In Contention


December winner predictions

Posted by Kristopher Tapley · 9:00 am · December 1st, 2010

I haven’t bothered taking a stab at predicting this year’s Oscar winners yet.  Now seems like the right time, given that everything has been seen (save for two Sony entries with comedy stylings that look to be commercial enterprises more than awards plays).

I’m long on the record as thinking “The King’s Speech” is the one to beat in this year’s Best Picture race, and little — if anything — has given me reason to think otherwise.  But as I’ve already warned, being out in front so early can be a handicap ultimately, so we’ll see if it pans out accordingly.

I’m not putting a ton of stock into these predictions yet, so you shouldn’t either.  After all, one of my picks isn’t even present in the sidebar predictions at the moment (though that will change in a week’s time).  So just look at this as a chance to spitball some possibilities.  And feel free to offer up your guesses in the comments section below.  My predictions after the jump.

Best Picture: “The King’s Speech”
Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
Best Original Screenplay:
“The King’s Speech”
Best Art Direction: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
Best Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Film Editing: “Inception”
Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Music (Original Score): “True Grit”
Best Music (Original Song): “Waiting for Superman”
Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
Best Sound Mixing: “Inception”
Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Life, Above All”

So I guess I’m looking at:

“Inception” – 4 (seems like too many)
“Alice in Wonderland” – 3 (weird)
“The King’s Speech” – 3 (seems like not enough)
“True Grit” – 3
“The Social Network” – 2
“Black Swan” – 1
“The Fighter” – 1
“Inside Job” – 1
“Toy Story 3” – 1
“Live, Above All” – 1

But there’s still plenty of road left in this season.  What about you?  What are your thoughts on potential winners at this early stage?




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100 responses so far

  • 1 12-01-2010 at 9:12 am

    Hero said...

    If 3 isn’t enough for TKS, what about HBC for Supporting Actress? Could she be considered “due” at this point?

    Also, do you really think 127 Hours really going to get shut out?

  • 2 12-01-2010 at 9:15 am

    starbucks10172 said...

    Steinfeld?

    Whoa.

  • 3 12-01-2010 at 9:18 am

    Matthew Starr said...

    Kris I think you did not complete your second sentence.

  • 4 12-01-2010 at 9:19 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Hero: Yeah, I kind of do. Though I think there is an outside shot that Franco somehow squeezes past the fight between Firth and Bridges, but it’s an extreme longshot.

    As for Carter, yeah, I thought about it, but the performance just doesn’t have enough meat on its bones (IMO) to win an Oscar. But who knows. Maybe sentiment could play in her favor.

    Thanks, Matt. “Has been seen.”

  • 5 12-01-2010 at 9:19 am

    red_wine said...

    Best Picture: “The Social Network”
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network” LOCK
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” LOCK
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” APPROACHING LOCK
    Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network” LOCK
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Kids Are All Right”
    Best Art Direction: “Inception”
    Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
    Best Costume Design: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Film Editing: “The Social Network”
    Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Music (Original Score): “How To Train Your Dragon”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Toy Story 3”
    Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
    Best Sound Mixing: “127 Hours”
    Best Visual Effects: “Tron Legacy”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Waiting For Superman”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Tangled”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Life, Above All”

    The Social Network – 4
    The King’s Speech – 4
    Inception – 2
    Toy Story 3 – 1
    True Grit – 1
    Black Swan – 1
    The Kids Are All Right – 1
    127 Hours – 1
    Waiting For Superman – 1
    Life Above All – 1
    Tangled – 1
    Alice In Wonderland – 1
    Tron Legacy – 1
    How To Train Your Dragon – 1

  • 6 12-01-2010 at 9:20 am

    Maxim said...

    Sternfeld that good, huh?

    Waiting for the full review.

  • 7 12-01-2010 at 9:20 am

    El Duderino said...

    Can’t really argue with you there at all at this moment in time Kris. That would actually be a pretty pleasing line-up of winners, save for Best Picture, which I hope somehow shifts in another direction. What would you say has the best chance to top it? The Social Network? True Grit? The Fighter?

  • 8 12-01-2010 at 9:21 am

    starbucks10172 said...

    If not Carter in BSA, then why not Leo or possibly-overdue Adams? Think they’ll be a vote splitting factor.

    Also, I can see The Social Network picking up Best Editing easily. And do you think The Kids Are All Right might win Original Screenplay, return that category to it’s Indie Comedy roots of the early ’00s?

  • 9 12-01-2010 at 9:23 am

    John said...

    Picture: INCEPTION (two frontrunner critics darlings split that section of the votes; 127 Hours, The Kids Are Alright, Winter’s Bone, and the Coen Brothers fans siphon off more vote from this demographic. The popular vote is between INCEPTION and TOY STORY 3, but since the latter is assured the Animated Award + it has less nominations, it loses)
    ACTOR: Colin Firth (the King’s Speech)
    ACTRESS: Annette Bening (The Kids are Alright)
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams (The Fighter)(well-liked actress who is getting to the point where she might seem due grits up her image in a well-liked film)
    DIRECTOR: Chris Nolan (Inception)(two bigname directors tha thaven;t won yet will be in this list, both a little cutting edge for the Academy. The difference is that Nolan is doing a Chris Nolan movie, while Mr. Fincher is in his “I want an Oscar” phase and won;t win until he give us a good old-fashioned David Fincher movie)
    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Social Network
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Inception
    VISUAL FX: Inception
    CINEMATOGRAPHY: True Grit
    EDITING: Inception
    SOUND FX: Inception
    SOUND: Inception
    SONG: 127 hours
    SCORE: Inception
    COSTUMES: The King’s speech
    MAKE-UP: Alice in Wonderland (Tim Burton always wins here!)
    ART DIRECTION: The King’s Speech
    DOCUMENTARY: wAITING FOR sUPERMAN
    Animated film: toy Story 3

  • 10 12-01-2010 at 9:25 am

    Jon said...

    Once Black Swan opens, Natalie’s lock status will be cemented. There is no way Bening can top an incredible performance, the work that went into creating this incredible performance, and all the campaigns for Natalie, and even Natalie herself. I mean, she’s everywhere!

  • 11 12-01-2010 at 9:26 am

    N8 said...

    Best Picture: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Director: Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Anette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Best Supporting Actress: Miranda Richardson, “Made in Dagenham”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Art Direction: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Cinematography: “127 Hours”
    Best Costume Design: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Film Editing: “127 Hours”
    Best Makeup: “The Wolfman”
    Best Music (Original Score): “The King’s Speech”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Tangled”
    Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
    Best Sound Mixing: “Inception”
    Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Life, Above All”

  • 12 12-01-2010 at 9:27 am

    John said...

    I bet The king’s speech wins Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Art direction, Score and Costume design. 8 Oscars. Wait and see.

  • 13 12-01-2010 at 9:29 am

    JJ1 said...

    Best Picture: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Art Direction: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
    Best Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Film Editing: “Inception”
    Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Music (Original Score): “True Grit”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Waiting for Superman”
    Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
    Best Sound Mixing: “Inception”
    Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”

    Seems like, for now, I agree with Kris for most categories, except Supporting Actress. And I can’t make an educated guess for Foreign, yet.

    I’m taking Kris’ assumption of True Grit winning score that it is GOOD and may win in a category that has no frontrunner whatsoever.

  • 14 12-01-2010 at 9:30 am

    Andrej said...

    Considering that The King’s Speech and The Social Network are the two frontrunners in the race, I’d say that as of now, should any of them win it’s going to be for less awards than The Hurt Locker.

    The King’s Speech needs to secure at least Art Direction and any of the Supporting Actors to counterbalance losing Best Director. And as for the Social Network, it needs to secure Editing (winning Picture, Director and Screenplay is awesome enough already, but Editing seals the deal, like The Departed).

    Only two films come to my mind as capable of winning 6 Oscars or more – Inception and True Grit, since both films look like strong on the technical and artistic fields (at least the former, the latter’s a question mark). But since they need to secure a win in Screenplay to make it through (Fincher’s looking far too secured to win), I’d say Inception could have greater chances than True Grit, Adapted Screenplay’s a battlefield with The Social Network, Toy Story 3, etc.

    Oh, also… don’t dismiss Toy Story 3. Who knows.

  • 15 12-01-2010 at 9:31 am

    Hero said...

    Thanks for the feedback, Kris. I can’t wait until I can see most of these and have an informed opinion.

    *fingers crossed the NE Ohio snow stops for a trip to Cleveland to see 127 this weekend*

  • 16 12-01-2010 at 9:32 am

    red_wine said...

    Yeah if not Carter I think Amy Adams might take BSA win. The field is just so thin and undistinguished, I really wouldn’t even care who won. Unless there is a wild card like Olivia Williams to enliven things up a bit and provide a rotting interest.

    And Kris, post your review of true grit soon.

  • 17 12-01-2010 at 9:33 am

    Vn said...

    The music choices are weird too. No way Waiting for Superman is winning best song. That seem like a personal campaign choice more than like the real scenario. The music branch has never nominated Carter Burwell. It’s not their taste and he’s not really a great composer at all.

    In Best Song I would say ‘Tangled’ all the way and in Best Original Score I can see Desplat’s The King’s Speech, Powell’s How to Train you Dragon or Elfman’s Alice in Wonderland winning the Oscar.

  • 18 12-01-2010 at 9:33 am

    Lance McCallion said...

    I simply can’t get over how middlebrow mushy far-too-obviously-oscar-baity The King’s Speech seems to me in every way, and all the reviews I’ve seen don’t seem to counter that. Sure to be one of the more boring groups of winners if the Academy actually goes for it. I mean, honestly who really gives a shit about this film? Then again I haven’t seen it, but I’d rather take a nap in my theater chair for two hours.

    Also, I don’t know all the specific rules and regulations regarding the Original Score nominations, but in a year that’s giving us work like The Social Network, Tron Legacy, and White Material (this one probably doesn’t qualify, yeah? But American release this year, so I don’t know) it’s a shame the race will again be filled with considerably less daring compositions. Let’s see some electronic music in there for a change. That said, Zimmer is probably a sure nomination, and although I don’t care for his Inception score personally, I appreciate it doing something different, and would like to see it win if that’s the only one like it to be nominated.

  • 19 12-01-2010 at 9:35 am

    Maxim said...

    John, I do believe you are a little high if you think Inception has any shot at winning best Picture or Best Screenplay. Not happening. It might not even get nominated at the later category.

    The Best Editing win seems a stretch too, although that one is harder to predict.

  • 20 12-01-2010 at 9:36 am

    Fuzz said...

    Looks great Kris. Can’t wait to hear your thoughts on “True Grit” because your supporting actress pick is exciting!

  • 21 12-01-2010 at 9:38 am

    Loyal said...

    There are a lot of variables in play (does Fincher win the DGA, can Inception win the PGA, the box office tallies of The King’s Speech and True Grit) but pending some sort of massive year end critical sweep for The Social Network, I don’t think it’ll win.

    That then leaves The King’s Speech, Inception, and True Grit.

    As for the rest of the categories, I think you nailed them Kris.

    Four wins for Inception seems about right for a tech heavy film.

    As for 127 Hours, maybe Franco can find some goodwill by hosting and steal Firth’s Oscar. I’m currently predicting 8 nominations for 127 Hours and I can easily see it leaving with 0 wins.

    The King’s Speech is a question mark for me. It sounds good on paper for the win (I’m predicting 9 nominations) and yet it still feels strange.

    And of course like everyone else, I’m waiting to read the reviews for True Grit today.

  • 22 12-01-2010 at 9:43 am

    Maxim said...

    VN, I’m calling BS on your post:

    “No way Waiting for Superman is winning best song.”

    Why not? Guggenheim’s previous documentary won “Best Song” after all and it seems perfectly plausable that other high profile doc could benefit from the association.

    “The music branch has never nominated Carter Burwell. It’s not their taste and he’s not really a great composer at all. ”

    Burwell is in the top 5 composers working and the single most underrated one in the bussiness. You either don’t know his work of have a very weak taste in scores.

  • 23 12-01-2010 at 9:44 am

    Edwin Drood said...

    Too early to predict winners – at this point I don’t think your predicted winners in the supporting categories will even be nominated…

  • 24 12-01-2010 at 9:45 am

    Hero said...

    Maxim,
    Agreed on the awesomeness that is Burwell. His biggest hurdle is going to be getting nominated by the music branch, who for whatever reason, don’t appreciate him the way they should.

  • 25 12-01-2010 at 9:48 am

    Alex in Movieland said...

    I think Alice looks too messy to win Art Direction. That’s no Avatar.

    KRIS,
    didn’t you predict Into the Wild as the winner around the same time 3 years ago? :P or was it Guy?

    I’m glad this time you’re going more on the safe side (except for supporting actress which is really… intriguing)

  • 26 12-01-2010 at 9:49 am

    Maxim said...

    Hero,

    And I could never really understand why. My only guess is that his earlies work wasn’t loud enough (too tuneful?) while the later became too abstract. Either way, the man is a genius.

    Maybe if they played one of his soundtracks Inception loud, maybe then the Music Branch would pause and pay attention.

    I’d also love to see Howard Shore being recognized outside of his (admitedly monumental) LOTR work.

  • 27 12-01-2010 at 9:49 am

    John said...

    Maxim, you’ve got two closely-matched frontrunners, neither one a blockbuster. Several of the other nominees that will get #1 votes are in the same category. INCEPTION is the #3 prediction right now on a lot of lists. Therefore, it is the most likely spoiler. When you have two closely matched frontrunners that don;t appeal to everyone, #3 taking the pot is a likely scenario (See ADRIEN BRODY, BRAVEHEART). When you have evenly matched arthouse contenders, the popular movie everyone liked can steal the pot (see MARISA TOMEI).
    INCEPTION made $. In Hollywood, that is a plus. To cinephiles, it is often a negative. Thus, I would argue that your dismissal of INCEPTION’s chances are ill-informed.
    In other words, it does not take a big bong of weed for one to predict INCEPTION taking the pot.

  • 28 12-01-2010 at 9:51 am

    Silencio said...

    So you are predicting Steinfeld to win, but she’s not in your sidebar? (or maybe you only update once a week?)

  • 29 12-01-2010 at 9:51 am

    Matthew Starr said...

    10 min until the True Grit embargo lifts. Everyone start refreshing your browsers like Jessie Eisenberg.

  • 30 12-01-2010 at 9:55 am

    han said...

    Best Picture: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Art Direction: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
    Best Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Film Editing: “Inception”
    Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Music (Original Score): “True Grit”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Waiting for Superman”
    Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
    Best Sound Mixing: “Inception”
    Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Restrepo”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Incendies”

  • 31 12-01-2010 at 9:57 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    “That seem like a personal campaign choice more than like the real scenario.”

    Uh, no. Why read something asinine like that into it, by the way? It feels like that or the “Tangled” tune, and one has gravitas, the other doesn’t.

    As for Burwell — he’s doing something in “True Grit” that is very much out of his usual realm and traditional in approach. See the film, hear the score, then comment.

  • 32 12-01-2010 at 9:58 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Silencio: Like I said in the copy, one of them is not even in the sidebar, but that will change in a week’s time.

  • 33 12-01-2010 at 9:58 am

    stjeans said...

    Best Picture: “The Social Network”
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Annette Benning “The Kids are all right”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Best Supporting Actress: Dale Dickey “Winter’s Bone
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”

  • 34 12-01-2010 at 10:01 am

    Frank Lee said...

    I can’t see “Inception” winning for best film editing.

  • 35 12-01-2010 at 10:02 am

    Julian Stark said...

    Best Picture: The Kids Are All Right
    Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Inception)
    Best Actor in a Leading Role: Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception)
    Best Actress in a Leading Role: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Vincent Cassel (Black Swan)
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)
    Best Original Screenplay: The Kids Are All Right
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Rabbit Hole

  • 36 12-01-2010 at 10:02 am

    Maxim said...

    I am struck by how unusual a Best Visual Effects winner “Inception” would be if it (very likely) happens. Especially in the year of “Tron” and “Alice in Wonderland”.

    And yet, those other two films don’t seem impressive enough and “Harry Potter” franchise has historically failed to connect here (it is still my runner-up though).

    I guess what I am trying to say is that, I can’t help but wonder if “Harry Potter” has a chance to pull a “Golden Compass” style win here.

    And, coming back to the music branch for a moment, I am not fan of Zimmer’s but the sound design in Inception really was quite good. I still would give most of the credit to his collaborator and sound engineers here and would leave the score unnominated. And I cannot help but wonder what someone like Philip Glass would have done with the music here instead.

    Here are my predictions:

    Best Picture: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Director: Tom Hooper
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
    Best Supporting Actress: Miranda Richardson
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Art Direction: InceptionCinematography: “True Grit”
    Best Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Film Editing: “Inception”
    Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Music (Original Score): “127 Hours” (yes, I am that jaded)
    Best Music (Original Song): “127 Hours”
    Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
    Best Sound Mixing: “Inception”
    Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”

  • 37 12-01-2010 at 10:09 am

    James C said...

    That would be pretty satisfying seeing the wealth be shared rather than one film winning everything. Though I feel if Fincher wins the picture should as well. Is Fincher really that well respected and liked in Hollywood to the point where he would win over Hooper. I mean I love Fincher, but does the industry feel he’s overdue. I mean certainly tv directors have made transitions and won for directing films earlier within their career, right?

    I’m excited by this True Grit passion. Be great if Deakins could win and Burwell nab his first nomination.

  • 38 12-01-2010 at 10:16 am

    Joe7827 said...

    Oh boy, there’s two Johns and Jon. While I don’t necessarily agree with the John that predicted Inception, I think his argument is pretty valid. I can easily imagine a vote-split, vote-for-big-movie scenario. And Edwin Drood nailed it: some (if not most) eventual winners may not even be surefire nominees at this point.

  • 39 12-01-2010 at 10:20 am

    Antonio A said...

    Both Supporting categories seem very open, I’m thinking it’s anyone’s game at this point. Also, I hope any of the nominees but Alice in the Wonderland gets Art Direction. I can’t explain clearly why, but I find that movie so visually unappealing!

  • 40 12-01-2010 at 10:32 am

    Maxim said...

    John, with all respect you are making leaps upon leaps and are taking things that are, at best, questionable, as fact.

    “INCEPTION is the #3 prediction right now on a lot of lists.”

    Whose lists, John? I’ll let you ponder that point for a second, before I offer that these lists represent a picture’s chances being nominated and NOT of it winning. Get the difference? Ask any of those making predictions and I virtually guarantee that absolute majorite will never translate their third place placements to third place averages of entre voting bodies first or even second round voting.

    Moreover, your vote split theory is really well infomed as it shows little understanding how AMPAS’ voting process really works. Do yourself a favor and read up on it. It’s not at all about two frontrunners totally canceling each other out.

    I, too, won’t argue of Inception’s chances being nominated. But winning? Heck, I’d say Toy Story (which has everything you’ve listed on Inception going for it plus more) has a bigger snowball’s chance. And we’ve heard all the same reasons before for “The Matrix, The Dark Knight and ET”. Didn’t help much then, did it?

    Your hand-picked examples don’t make much sense either. What does Adrien Brody or Braveheart (both very strong, best director winning contenders) have to do with Inception or it’s opposition?

    And please spare, me the whole “don’t appeal to everybody” logic. That almost never happens anyway.

  • 41 12-01-2010 at 10:34 am

    Ivan said...

    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network
    Best Actor: Colin Firth/The King’s Speech
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman/Black Swan
    Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush/The King´s Speech
    Best Supporting Actress: Lesley Manville/Another Year
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Original Screenplay: The King´s Speech
    Best Art Direction: Inception
    Best Cinematography: Inception
    Best Costume Design: True Grit
    Best Film Editing: The Social Network
    Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
    Best Music (Original Score): How to Train Your Dragon
    Best Music (Original Song): Burlesque
    Best Sound Editing: Inception
    Best Sound Mixing: The Town
    Best Visual Effects: Inception
    Best Documentary Feature: Inside Job
    Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3
    Best Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men

  • 42 12-01-2010 at 10:38 am

    Ryan L said...

    I dont’ see anyone predicting Peter Weir for The Way Back …. it’s still coming out the end of the year, correct?

    I would think Peter Weir would have a chance to sneak in for Best Director. I’m not holding my breath for The Way Back winning Best Picture, but in a year where there could be a Picture/Director split I can’t help but feel he could gain momentum if the reviews are there.

  • 43 12-01-2010 at 10:39 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Interested to see you’ve seconded my prediction for “Life Above All.” Have you seen it yet, or is this a blind guess?

  • 44 12-01-2010 at 10:43 am

    Graysmith said...

    Three wins total for The King’s Speech as a Best Picture winner is not enough. The only Best Picture winner in the last 30+ years with less than four wins total was Crash. All others took home four or more.

    Of course, that’s not to say it can’t happen again, but it might not be something to bet on, statistically speaking.

  • 45 12-01-2010 at 10:47 am

    SJG said...

    Best Picture: “Toy Story 3″
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Art Direction: “Inception”
    Cinematography: “Inception”
    Best Costume Design: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Film Editing: “The Social Network”
    Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Best Music (Original Score): “The King’s Speech”
    Best Visual Effects: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3″

    I realize my some of my predictions are pretty out-of-line with what most people are thinking. But I seriously think that none of the BP nominees is going to get enough votes to win outright, and in the instant run-off, ranked-vote system “Toy Story 3″ is going to be best poised to pull off an upset. I suppose the rest of my predictions aren’t that far off-base, but we’ll see.

  • 46 12-01-2010 at 10:47 am

    Patriotsfan said...

    Interesting your predicting a split for Director and Picture. I really think that The Social Network is going to win Best Picture pretty easily, but we will have to see how things pan out over time.

  • 47 12-01-2010 at 11:10 am

    Keil Shults said...

    ****Anne Thompson claims TRUE GRIT cannot be eligible for Best Score, because the music is based on hymns from the period.

  • 48 12-01-2010 at 11:11 am

    Keil Shults said...

    Anne Thompson claims TRUE GRIT cannot be eligible for Best Score, because the music is based on hymns from the period.

  • 49 12-01-2010 at 11:12 am

    Vn said...

    I’m sorry if my lines sounds offensive, it’s the way I put emotion in what I believe, also I’m also a non english speaker.

    I’m a huge film music fan and sadly I don’t think Carter Burwell is a very good composer. Maybe it’s just my taste. I hope he delivers in True Grit but I don’t know if the music branch is in his side…

  • 50 12-01-2010 at 11:12 am

    Keil Shults said...

    sorry for the double post…the first one wasn’t seeming to go through

  • 51 12-01-2010 at 11:19 am

    Missy said...

    Every year someone predicts an actor or actress from a Arnofsky film to win and EVERY SINGLE YEAR they lose. Burstyn, Rourke, Tomei, and some of them went through the same physical transformations and Rourke even had the “comeback factor” and he still lost. I think Bening is winning Best Actress.

  • 52 12-01-2010 at 11:27 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Uh, who predicted Burstyn would win? That’s heroically clueless.

  • 53 12-01-2010 at 11:27 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Who was predicting Tomei? That was always Cruz’s Oscar to lose.

  • 54 12-01-2010 at 11:42 am

    Maxim said...

    “Uh, who predicted Burstyn would win? That’s heroically clueless.”

    I’ll give you Tomei (then again, “Cousin Vinny”) and would argue her nomination was a bit of a stretch but Burstyn, might have actually come close if she was in supporting category.

    The woman EARNED it too. It would not have unprecented either. If only critics got behind her like they did for the likes of Monster.

    That said, I was pondering the same point Missy made. I think Portman might lose. But, if nothing else, Black Swan might benefit from all of the goodwill leftover from earlier peformances. It’s whether or not it will rach that critical potential level on this film or later one is the question.

  • 55 12-01-2010 at 11:45 am

    Dignan said...

    Apologies if someone already brought this up but Anne Thompson wrote Carter Burwell’s score was ineligible for True Grit in her review. Is that based on assumption or is that official?

  • 56 12-01-2010 at 11:51 am

    Sean C. said...

    I think “The King’s Speech” could easily get costume design if it wins Best Picture; it’s got a period setting, albeit a familiar one.

  • 57 12-01-2010 at 11:56 am

    Paul8148 said...

    Best Picutre: The Kings Speech
    Best Director: Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
    Best Actor: Colin Firth (The Kings Speech)
    Best Actress: Portman (Black Swan)
    Best Support Actor: Bale (The Fighter)
    Best Supporting Actress: Steinfeld (True Grit)

    Another spread the wealth year. I’m shock myself by predicting Boyle for director, but I got a feeling they want to give 127 Hours something big but I don’t with Franco hosting he has a chance a winning now and talking to people they are stun at how great a movie it is and how Boyle made it work.

  • 58 12-01-2010 at 12:00 pm

    Keil Shults said...

    My guess is that The King’s Speech gets shut out, but to avoid a riot, the Academy creates a Best Stutter category to appease its fans.

    Oh, who am I kidding? I’m sure Firth is a damn near shoo-in.

  • 59 12-01-2010 at 12:04 pm

    Ugarte said...

    No love for Hans Zimmer? I would have thought he was the one to beat for his “Inception” score.

  • 60 12-01-2010 at 12:05 pm

    Adam M. said...

    I say Portman fades, Kidman rises as the season progresses. I have Kidman down for the win.

  • 61 12-01-2010 at 12:15 pm

    DylanS said...

    Best Picture
    “The Social Network”

    Best Director
    David Fincher for “The Social Network”

    Best Actor
    Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”

    Best Actress
    Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christian Bale in “The Fighter”

    Best Supporting Actress
    Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”

    Best Original Screenplay
    “The King’s Speech”

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    “The Social Network”

    Best Editing
    “Inception”

    Best Cinematography
    “True Grit”

    Best Art Direction
    “The King’s Speech”

    Best Costume Design
    “Alice in Wonderland”

    Best Makeup
    “Black Swan”

    Best Original Score
    “The Social Network”

    Best Original Song
    “If I Rise” from“127 Hours”

    Best Sound Editing
    “Inception”

    Best Sound Mixing
    “Inception”

    Best Visual Effects
    “Inception”

    Best Animated Feature
    “Toy Story 3”

  • 62 12-01-2010 at 12:27 pm

    Matthew Starr said...

    Kings Speech would be the weakest BP winner since Crash and thus I think Social Network will win the top prize.

  • 63 12-01-2010 at 12:30 pm

    Duncan Houst said...

    As far as Best Actress goes, I’m on Annette Bening’s side for “The Kids Are All Right”. I haven’t seen “Black Swan”, so for all I know, I might end up siding with Portland in the end. Bening was just spectacular in almost every way an actress can be. She was able to accentuate the flaws of her character while forming a real character that people can ultimately sympathize with.

  • 64 12-01-2010 at 12:41 pm

    Drew said...

    I am quite convinced that King’s Speech will sweep the oscars and it will piss people off for decades to come.

  • 65 12-01-2010 at 1:15 pm

    Aaron said...

    Picture: The Social Network
    Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
    Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
    Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
    Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Fighter (I really have no idea on this one)
    Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Original Screenplay: The Kids are all Right
    Film Editing: The Social Network (I don’t see how this one can lose, frankly)
    Cinematography: Inception
    Sound Mixing: Inception
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
    Original Song: Tangled (I’m really not familiar with this category. Just picking the Disney one)
    Original Score: Never Let Me Go
    Visual Effects: Inception
    Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
    Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
    Documentary Feature: Waiting for Superman (I feel like this is more culturally relevant than Inside Job. Although I’ll probably be wrong)
    Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men, France (it’s a great movie and seems right up Academy’s alley)

    Side note: I feel like Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole is the dark horse for best actress. If not Natalie, Kidman will win. This is not Annette Bening’s year.

  • 66 12-01-2010 at 1:17 pm

    Aaron said...

    *Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland

  • 67 12-01-2010 at 1:29 pm

    Maxim said...

    “I am quite convinced that King’s Speech will sweep the oscars and it will piss people off for decades to come.”

    There doesn’t seem to be a “Saving Private Ryan” level opposition to really fuel that kind of venom though.

  • 68 12-01-2010 at 1:35 pm

    daveylow said...

    The King’s Speech is a masterpiece compared to Crash.

  • 69 12-01-2010 at 1:40 pm

    DylanS said...

    And so TKS backlash begins. I’ve heard quite a few people single it out as a “weak” best picture winner.

  • 70 12-01-2010 at 1:49 pm

    Fitz said...

    As long as Nolan nets a Best Director nod, Inception and Black Swan land in the top ten I’ll be happy.

  • 71 12-01-2010 at 2:05 pm

    Kassie said...

    As more Black Swan reviews come in, the average score at Rotten Tomatoes is falling. It’s at a good but not notable 80%, some negatives coming from cream of the crop reviewers. Even the ostensibly positive reviews aren’t raves. I can’t help but think the reviews are going to have an impact on the movie’s noms and it’s doesn’t seem that critics have the same feeling about the movie as the people here do.

  • 72 12-01-2010 at 2:38 pm

    Umur Tas said...

    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
    Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Original Screenplay: The King´s Speech
    Best Art Direction: The King’s Speech
    Best Cinematography: Inception
    Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Best Film Editing: Inception
    Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
    Best Music (Original Score): Inception
    Best Music (Original Song): Burlesque
    Best Sound Editing: Inception
    Best Sound Mixing: Inception
    Best Visual Effects: Inception
    Best Documentary Feature: Inside Job
    Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3
    Best Foreign Language Film: Honey

  • 73 12-01-2010 at 2:40 pm

    James Stewart said...

    Best Picture: The King´s Speech
    Best Director: Tom Hooper (The King´s Speech)
    Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King´s Speech)
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
    Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
    Best Original Screenplay: The King´s Speech
    Best Adapted Screenplay: True Grit
    Best Art Direction: The King´s Speech
    Best Cinematography: True Grit
    Best Costume Design: The King´s Speech
    Best Film Editing: 127 Hours
    Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
    Best Music (Original Score): True Grit
    Best Music (Original Song): “I See the Light” (Tangled)
    Best Sound Editing: TRON: Legacy
    Best Sound Mixing: TRON: Legacy
    Best Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
    Best Documentary: Inside Job
    Best Animated Feature Film: The Illusionist
    Best Foreign Language Film: Incendies
    P.S.: My 3 favourite films of the year are The Social Network, Inception and Toy Story 3… But like everything I like never win anything at the Oscars … (My favorite movies of 2009 were Antichrist, Moon, A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds)

  • 74 12-01-2010 at 2:41 pm

    El Rocho said...

    I made a list of my own before even reading this. Kris, you and I are in 100% agreement. Let’s hope it pans out!
    I did, however, have Another Year as the winner for Best Original Screenplay for the longest time until finally seeing The King’s Speech, which solidified all my other ‘blind’ predictions for it’s win. And I think its about time Fincher won. And what a perfect film to do it for him!

  • 75 12-01-2010 at 2:43 pm

    Patryk said...

    Picture: “Inception”
    Director: Ben Affleck
    Actor: Colin Firth
    Actress: Natalie Portman
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
    Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
    Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Cinematography: “Inception”
    Film Editing: “Inception”
    Art Direction: “The King’s Speech”
    Costume Design: “The King’s Speech”
    Sound Mixing: “Inception”
    Sound Editing: “Inception”
    Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Original Song: “127 Hours”
    Original Score: “The King’s Speech”
    Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Animated Feature: “Toy Story 3″
    Documentary Feature: “Waiting for Superman”
    Foreign Language Film: ‘Biutiful”

  • 76 12-01-2010 at 2:49 pm

    tony rock said...

    Picture: Inception
    Director: David Fincher – Social Network
    Actor: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
    Actress: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale – The Fighter
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams – The Fighter
    Original Screenplay: Inception
    Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Editing: Inception
    Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
    Cinematography: True Grit
    Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Makeup: The Way Back
    Original Score: Inception
    Original Song: 127 Hours
    Sound Mixing: Inception
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Visual FX: Tron Legacy
    Animated: Toy Story 3
    Documentary: Waiting for Superman

  • 77 12-01-2010 at 3:36 pm

    El Rocho said...

    Actually, just thinking about it more, I’m going to put Olivia Williams as the winner for Best Supporting Actress for The Ghost Writer. If their is any justice, Polanski’s The Ghost Writer will get many nominations. Sadly, no wins, but it deserves all the attention possible. One of the best of the year, one of Polanski’s finest, and an overall brilliant film. Hitchcock would be proud.

  • 78 12-01-2010 at 3:54 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    By my count, Million Dollar Baby is the only Best Picture winner in the last 20 years to not feature a gun (or comparable weapon for the period). Useless trivia of the day.

  • 79 12-01-2010 at 3:54 pm

    kid said...

    Has anybody seen the Tourist?

  • 80 12-01-2010 at 3:59 pm

    kid said...

    @Chad, wouldn’t you have to go all the way back to Driving Miss Daisy to find another film without a gun?

  • 81 12-01-2010 at 4:00 pm

    kid said...

    Oh nvm I thought that was last 10 years my bad.

  • 82 12-01-2010 at 5:10 pm

    ninja said...

    King`s Speech is not winning jacks***, only Firth, maybe, he or Franco. But picture, director? Lol, no way.

  • 83 12-01-2010 at 5:51 pm

    Ben M. said...

    Picture: The King’s Speech
    Director: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
    Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
    Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
    Supporting Actress: Haille Steinfeld, True Grit
    Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
    Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Cinematography: True Grit
    Editing: The Social Network
    Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
    Make-up: Alice in Wonderland
    Score: The King’s Speech
    Song: Toy Story 3
    Sound Mixing: True Grit
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Visual Effects: Inception
    Animated: Toy Story 3
    Documentary: Waiting for Superman
    Foreign Language: Of Gods and Men

  • 84 12-01-2010 at 6:03 pm

    Hero said...

    “And I cannot help but wonder what someone like Philip Glass would have done with the music here instead.”

    Maxim, don’t even get me started on another composer the Academy doesn’t like for completely perplexing reasons!

  • 85 12-01-2010 at 6:51 pm

    Jacob S. said...

    Best Picture: “The Social Network”
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Best Supporting Actress: Olivia Williams, “The Ghost Writer”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Kids Are Alright”
    Best Art Direction: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
    Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
    Best Costume Design: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Film Editing: “The Social Network”
    Best Makeup: “Black Swan”
    Best Music (Original Score): Toss-up between “HTTYD” and “Inception”
    Best Music (Original Song): “I See the Light” from “Tangled”
    Best Sound Editing: “Toy Story 3”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Social Network” or “Inception,” I can’t pick.
    Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful”

    I’m surprised no one else picked “Biutiful” for best foreign language film. The Academy loved “Babel” and Javier Bardem stands a very good chance of getting a Best Actor nomination.

  • 86 12-01-2010 at 7:09 pm

    Jacob S. said...

    Kris, I’m also surprised you split BP, Director, AND Film Editing. Splitting them into two different movies is risky enough, but three is pretty risky.

  • 87 12-01-2010 at 7:22 pm

    Douglas said...

    Kris,
    you probably just haven’t updated your predictions but Hailee Steinfeld isn’t even on the side nominations column.

  • 88 12-01-2010 at 10:03 pm

    /3rtfu11 said...

    The Cult of Christian Bale is the scariest celebrity cult of them all.

  • 89 12-02-2010 at 12:57 am

    Rob T. said...

    I think The Social Network is still more likely to win “best picture” than The King’s Speech at this point, though that’s partly because I’ve seen the former but not the latter (which doesn’t open in my area until Christmas Eve). I also think it’s possible that buzz for Inception or The Kids Are Alright might start up again, especially for the latter if it does well in the precursors. (Wishful thinking on my part, I’m sure; these are my two favorite movies of the year so far.) It’s possible that some of those tech nods (especially for sound, though cinematography and editing can’t be ruled out) might go to 127 Hours.

    I’m struck by your current division of awards, with a single film getting four Oscars and several getting three apiece. It reminds me of 2005 when four very different sorts of films each won three Oscars (Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha and King Kong) and four other movies split the acting Oscars between them (Capote, Walk the Line, Syriana and The Constant Gardener). I thought last year might have a similar division, and was quite surprised to see The Hurt Locker pick up the screenplay and both sound Oscars. If we do see a 2005-style division with this year’s Oscars, I bet it’ll shake out very differently from how you’ve got it now.

    (Incidentally, you left Waiting for Superman out of your breakdown of “winners”.)

  • 90 12-02-2010 at 5:26 am

    tony rock said...

    I don’t know, people…can you really see The King’s Speech winning after four consecutive years where AMPAS chose the very un-baitish likes of The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Hurt Locker?

  • 91 12-02-2010 at 6:08 am

    Jack said...

    Who really cares. The Academy Awards is a LosAngeles/MotionPictureIndustry popularity contest that tells us NOTHING about the QUALITY of ANYTHING. The winners they’ve chosen over the years have been uniformly ridiculous. Don’t waste your time with this crap…

  • 92 12-02-2010 at 6:45 am

    Maxim said...

    “As more Black Swan reviews come in, the average score at Rotten Tomatoes is falling. It’s at a good but not notable 80%, some negatives coming from cream of the crop reviewers.”

    This actually happens quite often. The score might shoot up again. And it is not suprising that the more conservative critics may not love it. That was to be expected. That means little.

    “Maxim, don’t even get me started on another composer the Academy doesn’t like for completely perplexing reasons!”

    At least they managed to nominate him three times. Not enough, of course, but you take what you can.

    Also, Naqqoyqatsi – the best score of the decade.

  • 93 12-02-2010 at 11:27 am

    John said...

    Now, I call BS on your post, Maxim!!! (sorry, I just thought that was funny expression. by the way, I’m referring to #40, I believe.)

    Screenplay, Editing
    Q: ” you are making leaps upon leaps and are taking things that are, at best, questionable, as fact.”
    A: Yes. I call it PREDICTION.

    Me–“INCEPTION is the #3 prediction right now on a lot of lists.”
    You–”Whose lists, John? I’ll let you ponder that point for a second, before I offer that these lists represent a picture’s chances being nominated and NOT of it winning. Get the difference? Ask any of those making predictions and I virtually guarantee that absolute majorite will never translate their third place placements to third place averages of entre voting bodies first or even second round voting.”
    Response–If you’re saying that it’s not #3 on a lot of people’s lists, then fine. I’ve seen it pretty high on most lists, but since I didn’t cite any, you’re free to contest that. However, your argument then seems to be a “even if that’s true, though” argument, so I’ll assume it is #3 in rebutting the next argument.
    I really didn’t know what your next argument was… However, I think you’re saying that just because a movie is likely to get nominated doesn’t mean anyone thinks it will win. This is very true, but if you’re looking for a possible spoiler and your #1 and #2 are in a tight race, looking at #3 is a reasonable place to look.

    You–”Moreover, your vote split theory is really well infomed as it shows little understanding how AMPAS’ voting process really works. Do yourself a favor and read up on it. It’s not at all about two frontrunners totally canceling each other out.”
    Response–again, no idea what the point of this was! However, I shall again try to explain my “split theory.” So, as I understand the final voting process for the Oscars, once the nominees are announces, the voters are free to cast a ballot for whichever of the nominees they like. Kind of like any voting process where you vote for a favorite. If you have one movie way out front and a finite number of votes, second place is going to have to find a whole lot of votes somewhere in order to stage an upset. However, if you have two movies that are neck-and-neck, then the winner isn’t going to have nearly as many votes as the winner in the first situation. Thus, for #3 to stage an upset, it doesn’t need to find nearly as many votes as #2 did in the previous scenario. Also, it means whatever wins isn’t going to have a majority of the voters, so it doesn’t have to appeal to as wide an audience.

    You–”I, too, won’t argue of Inception’s chances being nominated.”
    Response–”too” implies that there’s something else you didn’t want to argue, yet this is the first thing you haven’t wanted to argue. Which is good. Common ground!

    You–But winning? Heck, I’d say Toy Story (which has everything you’ve listed on Inception going for it plus more) has a bigger snowball’s chance.
    Response–OK, so you’re validating the things I’ve listed for Inception. you see, more common ground!
    Yes, Toy Story 3 is the other blockbuster/big hit/people’s movie in the mix (so far, at least…) It has a few issues: 1) the Animated Feature award might be a consolication prize, 2) so far 0 animated movies have won and only 2 sequels, 3) INCEPTION will likely get a lot more nominations, since it’s a tech powerhouse and animated movies don’t compete in a lot of categories. Using Kris’ predictions, INCEPTION
    might get 10, TOY STORY only 4; 4) TOY STORY won’t likely have acting, directing, or editing nominations. It’s hard to win without any of those. Further, INCEPTION will appeal to all branches of the Academy, while animated movies don;t employ the skills of everyone in the Academy. 5) INCEPTION has a star director and star actor out front; Pixar and the voice of Tom Hanks aren’t bad for stars, but a popular director and Tom Hanks in the flesh would be more competitive.

    You–”And we’ve heard all the same reasons before for “The Matrix, The Dark Knight and ET”. Didn’t help much then, did it?
    Me–No, although it seemed to work for GLADIATOR, LORD OF THE RINGS 3, TITANIC, and FORREST GUMP.

    You–”Your hand-picked examples don’t make much sense either. What does Adrien Brody or Braveheart (both very strong, best director winning contenders) have to do with Inception or it’s opposition?”
    Response–Going into the big night, Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson were the two frontrunners with major liabilities, while Adrien Brody was the darkhorse. Going in to December 1995, SENSE AND SENSIBILITY and APOLLO 13 were the two frontrunners that we weren;t quite sure on, until Mel won the Golden Globe for director and then everyone remembered how much they liked that movie.

    You–And please spare, me the whole “don’t appeal to everybody” logic. That almost never happens anyway.
    Me–Good, you agree that that never happens. So, let’s look at what movie would best fit with the people whom KING’S SPEECH and SOCIAL NETWORK don’t appeal to. they’re both arthouse pictures with crossover appeal. Thus a blockbuster that could play in an arthouse seems like a viable alternative. Thus, INCEPTION!

    Finally, if you would like to respond, may I request more argument, less pointless snark!

  • 94 12-02-2010 at 11:54 am

    Maxim said...

    John, I don’t know where to start with you since you keep using rankings made by people who predict the likelihood of a nomination as the basis of your winning scenario analysis.

    I am not saying that Inceptions is “not #3 on a lot of people’s lists”. I’ve seen the lists you are referring to.

    It’s just that I firmly believe that there is a difference here and insist that that 3rd place position you keep coming back to doesn’t necessrily translate to a most likely winning spoiler. I really cannot explain this any better without being redundant but I’ll try. Unless otherwise specified, people make ranking based on a nomination likelihood which is different from winning likelihood.

    Nevermind that those people don’t actually get to vote for movies. Sorry for trying to add some objectivity to a purely hypotehtical conversation. You are certainly free to use your own logic to come up with your own predictions. It’s all for fun anyway and I’d really hate for this to sound the wrong way.

    That said, since we are talking and debating, if I see a place where I can provide a good argument or correct some misconceptions I try to do so. I still believe, for example, that your grasp of the voting process is somewhat shaky (as is true for most people, actually).

    I’ll also end by saying that Inception is a lot more comparible to Avatar, Matrix, Minority Report and ET then it is to Gladiator (huh?), Return of the King, Titanic and Forest Gump. Combined. Frankly, the invocation of those titles in the concept of Inception is as puzzling to me as how Rich Ross is using then in regard to Toy Story 3. But that is another story.

    And just so it doesn’t sound like snark, I’ll clarify that you cannot compare a sci-fi film (which, while good wasn’t groundbracking – I am sorry) to a film like Titanic. Just like when you insisted on genre basis for Toy Story I will argue for the same here.

  • 95 12-02-2010 at 2:45 pm

    John said...

    All right, Mr. Maxim, I shall engage!
    So you agree it will likely be nominated, and you have seen Inception #3 on many prediction lists of movies likely to get nominated. Whether or not that is the third most likely movie to win or not, it does show a fairly strong base of support. Furthermore, just a guess, but its box-office does indicate that many people have seen it.
    (Oscar voters are a) human and b) don;t see everything, so the fact that a movie made some bank makes it arguably likely that many voters have seen it.)

    Next point, the Oscarologists don’t vote, the voters do. This is quite true. Right now, the Oscarologists are telling us that KINGS SPEECH or SOCIAL NETWORK will win (and predicting otherwise is folly!) Well, that’s fine and well, but it doesn;t mean that’s what they’ll actually vote for. See CRASH or Juliette Binoche. What it does mean is that the frontrunner is the guy who gets backlash. Thus, if INCEPTION can remain viable throughout Awards season without becoming the frontrunner, then it can be positioned as the viable alternative. It’s already been mentioned by the Grammys, the Golden Satellites and NBR, so that remains a likely scenario.

    Sure, we’re talking and debating on an engaging topic, and I thought it was funny when you called BS on someone’s post, hence why I used that.

    voting process? Uh, everyone votes for 10 movies + the category in which they are a member. Price Waterhouse looks at the #1 votes, sees if there’s enough to get a nominee, then they go to the #2s and so on. Thus, to get nominated, you have to be a lot of people’s favorite choice of the movies that are nominated. then everyone votes for their favorite contender in each category. Am I right?

    Yeah, it’s more like the movies you mentioned than the ones I mentioned. My point was that the popular blockbuster can win. No, it wasn’t as big or popular as LORD OF THE RINGS, GUMP, or TITANIC. I’d say it was about on par with GLADIATOR, which was viewed somewhat similarly as December arrived 10 years ago: popular summer movie that looked like it could get nominated, but would the Academy really go for that?

    One other factor it’s got in its favor is that Mr. Nolan got snubbed for THE DARK KNIGHT, MEMENTO (OK, less so, but he got a DGA nom for that).

    I believe you also doubted INCEPTION’s likelihood of nomination for Screenplay? Well, popular writer, we know it wasn’t written by committee, inventive ideas, hypercomplicated plotting, emotional core at the center… yeah, I think that can get nominated. Also, writers would likely want to reward a writer who got a brainy blockuster made by studio dilletantes!

    EDITING? Action movie, cutting between three levels of something at three different speeds… yeah I think it can win for Editing. SOCIAL NETWORK and 127 HOURS would seem to be its biggest competition.

    Oh, I haven’T SEEN the kings speech. iS THAT likely to be nominated for Editing?

  • 96 12-05-2010 at 12:14 am

    Leone said...

    Admittedly, I haven’t seen True Grit but I have seen The Fighter and there’s no way any performance can beat Melissa Leo’s portrayal as that mother. No one.

  • 97 12-05-2010 at 12:51 pm

    Domenica said...

    Best Picture: The King’s Speech
    Best Director: David Fincher ‘The Social Network’
    Best Actor: Colin Firth ‘The King’s Speech’
    Best Actress: Lesley Manville ‘Another Year’
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale ‘The Fighter’
    Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter ‘The King’s Speech’
    I think anyone who sees Manville’s performance will not be able to vote for anyone else. She’s truly extraordinary and deserves the award. James Franco might beat Colin Firth but seeing as Firth deserved to win last year they might make it up to him with this award. Melissa Leo is a serious threat for Bonham Carter, both are wonderful actresses so … And Geoffrey Rush might sneak in too. But I don’t know.

  • 98 12-05-2010 at 2:44 pm

    devon said...

    tron legacy will win for best visual effects no film in 2D will ever win best visual effects again

  • 99 12-07-2010 at 9:48 am

    Maxim said...

    John, I think that the reason why we are disagreeing (and I don’t think that until after the Oscars are awarded and at least one of us is afforded the much needed benefit of hindsight we will see eye to eye) is beause we are approaching this debate from two widely different positions. You are a passionate fan, going for whatever strong points you are seeing while I am more reserved when it comes to Oscars and perfectly willing to examine any and all points of contention.

    Again, I’ve certainly been were you are before in terms of having a personal stake in the race so I can at understand how that feels, excitement and all.

    So this becomes not about what will win but, as it often happens, about us. Explaining where we stand and maybe learning something from each other. That’s the takeaway as far as I see it.

    The root of the disagreement, which in turn I think stems from the views I described above lies in the fact that you firmly stand by your #3 placement theory. Not just as reflected on lists (wherein it is no longer that hight, btw) but actual reality. I cannot agree to that. Please understand that, this has little to do with qualities of the film or the lack of thereof.

    I will not, you know, bet my money on it, but then I wouldn’t do that for any film, not the least for one I know will be nominated. Here, again is that issue of difference between nominees and winners. A point you have twice declined to really address in a thread about winner predictions.

    And so when you list all those reason for why Inception will be nominated or will win Best Original Screenplay, to me they read more like reasons why it SHOULD be nominated because that’s just how I view Oscars and most other types of awards. It’s not like I don’t think it has no chance either. I am just, you know, reserved, if only because of Nolan’s track record.

    Then there are things I disagree with to a greater extend. For one thing, Crash was always a big player in the race and for all the weird calls he has made, I just don’t see Roger Ebert predicting “Inception” for the win (again, see the title of this thread). And as for this:

    ” Thus, if INCEPTION can remain viable throughout Awards season without becoming the frontrunner, then it can be positioned as the viable alternative. It’s already been mentioned by the Grammys, the Golden Satellites and NBR, so that remains a likely scenario.”

    Mentions are just that – mentions. And there is nothing wrong with being mentioned. I think it is a big honor, personally and don’t realy want to cheapen it.

    And on a personal level, Inception’s editing to me, while undeniably impressive all things considered, was also sloppy at times. Part of it is due to the accsionally bloated nature of the proceedings (sorry) but still.