Finally, you put TWBB on the charts. It's amazing how long it took you to realize it was a lock.

The big question is who will take that 5th spot - Diving Bell or Juno. I'm intrigued that you decided on Juno, because as we were discussing the other day, you were leaning toward Diving Bell.

With the PGA noms that came out today, I'm now leaning toward Diving Bell, but it really could go either way.

Spoken like a true amateur, Unison. Nothing is ever a lock.

John: Going with Juno was like a flip of the coin, honestly.

What strikes me as weird is that you had TWBB on your charts *until* you actually saw it, and then you lost all faith in it... Looking over your charts, it's tracked like this:

7, 4, 6, 4, 3, 2, off, off, off, off, off, 3, 9, 10, 4

It's taken the ratification of virtually every guild to make you set your personal gut feeling that it's not an "Oscar movie" aside.

Obviously nothing is a lock (see Dreamgirls), but you've been off-base here for a while, well behind the palpable buzz on the film.

Meanwhile, it's just as bizarre how much of a free ride you (and everyone) have given Atonement, despite seeing it back in September, and seeing that it was obviously not perfect, and despite early snubs from critics groups and SAGS. That movie's tracked like this:

4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 1, 5, 7

Again, you've finally come to your senses, realizing the film is not a likely BP nominee, but this notion that it's a lock because of its appropriateness as a nominee has been blinding a lot of people all year.

Just food for thought...

I really think that you are overestimating the chances of Into the Wild, particularly in the technical categories. I mean there is no way in my mind that Into the Wild gets a sound mixing nomination and No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood don't (I am not saying they are locks, but I would definitely see them getting nominated before Into the Wild).

Also, while I think Into the Wild will end up being nominated for Best Picture, I do think that NCFOM, Michael Clayton, Juno, and There Will Be Blood, are all more secure than Into the Wild. I think those four are pretty much locked up (I know there are no locks, but I have gone over it in my head and I can't see a list of nominations that doesn't include those four films) and Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and Atonement are all battling for that 5th slot.

If Juno doesen't get a nomination in the Best Director category (which it probably will not) it will only likely garner 2 other nominations (Best Actress, and Original Screenplay - 3, if it gets a Best Picture nom). Can a film with only three nominations land a Best Picture nomination??

I doubt it. More likely are Diving Bell or Atonement.

I agree Blood, No Country, Wild, and Clayton are probably in, even though if Clayton didn't make it, I wouldn't be too shocked.

Unison: I've never called anything a lock, just predicted on the basis of my own discernment as always. The same discernment that misses some things and catches others that many fail to see until it's "obvious." But it's too easy to Monday morning quarterback a situation.

chasgoose: Regarding your comment on the sound of Into the Wild, well, it takes the knowledge that sound legend Mike Minkler is more behind his work on that film than in a heavy0hitter like "American Gangster" (and certainly the more SOUND film of the two) to understand that you're wrong there. But, given that it clearly isn't information that you're privy to, it makes sense for you to say something like that.

Paddy: Simple equation of Oscar history. Go back and look at the tallies of Field of Dreams and Four Weddings and a Funeral. That said, as I indicated, it's a coin flip for me on the fifth film between Juno and Wild.

Also, Unison, since when are films that are "obviously not perfect" somehow unlikely for a Best Picture Oscar nomination? Seems to be the status quo year in and year out, actually, so there isn't a real line of logic against giving "Atonement" a "free ride" until the guilds knocked it heavily.

Kris,

Forget the Oscars, which director in your opinion crafted the best film this year??

P.T. Anderson??

Julian Schnabel??

Someone else??

If you could only pick one.

I know who Mike Minkler is thanks. Admittedly I didn't know that he is more behind Into the Wild than American Gangster (which I agree has better sound, regardless of the fact that it is an even worse movie than Into the Wild) but still, No Country For Old Men has such well-designed sound mixing that also draws attention to itself that IMHO there is no way Into the Wild gets nominated before it. Now that I know that Minkler is supporting Into the Wild, I am willing to give you that it would have a better chance than the superior sound design in There Will Be Blood, but still, not better than No Country For Old Men.

I'm not sure how one could screen There Will Be Blood and NOT consider it to be a hard sell for Oscar. I'm pretty shocked they're going for it myself.

Though if what everybody seems to think is going happen does happen (TWBB, No Country, Michael Clayton, and even Diving Bell for Best Pic), it seems that the critics will have retained their influence after all. I'm not slamming you for predicting the opposite, Kris (it was as valid a call as any), but it is worth noting.

You have six films listed as the five front-runners. I definitely understand your logic regarding using the guild nominations as a guide, but I simply cannot imagine Atonement not being nominated. I was never expecting a directing bid for Joe Wright but Picture and Adapted Screenplay just seemed like such common sense nods for so long... Maybe this is an instance of internet buzz not matching the minds of the voters? Reverse Dreamgirls effect?

I am also still holding out for some Laura Linney love. I think one of the biggest surprises of the season (aside from the complete lack of attention for Tommy Lee Jones) is that despite no clear fifth performance she has been ignored. Counting the following as most likely:

Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Ellen Page
Angelina Jolie

I would say the fifth slot is between Laura, Keira, and Cate. Knightley's performance really is supporting and with the general lack of enthusiasm for Atonement I don't see her getting in. And really? Elizabeth: The Golden Age? I know that it makes sense looking at the precursors but the Academy definitely likes Linney.

Let me just go to the heart of the matter. How many academy members are you actually talking to? What is this chatter? Is it online chatter? Becuase that would seem to skew far more to young voters. Are you talking to 5,50, or even 500 voters? That'd seem ridiculous, and yet if you were it'd still be less than 1% of the voting population. So, may I humbly suggest that, due to your constant naysaying of "No Country" despite its unparalelled consistancy at every precursor, that your sampling pool might be off.

And I like the CYA mention that academy voters feel like they "need" to vote for No Country. Oddly enough, no other voting pool has seemed to mind voting for it. You were and still are off on No Country, and when it wins I will gloat horribly.