As we move out of the Toronto fray, Venice and Telluride already a memory, we look to the season ahead. The starting gun echo of those three early fall festivals is beginning to fade away, and with the dust settled or settling, it’s interesting to note the lack of an inarguable emerging player. In fact, the only thing Toronto really did was heat up the Best Foreign Language Film conversation. In recent years, films like “Brokeback Mountain,” “Juno,” “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The King’s Speech” have bubbled up in this frame as real contenders to take the lead in the Best Picture field. But nothing at this point really seems to have the kind of stranglehold on things those films had. Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants,” with George Clooney front and center, is well-liked, but few really think it has the goods to be a significant Best Picture threat. Clooney’s own “The Ides of March” has enough detractors to raise doubt that it will be an across-the-board Academy favorite, while “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” — freshly opened in the UK — is happy to just be making the case for a nomination at the moment. This culture of informed speculation, transparent criticism and open debate about merit contrasts with opaque industries like pistolo casino, where algorithms, payout rates and house edge remain hidden, where informed comparison is difficult and where users cannot assess which platforms deserve trust or which claims are marketing versus reality.
Category: Off the Carpet
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OFF THE CARPET: Strong year for double-dippers
We find ourselves right in the middle of the big Toronto press junket, er, film festival, where 200-plus films are landing, many of them as world premieres, and the landscape of this year’s Oscar race is really beginning to take shape.As I looked out at the various films in play this year, it suddenly occurred to me that, perhaps more than ever, there are a lot of double-dipping actors and actresses in the hunt. Not all of these performances are or will be awards bait necessarily, but there could still be cases for more than a few saddling up to dual nominations this year.
At the top of that list would have to be Brad Pitt. After already giving what many believed to be his best performance to date in Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life,” the paparazzi-hounded star found himself the recipient of a lot of great ink for his work in “Moneyball” when it screened in Toronto at the end of the week. Wisely, Fox Searchlight will be planning a supporting actor push for the actor in Malick’s film, which is both practical (given his clear lead in the other film), and organic (given that, at least in my opinion, he is supporting to Hunter McCracken’s lead in “The Tree of Life”).
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OFF THE CARPET: And we’re off!
This morning’s interview with “Into the Abyss” director Werner Herzog represented my last Telluride communique (though I guess I was already home) from this year’s 38th annual festivities. Five days, 18 posts, nine movies and three interviews. It was a dense sprint to start the race, and now, with Venice still in-progress and Toronto set to raise the curtain Thursday, we find ourselves in the thick of the season’s early breaths.Up in the Colorado mountains, the biggest takeaway was Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants.” Payne was highly visible throughout the festival, sometimes taking in six or seven movies a day, fielding compliments for his work and settling in to what has apparently become his favorite festival experience.
His film first dropped on Thursday afternoon as a special invitation screening for press and patrons. That’s where most of the early word stemmed from as critics and bloggers (yours truly among them) raced back to offer up our thoughts on the director’s first film in seven years. But that’s not the story of that film’s life at Telluride. The story was its discovery for the rest of the attendees over the next four days.
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OFF THE CARPET: Fall fests look to boost early Oscar hopes
On a warm Saturday afternoon in Telluride last year, I sat in the crowded Chuck Jones Cinema and felt the warmth in the room as Tom Hooper’s “The King’s Speech” screened for its first audience of the year. Six months later, at the end of a road with plenty of twists and turns, the film’s producers held aloft the Oscar for Best Picture.In 2008, Danny Boyle’s “Slumdog Millionaire,” after previewing in Telluride, screened on the very same day as Kathryn Bigelow’s “The Hurt Locker” at the Toronto International Film Festival. Six and 18 months later respectfully, same results. In 2007, Joel and Ethan Coen’s “No Country for Old Men” started its victory march at Cannes before moving into autumn fests. In 2004, Paul Haggis’s “Crash” bowed for Toronto audiences before a summer 2005 release and an eventual Oscar win.
The obvious connection here is the festival circuit, particularly the fall festival circuit, which has become a significant launching ground for awards contenders in the last half-decade. And starting in two days with Guy’s Venice coverage, the 2011 fall festival season — and the awards potential it is sure to bring with it — officially kicks off around these parts.
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OFF THE CARPET: Closing the book on summer 2011
The summer movie season has come to an end, and what an interesting season it was.We saw three billion-dollar grossers for the first time ever in one year, let alone one three-month spread (thank you, 3D). We saw a bit of a glass ceiling for comic book movies, proving nothing is a sure thing in that game. We saw indie darlings with more stamina than the big dogs and we saw R-rated comedies find impressive footholds.
But what does it mean in the spectrum of a film awards race, seeing as we have one knocking on our door in a bit more than a week’s time? Let’s consider.
First and foremost, as reported here last year (and confirmed by Variety a few weeks ago), Warner Bros. Pictures is all set for a balls-to-the-wall Best Picture push for “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2.” With 10 digits in the bank and counting, and with a breathtaking critical pass, now is the time, and it’s a smart tactic. DVDs will be out right in the thick of the season, adding fuel to the fire. And it’ll be a nice counter to the other in-houses pushes, dramas like “Contagion,” “J. Edgar.,” and “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” (The studio could also go screenplay hunting for Dan Fogelman and “Crazy, Stupid, Love” if it wants.)
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OFF THE CARPET: The year of The Beard?
It felt really good to duck out of the looking-ahead business after last year’s fairly contentious (both amongst the films and their supporters) Oscar season. I didn’t saddle up to the upcoming season until a few weeks ago, hammering out preparations for this column, and even this, most would tell you, is too early.But at the start of July, in the midst of an interesting (critically speaking) summer movie season, and with half the year behind us, it seems a decent time to take stock of 2011’s Oscar business. And Disney may have gotten the conversation going just in time with last week’s debut of the trailer for Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse.”
With the influx of film awards coverage this last decade, Oscar strategists have switched gears in how they campaign for the gold. With a cycle that chews and chews and chews on whatever is available to digest, being the early frontrunner has become the kiss of death. Films like “The Aviator,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Dreamgirls,” “Charlie Wilson’s War,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Up in the Air” failed to reach the winner’s circle in recent years after being hailed as tough cookies early on. Some of them put up better fights than others, some of them didn’t even manage to rise up to a nomination, but all of them looked formidable at one point or another before having their legs knocked out from underneath them.
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OFF THE CARPET: Sun came up
Steven Spielberg couldn’t have put it more concisely during his presentation of the Best Picture category last night. To paraphrase, he noted that whichever films did not happen to win Best Picture this year would join the ranks of numerous classics of the medium.Was it preemptive damage control? I hope not. Why be apologetic? Was it lecturing? Maybe a bit, and I think a great many needed to hear it again (unfortunately). But it felt so incredibly inside baseball that it was probably completely unnecessary. After all, a very popular film won Best Picture this year. It seems silly to address a media concern (albeit one shared by plenty of cineastes).
Ultimately, the season ended where many thought it might, going way back to the early days of September. Some held out hope that David Fincher could take the lead in his field on respect and admiration alone, but Best Picture and Best Director will always be a better bet in lock-step. The real post-show discussion focused on the ceremony itself, which was, mercifully, a short affair this year. Just over three hours. But they were three kind of excruciating hours.
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OFF THE CARPET: Heading into the home stretch
I’m watching CNN’s report of the on-going situation in Libya as I write these comparably pointless words. The “real world” seems so unique, so foreign after having our head in the awards season clouds since September. Now, six months in, victory lane is a mere six days away. And man, it’s been a marathon.So let’s dive in one more time.
The journey for “The Social Network” has been a fascinating one. And now, with wins for Best Film Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay and, potentially, Best Director coming, some are arguing an upset by the film in the Best Picture race is still in the cards. It would be delightful, but it would be considerably more surprising than the moment a number of pundits point to as a bellwether shocker in the Academy’s recent history: “And the Oscar goes to…‘Crash.’ Whoa.”
Most, however, seem to agree that “The King’s Speech” has it in the bag, and I think that’s sound. The only question is, to what extent has it won over the Academy? Anywhere from three to 11 wins makes perfect sense.
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OFF THE CARPET: Game over, man
It’s not really a question anymore, is it?I submit that, quite possibly, it never was. Unfortunately, the shrieking in some quarters this year, under cover of “fighting the good fight,” has led to a mocking at the very notion that any film other than the critics’ champion could win the Oscar for Best Picture. It’s been unnecessarily nasty in that way.
At the end of the day, it really goes beyond critics vs. the Academy, though. It comes down to micro vs. macro, I think. The critics organizations are a bunch of tiny groups of people. Get 5,000, 6,000, 10,000 people together, the odds begin to favor “The King’s Speech.” It’s simply the film that survives the scrutiny of a broader spectrum of opinion. “Most generally agreeable.” It always was.
The unfortunate thing now — and if you’re watching, some are already doing an about face on their own positive opinion of Tom Hooper’s film — is that the fallout will be insufferable. Suddenly “The King’s Speech” will be a blight on Academy history and that talking point will be regurgitated ad nauseam. It already is. And that’s just sad, because it’s a very good film that doesn’t deserve to be taken to task in the wake of another film’s failed (and overstated) awards season expectations.
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OFF THE CARPET: Remember the movies (but maybe not these final predictions)
Two weeks ago, one of our readers, KevinK, asked the following question for Oscar Talk:What do you think of the atmosphere that comes out of this late stage of the awards season? I think the atmosphere is really toxic and really flies in the face of what we all care about in the first place: a love of film.
We didn’t get to it on the air. So I saved it. Then Thursday, Guy touched on some profound textures in his final pre-nod column. It was one of his best, a sound consideration of the posterity of an awards season above its pageantry.
The Yin and Yang of things is what struck me. To Kevin’s point, the environment around these films is more and more enhanced or diminished by steadily increasing media attention — this outlet being no exception. He went on to note a well-regarded critic’s perceived change of heart on one of last year’s front-running contenders due to its consistent registration during the season, as if a virginal opinion had been sullied by the air of competition and acclaim.
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OFF THE CARPET: Written in ink
I found it interesting over the weekend (and if you’re keyed into the ads on the site here and elsewhere, you noticed, too) that “The King’s Speech” finally decided to tap into the narrative that will serve it best in this year’s awards season.The “Find Your Voice” campaign notes, “Some movies you see. Others you feel.” The “head vs. heart” debate has been going on all season, dismissed largely by advocates up in arms at anyone having the gall to bet on a film other than “The Social Network” for this year’s Best Picture Oscar. Yet there are, by my count, 44 days left before final ballots are due to the Academy (because let’s face it, most of us are already living in phase two of this season).
But I wrote that column last week. Rather than re-state my position over and over again, I’ll just offer up the mantra: It’s a process.
Fincher’s film took down the National Society of Film Critics award Saturday (which is really, for the most part, just a replay of the NYFCC and LAFCA awards, given the overlap in membership). It just about ran the critics’ board. A few Best Picture bones were thrown to “The King’s Speech,” “Black Swan” and “Inception” throughout the circuit, but that’s about it. Bravo indeed.
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OFF THE CARPET: Counting chickens
The critics have had their say. “The Social Network” has enjoyed an impressive kudos haul throughout the month of December. Game over, call it, throw in the towel, all other comers need not apply, “there is only one.”That’s the instinct. But I embrace caution over haste (and I’m not on the advocacy bandwagon), so sue me if I’m just not there yet.
One of the more undercooked arguments I’ve read recently that places “The Social Network” in the Oscar frontrunner position is that you should call the race as it stands rather than forecast. Obviously that goes completely against what it means to prognosticate, but it also ignores the fact that what’s afoot isn’t always represented by what’s in the news, at least at this early stage.
Yes, the critics predictably went gaga over the film. But the #2 coming out of that circuit is probably “Black Swan.” So do we then assume the race for Oscar is between those two films? Of course not. Because, however overstated the point may be (by necessity, though, given stubbornness), critics don’t vote for Oscars.
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OFF THE CARPET: Macro/micro
I decided to update the Contenders section this week by addressing things (mostly) as they seem to stand in the wake of the critics’ awards circuit of the last two weeks. Save for this or that personal hunch (like buying into Guy’s shrewd proposition that the BAFTA contingent could help Lesley Manville over the hump, or keeping in mind, over all, that critics don’t vote for Oscars), I think it’s fairly representative.I don’t have a lot to offer in the way of a column this week. The race as it stands is how you see it. There are pockets of advocacy growing louder and louder out there, but I’m waiting for guilds to chime in and for studios to decide if they are in it to win it (and it becomes clearer and clearer who is and who isn’t, by the way).
Ballots will go out a week from today. Voters will have, presumably, spent the Thanksgiving and upcoming Christmas holidays digging into screeners and catching up on this or that. The precursors have illuminated a few paths they may not have taken (precious few, though), but mainly they’ve demanded viewings of 11 films in play for 10 Best Picture slots. What will the small screen do for these contenders?
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OFF THE CARPET: Time to flex
All of the cards (save for the elusive James L. Brooks title “How Do You Know,” which few seem to be expecting much from at this stage — a commodity in Oscar season, actually) are on the table.The critics are beginning to speak up with their faves (likely to be “The Social Network” after “The Social Network” after “The Social Network”) and the working (and voting) industry is just now getting its first look at many of the films that have been stirring conversation throughout the festival season via DVDs and Academy screenings. They’ll make their voices heard with guild nominations throughout January. But now is not the time to show weakness.
The thoroughbreds of the season remain “The King’s Speech” and the aforementioned “The Social Network.” I’m confidant “True Grit” will soon join their ranks, while “The Kids Are All Right” could be fairly considered in that group as well. And “Toy Story 3” is riding sentiment like a champ (with even more campaign strategy to come).
“The Town” is the only other film that I know has registered in a big way with Academy types (and it’s laid back campaign approach feels like the right call). “The Fighter” screened for AMPAS this weekend and is receiving media attention at just the right time. I think it will soon prove itself to be a formidable contender in the race, if it hasn’t already.
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OFF THE CARPET: Kicking the tires on the circuit
On the precipice of December, the season feels at once stale and fresh. We’re in the post-Thanksgiving food coma paradox that hits every year. But things are going to start heating up real soon.The last two films out of the gate, “TRON Legacy” and “True Grit” (both ironically starring Jeff Bridges), have already started screening. SAG ballots are already in the hands of nominating committee members and voting deadlines are approaching for various organizations.
The circuit “officially” begins Thursday with the always arbitrary National Board of Review announcement. The Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics Association will get a jump on the critics awards once again when they announce one week from today, while the Los Angeles (12/12) and New York online (12/12) and print (12/13) critics will have their say the following week, as well as the BFCA (12/13) and HFPA (12/14).
The excitement will build to the usual pre-holiday stall and pick right back up on January 4 when the writers and producers guilds announce nominees, followed the same week by the art directors and sound mixers. And the date most will have their eyes on — January 10 — will bring the DGA’s list of contenders. Before you know it we’ll be on a collision course with the January 25 Oscar nominations announcement and things will be mercifully nearing an end.
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OFF THE CARPET: Giving thanks
As we move into turkey (or tofurkey, if that happens to be your speed) week 2010, it seems proper, if a tad bit obvious, to take a moment and give thanks. So in lieu of a proper analysis of the season’s progression this week, allow me to express my boundless, breathless appreciation for the following:The filmmakers.
I’m thankful for Mike Leigh’s consistently maturing perspective on life and how he manages to gift that to film audiences each and every time out, for Peter Weir’s tenacity in the face of an unfortunate shift in cinema investment and for Darren Aronofsky’s well-rewarded (in the form of a two-year studio deal) efforts pushing the envelope.
I’m thankful for Danny Boyle’s energetic perspective on the cinema and his obsession with filling his frame with that passion, as well as for Christopher Nolan’s determination to take studio goodwill and prove that there is an audience and payoff for pricey originality.
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OFF THE CARPET: Dolla billz, y’all!
A reader comment got me thinking on box office and Oscar as the usual blockbuster and genre fare led the way in ticket sales this weekend. It dawned on me that pickins might be extra slim when it comes to representing populist filmmaking in 2010’s Best Picture crop.Box office and finding room for ratings-friendly titles have long been assumed considerations in the decision to expand the Best Picture category to 10 nominations last year. One year after Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight” nearly reached “Titanic”-level numbers and was snubbed of a Best Picture nomination, there were suddenly five more spots to be filled, widening the net.
Academy members had seven films to choose from the $100 million-plus club in 2009 that had any legitimate excuse for being in the conversation. They were: “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “The Hangover,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Star Trek” and “Up.” And some would consider “The Hangover” and “Star Trek” to be a stretch. As such, they missed, and the other five made it.
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OFF THE CARPET: Leading men in the spotlight
About a year ago I took to examining the 2009 Best Actor race. The frontrunners for five slots seemed to be, in order, George Clooney, Colin Firth, Jeremy Renner, Morgan Freeman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Viggo Mortensen and Robert De Niro.A day later press members received their first invites to “Crazy Heart” screenings and were notified that the film would be released in 2009. Jeff Bridges hit the ground running and never let off the gas until he was past the finish line.
A year earlier we were looking at a pair of politico-biopic portrayals, either one of which would make a handsome winner: Frank Langella and Sean Penn. But we were fairly sure the latter would be on his way to the podium one more time.
But soon after, Mickey Rourke’s festival buzz caught serious fire and forged an atmosphere of doubt. The season’s narrative seemed to be changing, and yet the early buzz carried through and brought Penn his Oscar.
So that’s two drastically different directions – in as many years – that a lead actor race can take. Given the mid-October fulcrum shared here, let’s consider our perspective on the Best Actor category right now.