well, i couldn't be happier about being wrong as far as best pic is concerned (and who would have thunk that the NBR of all orgs would be wise enough to crown no country!?). I was also right about ellen page for breakthrough and hairspray not being short-listed. huzzah for me... (crawls back into hole).

Only 2 NBR winners have missed a BP nomination in the past 20 years. Neither of them had the awards credentials of NCFOM...

Time to change your charts, maybe?

Do you think they decided to keep top 10 separate and have 11 films total or if there simply was a tie like in 1994.

Already made mention of that little tid-bit at Variety, limey. Fact remains No Country needed Charlie to miss and breathed a sigh of relief last week when that film came up a little short. And it doesn't hurt that Academy members aren't loving Diving Bell.

Kris, where are you getting that info on Diving Bell? I'm actually hearing the exact opposite, and am raising Diving Bell on my charts accordingly.

Sorry, but I just HAD to gloat... don't mean to be a dick about it.

In the meantime Charlie Wilson needs a defibrillator stat! Some critics awards are definitely needed if it's going to do anything with the mild bump it gets from a probable Globe nomination for Best Comedy.

What are you hearing about Before the Devil Knows You're Dead? Is the buzz for Lumet dying down? Do you think he still has a shot at the "lone director" slot?

Right now my predictions for Best Piture are Atonement, Sweeney Todd, Juno, No Country for Old Men, and...

The fifth spot is anyone's guess. I feel the first four are pretty much locks however.

No Country has strong critical backing, and box office appeal. Atonement has been the frontrunner all along. Juno figures to be this years Little Miss Sunshine. The early buzz on Sweeney Todd is very positive (not to mention passionate). If it does good box office, I can't see how the Academy will be able to ignore it. That last spot...well, before the NBR I was kind of leaning toward American Gangster, but now I'm not quite so sure. Maybe the Diving Bell and the Butterfly or Into the Wild. But the way I see it, the Best Picture race will be a three film competition between Atonement, Sweeney, and No Country For Old Men (even though I didn't care for it a great deal).

Sasha really likes Michael Clayton, but I'm not completely sold on it quite yet. I do think George Clooney is now a lock in the Best Actor race, however.

Day-Lewis, Depp, and Clooney...what a tight call.

I'm pulling for Depp, but I think Bill the Butcher...sorry, the "Oil Man", will probably end up walking with the Oscar.

Still, wouldn't it be surreal to possibly have both Depp and Burton rewarded on the same night, seeing how closely there entire careers have been intertwined with one another. The Academy could decide to make it happen.

Sorry for all the posts. I'm just so excited about this years Oscar race that I can't contain myself.

Lovelove the Julie Christie pick and the obvious boost for Assassination of Jesse James.

HOWEVER I really would like to see some of these critics groups through some love to Once. An Original Screenplay Win would have a much greater impact for Once than a series of wins for the presumed-nominee Juno.

wow. throw.

Well, I also know your source Scott. But thing is, there has only been one major Academy screening for the film that was attended by more than a few members (usually those sporadic screenings include mostly guild people and a few AMPAS members). And this weekend's screening apparently (from two sources) didn't slay.

But they're your charts. Do your thing.

"Juno figures to be this years Little Miss Sunshine."

Except it's not. LMS wasn't primarily a teen flick, and LMS had three prior oscar nominees in it's cast (Arkin, Collette, Kinnear) not to mention someone like Steve Carell.

Just sayin' is all...