Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you’re new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, a one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change on route to Oscar’s stage and we’re here to address it all as it unfolds.
There isn’t a whole lot to discuss this week though there are a number of forced stories out there which kind of prove the point. I’m up in Berkeley talking to Anne down in LA so, as the New York fest kicks off tonight, let’s see what’s on the docket today…
• Now that Anne has caught up with “The Social Network” we discuss the film in depth this week and it’s status as a front-running Best Picture hopeful alongside “The King’s Speech.”
• This raises the question, what else could contend with these two? One of those possibilities is “The Fighter,” which still has Anne confused as to why we’re all assuming a film directed by someone as “loathed” as David O. Russell could be in the running.
• It’s early days so it’s easy to stumble across Oscar stories that seem to be a stretch, but one can’t help but think “The Town” is in a better position than it was just a week ago. We discuss.
• Speaking of which: Mel Gibson’s “Oscar buzz.” We dig into that recently-posed scenario.
• Doesn’t it feel like, even in limited release, “Never Let Me Go” is just kind of…quiet? Anne loved the movie, obviously, while I didn’t, but we’d both like to know what the Academy thought.
• Moving out of the Oscar discussion, one of the week’s bigger stories was Christopher Nolan’s hunt for a “Superman” director. Who should be in the conversation?
Have a listen to the new podcast below. If the file cuts off for you at any time, remember you can click the download link to save it directly or play from the source. And as always, remember to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.
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*CORRECTION: This podcast states that “Never Let Me Go” has opened on 26 screens but the film has in fact been on only four screens all week.
Comments
50 responses to “OSCAR TALK: Ep. 33 — ‘Social Network’ front-running, Gibson persona non grata and why ‘The Fighter?’”
out of the need of being gung-ho this afternoon ill make a few predictions
The Kings Speech takes Best Picture, David Fincher Takes Director. First split in a while
on a more reasonable note, i hope the town gets in for best picture, as of now anyway and id be suprised if that changed.
The fighter does look rather bland, i think TRUE GRIT, will remain the big question mark of the season
and yes, neverl let me go is pretty much gone these days
I still don’t understand why anyone would consider “The Fighter” as a possible frontrunner. The trailer was beyond cheesy and generic and Mark Wahlberg looked pretty bad, in my opinion. Christian Bale did look good though.
Also, I so cannot wait to see The Social Network.
When has “beyond cheesy” been something that didn’t dovetail with Academy sentiments? I say the same thing year after year, but personal perception and expectation of AMPAS reaction are two different things.
the trouble with “the fighter” is the conventional trailer because the movie has been screen-tested twice and it was a R rated dramedy with full of drama ,very funny and entertaining( a US friend saw it during the 2nd screen test)
Thank you for echoeing my sentiments about O. Russel and the skepticism for The Fighter. Unlike Gibson though O. Russel’s screw-ups though the latters aren’t as recent and like Anne said O. Russel isn’t antisemetic, at least that we know of. Even then, O. Russle’s behavior hasn’t detered my interest in the movie.
And thanks for bringing up the comparisons between this race to the 76 one with Rocky and All the Presidents Men. I really hope that it doesn’t happen again though.
And another thanks for mentioning the push for my favorite movie of the year Toy Story 3, which i’ve been calling as a best picture winner since it opened. Yeah I know it probably won’t happen, but a man can dream can’t he?
You guys kinda glided over the supporting actors in Social Network, wats the deal with Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake? Possibilities?
FYI, Anne got Never Let Me Go wrong. It’s only been playing in four theaters this past week, and earned $28,000 per theater last weekend. Definitely nothing to sneeze at.
It expands to 26 theaters today.
Just a thought Kris since we’re in the lean time in terms of Oscar news, how about accepting questions from readers to discuss during upcoming Oscar Talks?
It’ll add content and might actually be an interesting conversation starter.
Just an idea.
Drew,
I think Russell’s problem isn’t so much that he’s done so wrong in the eyes of the public (like Gibson) but that he has a reputation for being difficult to work with. It’s difficult to get Oscar nominations when the people you work with are the ones who vote.
Russell could be nominated if the film’s quality is undeniable, and he could surely be nominated somewhere down the line if he has or is turning himself around from the kind of person he has a reputation for being. I haven’t heard anything regarding the shoot for The Fighter anyway that there were trouble, but then again we didn’t hear about I Heart Huckabees either until long after it came out.
Great idea, Loyal. I’ll offer up a post for next week asking as much.
Graysmith: Hm, no idea what she was looking at. We discussed it’s good per-theater off the air but I think the point we were trying to make is no one is really talking about it anymore.
Dooby: I’ve obviously addressed that in my reaction to the film. Maybe we’ll circle back next week. Started to kind of drift off the pasture in this one.
@Kris: I realize the Academy has loved some sappy and cliche-ridden films in the past, but I still think this looks over-the-top, even for their tastes. Obviously personal perception and AMPAS reaction are very different, but honestly I’d be pretty surprised if “The Fighter” gets much nomination love next year. Just my opinion of course.
Kris,
If you look at its Box Office Mojo page, it’ll say 26 theaters as it’s widest release. I’m guessing that’s what Anne looked at, not just above where it says it opened this past weekend in 4 theaters.
Got it. I’ll add a correction in the copy.
Evan: I don’t know, there was nothing over the top about the material to me. The marketing, editing of the trailer, etc., might have been over the top, but the film itself seems pretty tame.
Obviously I haven’t seen “The King’s Speech” yet, but Anne’s assertion that David Fincher and Tom Hooper are equally gifted directors kind of made my jaw drop. I just don’t believe that.
Anyway, a great listen as always, and bonus points for using the uncensored version of “Creep.” “Mild-mannered” my ass.
Slightly off-topic, but is still in regards to potential Superman directors, how about Gareth Edwards who directed Monsters. Seems like he made a pretty big movie off of a very minimal budget and from what I’ve heard he also handled the love story aspect of the film quite well, something which may play a part in Nolans Superman project. Anyone have any thoughts?
Graysmith, thanks for the reponse. It’s funny cause I think I recall a story where O. Russel put Nolan in a headlock some years ago at a party beacuse he thought Nolan was stealing one of his actors for a project. Wouldn’t it be funny to see them competing for best director at the oscars this year? Yeah, I know it won’t happen
True Grit is going to win Best Picture!!! Its an ethan and joel western thriller! What could beat this movie for the Best Picture of the year??? Maybe The Kings Speech but i think True Grit has it wrapped up!
Finally, there’s somebody who agrees with me that “The Fighter” doesn’t have so much going for it! “True Grit” is still an unknown entity. I have my own opinion on what could come in and sweep away a nomination, but not a win, but I’ve kind of plugged it a bit too much, so I’ll just remain mute.
Brandon Routh cannot act. Period.
Good discussion. But besides “The Fighter” it does look like “The King’s Speech” vs “The Social Network” And the trailer for “The Fighter” really doesn’t inspire much for Oscars it likes it is trying to hard to fit what the Oscars and I think it will backfire.
Kris, still nothing on Secretariat from you? Personal thoughts, etc? Or did I miss ’em? Can you see BP nom plus a handful of techs?
Also, for now, I see The Fighter and Conviction getting the possible Best Supp. Actor noms, but with nothing else. That’s just my prediction for now. Though, there may be goodwill for Amy Adams, too.
I didn’t like Never Let Me Go at all. The characters were too dumb and the story annoyed me. The performances weren’t even that great outside of Carey.
What are the chances of Wall Street 2, especially for acting?
Kris, besides “The Fighter” what else does look like it could emerge? It does seem like all the contenders have been seen for the most part. Even if at Sundance last year. and already “King’s Speech” and “Social Netwrok” are beating out “Another Year” and “127 hours” Think they could have a comback. its all guess work now anyways just any theories?
Yep, theres no escaping it…. Kings Speech v. Social Network.
And I’d be so annoyed if The Way Back got dumped in January. I hope its given somekind of shot…. just to make things more interesting that what they are right now.
I knew that David Russell having a number of enemies, but I remember similar things being said about David Fincher when the Benjamin Button campaign was gearing up.
Personally, I suspect that if the films fully deliver it is not a critical issue, but I do wonder if their reputations mean that someone like Mike Leigh or Tom Hooper takes director even if The Social Network or The Fighter were to prevail as best picture.
Regarding Mel Gibson, I’m not convinced that his anti-semitic rants would have blocked his path to a nom this year. That incident was some time ago, and he laid low and said the right things. I’ll bet some were willing to move on from that. But now with the latest incident, now he’s really gone and fucked himself. For a few years, at least. But if this crazy phone recording hadn’t happened, and if his perf is as good as we hear, who knows…
I can definitely believe that Tom Hooper and David O. Russell are equally talented directors. Everything I’ve seen from both directors has been pretty great; however, I have enjoyed and been actually more impressed with Hooper’s work. Obviously, I’m not just thinking of The Damned United (which I really quite like), but also Hooper’s television work such as Elizabeth I, and John Adams. Great work in both of those miniseries. Of Russell’s movies, I thought Three Kings was phenomenal, but found I Heart Huckabees somewhat lacking (and trying so hard to be philosophical without even breaking the surface of anything important or even that thoughtful, in my opinion) but it was fun, and there are great performances all around in that movie too. I haven’t seen Flirting with Disaster or Spanking the Monkey, though.
JJ: Can’t for another week or so.
If it comes down to King’s Speech vs Social Network, SN will take it in a jiffy, The King’s Speech screams period piece, and very old-fashioned, many might see it as a step back for the Academy. Also while the word is extremely good for King’s Speech, I don’t see passion whereas SN has passion behind it in bucketloads.
I still think Disney’s to blame for Wall-E’s failure to get a nomination. Such a massively toasted film and yet they put up such a scant campaign. Atleast TDK tried, tried very hard with a full all-out campaign, it certainly did not loose the nomination for want of effort.
Toy Story 3, I agree with you, has the makings of a Best Picture winner. But I guess years of getting the shaft makes you meek and breaks the spirit, so that you just accept with resignation that you are not gonna win. Turning out beloved and acclaimed films, many regarded as some of the finest of the new century, year after year, without acknowledgment from industry peers has to be a thankless job.
I believe Disney should really whore out with this one, go for broke, publicize Pixar’s legacy as well as their beloved series, remind everyone how they wept like children in the theater, then they might atleast have a chance. All the money that Pixar has made them, they can certainly put up a big campaign for TS3.
Matt King: If you were responding to my comment, you misread it — we’re talking David Fincher, not David O. Russell.
Ernest Borgnine wont vote for Social Network, nor will his friends.
I bet he hates Jack Goes Boating.
Flirting with Disaster is one of the funniest comedies I’ve seen in years. See it!
I know you think Never Let Me Go is going to fade out, but what do you think of Rachel Portman’s score for the film? Do you think its odds are dead too?
28,000 PSA on 4 screens is not bad, AT ALL. But look at what happened to The Kids Are All Right. That had enormous PSA on small screens and then only made $21 mill so far.
Mark Johnson: I’m not answering for Kris, but I will say that the Academy’s music branch often sticks up for failed former prestige contenders. In recent years, we’ve had “Defiance,” “The Good German,” “Big Fish” and “The Kite Runner” all show up in the score category, when every other branch ignored them. So Portman’s chances don’t really depend on the fate of the film.
I keep hearing everyone positioning the race as between THE SOCIAL NETWORK and KING’S SPEECH, but don’t think anyone should rule out 127 HOURS. Both on the strength of the film and Searchlight’s marketing/strategic expertise. When everyone is sick of talking about NETWORK and KING’S, I think 127 could become the frontrunner. Does anyone agree?
I don’t know, guys. Even before it opened, Never Let Me Go was giving me Atonement flashbacks-especially after its great reviews in the English press and mixed international reception. I can see it getting a pretty muted response and still showing up on that 10 list. If Atonement could make the top 5 ….
I liked Never Let Me Go more than you did, Kris, and probably less than Anne did. I thought it was beautiful to look at it and had great performances. Some aspects were a bit clunky, but I would say its worth seeing.
Atonement was simply a much better film that actually resonated. And it was helped along by the BAFTA contingent, which will be four-square behind The King’s Speech.
Mark: I think Portman has clear sailing, to be honest. It’s a beautiful piece of work.
Todd: That’s my third wheel at the moment but I have a hard time believing it will be galvanizing enough to land many winner votes. It would take a lot of savvy campaigning (and of course Searchlight is great at that). We’ll have to see.
And regarding per-screen box office, I just can’t bring myself to care about that as significant when you’re talking about a few markets that are bound to drive that kind of money. When it’s doing that in Kansas, I’ll be impressed.
So, guys, is Inception out of the race? It will be nommed, of course, but do you think The Social Network pretty much siphons off much of the support it might have had among Academy members? Another good podcast, by the way, Kris.
Isn’t Bright Star a better comparison to Never Let Me Go in terms of performance?
Ella: I would say Inception was never in the race. Not to win.
I don’t see Inception for the win, but I do see an 80-90% chance of BP nom right now.
I sure hope ‘The Way Back’ is released in 2010 to enter ‘The King’s Speech’, ‘Social Network’, ‘127 Hours’ race. Hopefully ‘Black Swan’ and some other small, but excellent stuff will emerge as frontrunners, as well.
Anne is an idiot. That’s what I got from this podcast. She goes on for 5 minutes judging a director’s films as cold, heartless and lacking humility and ends her tirade with ” i want to see the film and I can judge it objectively.” Really, Anne? HOW WILL YOU DO THAT?
You sure didnt seem to” get” THREE KINGS or I HEART HUCKABEES. Why in the world do you think you’ll “get” THE FIGHTER? Nothing more irritating to me then listening to people talk about films they havent yet seen – based on previous films they clearly didnt understand?
Get a new co-host Kris.
I think this is Pixar’s time to shine re: Best Picture. TS3 has unprecedented amounts of goodwill.
It’ll be between that and The Social Network.
David Fincher vs. Peter Weir
Colin Firth vs. James Franco
Natalie Portman vs. Annette Bening
Christian Bale vs. Geoffrey Rush
Lesley Manville vs. Miranda Richardson
Saw a Fighter screening and feel bad if that’s what Paramount is pinning its bets on. Christian Bale will get nommed, maybe Melissa Leo, but I don’t see anything beyond that. Mark Wahlberg is just okay, if not downright mediocre. Plus, he bulked up to play a fighter who only weighed 140 pounds and demanded reshoots after test auds could only rave about Bale. He’s trying way too hard to get his Oscar, and it shows.
I’m sorry Katie, but TS3 has no shot in heck of winning Best Picture.
Emily: I’ve begun hearing that about Wahlberg (hence his absence from the predictions this week). Bummer about the rest, though.
Me and some friends also saw an early “The Fighter” screening and while we all really enjoyed it, none of us were thinking Oscars other than for Bale. Funny thing is, there was that NY Times piece saying Paramount almost passed it on but then realized they had virtually no Oscar movies, so it seems like they’re trying to turn it into one. But with 10 nominees, I guess it could take “The Blind Side” spot.
I cannot wait for “The Social Network.” I was trying not to get my hopes up too much about this one but it sounds like it’s going to live up to the hype!