Hi Kris...
(Thanks to you and your crew for all the hard work...)

BEST ART DIRECTION
There Will Be Blood (It could go Atonement for beauty, Sweeney for the distinct flair of Burton, but I think TWBB will get a win here. The Art Director is Sissy Spacek's hubby and the academy knows it. I think they both have enough friends, along with those who LOVE TWBB [there are many], to put him over the top.)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - (An absolute crapshoot. Most Oscar pickers will want to reward Diving Bell and this seems like a good place, especially if they give Screenplay to PTA as I suspect they will.)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement- (could go anywhere other than Across the Universe, but I'm putting all the marbles on Keira's WOW-factor green dress and a widely seen Best Picture Nom.)

There are incredibly close categories indeed. I’m a statistics guy, so I usually search for patterns when predicting winners.

Art Direction:

The art direction Oscar winner has been nominated at the BAFTAs since 1995, when Restoration won the Oscar. If that statistic remains true after this year, then you can immediately eliminate American Gangster, The Golden Compass, and Sweeney Todd. The art direction winner is almost always nominated for cinematography (the only exception in the last decade being The Lord of the Rings). This also hurts the three already mentioned. The ADG has gone 7/11 with Oscar in the past, so this favors There Will Be Blood. And the Art Direction winner is often nominated for costume design, but there are exceptions there as well, notably last year’s Pan’s Labyrinth and The Madness of King George. This favors Sweeney Todd and Atonement.

In the end, it’s a toss up, but I’d say There Will Be Blood is the frontrunner, with the other two right on its tail.

Costume Design:

The Costume Design winner is often from a film nominated for art direction, the exceptions being last year’s Marie Antoinette and 1994’s Adventures of Priscilla. In this case, you can exclude all save Atonement and Sweeney Todd. The winner has always been nominated for BAFTA since 1999, when Topsy Turvy won. This excludes Across the Universe, also not nominated for CDG, so Across the Universe doesn’t stand a chance in hell, but we knew that already.

Atonement: The green dress + art direction nomination + Best Picture nominee
Elizabeth: The Golden Age: Showiest of the nominees + Byrne is overdue, but voters will likely not know that.
La Vie En Rose: Sympathy for Marit Allen + BAFTA win
Sweeney Todd: CDG winner + art direction nomination

In the end, I’d say it’s between Atonement and Sweeney Todd, with Atonement winning. Even though Elizabeth has very showy costumes, the fact that the film bombed and its lousy hurts it quite a bit, beyond what I’ve mentioned.

Cinematography:
The cinematography winner has been nominated at BAFTA since 1994, when Legends of the Fall won the Oscar and failed to get a BAFTA nomination. If this holds true, then count out The Assassination of Jesse James and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The cinematography winner, as I told you before, has almost always been nominated for art direction. The exceptions in recent history are American Beauty and Braveheart. That patterns breaks quite a bit prior to 1993. If that pattern holds true as well, then Assassination of Jesse James and Diving Bell and the Butterfly are hurt yet again, as well as No Country for Old Men. The cinematography winner is often a best picture nominee, another negative factor for Diving Bell and Jesse James. However, they are certainly the showiest of the nominated 5. But the fact that the films haven’t performed well at the box office also hurts them, so I’d call those the least likely to win, statistically. The winner is often pretty, which works best for Atonement. However, every time the ADG and ASC have agreed on a film, it has gone on to win both awards at the Oscar: The English Patient, Titanic, and Memoirs of a Geisha. And in the past 3 years, the art direction and cinematography winners have come from the same film, which is why I’m predicting There Will Be Blood to win here. However, it’s the closest race of the whole year, and anything is worthy enough to win.

A statistics guy. A man after my own heart. You might have convinced me of Blood for cinematography, blas. But something really digs at me, telling me that Diving Bell is the film that will come to mind when voters consider the field of "cinematography."

Do what you must, Mr. Tapley. After all, I remember last year when you said you had this bad feeling that Pan's Labyrinth would upset and win cinematography, and I basically said, "HOW DARE YOU!" Ugh, I can't believe it actually happened. It's still wonderful cinematography, but over Children of Men?

Anyhow, I think all the films nominated this year would be deserving of the prize. It was hard for me to pick a favorite from this year. But if Roger Deakins is going to win, it definitely should be for Jesse James. Despite the fact that I like No Country for Old Men more as a film, I can't fathom Roger Deakins finally winning, but for the wrong film. Everybody knows Jesse James is a grander accomplishment on his part, and if that doesn't win, I'd much rather they make him wait.

I'm not relying on statistics, coz I think that they are for the most part too far-fetched, and with all the exceptions, nothing I would base my predictions on.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
I'd say there's no way around Roger Deakins who nabbed his nominations number 6 and 7 this year. He is overdue and he will be honored this year (in spite of the double nomination which would normally be an obstacle). So it's between "No Country" and "Jesse James". I would pick the latter, simply because it's the visually most breathtaking achievement of the year.

ART DIRECTION:
This will be between There Will Be Blood and Sweeney Todd; and I go once more for the latter. Dante Ferretti is one of today's greatest Art Directors and he has outdone himself with his vision of Sweeney Todd's Victorian London.

COSTUME DESIGN:
This one's difficult! I'd say this is between Atonement, Elizabeth and Sweeney. They might give it to Coleen Atwood, who's an Academy favorite, or they might go for the most opulent costumes - then it would be Elizabeth. And this would be my guess (even though the movie was awful, but that didn't stop Marie Antoinette from winning either)!

Marie Antoinette is NOT an awful film. It didn't get panned like Elizabeth, and the film has quite a lot of fans in the internet community. Some people really loved the film.

I am confused on AD and Cinematography, but I have come to a conclusion on costumes: Atonement

Remember that names only matter for the nomination. Every member votes for the win, so there goes Sweeney. Few watched Elizabeth, La Vie en Rose or Across the Universe.

Even for those that didn't see Atonement, they saw the Green dress. Then those who actually saw it saw the other miraculous costumes. This movie is the epic that usually grabs the win in this category too. There are positives for each of the films, but Atonements are the strongest and most realistic. But I have missed my Costume prediction for two years running...

I feel pretty strongly about Atonement for Best Costume, and There Will Be Blood for Best Art Direction. As far as cinematography, who the hell knows. My gut is saying The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, just because I know the film is very well liked, and I can't see it leaving the Oscars completely empty-handed. This is really the only category I can see it possibly prevailing in. Adapted Screenplay is going to No Country For Old Men. No question.

Oh there's certainly question, Paddy.

Think like an academy member who is filling out their ballot:

Cinematography:

Assassination "didn't see it"
No Country "it was really dark (not a lot of light), I guess that's good"
There Will be Blood "it reminded me of those Kubrick films"
Atonement "What was so special? long takes? bah"
Diving Bell "Pretty! Unique!"

I think Diving Bell takes, but There Will be Blood could spoil.

Costume Design:
Atonement - "I/my wife really loved that green dress"
Elizabeth - "didn't we already give it to the first movie?"
Sweeney Todd - "everything was practically black and white, who could tell how the costumes compare? and they weren't that different from what Edward Scissorhands wore."
La Vie en Rose - 'shrug'
Across the Universe - 'LSD was fun in the sixties, it was great to be young then.'

Gotta say this is going to Atonement.

Art Direction:
Atonement - "there was a ferris wheel on the beach and an english manor, okay.'
Golden compass "didn't see it"
American Gangster "what's so special about the seventies, I lived through them."
Sweeney Todd "Who could tell if it was good, everything seemed black and white and barely illuminated."
There Will be Blood "Those old oil rigs were AMAZING, especially when they burnt one up, rather than CG, just like in the old days!"

I think There Will be Blood takes it.