and audial masterpiece. It could get a lot of tech noms, and I hope it does.
Posted by: Hardy | December 3, 2007 05:44 AM
The perceived slippage of Sweeney Todd? Aren’t you the only one who hasn’t given it a rave? The reviews coming out this morning are even more hysterically in love with the film.
I attended a screening yesterday evening and the audience ate it up. Huge applause at the end (which seemed sudden…) of the picture. My own feelings on the film are actually closer to yours, but to say that it’s somehow slipping in the race is just not true.
Posted by: JackTorrance | December 3, 2007 07:11 AM
Guys, the only reactions to films aren't necessarily the ones in print...
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | December 3, 2007 10:33 AM
Also, Poland's full review, which is on MCN today (and spells the whole film out), is much more measured and even though he clearly likes the film, he isn't willing to say it's guaranteed a Best Picture slot.
David Carr also liked it very much, but doesn't see it as a Best Picture. You can go both ways on a film.
"Perceived slippage" doesn't necessarily mean reaction to a film. Morever, reaction to Oscar potential.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | December 3, 2007 11:05 AM
I understand you now Kris.
Posted by: JackTorrance | December 3, 2007 11:50 AM
Doesn't "The Kite Runner" demind anyone else of "Hotel Rwanda". Just without two nominatable stars like Cheadle and Okonedo?
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 | December 4, 2007 03:40 AM
er, "remind" obviously.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 | December 4, 2007 03:41 AM
Kris, I hope you're right on Philip Bosco. He really shocked me in The Savages. I expected to like his performance, but he really went way beyond anything I expected. It's a remarkable, strange, and - as I recall you said - brave performance. While he and Hal Holbrook battle it out for my personal award, I hope Oscar takes notice for both of these guys doing stellar work.
Posted by: soderbergh98 | December 5, 2007 06:15 AM
You obviously have not seen the movie"Control" can't even imagine anyone who knows about movies and acting, not putting it high on their lists. Samantha Morton and Sam Riley, were WAY better than almost all of the actors you have put in their perspective categories, not even close either. See the movie, it should be required for all movie critics!
Posted by: Just me | December 8, 2007 09:14 PM
Well, "just me," you obviously haven't been reading have you? I've been a vocal proponent for "Control" since day one. I talk about the film and the love out there for Sam's performance when I can (like this item at Variety regarding a Q&A I moderated last week with Sam at a SAG screening: http://www.variety.com/blog/890000489/post/280018428.html) and I was the first (and so far only) perseon to stick Morton on my predictions this year (http://www.incontention.com/predictions/charts/071015_main.html).
So...yeah...I;ve seen it. I like it.
All of that said, I also understand how the process works, and Sam has been out here only twice for PR on the film. Oscar predictions happen because of saturation, and God love Sam and his brilliant performance, he just isn't concerned with the dog and pony show. That will likely keep him out of the running, but I don't think it's a stretch to see the SAG go for him in a surprise move, just judging from the two enthusiastic SAG screenings of the film I've attended this year.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | December 8, 2007 11:28 PM