No There Will be Blood and Daniel Day Lewis? No Jesse James? I thought they favored more cerebral and ambitious films.

I think they'll go with "Atonement." Just a hunch.

ellen page will win the nbr's award for breakthrough. take that to the bank.

and for reasons unbeknownst to me, the nbr is considering persepolis only in the animated category at the moment.

AND the phil donahue doc. and no end in sight are the only docs that have a chance with them.

marian cotilliard will win for la vie en rose.

the kite runner will win best picture. hairspray wont be short-listed.

my apologies for the consecutive posts... im done, now. but my guesses are as good as gold in this bizarre derby.

All this "will win," "will win." You a member, Aguirre? Or just taking guesses like the rest of us?

Didn't know that about Persepolis. And totally blanked on Page, so you're probably spot on there. Will adjust.

I think we are underestimating Laura Linney's chances. Like you showed with The Hoffman, they like to honor people who have had success in more than one film over the course of a year, and Linney has starred in four different releases (Breach, Jindabyne, The Nanny Diaries, The Savages).

I don't really see Amy Adams having a chance. If not Linney, I would go with Cotillard or Christie.

kris, as the voting hasn't finished yet my predictions - despite my silly confidence - are simply very educated guesses. i will say that i know for certain that page's only competition for breakthrough is amy adams, that lake of fire has an absolutely ZERO percent chance of taking home the doc prize, that the members formed more of a consensus on kite runner and the acting in jesse james than anything else all year, and that the bit about persepolis is a clerical error that i don't believe they'll address by the time they vote. i think diving bell will take their foreign prize, and re: the savages... PSH / Laura Linney certainly have a shot - don't underestimate the former's very winning performance in charlie wilson's war.

...sorry for all the input ,but it's not often i can write about these senseless year-end shenanigans with any confidence...

Aguirre,

Although you do say some very pertinent information about the NBR, I am unsure how you know such inside information about the likes and dislikes of the 2007 films by the NBR.

Phillip Seymor Hoffman has recently won prizes from the NBR twice so despite the quality of his work this year I'm not counting on another prize.

As for Breakthrough female, I can see Marion Cotillard showing up there particulairly if Juno wins best ensemble. Also Saoirse Ronan might also show here.

I might be remembering incorrectly here, but aren't foreign language films ineligible for the top 10?

I think you're right, and I thought about that earlier today.

Considering they gave the best actress award to Diane Keaton for Something's Gotta Give a few years back I tend to think they'll give it to either Amy Adams (fun, romantic comedy) or Julie Christie (respected legend giving great perf).