2/11 Chart Update
It's been a while, eh? Sitting back watching the "No Country for Old Men" onslaught on the precursor circuit, why would anyone want to update predictions that, by and large, see "No Country" sweeping? To be quite honest, it doesn't really feel right.
There are actually a couple of categories that look a little ripe for the taking, and more than enough foregone conclusions to go around. Like Best Supporting Actress, which is a five-horse race if you ask me. Amy Ryan dominated the critics groups, Cate Blanchett took the Golden Globe and Ruby Dee grabbed the SAG Award. If that hasn't made things interesting enough, Tilda Swinton was victorious with the BAFTA over the weekend and Saoirse Ronan hasn't made an appearance beyond a Golden Globe nomination, so her possibilities and heavy campaigning began the day she was nominated. A lot of steam is left in that ship, is my point.
Then there is that interesting lead actress category, which is still an open road for the three main combatants. Julie Christie took the SAG and Golden Globe (Drama) while Marion Cotillard wrangled the comedy Globe and the BAFTA. Ellen Page, meanwhile, is the "it" star of the moment with "Juno" tearing up the box office and at least the perception that the Academy may want to reward it outside of original screenplay.
Oh, and to give a little love to the tech categories, what about 20-time nominee Kevin O'Connell and his partner, 12-timer Greg P. Russell? The duo has been well covered both here and in mainstream media regarding their Best Sound Mixing nomination for "Transformers." But the campaign behind "No Country for Old Men" is putting considerable effort behind its tech nominations, including the praise-worthy soundscape of the picture. "The Bourne Ultimatum," meanwhile, proved dominant at the BAFTAs, so perhaps a statue isn't as secure for O'Connell and Russell as it would seem. (I'm still sticking with them.)
Oh, and those are just a few of the many brain-twisters driving me nuts in the lead-up to the show. Don't get me started on the adapted screenplay race, that could be seeing a groundswell behind "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" over the brothers Coen, or even the Best Picture ranks, which, let's face it, might have "No Country" in a precarious "Brokeback Mountain" scenario.
The "pros" are leaning that way for the Coens' flick, dubbed an "instant classic" in some quarters and therefore kind of a big deal (right?). Others are positing lists of lessons, presuming, I suppose, that we have actually learned anything, when in fact all the "rules" have been tossed out the window. Maybe that's what we've learned.
Lots of questions, lots of possibilities -- and ballots are due this week. More than likely, "No Country" is on a course for Oscar glory. But "more than likely" is a cheating bitch, sometimes.
Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Previous Oscar Columns:
01/21/08 - "1/21 Chart Update"
01/14/08 - "1/14 Chart Update"
01/07/08 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/24/07 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/12/07 - "12/12 Chart Update"
12/10/07 - "12/10 Chart Update"
12/03/07 - "12/3 Chart Update"
11/27/07 - "11/27 Chart Update"
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"
Comments
Am I the only person on the planet that thinks PT Anderson has a real shot at winning Best Director?? Seeing that both films have an equal number of nominations, and that the Academy could choose to reward the Coens in other categories like writing, and editing, is it really that far fetched that they might see fit to give Anderson a little love as well??
Posted by: Paddy![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 12, 2008 09:18 AM
That's quite a good showing for Sweeney Todd in Best Makeup, considering that it wasn't nominated. ;-)
You confused it with POTC. When mentally going through the nominees, I often do the same thing myself. Seems like our way should be right, doesn't it?
Posted by: MeThreepio![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 12, 2008 02:05 PM
Doh! I thought I changed that long ago. Am I getting old or what?
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 12, 2008 02:13 PM
I certainly hope that Paul Thomas Anderson has a shot. I'd love him to win.
Posted by: Mario Borroto![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 13, 2008 03:47 PM
I still think Blanchett will win supporting, but awards love in that category, as you mentioned, has been spread quite evenly, so who knows.
I hope Marion Cotillard wins Best Actress, no matter what, I think she gave last year's best performance by an actress, even if my heart belongs to Ellen Page's Juno.
No Country is bound to tear up the Oscars, or at least, at this point, I think it is safe to assume so. Upsets can happen, and with a film that has received so much attention throughout the precursors, anything can happen. Oscar = One week away = wow.
Posted by: Nick Plowman![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 17, 2008 04:57 AM
Supporting actress and cinematography are the two categories in which literally any of the five nominees could win (in my opinion).
I don't think the Coens are (technically) going to win four statues each. They have to lose at least one, right? Unless academy members don't realise that "Roderick Jaymes" is a fake name.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 17, 2008 09:31 PM