Another year another set of wins...and another look ahead at what's in store NEXT year.

It's never too late to take a long gander at what we might see dominating the film awards landscape in 365 days, and with that in mind, I've been doing my usual mulling over the possibilities for a few weeks to put together the sadly thorough examination of the 2008-09 award season that follows. Let's get into it. There are some major considerations to take into account. right off the top.

Like Leonardo DiCaprio, for instance, who is set to be the entertainer of the year. With performances in "Body of Lies" (Ridley Scott) and "Revolutionary Road" (Sam Mendes), DiCaprio is working with a duo of awards proven talent this yearr. Perhaps that will work against him, much like it did in 2006, and no major Oscar success will come knocking. But we'll wait until we see the performances. Each of them could be enticing.

This year's Best Picture Oscar victor Scott Rudin is back again, by the way, with "Revolutionary Road," recently inherited by Paramount Vantage and probably one of the true "frontrunners" this far out that we could put our finger on. The only other film in Vantage's arsenal is Edward Zwick's "Defiance," which could simply b a commercial success, but might find its way to multiple nods like "The Last Samurai" and "Blood Diamond" in recent years.

Elsewhere, if we're really going to play the "frontrunner game," it looks like Universal Pictures is in the driver's seat once again, this time with Ron Howard's "Frost/Nixon." Does anyone think that Frank Langella isn't likely headed for Oscar glory as Richard Nixon here? Meanwhile, Uni has Clint Eastwood's "Changeling" (awards fodder for lead actress Angelina Jolie, if nothing else) and a little flick called "The Express," which could pull some sentiment here and there.

The next juggernaut to watch out for has to be DreamWorks' "The Soloist," from "Atonement" helmer Joe Wright. Word has it that Jamie Foxx has dropped a lot of weight to play a Juliard trained musician with dreams of performing at L.A.'s Disney Concert Hall, while Robert Downey, Jr. will support as LA Times columnist Steve Lopez. Watch out.

But also in the Paramount wheelhouse is David Fincher's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," from a script that I know for a fact Eric Roth is quite proud of and, frankly, is giving me some strange vibes. This could be a GIANT in the awards season, with Brad Pitt starring and Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton in the periphery. And it could be a weeper, too.

The Weinstein Company has two shots at making their first stab at major Oscar success with Stephen Daldry's "The Reader," starring Kate Winslet (also set to have a great year), and Anthony Minghella's "The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency," which might offer a great role for Jill Scott. I'd bank on the former, if anything.

And speaking of Kidman, there is always Baz Luhrmann's "Australia," 20th Century Fox's first true shot at considerable awards success in quite some time. An epic set in the outback, this could be one to watch across the board. Hugh Jackman also stars.

Focus Features has Gus Van Sant's "Milk," a Harvey Milk biopic starring Sean Penn that may or may not prove too "artsy" for the Academy's taste, while New Line will have high hopes for Ed Harris' western "Appaloosa," starring Harris and this year's Best Actor nominee Viggo Mortensen. I'm personally looking forward to that one.

Then, of course, there are the blockbusters to consider. The top two daddies look to be "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," part of a franchise that's always good for sound, score and design categories, and "The Dark Knight," which could offer one of the most daring performances of the year from the late Heath Ledger (as the Joker). Supporting Actor honors could await him posthumously. Other tent poles to watch in various craft categories are "Jon Favreau's "Iron Man," Fox's "The Incredible Hulk," and the Wachowskis brothers' "Speed Racer."

And a final note on the indies. It seems Miramax Films, this year's big winner with "No Country for Old Men," has John Patrick Shanley's "Doubt" and Fernando Mereilles' "Blindness" on the slate, with the former looking like the real pic to watch. Ben Kingsley and Penelope Cruz will burn up the screen in "The Dying Animal," which might be good for performance categories, while Ryan Murphy will give it another go with his adaptation, "Dirty Tricks." And don't forget Sundance sensation "Hamlet 2," which was acquired by Focus Features.

Oh, and speaking of Focus Features...I don't yet know what to make of Steven Spderbergh's Che Guevera duo, "The Argentine" and "Guerilla," but they're worth keeping an eye on. Benicio Del Toro has to be considered someone to watch for a lead actor berth in one or the other. And the studio also has this year's golden boys on the slate with the Coen brothers' "Burn After Reading," starring George Clooney and Brad Pitt (another performer with a big year ahead of him).

So there we have it. A first stab at surveying the land ahead. It's not as in-depth as usual, but it'll do for now. So many things can and, certainly, will change that I'd prefer not drive myself crazy. Nevertheless, I have laid out my first set of prediction charts in all categories and present them to you now. But, mind you, they are to be taken with the biggest grain of salt imaginable. The only film from last year's year-in-advance column to survive until the end was "Michael Clayton." Meanwhile, films like "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Reservation Road" were considered great bets.

You see how this works?

So, enjoy the charts and the fallout coverage of the 2007-08 season. We'll be wrapping things up here within the week and, before long, it'll be time to do this whole song and dance all...over...again. For now, here's what I'm thinking:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders (by category)
Year in Advance Winner Predictions

I'm calling it a night. A final reactions column will be up in the morning, along with the year in advance column. Though, obviously. you can check out year in advance predix in the sidebar for now. More later. Zzzzzz...

Alright, so that's a wrap on the 80th annual Academy Awards. A snooze for the most part, but I had a hell of a time doing the podcasts with John and the boys. I hope you enjoyed them as well. I'll be back later on to finalize the season, and then, of course, check back here tomorrow for our annual Year in Advance Oscar column.

How I did: 18/24

And the Oscars went to:

Best Costume Design: "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Best Animated Feature Film: "Ratatouille"
Best Makeup: "La Vie en Rose"
Best Visual Effects: "The Golden Compass"
Best Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Short Film - Live Action: "The Mozart of Pickpockets"
Best Short Film - Animated: "Peter & the Wolf"
Best Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
Best Adapted Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Sound Editing: "The Bourne Ultimatum"
Best Sound Mixing: "The Bourne Ultimatum"
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Best Film Editing: "The Bourne Ultimatum"
Best Foreign Language Film: "The Counterfeiters"
Best Music - Original Song: "Once"
Best Cinematography: "There Will Be Blood"
Best Music - Original Score: "Atonement"
Best Documentary - Short Subject: "Freeheld"
Best Documentary - Feature: "Taxi to the Dark Side"
Best Original Screenplay: "Juno"
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"

Okay, folks. T-minus a little under four hours and counting.

I won't be live blogging this year. Instead, I'm doing something different. Check out Red Carpet District for the news, and thanks so much for sticking with In Contention this season, despite the obvious need to split my facilities with Variety. It's been a good ride, if an uncharacteristically anemic one, and I have to thank Gerard Kennedy, Brian Kinsley and John Foote for keeping the content rolling throughout the season.

A final note on predictions. I've made all updates to my last second guesses and feel secure in them now...I think. As secure as anyone can be, I guess. Now it's time to see how the cards fall.

It was bound to happen.

There is a weird energy behind Marion Cotillard in the closing days of Oscar, and frankly, it's getting a bit difficult to ignore. I'm going with it. Christie may have benefited form the 100,000 DVD mailers that went to SAG members and, who knows, maybe her film is touchy subject matter for older members. Add it to the fact that Cotillard has been out there, getting the PR job done and, really, it just fits.

Hope I don't hate myself tomorrow.

Another Oscar season is coming to a close. On Sunday, the 80th Annual Academy Awards will wrap up an exciting and unique season. Here’s my final look at the state of affairs in the crafts categories.

Best Art Direction

This strikes me as a race between Sarah Greenwood, BAFTA winner for “Atonement,” and Jack Fisk, guild winner for “There Will Be Blood.”

I think it’s a close call, but I give the edge to Fisk, as his film seems to have more love overall and the work has been acclaimed since people laid eyes on the film. It would be a long time coming for Fisk, even though this is his first nomination after a career spanning almost four decades. Even so, the work is awfully sparse for the typical winner here so I’d say Greenwood has a great chance to upset.

Prediction: “There Will Be Blood”
Alternate: “Atonement”
Preference: “The Golden Compass”

As promised, here are the other shots that were under consideration for that two day piece. You'll note there is nothing represented from "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," and that, quite frankly, is because I couldn't settle on a single image. The entire film is an achievement unto itself and so much more than its parts.

Let's take a look. More after the jump:

"NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN"
Director of Photography: Roger Deakins

"MICHAEL CLAYTON"
Director of Photography: Robert Elswit

"LUST, CAUTION"
Director of Photography: Rodrigo Prieto

"THERE WILL BE BLOOD"
Director of Photography: Robert Elswit

"YOUTH WITHOUT YOUTH"
Director of Photography: Mihai Malaimare, Jr.

"AMERICAN GANGSTER"
Director of Photography: Harris Savides

"3:10 TO YUMA"
Director of Photography: Phedon Papamichael

And just so you understand how difficult the #1 choice was in the end...

"THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD"
Director of Photography: Roger Deakins

Help me out here. I need convincing arguments for the Art Direction, Cinematography and Costume Design categories. They are truly the only fields that have me at a back and forth loss.

What's gonna win? You can see in the charts what my current feelings are, but it seems these are so up in the air. "Convince me. Convince me."

Alright, no second guessing on Sunday morning for this guy. I'm going to go ahead with my final guesses now and leave it to the Oscar Gods to play things out as they may. Then again, I say that now, but more than a few categories are giving me pause (Best Actress, best Art Direction, Best Costume Design). So one never knows. I could wake up in a cold sweat and make a change Saturday evening.

Here's what I'm going with, plus alternates (Gerard will check in later today with his final pre-Oscar "Tech Support" column):

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men" (alt. "Michael Clayton")
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men" (alt. Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood" (alt. George Clooney, "Michael Clayton")
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose" (alt. Julie Christie, "Away from Her")
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men" (alt. Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild")
Best Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton" (alt. Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone")
Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Original Screenplay: "Juno" (alt. "Michael Clayton")

Best Art Direction: "There Will Be Blood" (alt. "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street")
Best Cinematography: "There Will Be Blood" (alt. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")
Best Costume Design: "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (alt. "Atonement")
Best Film Editing: "The Bourne Ultimatum" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Makeup: "La Vie en Rose" (alt. "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End")
Best Music - Original Score: "Atonement" (alt. "Ratatouille")
Best Music - Original Song: "Once" (alt. "August Rush")
Best Sound Editing: "Transformers" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Sound Mixing: "Transformers" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Visual Effects: "Transformers" (alt. "The Golden Compass")

Best Animated Feature Film: "Ratatouille" (alt. "Persepolis")
Best Documentary Feature: "Taxi to the Dark Side" (alt. "No End in Sight")
Best Documentary - Short Subject: "Freeheld" (alt. "Sari's Mother")
Best Short Film - Animated: "Peter & the Wolf" (alt. "I Met the Walrus")
Best Short Film - Live Action: "The Tonto Woman" (alt. "At Night")

Today we round out the top 10 shots of the year with the final five. Check out part one if you missed it.

Let's dive in:

We were completely ripping off New York filmmaking from the 1970s, things like “Klute” and pretty much everything Owen Roizman has ever shot. But Tony’s sense of these things was not lots of little pieces; he loves making kind of graphic frames that play as long as possible.

--Robert Elswit

Robert Elswit had a hell of a year in 2007, finally getting his due from the American Society of Cinematographers who awarded his work in Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood." There was another film featuring Elswit's unique signature, however, that flew under the radar for its considerable attention to composition and camera movement: Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton."

Much is made of the film's final sequence, a long shot focused on Clayton as he rides away from the hysteria in his life, desperate for his cab driver to "just drive." But a companion shot from earlier in the film was just as arresting, if not more so, as a purposeful point of transition to the second half of the endeavor. A long tracking shot that never misses a beat, both behind and in front of the camera, the scene detailed is the expert, painfully clinical execution of Arthur Edens, played to an award-worthy T by Oscar nominee Tom Wilkinson.

The final image is steeped in theme, and an initial tracking sequence under Edens' opening monolgue pulls the viewer into the film's interior world, but this particular shot is so cold as to be frozen in its depiction of something at once gruesome and strangely beautiful, fluid. I'm not privy to whether it may have been a directorial decision, though I suspect it may have been, but it is the crown jewel in a film packed with precision from Elswit.

If we were stealing from anybody, it was a little bit of Kubrick. But that tends to be kind of Paul’s taste anyway. But in terms of temperature -- and we’ve said this a million times -- it was ‘Treasure of the Sierra Madre.’ We really wanted a sense of that. Oil drilling was a really hard life, and I think Paul was absolutely obsessed with capturing that.

--Robert Elswit

Elswit bumps up against himself here, one of the countdown's two individuals with dual representations. The imagery throughout "There Will Be Blood" is instantly classic, much like it's sister film, "No Country for Old Men." The ASC has seen fit to reward Elswit for his work on the picture, and with due cause. The result of "Blood" is a testament to the artistic splendor of the lenser's 5-film collaboration with director Paul Thomas Anderson.

The shot that stuck out in my head the very first time I saw the film spoke to me so deeply that I referenced it in my initial review: "A few years trickle by as Plainview adds onto his enterprise until finally, oil. A black-tarred hand reaches to the sky and suddenly you sense the influence of Stanley Kubrick on the film. Like the apes who discovered weaponry in “2001: A Space Odyssey,” Plainview has come upon the object that will dictate America’s destiny for the next century and more." I don't thiink I could say it any better now.

Indeed, the Stanley Kubrick reference is palpable, and obviously, Elswit is on the record as saying the work of the highly visual director was referenced on the film. It is perhaps the most Kubrickian image of the year, which is saying something, given the number of times the filmmaker's name has been evoked in critical discussion of the year's cinema.

Joe and I are very clear that cinematography must be in service of the story. With the unfettered imagination, meaning can just explode and proliferate. So we wanted to keep in line with the script’s insistence on no adjectives, keep things clean as a whistle, very clear and with unfiltered light.

--Seamus McGarvey

Perhaps the most talked about shot of the year is the 5 minute-plus tracking scene of Dunkirk in Joe Wright's "Atonement." Seamus McGarvey served lensing duties on the pic, but camera operator Peter Robinson perhaps deserves most of the credit for that shot. However, it is an image just moments later that was most striking to me and, indeed, more thematically relevant.

Robbie Turner, robbed of four years of his life due to false charges, painfully in love with Cecilia Tallis, desperate to return to her arms, is injured, his life draining away, his exhaustion taking its considerable toll. In front of a theater screen, his anguish plays out expressionistically behind him as a black-and-white romance shines bright on the screen, two lovers locked in a kiss. Robbie holds his head in his hands, everything...slipping away.

This shot means so much more than any other image in the film. And while McGarvey and Wright's (and Robertson's) Dunkirk odyssey has been unfairly maligned as it is, I have to say, not enough attention has been paid to the visual splendor found elsewhere. And I still contend this might be a dark horse in the cinematography category at this weekend's Oscar ceremony.

Thankfully, Universal's "Bourne" franchise finally received its fair share of film awards acknowledgment this year as the best film in the series received three Oscar nominations. Sadly, a tip of the hat to lenser Oliver Wood wasn't in the cards, but that's okay. He and his crew were responsible for one of the most jump-out-of-your-seat images of the entire year -- perhaps the entire decade -- in Paul Greengrass' "The Bourne Ultimatum."

At the end of an involved and lengthy (some would say too much so) action set piece that dazzles the viewer with both visual skill and editorial expertise (thank you Christopher Rouse), Jason Bourne fixes in on his target, the elusive "asset," a building away, closing in on the unsuspecting Nicky Parsons. A split second decision from the robot-like former government operative and Bourne sprints toward a window, out onto a ledge and leaps headlong into the air. Typicality would suggest a simple profile view of Bourne crashing through the oncoming window, but no. Wood and company followed the character through the air, hell, through the WINDOW, on the way to eliciting gasps and perhaps cheers from spellbound audiences.

Dazzling. Simply dazzling. And the only drawback is that the sequence was spoiled in PR and trailer promotions for the film, but no matter. If half the industry's cinematographers were willing to be this brazen and think this far outside the box (and really, the concept doesn't seem that far-fetched in a close analysis), we'd be in for treat after visual treat.

Andrew said he wanted to create a Victorian Western, and he had a lot of visual references, from photographs to paintings and stills from other movies. But this was the 1870s, kind of late for a western. Jesse James was around at a time when the west was really changing; he lived in an area that was bustling. And Andrew wanted to get across that notion of change.

--Roger Deakins

It may seem almost cliche to select an image from Andrew Dominik's "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" as the single greatest shot of the year, but let's face it -- it's true. Any number of images from this film would blow the competition out of the water, and indeed, it was a fool's errand to select just one. Jesse James obscured by tall wheat; his iconic image approaching a stopped locomotive, doused in smoke and steam; snow-streaked scenes washed out in stark beauty; his dead, displayed body reflected in the lens of a camera -- you name it.

What I settled on was the image directly following a moment that hinted to us that this may be Deakins' greatest work to date (that being a somewhat experimental shot of a locomotive approaching the camera and taking us on a ride). The image in question lifted my heart to take it in: Jesse James, the outlaw, approaching a rise of wooden debris, awaiting an oncoming train as the engine light casts his shadow in the center of the frame. It's simply gorgeous, a testament to the possibilities of iconic imagery within the genre (possibilities strangely untapped throughout the years, for the most part).

But truthfully, I could post image after image after image from this exceptional piece of work and easily fill a list of ten. This one was monumental, though -- demonstrative of a career pinnacle for the lenser, a singular vision of an American art form from the mind of an Aussie and the eye of a Brit. I can't tell you how in love I am with the imagery of "Jesse James," except to say how undeniably deserving Deakins is of an award for what he accomplished. Here's hoping...right?

Well, that wraps up my personal compilation of the year's greatest images. Astounding work from so many, and indeed, so many left off the list:

Janusz Kaminski vibrantly decpicted "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" in ways almost agressive in their creativity. Phedon Papamichel re-invented the western genre as a modern actioner in "3:10 to Yuma." Rodrigo Prieto filled his frames with aching thematic resilience in "Lust, Caution." And Ed Lachman brought Todd Haynes' twisted, surreal and avant garde vision of Bob Dylan to life in exciting ways in "I'm Not There." But ten is ten.

I'll likely throw up another post over the weekend to give an idea of other images I considered. A "runners-up" sort of thing. They deserve it.

The Top 10 Shots of the Year: Part One

2007 was, to my mind, the greatest year for cinematography in a long, long time. I can't recall the last time I was so thoroughly impressed with the visual artistry of film after film like I was last year, and I attribute that to the intriguing spark of creativity underway in the film medium as of late. Newcomers and veterans alike were putting awe-inspiring images on film, some of the seasoned pros besting their already exceptional portfolios.

I wanted to do something special in the way of commemorating the efforts of these individuals, and so I set out to interview a number of them as the year drew to a close. Sadly, I was never able to piece those interviews together in a proper story like I would have wanted, but in recent weeks it has occurred to me that it may be just as beneficial to offer up something you don't regularly see: a personal compilation of the greatest single images from the cinematic year.

And so it goes that I offer the Top 10 Shots of 2007, a two part piece that will run down what I felt were the best of the best in a year full of exceptional cinematographic work. Today, I'm running down shots 10 through 6, and tomorrow, we'll wrap it up with the top 5. Mixed in you'll find sporadic comments from the lensers in question, as I feel it only appropriate that I give that small gateway into their process for readers and viewers alike.

I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I did compiling it.

I suppose in a way it was business as usual, but business is never usual with [the Coens], because every film they’ve done is so different. And I think we felt quite a responsibility to the novel. Visually, graphically, it was a very different look than what we’d been doing together up until then. It was like a Peckinpah western, the old sheriff standing in the way of the way the world was going.

--Roger Deakins

There is an embarrassment of iconic images peppered into Roger Deakins' greatest creative collaboration with the Coen brothers to date. Any one of them could be spotlighted as indicative of theme or substance, tone or atmosphere throughout.

There is, of course, the instantly classic shot of Lewellyn Moss sprinting through the open country in the dead of night, the headlights of a pickup in hot pursuit, silhouetting his figure against a pitch black night (used frequently in the film's PR). And who could forget any number of frames from Moss and Chigurgh's hotel confrontation, the darkening of a hallway light bulb, the jaundiced yellow swaths of street lamp bathing the interior of the room, Moss lying in wait, shotgun in hand?

For me, the image that always stood out is the one that gave me the most discernible start. As much attribution may be given to the editing of the sequence, but there is Moss, waltzing back into the lion's den of a drug deal ambush and discovering he might not be alone. He turns back to the ridge and there is his truck, suddenly accompanied by another and visually framed at such a distance as to play a trick on the viewer. "Wait, is that...? Fuck!" It isn't the prettiest frame of the film, but it is the one that sticks with me, the one that, more than any other, captures the sheer anxiety of the endeavor.

One of the unsung heroes of the season this year had to be lenser Eric Gautier, who captured Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" on film in such a way as to both electrify and provide a basis for deep consideration of theme and character. Gautier was tasked with depicting the American frontier through the eyes of disenchanted youth, and in so doing he managed to plumb considerable depths with his imagery.

Take this shot of a bald eagle tearing away at the rotting flesh of a sacrificed moose. Chris McCandless, so desperate to prove to himself and to, in some small way, humanity, that he could live off the land in Alaska, he hunted and killed the animal, attempted to smoke the meat but found the process too much to complete, too beyond him to handle. There are cutting themes in this flawed film about the country weighing on a person's psyche, about the desire to leave it all behind and escape the small tragedies of everyday life. The American way is there, though ever elusive, picking away at the flesh of scattered dreams.

It's a subtle image, on screen for maybe five seconds, and likely dominated by the pack of wolves partaking in the feast. But it resonated with me. It struck a chord that made me all the more proud of Sean Penn for the dedication he put into this effort, no matter my opinion of the final result. And Gautier is at the forefront of that vision, a brilliant visual guide through the wild of America's wounded heart and bitter soul.

Steven Shore had these banal kind of images of America in the 70s, which were a great reference for colors and for props, and for the world that we were to inhabit and make the audience feel they were watching. Something that did concern me, however, was that it was very dialogue-driven, and I wanted to do things that were more cinematic. But all of David's references were these wonderful movies that had this structure that I became interested in. The approach that he wanted to take was exciting for me.

--Harris Savides

Harris Savides sat behind the camera of three solid visual achievements in 2007: Ridley Scott's "American Gangster," Noah Baumbach's "Margot at the Wedding" and David Fincher's "Zodiac." His versatility can be felt throughout his work on these vastly different projects, but it was on the latter that he proved a certain capacity for mainstream artistry as of yet untapped.

Much of Savides' work in the film was buttressed by visual effects. In many cases, the seams are so transparent as to become a mere afterthought, but one shot, simply accentuated by CGI in the background, really spoke up on the film's upcoming presence and period immersion. Not quite the opening image (the second, actually, following a CGI establishing shot of the Bay Area during the 4th of July), the shot is a trek through a celebratory neighborhood as Three Dog Night's "Easy to Be Hard" settles into the bones.

The tone Savides sets with his framing and lighting is one of instant foreboding, an almost sickening sense of impending doom. When I think of "Zodiac," I immediately think of this image and something cold sits in my stomach. It gets me every time.

Black and white always has the danger of being too stylized, but Anton is great at being efficient and taking risks and not questioning too much. That gave us confidence to go ahead with things. We wanted to make the film really personal and daring in a lot of ways.

--Martin Ruhe

Cinematographer Martin Ruhe had been a frequent collaborator of director and photographer Anton Corbijn in the music video world, where Corbijn had cranked out more than a few shining examples of visual acuity (Nirvana's "Heart-Shaped Box," Rollins Band's "Liar"). When the time came for Corbijn to make the leap to feature films, it was only fitting that he bring Ruhe along to attack the photography of the endeavor. Indeed, the lenser and filmmaker managed to capture their fair share of iconic imagery on the way to cinematically immortalizing Joy Division front man Ian Curtis.

The shot that springs to my mind is one that not only assures the viewer of Ruhe's skillful hand behind the camera, but one that announces Corbijn as a visually dynamic filmmaker who promises to be an exciting talent to watch in this new phase of his career. Curtis walks down the street having donned his infamous "HATE" jacket on the way to the local employment offices as Joy Division's "No Love Lost" attacks the cerebellum. It's the perfect transition into the second act of the film and really sucks the viewer in.

There are, of course, numerous other images of note in "Control." The final shot of smoke rising in the extreme bottom of the frame following the heart-wrenching denouement might come to most minds. But whatever your favorite shot, it is refreshing to see a first time director so comfortable with the narrative medium and so capable of conveying visual meaning, thanks in no small part to the work of Ruhe, a solid fit for Corbijn's expressionist tendencies.

The Prospect Park scene was the best example of a happy accident. It was not something that Aaron and I talked about a great deal. Though there were some basic ground rules. Obviously the movie is 80-90 percent handheld, and that was a conscious choice. We also made the decision that all of the cityscape shots were going to be completely static and separate from those other shots. We didn’t want there to be any additional presence other than the city.

--Andrew Reed

It's no secret that I fell in love with the warmth and realism of Aaron Katz's "Quiet City," but something that always resonated with me was the subtle and yet purposeful work from lenser Andrew Reed. In a movement consistently spotlighted for its minimalism ("mumblecore," the kids are calling it), I find myself arguing for "Quiet City" as an entity unto itself. Much of my reasoning has to do with Reed's efforts in setting the film apart visually, while at the same time clearly working with the influence of his idols in the field.

The shot that became the film's calling card has, in effect, become the film's cliche. But cliches aren't always a whitewashing of reality, and this image has the goods and captures the heart of Katz's film in one fell swoop. The central duo, Jamie and Charlie, decide upon a spontaneous race in the middle of a sun-washed park. Noticing the descending sun and the opportunity to capture something special, Reed set the camera on the ground and aimed into the light, capturing the characters in a long take as they run away from and then back toward the frame. It sounds trite but it is, in fact, beautiful.

I really hope Reed and Katz continue to collaborate on future efforts, because they seem to have a chemistry that unfolds on the screen in very special ways. Sometimes shots are a stretch or otherwise self-aware, sometimes the opportunity to break out of a visual shell is lost, but more often than not, they settle into a splendid groove and will surely continue to solidify their visual voices.

Coming Tomorrow: Part Two and the #1 shot of 2007!

With six days left in what has become both the most exciting and the most exhaustive Oscar season I’ve ever witnessed, we come to a stretch of second-guessing and faux reasoning against the frontrunner in valiant attempts at steering clear of boredom.

I’m just as guilty. And though my prediction that “Letters from Iwo Jima” would win Best Picture wasn’t as off the rails as less than a few would like to think (talk to voters – it was in the thick of it), it would be silly not to concede that I just couldn’t swim with most of the school due to the need for excitement.

Even still, last year was the most wide-open phase two we’ve ever seen, while this year, phase one left a million holes to be filled by prospective nominees. Once the films were slated late last month, the frontrunner emerged – and it hasn’t backed down.

So no, I won’t be stepping out onto unnecessary limbs this season because it is quite obvious that “No Country for Old Men” will be the year’s Best Picture winner. It shocks me to the core, because hey, I was the guy saying it didn’t have a snowball’s chance of a nomination. Yet here it is, tied for the most nods with that other film I didn’t think had a snowball’s chance.

This is a new Academy. This is an Academy suddenly, and in spite of its past behavior, concerned with its image in the film community. The group is clearly prone to the pressures of the critical conglomeration, and, perhaps more so, willing to pander to flavor-of-the-month popularity. Only in the guild circuit, I feel, are we seeing an honest celebration of the year’s best cinema, all be it as pieces of a pie rather than a blanketing assessment, because careful consideration can more easily be given to specifics. And even that process is diluted and saturated with the overbearing solicitation of film studios, so perhaps nothing is pure.

But I digress.

“No Country” is the Academy’s choice. Even studios holding out hope for their dark horse contenders can’t help but concede as much, and these people call hundreds and hundreds, inching on a thousand Academy voters during this stretch of time, desperately hoping to turn this person or that on to their product. But in the end, it’s one person and one ballot, and these people don’t like looking stupid (unless they do so at the risk of – GASP! – giving their Best Picture honor to a film centering on a homosexual relationship).

If – and it’s a big fat giant if – the frontrunner is prone for an upset, it certainly won’t be “Atonement,” which is happy to be in the mix. It won’t be “Juno” either, which in my own discussions and in talking with those who call way, WAY more voters than I do, it simply comes up in the #4 spot.

“Michael Clayton” has always been ripe for the steal, because it is so agreeable, so middle-of-the-road, so demographically attractive and, well, so mediocre on some levels. But dare I say it, if something is the true dark horse this year, it might just be Paul Thomas Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood,” which could steal the Coen brothers’ thunder in a couple of areas if they aren’t careful over at the 42 West offices. If you knew the big (and I mean big) names that voted for this film and the frankly refreshing sense throughout the industry that it is one of the year’s finest films, you might be surprised.

But let’s not get sucked into the whirlpool, okay? This is one picture’s to lose, and seeing as you couldn’t even sleep under a rock and not hear about Scott Rudin, Joel and Ethan Coen, Javier Bardem and the film itself over the past three weeks, I’d say losing isn’t in the cards.

Oh, but wait – there are other categories, aren’t there? Allow me a brief explanation before getting to the charts:

The acting races are sewn up in all but one category, where five supporting actress contenders each have a clear shot at the win. Strangely enough, none of the studios behind those films have made major strides in getting their contenders out there, so to speak, other than a far-too-late Weinstein performance reel for Cate Blanchett. The double nominee won the Globe, while Ruby Dee took the SAG Award and Tilda Swinton grabbed the BAFTA. Amy Ryan, meanwhile, was the critical darling coming into the season.

So who wins???

Most still think Ruby Dee has it, based on nothing more than a career achievement scenario, but I’m not buying it. The SAG clearly liked “American Gangster,” nominating it in the ensemble category. The Academy clearly did not, as Dee is the only major nominee for the pic. I don’t think the Academy at large would have made it to the 45 minute mark of “I’m Not There” to even see Blanchett’s performance, and Saoirse Ronan, bless her, didn’t get much in the way of a PR shove in phase two.

So I kindly think it’s a duel between Amy Ryan and Tilda Swinton, and for the moment (this may change within the week), I’m sticking with Swinton as the Academy's way to honor “Michael Clayton.”

Elsewhere, I think the industry holds deep respect for Julian Schnabel’s “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” so much so that I would say Schnabel would have taken the director prize had the film received a Best Picture nomination (though, in truth, he still could pull the upset). So I expect Ronald Harwood’s delightfully cheeky screenplay to triumph over the Coens and Janusz Kaminski to reign out for the pic’s cinematography. These are two categories where the clear artistic accomplishment of this film can be recognized, and believe me, it won’t walk away empty-handed.

Best Sound Mixing? Are Kevin O’Connell and Greg P. Russell really going to get the shaft again, people??? You know, I don’t think things are as desperate as some (and even the two fellas mentioned) do. It might sting a little that the Cinema Audio Society has still not given this duo an award, but it also kind of makes sense for the group to go with a choice like “No Country for Old Men,” whereas the Academy blindly goes with the loudest pic of the bunch more often than not. While “blindly” might not be the way Kev and Greg want to win this thing, it is also quite apparent that the sound mix on “Transformers” is “best all time” material, one of the most innovative and involved, call it complicated, jobs the trade has yet to see. If they win, they deserve it. And I think they will.

Let’s see, just going down my list here. Best Foreign Language Film and Best Animated Feature Film each have clear frontrunners that likely won’t be upended. The costume design arena has me at a slight loss, as I’m caught between “Atonement” and “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” Best Art Direction could also go to “Atonement” or even “Sweeney Todd,” but for some reason I want to stick with “There Will Be Blood.”

The other tech fields of sound editing and visual effects seem to be headed for the robots in disguise, while Best Original Score tends to go to the most memorable work. This year, that is undeniably the work of Dario Marianelli in “Atonement.” Oh, and Best Original Song comes down to “August Rush” or “Once,” as “Enchanted” screwed itself out of a win when it was nominated three times. And that isn’t much of a toss-up – “Once” takes it.

Finally, fresh on the heels of his win over the weekend, Christopher Rouse is likely to take an Oscar home for the film editing of “The Bourne Ultimatum.” I’m happy to say I was on that train early on, but I’m also happy to say that if anything is set to be a deserved win Sunday night, this is it (and boy will I feel both silly and pissed if he misses).

I will see the shorts later this week and finally give educated guesses in those categories, so no comment at the moment. Let’s see, what am I forgetting…

Oh yeah, Best Original Screenplay. “Juno.” Duh. Easiest pick of the season.

So there we are, my brain leakage in this, the final stretch. The updated charts are both below and in the sidebar. Should anything change, I’ll be sure to note it here and Sunday afternoon, I’ll go ahead and post my full list of predictions in an entry here that makes it clear enough.

(On a side note, Gerard will be wrapping up “Tech Support” later this week, while I will be adding an addendum to his work by offering up my “Top 10 Shots of 2007.” I found last year to be one of the best year’s for cinematography in a long time, and I feel bad that I haven’t been able to do anything with the massive amount of interviews I’ve done with various lensers. I will be posting the shots and their comments in a two-parter starting Thursday, so be on the lookout for that.)

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts

Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
02/11/08 - "2/11 Chart Update"
01/21/08 - "1/21 Chart Update"
01/14/08 - "1/14 Chart Update"
01/07/08 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/24/07 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/12/07 - "12/12 Chart Update"
12/10/07 - "12/10 Chart Update"
12/03/07 - "12/3 Chart Update"
11/27/07 - "11/27 Chart Update"
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"

2006 Predictions Archive

It's been a while, eh? Sitting back watching the "No Country for Old Men" onslaught on the precursor circuit, why would anyone want to update predictions that, by and large, see "No Country" sweeping? To be quite honest, it doesn't really feel right.

There are actually a couple of categories that look a little ripe for the taking, and more than enough foregone conclusions to go around. Like Best Supporting Actress, which is a five-horse race if you ask me. Amy Ryan dominated the critics groups, Cate Blanchett took the Golden Globe and Ruby Dee grabbed the SAG Award. If that hasn't made things interesting enough, Tilda Swinton was victorious with the BAFTA over the weekend and Saoirse Ronan hasn't made an appearance beyond a Golden Globe nomination, so her possibilities and heavy campaigning began the day she was nominated. A lot of steam is left in that ship, is my point.

Then there is that interesting lead actress category, which is still an open road for the three main combatants. Julie Christie took the SAG and Golden Globe (Drama) while Marion Cotillard wrangled the comedy Globe and the BAFTA. Ellen Page, meanwhile, is the "it" star of the moment with "Juno" tearing up the box office and at least the perception that the Academy may want to reward it outside of original screenplay.

Oh, and to give a little love to the tech categories, what about 20-time nominee Kevin O'Connell and his partner, 12-timer Greg P. Russell? The duo has been well covered both here and in mainstream media regarding their Best Sound Mixing nomination for "Transformers." But the campaign behind "No Country for Old Men" is putting considerable effort behind its tech nominations, including the praise-worthy soundscape of the picture. "The Bourne Ultimatum," meanwhile, proved dominant at the BAFTAs, so perhaps a statue isn't as secure for O'Connell and Russell as it would seem. (I'm still sticking with them.)

Oh, and those are just a few of the many brain-twisters driving me nuts in the lead-up to the show. Don't get me started on the adapted screenplay race, that could be seeing a groundswell behind "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" over the brothers Coen, or even the Best Picture ranks, which, let's face it, might have "No Country" in a precarious "Brokeback Mountain" scenario.

The "pros" are leaning that way for the Coens' flick, dubbed an "instant classic" in some quarters and therefore kind of a big deal (right?). Others are positing lists of lessons, presuming, I suppose, that we have actually learned anything, when in fact all the "rules" have been tossed out the window. Maybe that's what we've learned.

Lots of questions, lots of possibilities -- and ballots are due this week. More than likely, "No Country" is on a course for Oscar glory. But "more than likely" is a cheating bitch, sometimes.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts

Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/21/08 - "1/21 Chart Update"
01/14/08 - "1/14 Chart Update"
01/07/08 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/24/07 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/12/07 - "12/12 Chart Update"
12/10/07 - "12/10 Chart Update"
12/03/07 - "12/3 Chart Update"
11/27/07 - "11/27 Chart Update"
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"

2006 Predictions Archive

The plight of sound mixer Kevin O’Connell has become surprisingly well known. With the arguable exception of composers, crafts artists are rarely featured in the mainstream media. O’Connell’s 20 Academy Award nominations make him one of the most unlikely prolific individuals in the Academy’s history. His zero wins give him the dubious distinction of having the most accumulated nominations without a win. His longtime partner Greg P. Russell has shared 12 of those nominations with him, giving the duo a total of 32 tips of the hat without a win. But that is something that could very well change this year with a cult-TV-classic-turned-blockbuster-cinema-sensation.

I spoke with O’Connell last week to get his take on media exposure, the elusiveness of Oscar and, of course, the work.

O’Connell acknowledges this year has been a little different than every other year, saying that he’s actually nervous and hasn’t been nervous for a long time. “I don’t really see any clear frontrunner,” he says. “Maybe that’s why I’m nervous. I think we have a shot.”

As “No Country for Old Men” makes its seemingly inevitable way toward a Best Picture Oscar, and Javier Bardem and the Coen Brothers continue to receive considerable press attention, it’s easy to forget the crafts artists who contributed to the film and its eight nomination total.

“No Country” did, after all, receive four nominations in the “tech” categories. One of those was for “Roderick Jaynes” in the film editing field. Roderick is widely known as being a pseudonym for the Coens and could result in one of four wins for the brothers come Oscar night. The great cinematographer Roger Deakins, meanwhile, finds one of his two nominations this year for his work here. It marks his fourth nod for a Coen collaboration.

The other two crafts nominations came for Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing. The sound work in this film was, in my opinion, phenomenal. The tension, suspense and even character creation (note the sound of a train whenever Bardem’s character appears) amounted to the creation of a particular mood throughout the film. The work has been a considerable favorite in the sound community, and now it has the opportunity to take things one step further: Oscar glory.

Been a slow week. Even the Variety blog has suffered. I never got around to typing out another prediction column this week, but the trusty asterisks have been updated accordingly in the sidebar. I'm kind of being lulled into the whole "No Country" stampede, but I don't know. It doesn't feel right.

Gerard will have a column up later today, speaking of "No Country." It'll be with the sound technicians behind the flick. Stay tuned for that.