In Contention


OFF THE CARPET: Heading into the home stretch

Posted by Kristopher Tapley · 11:48 am · February 21st, 2011

I’m watching CNN’s report of the on-going situation in Libya as I write these comparably pointless words. The “real world” seems so unique, so foreign after having our head in the awards season clouds since September. Now, six months in, victory lane is a mere six days away. And man, it’s been a marathon.

So let’s dive in one more time.

The journey for “The Social Network” has been a fascinating one. And now, with wins for Best Film Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay and, potentially, Best Director coming, some are arguing an upset by the film in the Best Picture race is still in the cards. It would be delightful, but it would be considerably more surprising than the moment a number of pundits point to as a bellwether shocker in the Academy’s recent history: “And the Oscar goes to…‘Crash.’ Whoa.”

Most, however, seem to agree that “The King’s Speech” has it in the bag, and I think that’s sound. The only question is, to what extent has it won over the Academy? Anywhere from three to 11 wins makes perfect sense.

Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay. I feel we can take those to the bank. Best Original Score is on the next tier and I feel pretty good about that. Best Supporting Actress has become a talking point in the wake of Helena Bonham Carter’s blasé charm fest, and given that the category is so up for grabs, I’m leaning that way today (the only Oscar Guide entry I’ve officially changed so far).

Next up, the design fields. I mentioned a few stats in a thinking-out-loud post over the weekend, but let me restate them briefly…

The last Best Picture winner nominated for Best Art Direction to lose that award was “Gladiator,” which lost to fellow Best Picture nominee “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.” The last time before that was “Forrest Gump,” which lost to period piece “The Madness of King George,” and before that, it was “Unforgiven,” which lost to period piece “Howards End.”

Similarly, the last Best Picture winner nominated for Best Costume Design to lose that award was “Braveheart,” which lost to period piece “Restoration.” Before that it was “Schindler’s List,” which lost to period piece “The Age of Innocence,” and before that, it was “Driving Miss Daisy,” which lost to…you guessed it, a period piece, “Henry V.”

Meanwhile, no Tim Burton film nominated for Best Art Direction has ever lost the award, while no Tim Burton film nominated for Best Costume Design has ever won it. I bring that up because “Alice in Wonderland” is largely considered formidable in both fields, though many are taking the BAFTA and ADG wins for “Inception” as a sign it’ll triumph (which just doesn’t compute to me for various reasons already mentioned here and on the podcast).

Finally, the only true fantasies to win Best Costume Design in the Academy’s history are “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” and “Star Wars,” both respected blockbusters with 11 and 10 nominations respectively. It’s more common for a fantasy to win Best Art Direction, however.

Bottom line: With that information and given the nature of competition in the categories, I’m comfortable expecting “The King’s Speech” to win both. So if you’re keeping score, that’s seven wins, which is a fair number to me. It’s the same number “Shakespeare in Love” took home in 1998, perhaps the best template for “The King’s Speech.” And eight, if I’m being honest, begins to sound like too much.

But there are still other possibilities. First on that list, Best Director.

Tom Hooper won the DGA, voted on by a vast organization made up of various disciplines, not just film directors — kind of like the Academy. David Fincher won the BAFTA, voted on by that organization’s specialized directing branch, as in, film directors. He also dominated the critics awards circuit, which is beside the point but I’ll mention it anyway.

That’s a real conundrum. I’m currently predicting Hooper, which makes the most sense to me. But again, eight seems like too much. Maybe pulling back on that supporting actress call is in order. I’m just thinking out loud here.

The final considerations are Best Cinematography, which I think is entirely possible, especially when you consider this painstaking but interesting stat. Nevertheless, I put it on the penultimate tier with Best Film Editing (which may have taken a hit from ACE) and Best Supporting Actor (which has a few hopping off the Christian Bale train in favor of Geoffrey Rush following a surprising BAFTA win, but I find that ill-advised, considering how that organization clearly didn’t respond to “The Fighter”).

At the bottom, the one I think we can all chalk up as the nomination being the reward: Best Sound Mixing.

So, that’s where I’m at.  The Oscar Guide is on-going and only one, as mentioned, has been retroactively updated.  The Contenders section has been updated in full with “final” predictions (noted in the sidebar, as always), save for the remaining five categories.  Those will be updated throughout the week.  If I should change anything else (possibilities: Best Original Song, Best Documentary Feature and Best Live Action Short), I’ll be sure to let you know here, but all predictions will be really and truly finalized Friday and announced, with Anne’s, on this week’s Oscar Talk.

Feel free to go ahead and start chalking up your final predictions and/or thoughts on the race in the comments section below.  Six…more…days.

(A reminder: Tomorrow brings part one of our annual “top 10 shots of the year” column.)

[Photos: The Weinstein Company]




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61 responses so far

  • 1 2-21-2011 at 12:04 pm

    Gustavo said...

    “t would be delightful, but it would be considerably more surprising than the moment a number of pundits point to as a bellwether shocker in the Academy’s recent history: “And the Oscar goes to…‘Crash.’ Whoa.””

    Would you care to elaborate? Two months ago TSN was the absolute frontrunner, and got the best reviews in many a moon. CRASH wasn’t anything like it.

  • 2 2-21-2011 at 12:05 pm

    americanrequeim said...

    im rooting for rush to overtake bale big time and predicting it. while i love helena im not rooting for her to win but i am predicting it. after hooper won the dga i thought it was over but i just cant see it happening now. i think its over for best picture but a suprise would be great. anything else but the fighter or winters bone winning would be pretty exciting

  • 3 2-21-2011 at 12:14 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Gustavo: Because the industry is so clearly behind one movie, even if the critics are so clearly behind the other. Crash still won ACE and SAG. Brokeback won DGA and PGA. And in the final weeks, everyone was hearing a LOT of Crash votes. It wasn’t a real shocker.

  • 4 2-21-2011 at 12:18 pm

    Ripley said...

    Great analysis, 8 wins sounds about right to me:

    Locks:
    Picture
    Actor
    Original Screenplay

    Likely:
    Costume
    Art

    If they REALLY LOVE IT:
    Director
    Supporting Actor
    Supporting Actress

    Possible but strong competion:
    Music Soundtract
    Sound Mixing
    Cinematography
    Editing

    I agree 8 seems likely to me, anything less would be disappointing from this long-time Oscar watcher.

  • 5 2-21-2011 at 12:28 pm

    Loyal said...

    I’m in for 5

    Picture , Actor, Screenplay, Score, and Costume.

    I don’t see Editing, Sound Mixing, or Cinematography happening.

    That leaves Director, Art Direction, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress as possibilities.

    On a personal note, I would love to see Helena win Supporting Actress. She’s been a hoot all season long.

  • 6 2-21-2011 at 12:59 pm

    JJ1 said...

    The King’s Speech – picture, actor, s. actress, screenplay, score (5).

    Inception – art direction, both sound, visual effects (4)

    The Social Network – director, screenplay, editing (3)

    The Fighter – s. actor (1)

    True Grit – cinematography (1)

    Alice – costumes (1)

    Toy Story 3 – animated (1)

    127 Hours – song (1)

    The Wolfman – make-up (1)

    Foreign – In a Better World
    Doc. – Inside Job
    others – Na WeWe, Madagascar, Poster Girl.

    And my thought of the week is that: although nothing has shown evidence for this at all … I think Amy Adams could have made some secret impact in phase 2.

  • 7 2-21-2011 at 1:34 pm

    Jonathan Spuij said...

    I feel that it’s going to be one of the widest spreads ever with Inception, TKS and TSN all bagging 4 awards each.

  • 8 2-21-2011 at 1:34 pm

    Graysmith said...

    This really cracked me up:

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/blogs/race/kings-speech-has-oscars-history-159783

    Talk about finding the smallest, most trivial little detail to use for precedent! They could just as well have written that no movie starring Guy Pearce has ever won Best Picture the year after a movie starring Guy Pearce won Best Picture. Since that’s never happened before, The King’s Speech clearly won’t win.

  • 9 2-21-2011 at 1:44 pm

    Graysmith said...

    With such a high-calibre line-up of Best Picture nominees this year I just feel like it’s going to be a spread the wealth kind of year, not a “King’s Sweep”. I’ve got The King’s Speech pegged for five wins, with The Social Network and Inception trailing it with three a piece. The only Best Picture nominees I think will go home empty-handed are The Kids Are All Right, Winter’s Bone and 127 Hours (but the latter could surely win Original Song too).

  • 10 2-21-2011 at 1:51 pm

    Loyal said...

    You really only need to go back to the year of Crash to find the AMPAS truly spreading the wealth.

    Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha, and King Kong all took home 3 Oscars apiece.

    Similarly, Gladiator took home 5 Oscars while Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Traffic took home 3 each.

  • 11 2-21-2011 at 2:03 pm

    Ben said...

    Kris,

    I’m intrigued by the conventional wisdom stating TKS is a lock for Best Picture (which I agree with) and director is more or less a 50/50 proposition for Fincher (which I also agree with). Referential ballot aside, that seems a very odd dynamic; in splits BP seems to be quite close.

    Obviously we don’t have vote tallies, but it’s safe to say Shakespeare in Love, Gladiator, Chicago, and Crash’s BP wins are relatively slim (Chicago was thought to be a lock but I think we all thought Pianist could win after Brody/Polanski/Screenplay won). I mean if TKS is a 99% lock, shouldn’t Hooper be safe, and if Fincher is a slight favorite shouldn’t TSN at least have a decent chance. The dynamic confuses me and doesn’t seem to be with precedence, the only example I can think of is a reverse case of 2006 where BP was considered a 4 way toss up, but Scorsese was more or less considered a lock.

  • 12 2-21-2011 at 2:05 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Actually, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Traffic won four Oscars each.

  • 13 2-21-2011 at 2:17 pm

    Joel said...

    Each day the notion of Helena taking Best Supporting Actress seems like a done deal. Then when I think about the BAFTA’s, I look at her competition: she didn’t go up against Melissa Leo (not nominated) or Hailee Steinfeld (Best Actress nominee). Can we take the BAFTA’s seriously for Supporting Actress or was this just continued finger-banging for a King’s sweep?

  • 14 2-21-2011 at 2:22 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Each day the notion of Helena taking Best Supporting Actress seems like a done deal.

    Why? Your observation about the BAFTA was already widely noted before the ceremony, so Bonham Carter’s win there didn’t change anything. She has as much chance as any of her rivals, but I haven’t heard anyone call it a “done deal.”

  • 15 2-21-2011 at 2:26 pm

    Loyal said...

    Even better Guy!

    Damn you nonexistent edit button!!!

  • 16 2-21-2011 at 2:31 pm

    JJ1 said...

    More on what Ben said … Kris, why DO you feel so strongly on TKS winning (and clearly, it’s not just you)? I’m fine with either TKS, TSN, or The Fighter winning.

    But is it from talking to voters, and/or mostly because of the PGA/DGA/SAG/BAFTA?

  • 17 2-21-2011 at 2:34 pm

    Graysmith said...

    @Loyal,

    Personally I consider most years to be “spread the wealth” years. Some are more evenly spread out than others, surely (like the ones you noted), but I only really consider years like Slumdog Millionaire and The Return of the King to be the ones going against the usual.

  • 18 2-21-2011 at 2:48 pm

    Loyal said...

    @ Graysmith

    Oh definitely. I was just responding to Jonathan Spuij’s post about this year bring “one of the widest spreads ever.”

    For some odd reason, I found myself rewatching the 2004 broadcast over the weekend. Sweeps, true sweeps like Return of the King, are very strange to witness. It did however make for some great jokes from Billy Crystal and other Oscar winners that night.

  • 19 2-21-2011 at 2:51 pm

    Hero said...

    The only thing I feel truly confident predicting is that this will be my worst year for predictions in a long time. I’m constantly over at Picktainment changing my mind, and I still don’t like how it looks.

    Does Hooper really win on the broad appeal of TKS?

    Is my theory sound that the Academy likes young girls and lead roles slumming in Supporting so HS will win?

    Will the two cartoon songs from beloved song writers split the vote so that “If I Rise” wins?

    All the predictors say TSN will win editing, but will everyone think all the important editing was done by Sorkin so I should change to TKS?

    I don’t even want to think about Art Direction and Costumes anymore.

    Am I crazy for thinking that the Academy, when in doubt, always votes for aging, making Barney’s Version a clever prediction?

    Gah! I’m going crazy!

  • 20 2-21-2011 at 2:51 pm

    daveylow said...

    I think what’s going to push TKS to the best picture award are those acting nominations, even if only one or two of the actors win.

    I do wonder if Inception is going to only win 2 awards at most on Oscar night. I think lots of people admire it but not as many love it. (I’m one of the lovers, but I don’t vote.)

  • 21 2-21-2011 at 2:52 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    My thoughts on Carter winning have little to do with the BAFTA win, outside of the wave it added to her already gaining momentum.

  • 22 2-21-2011 at 3:21 pm

    Andrea said...

    I still maintain that the only possible upset is Annette Bening having enough good will to unseat Portman.

    It’s almost like people have been hoping for Melissa Leo to lose all along and are now stretching and tying themselves in knots looking for reasons to think she will lose. HBC was charming at a luncheon? PLEASE.

    If anyone beats Leo it will be Adams. I don’t know if people realize it, but The Fighter almost always gets mentioned on voters favorites.

  • 23 2-21-2011 at 3:47 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Andrea said, “If anyone beats Leo it will be Adams. I don’t know if people realize it, but The Fighter almost always gets mentioned on voters favorites”.

    And I said above that I get a similar impression during this phase 2. a) maybe some anti-Melissa Leo sentiment shifts directly to Adams. b) Adams has popped-up on a couple of secret voter ballots. c) she’s been everywhere this whole season.

    It could be a ‘wohhhhh, out of left field’ win.

  • 24 2-21-2011 at 3:58 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    “HBC was charming at a luncheon? PLEASE.”

    It’s more than that. But the rest of that seems really deep-seeded and weird. Who has been rooting against Leo from the beginning? Odd.

  • 25 2-21-2011 at 4:26 pm

    Brock Landers said...

    Anne is still predicting Annette Bening for Best Actress. She really needs to let that one go.

  • 26 2-21-2011 at 4:56 pm

    James C said...

    I hope the Academy says “Wait a minute.”, and scratches their heads if The Social Network were to win Best Directing, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing, but not Best Picture.

  • 27 2-21-2011 at 4:59 pm

    Andrea said...

    “It’s more than that. But the rest of that seems really deep-seeded and weird. Who has been rooting against Leo from the beginning? Odd”

    Not odd at all. Leo’s performance is called overrated on many awards related messages boards and comment sections. Adams and Steinfeld are the favorites from the fans from what I can tell.

    And Kris, you many not have been rooting for Leo to lose per say, but you were dreaming of a Hailee Steinfeld win for quite some time. Jeff Wells prefers Adams. Sasha and Anne Thompson are not huge fans of Leo’s performance.

    Rooting for her to lose may have been a poor choice of words. But there is clearly a sentiment to see her lose IMO that may be clouding the predictability of what will be her eventual win.

  • 28 2-21-2011 at 5:00 pm

    Andrea said...

    “Anne is still predicting Annette Bening for Best Actress. She really needs to let that one go.”

    So is Pete Hammond.

  • 29 2-21-2011 at 5:25 pm

    JJ1 said...

    After she won the London awards and before she lost BAFTA, I was temporarily leaning on the possibility of her (Bening) winning.

  • 30 2-21-2011 at 5:26 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Well, Leo’s performance IS overrated, but in any case.

    I wasn’t dreaming of Steinfeld’s win. I was just expecting it, given that it’s a lead performance and a fine one. And obviously, judging from the recent Gurus listing, it was prescient. Even though I’m now jumping off the train I started in the first place.

    Anyway, nothing has clouded anything for me. Never does. I was ready to pull the trigger for her until those ads. It’s been a wide-open category since day one, and remains as much. Any of four actress could win and I wouldn’t be shocked. Okay, Adams would be a little surprising, but it’d make sense seeing as she clearly (IMO) gives a better performance.

  • 31 2-21-2011 at 5:27 pm

    JJ1 said...

    That is to say, it still could happen. But Portman has won so many industry awards; I think she’s got it.

  • 32 2-21-2011 at 5:44 pm

    Speaking English said...

    ***I hope the Academy says “Wait a minute.”, and scratches their heads if The Social Network were to win Best Directing, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing, but not Best Picture.***

    Hmmm… sounds like a certain film from 2000…

  • 33 2-21-2011 at 5:55 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Wow. Just watched the alternate ending to ’127 Hours’. It’s about 10 minutes longer than the original (post arm-cutting).

    WHY oh why was the alternate ending not the actual ending. It was just much, much more satisfying; cinematically and emotionally. Anyone else seen it? Agree? Disagree?

  • 34 2-21-2011 at 5:57 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Sorry for this digression ^. I just watched it and had to comment. :)

  • 35 2-21-2011 at 6:02 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Where did you see that?

  • 36 2-21-2011 at 6:03 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Boyle and Beaufoy talked briefly about it when I interviewed them, but I forgot what it was.

  • 37 2-21-2011 at 6:25 pm

    JJ1 said...

    On the dvd. I got it this week. My aunt works for a library and always gets the new releases 8 days before release to the public.

  • 38 2-21-2011 at 6:26 pm

    Kyle said...

    There’s a great gallery on ew.com today about the ten actors who should have won their oscars for different roles.

    I have thought that Amy Adams could win all season but kept doubting myself because, IMO, it has felt as thought she has never been considered ‘the frontrunner’, as Leo, Steinfeld and now Carter have been at some time.

    There seems to be so much good will towards Adams, and with people really loving her performances in Junebug, and Doubt, and specifically, Enchanted, could this be a situation where she is rewarded for her work in The Fighter, as well as all of the amazing performances she has churned out all within the past few years?

  • 39 2-21-2011 at 6:28 pm

    JJ1 said...

    I think the original ending is great. I just found the extended alternate to be more complete, so to speak. Very satisfying for me.

    Showed the film to my mom. She liked it a lot, but also found the alt. ending to be excellent.

  • 40 2-21-2011 at 6:42 pm

    Hero said...

    JJ1,
    As a librarian, I have to say what you’re aunt is doing is very naughty.

  • 41 2-21-2011 at 6:50 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Ha, I figured I’d get someone to say as such ^.

    Well, I believe her whole library staff takes turns doing this. And they’re all great women, however naughty the act is. ;)

  • 42 2-21-2011 at 6:53 pm

    Hero said...

    The administration would have our heads! We occasionally get frantic calls from Tech Services telling us not to shelve something because they accidentally sent it to us one day early. ;)

  • 43 2-21-2011 at 7:08 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Haha. My aunt is head of Tech Services. I won’t tell if you won’t. ;)

    Back to the alternate ending for a sec. It’s the kind of ending that the Academy would have eaten up. And it also gave Franco more time to shine. And he does.

  • 44 2-21-2011 at 7:11 pm

    Hero said...

    Hell, I can’t even get our people to order a single copy of Fish Tank!

    Also, now I I have to get on the hold list to see this new ending. Thanks. ;)

  • 45 2-21-2011 at 7:46 pm

    Phil said...

    I don’t think think TKS is going to do nearly as well as you do, Kris. I think it’s only going to 3-4 Oscars (and maybe even just 2). You can’t play the game of saying “8 sounds like too much” – you have to pick each category individually on its own merit. The bottom line is: The King’s Speech is very good in A LOT of categories… but in most of them it’s not the very best. I think it finishes 2nd in voting for Costumes, Director, Supporting Actor, and Score… finishes 3rd or 4th in Supporting Actress, Cinematography, and Editing… and I actually think there’s a very good chance it loses either Screenplay or Picture (probably not both). The only “locks” I truly see are Actor and Art Direction – but the point I’m making is it’s perfectly plausible for a film to be nominated in this many categories but just not be good enough to win most of them. Even for a Best Picture winner (honestly, how many of the Academy members do you really think take things such as costumes or score into account when determining which Picture was the best?)

  • 46 2-21-2011 at 7:46 pm

    Speaking English said...

    ***There’s a great gallery on ew.com today about the ten actors who should have won their oscars for different roles.***

    It’s actually not only for actors. They bewilderingly chose Roman Polanski under the impression it was somehow a “make up” Oscar and not one that was wholly deserved.

  • 47 2-21-2011 at 8:03 pm

    SC said...

    My guesses:

    TKS (6) – Picture, Actor, Original Screenplay, Costumes, Art Direction, Score

    TSN (3) – Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing

    Inception (3) – Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Edition

    The Fighter (2) – Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress

    Toy Story 3 (2) – Animated Feature, Original Song

    True Grit (1) – Cinematography

  • 48 2-21-2011 at 8:06 pm

    SC said...

    Oh, and:

    Black Swan (1) – Best Actress

    Best Supporting Actress is the only category I’m not at all sure of.

  • 49 2-21-2011 at 8:16 pm

    Mike said...

    I still am hoping for an Annette Bening win, as I have been all season. The reasona that I use to convince myself are that AMPAS clearly didn’t like Black Swan as much as other groups, the fact that Black Swan is so out there and will not appeal to older voters, the fact that Annette Bening is due and Hollywood royalty, and the fact that when Pete Hammond did his talk tothe voters thing, Pormtan had one, Lawrence had one, but Bening had like 4.

    And I still pray for an Adams win. She is so deserving, and this is her career best performance.

  • 50 2-21-2011 at 8:23 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Phil: I have picked each category on it’s own merit, thanks. The “eight sounds like too much” was just a statement of perception. It feels wrong. That’s all. But believe me, each field is considered fully and deeply. Probably too much so.

    This, my friend:

    “…in most of them it’s not the very best…”

    …is the “game” you don’t want to be caught playing.

  • 51 2-21-2011 at 8:26 pm

    PaulinJapan said...

    I agree that this year does have a strange dynamic. If Best Pic is the lock Kris et al seem to think it is, then Director should also go to Hooper considering the relative rarity of a split. Sasha Stone does a good job of going into the nitty gritty of this paradox.

    I hope TSN gets it and while I will probably be disappointed I can imagine the scenario come Oscar night where TSN has won Editing & Screenplay, Fincher gets Director (all favored outcomes) and at that point its odds for triumphing must surely have narrowed dramatically.

  • 52 2-21-2011 at 10:28 pm

    j said...

    Hmm, supporting actress upset possibles:
    Arkin=Carter (Bafta vs. all other majors)
    Kline=Steinfeld (No Globe nom, Bafta lead nom)

  • 53 2-22-2011 at 5:55 am

    TWC said...

    I know I’m stubborn but I’m sticking with it and calling it now:

    Toy Story 3 for Best Picture

    History will be made!

  • 54 2-22-2011 at 7:08 am

    Phil said...

    Oh I know you’ve considered each category fully and deeply, Kris – I read all of your Oscar guides and find them to be some of the insightful analysis on the Net. I was just explaining my rationale for why I think The King’s Speech could be nominated for 12 awards, win Best Picture, and STILL only take home 3 statues.

    An interesting thing I found when doing research – not since “Saving Private Ryan” beat “Shakespeare in Love” for Sound Mixing have both films that were the leaders for Best Picture been nominated for Sound and the Best Pic winner lost to the runner-up. The only reason I mention this is because if The King’s Speech or The Social Network wins this category (which they give out early on, no?) I believe we will have our Best Picture winner.

  • 55 2-22-2011 at 7:12 am

    Maxim said...

    “HBC was charming at a luncheon? PLEASE.”

    I’d say she was. More than that, she seemed completely at ease and in control.

    “It’s actually not only for actors. They bewilderingly chose Roman Polanski under the impression it was somehow a “make up” Oscar and not one that was wholly deserved.”

    Thanks for reminding me why I don’t read EW.

  • 56 2-22-2011 at 7:16 am

    Maxim said...

    “An interesting thing I found when doing research – not since “Saving Private Ryan” beat “Shakespeare in Love” for Sound Mixing have both films that were the leaders for Best Picture been nominated for Sound and the Best Pic winner lost to the runner-up. The only reason I mention this is because if The King’s Speech or The Social Network wins this category (which they give out early on, no?) I believe we will have our Best Picture winner.”

    Phil, I don’t think anyone is predicting The King’s Speech to win Sound Mixing. In all fairness though, the same is probably is true for The Social Network.

  • 57 2-22-2011 at 7:19 am

    Phil said...

    I agree Maxim, it’s not likely, but I think there’s an outside shot it goes The Social Network’s way – and if it does you can mark it down for Picture.

  • 58 2-22-2011 at 7:31 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Maxim: I don’t think the “PLEASE” was meant to imply Bonham Carter was anything but charming at the luncheon — rather that said charm shouldn’t be a reason to vote for her performance.

  • 59 2-22-2011 at 7:37 am

    Sawyer said...

    My predicted wins for TKS:

    Picture
    Director
    Actor
    Screenplay
    Art Direction
    Score
    Costume

    I’m going to hold out for a Melissa Leo win. I don’t think she is the best of the nominees (Weaver by a mile), but she was the choice of actors before FYC-gate, and I think enough of them will stick with her, imagining that if the shoe were on their foot, they would want to be judged on the performance and not the game.

    I’m also thinking if Black Swan is awarded anywhere else besides Best Actress, it will be Cinematography. Although True Grit is a good choice too because it might be that film’s only award, and they clearly dug it. I’m still 50/50 on that one.

    I like TSN for Editing, and of course Inception to sweep the audio/visual categories – Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

    Predictions:
    Picture – The King’s Speech
    Director – The King’s Speech
    Actor – The King’s Speech
    Actress – Black Swan
    Sup. Actor – The Fighter
    Sup. Actress – The Fighter (Leo)
    Adapted – The Social Network
    Original – The King’s Speech
    Art Direction – The King’s Speech
    Cinematography – True Grit
    Costume – The King’s Speech
    Editing – The Social Network
    Makeup – The Way Back
    Score – The King’s Speech
    Song – 127 Hours
    Sound Editing – Inception
    Sound Mixing – Inception
    Visual Effects – Inception
    Animated – Toy Story 3

  • 60 2-22-2011 at 7:38 am

    Maxim said...

    Oh, I certainly agree that it shouldn’t be a reason (though it probably provided a little bit of a boost to her at a time when likability became important). I was just reinstating my impression of her. Sorry it was a bit hard to understand what Andrea meant in that context.