Kris, if Blood sweeping the LAFCC means nothing, what do you make of these statistic, according to Sasha Stone:

Almost every film that won Picture, Actor, and Director would go on to be nominated for Best Picture for the Oscars, and all of these films are important ones.

The only two that didn't get Best Pic nods got other Oscar noms:

Sideways
Saving Private Ryan
LA Confidential
Secrets and Lies
Leaving Las Vegas [won Best Actor, nominated for three others]
Pulp Fiction
Unforgiven (won best pic)
Bugsy
Goodfellas
Do the Right Thing [nominated for two Oscars]
E.T.
Terms of Endearment [won]
Kramer vs. Kramer [won]
Network

Phreelee, the list is not fully accurate in that she missed Brazil, which wasn't nominated, and Brokeback Mountain, which was.

Nevertheless, I think that the LAFCA IS important. I'm just surprised Kris. You were so insistent There Will Be Blood was no Oscar film. And now it's number 3 on your list. It's time you go with the general concensus (which you finally are doing).

Hahaha. Going with the generaly consensus is not the best plan. Like I said, to steer clear of comments saying I'm trying to sway the race by predicting outside the box, I'm just offering a list of charts that reflect the "consensus" as of now. But like I said, I'm not happy with any of them and rest assured, unless Blood wins the NYFCC in a short while, they'll be drastically different next week. The waters are just oo muddy right now for me to predict soundly, I feel.

General consensus wouldn't have allowed a Letters from Iwo Jima prediction last year. Guess I was out to lunch on that one, too...

Yes, the general consensus was wrong about the Dreamgirls/Letters from Iwo Jima thing, but you dropped Letters from your Best Picture predictions as well. There are always surprises. Either way, you were predicting outside the box by saying No Country for Old Men was not a shoo in for Best Picture. I'm starting to think you were wrong about that. But There Will Be Blood, having won the LAFCA, will at least remain in the top 7. It never should have been taken off the charts.

I dropped it because of "general consensus." More and more, I feel like i need to stop listening to the "voices," so to speak.

And yes, blas, it should have been taken off the charts. Have you even seen it? People who were doing cartwheels over the film even thought it had no shot. And LA means something, but it's still possible it'll get the lone director not (the directors WILL get behind it). Nothing is in stone, so don't come around here telling me that I should have done this or I should have done that. Get your own website and pontificate away if that's your desire.

As for No Country, I've conceded all along that the critics groups would rise up in support of this film. Who figured they wouldn't? It would be foolish to think otherwise. But the Academy does what they want to do when they want to do it.

This isn't my first BBQ.

Also, when "American Splendor" won best pic rom LA in 2003, would it have "at least remained int he top 7?" Ditto "Brazil" in 1985? Please. Just because a critics group speaks, doesn't mean you have to jump...common mistake that's being AMPLIFIED this season, largely because there are so many newbie prognosticators on board.

Still no Jennifer Garner in the top 10 of supporting actress? She's looking pretty good right now.

I recall you were the first to say There Will Be Blood had no best picture chances, and everyone followed your lead, but that's just what I remember.

I could start a blog but it'd maybe do me little good because I do not have the reputation that you have. You've spent a lot of time building to get to where you are, and in my opinion, you are one of the most important Oscar bloggers out there. I wouldn't be visiting both your sites if that weren't the case.

And American Splendor only won two awards from LAFCA, as for There Will Be Blood took home 4 and nearly 3 others. Has there been that large of a sweep at LAFCA? That speaks a lot. As does it's 6 nominations from Chicago and the win from NYFCO. Brazil, well we all know the story about that one. The original release bombed and the director's cut was lucky enough to get a release, let alone get nominations.

And I'm not jumping just because LAFCA spoke up. I've been thinking There Will Be Blood would get a BP Oscar nomination since April. I still feel you shouldn't have dropped it from #3 or #4 or w/e it was originally at to number #11 or #12, and then just push it all the way back up to #3 like that. But that's just my opinion, and I'm just a reader. Take it with a grain of salt if you still feel differently.

Alright, blas, your opinion has been taken into account. I still think the film will turn voters off -- considerably more so than No Country. See it, then let's talk.