124 responses so far

• 1 11-07-2009 at 1:22 pm
  
  Vito said...

  As of right now, I say Precious has the greatest chance. The performances from everyone are pretty staggering, and it seems to play to the Academy’s strengths more than anything else I’ve seen so far. However, I think that Nine and Invictus are the major challengers to Precious.

• 2 11-07-2009 at 1:24 pm
  
  Zizo Abul Hawa said...

  Precious. Because eveybody (aside from Guy) loves it.

• 3 11-07-2009 at 1:27 pm
  
  Chad Hartigan said...

  Don’t know.

• 4 11-07-2009 at 1:31 pm
  
  tintin said...

  Precious, lovely bones, invictus and nine…

• 5 11-07-2009 at 1:31 pm
  
  Guy Lodge said...

  “Precious.” Because I’ve liked the last three BP winners and it can’t continue.

  And because it feels “important” but not high-minded.

• 6 11-07-2009 at 1:33 pm
  
  Jim T said...

  I keep forgetting The Lovely Bones even if it is my most anticipated film of the year. I’ll keep it out of predictions.

  Precious. It will make them cry and vote.

• 7 11-07-2009 at 1:38 pm
  
  Anonymous said...

  Up in the Air, kinda by default. Because in my opinion:

  Invictus’s mix of politics and sports is gonna be too slow and boring…and Clint is coming off what many consider to be two of his weaker efforts.

  Nine is going to remind people too much of Chicago, which is still a fairly recent winner, and one that has kind of earned a backlash since its win…a backlash that only strengthened when Rob Marshall proved he can’t back up the razzle dazzle with real story in Memoirs of a Geisha

  Precious is already getting a backlash for seeming too calculated (”depress the hell out of the audience by throwing every possible obstacle at the protagonist” syndrome). And insiders already seem annoyed with the people behind the film (Mariah Carey forself-aggrandizing her “ugliness,” Lee Daniels being not being humble enough, Mo’Nique for being a diva…and the “Tyler Perry” stamp might be golden for the boxoffice, but it’s poison for the Academy).

  Also, in Up in the Air’s defense, it seems like it could not be a more timely film (coinciding with the economic downturn and all), so audiences will likely connect with it more than with a rugby player, a womanizing director, or an abused 300 pound black girl…and let’s face it, we all want to be George Clooney…

• 8 11-07-2009 at 1:49 pm
  
  tim said...

  Up in the Air. Just cuz.

• 9 11-07-2009 at 1:53 pm
  
  geha714 said...

  The ten nominees experiment makes the category more difficult.

  Right now I’ll think Up in the Air, Precious and Invictus as the only locks. For the other seven, the race is wide open.

  I’m personally rooting for Up and The Hurt Locker to get two of the slots.

  Let’s see in December… Right now it’s too early.

• 10 11-07-2009 at 1:56 pm
  
  crazycris said...

  Up.
  Just to make things interesting. ;)

• 11 11-07-2009 at 1:58 pm
  
  James D. said...

  An Education.

• 12 11-07-2009 at 2:01 pm
  
  André said...

  I’m gonna go Werner Herzog for a second here and say that if “Up” wins the Oscar for Best Picture I will eat my shoe. with a huge smile on my face.

• 13 11-07-2009 at 2:05 pm
  
  Me. said...

  The frontrunner is “Precious”.

  The Oscars have been honoring darker, more brutal films in the last few years (”No Country for Old Men”, “The Departed”) as well as independent films (”Slumdog Millionaire”, “Milk”). “Precious” has both of these factors on its side.

  The fact that it’s the only film to have ever won the Grand Jury prize at the Sundance film festival and the Audience Award at the Toronto film festival only makes it look stronger.

  It’s also getting solid reviews as of now and Roger Ebert is backing it up.

  Oprah Winfrey and the rest of the cast and crew are making a huge campaign for the film.

  I really really don’t want “Precious” to win Best Picture. I have liked all the Best Picture winners of this decade and I don’t want “Precious” to ruin it. I’m a realist and I’m predicting it but if there’s a chance of stopping it, I’m really counting on Peter Jackson and “The Lovely Bones” to a be a stunning film (and the trailer delivers).

• 14 11-07-2009 at 2:09 pm
  
  Matt T said...

  Either The Lovely Bones or Up in the Air.

  If The Lovely Bones is as great as I think want it to be, then it will win. If not, then Up in the Air will win.

  Precious will turn too many people off, and Invictus and Nine don’t seem as personal as what a winner should probably be.

• 15 11-07-2009 at 2:11 pm
  
  Corey said...

  RE: Me

  You think that Precious would ruin the string of Best Picture winners of this decade? are you aware of the BP winners of 01 & 05? I hardly think that if Precious won it would ruin anything.

• 16 11-07-2009 at 2:19 pm
  
  "Julianstark" said...

  Precious – tons of momentum for the film AND heart/emotional factor. May not be the biggest hit at the critics awards but should really do well with guild-level awards.

• 17 11-07-2009 at 2:22 pm
  
  Chase K. said...

  Whatever has the most backlash…

• 18 11-07-2009 at 2:23 pm
  
  Cal said...

  Up in the Air or An Education.

  There aren’t many winners that aren’t middle-of-the-road and the change in rules plays to that way of thinking as well.

• 19 11-07-2009 at 2:26 pm
  
  Alex in Movieland said...

  NINE
  - because it has a lot of stars.
  - because the people from the technical branches are voting for it.
  - because IT CANNOT BE A FAILURE :P even Memoirs of a Geisha had its fans.
  - because there will be major SPLIT VOTE between the dramas, so nothing controversial for the win.

  Can you please stop with PRECIOUS winning??? Is Tony Curtis voting for Precious to win? Is Jerry-the-sound-guy (whoever he is) voting for Precious??? come on… Crash had some manly stuff going on, which reached a wider audience. At least Nine has hot chicks. [in jerry's opinion]

• 20 11-07-2009 at 2:27 pm
  
  JP said...

  The way the Academy members vote changed in the past few years. If they make a choice in the same line of these past 5 years, the winner will be Up in the Air.
  If they opt for a Hollywoodian film, something they don’t do since The Lord of the Rings, I’d say the winner will be either The Lovely Bones or Nine.

• 21 11-07-2009 at 2:32 pm
  
  Nigel Bridgeman said...

  I’m not getting a Best Picture vibe from any of the supposed front-runners this year. I honestly don’t know what will win – something tells me it will be a roll of the d6 (rather than a flip of the coin) next year with a bunch of possibilities.

  That said, I’m confident it won’t be Precious, Nine or Invictus. No, I can’t offer anything to back up this opinion.

• 22 11-07-2009 at 2:38 pm
  
  Me. said...

  At Corey

  I LOVED “A Beautiful Mind”! It’s such an amazing film! Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly gives astounding performances. The whole concept of schizophrenia was incredibly well portrayed on screen.

  I also really liked “Crash”. It’s a vibrant, resounding film, with two unforgettable scenes.

• 23 11-07-2009 at 2:38 pm
  
  Bob McBob said...

  “Up”; because it’s the best film of the year, and since Pixar is finally allowed to compete with live-action films, it will easily win against the meager opposition this year.

• 24 11-07-2009 at 2:41 pm
  
  al b. said...

  Avatar

  yes I said it and I’ll say it again… Avatar

  Perhaps this is just wishful thinking, but I don’t think the Academy can ignore the big movies for too long! Sure Crash and No Country and Slumdog were small fare, but it’s about time AMPAS voted on the big studio movies, especially after they snubbed Dark Knight!

  That is a brief explanation as to why Avatar will win the Academy Award for Best Picture of 2009!

• 25 11-07-2009 at 2:43 pm
  
  Bryan said...

  Invictus – Clint, Freeman, biopic: been there, done that.

  Nine – Dancing babes – been there, done that.

  Up in the Air – Clooney-lite. Didn’t we just give him an oscar?

  Precious – big black girl with a sucky life. Have we done this? I don’t think we’ve done this. Let’s do it.

• 26 11-07-2009 at 2:52 pm
  
  Silencio said...

  So far I’d say Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker. I think Precious could *just* miss it.

• 27 11-07-2009 at 2:54 pm
  
  rickets said...

  Up in the Air. Reasoning:
  (1) It will turn out to be the true critics darling, come year’s end.
  (2) Absolutely no controversy surrounding the film (as detractors of Precious are now instigating)
  (3) In keeping with the winners of recent years, it is a ’smaller film’, but and has the most beloved movie star of the decade as its heart (playing a close-to-persona character, at that)
  (4) Timely subject matter that will allow voters to feel like they are still making ‘an important’
  (5) Box office will be respectable and place it in the middle tier of the 10 movies nominated (a statistic that bodes well for the win!)

• 28 11-07-2009 at 2:54 pm
  
  Me. said...

  Although if Penélope, Nicole, Kate and Marion turn the voters on the way they turned me on in that trailer, “Nine” could win.

• 29 11-07-2009 at 2:58 pm
  
  Hero said...

  I really liked Anon’s reasoning for Up in the Air. I think I’ll go with that for now.

• 30 11-07-2009 at 2:59 pm
  
  Henry said...

  Invictus has a more epic feel and broader marketability and I’m predicting that means it will do better with the ranked voting system.

  There’s also something of an Obama inspirational globalism/multiculturalism factor that’s awkward to explain but very real when you’re talking about Hollywood voters.

  Precious is a plausible alternative, and it benefits from a recession era optimism. My only knock is that it’s a smaller budget character study with less romance and whimsy than Slumdog.

• 31 11-07-2009 at 3:05 pm
  
  Marshall said...

  “Up in the Air.” It has been a hard year for a lot of people, and I think they will connect to this movie because it addresses their problems but replaces much of the gravity with a touch of levity.

• 32 11-07-2009 at 3:05 pm
  
  Me. said...

  I still don’t get how “Precious” inspired optimism.

• 33 11-07-2009 at 3:07 pm
  
  Reuben said...

  Up In the Air. It stars Clooney, it’s very well acted, written and directed and plus it comes at a perfect time. It’ll resonate with a lot of people – It’s going to be a huge hit.

  alt. The Hurt Locker (which will win Director) because it’s the most riveting and intense experience of the year. It puts a face on Iraq.

• 34 11-07-2009 at 3:08 pm
  
  Aaron said...

  I agree that Precious will NOT win. The stars of the film are being obnoxious, there’s too big of a campaign push for the film, and unlike Slumdog Millionaire (whose buzz started building out of Toronto), Precious’s has been going full throttle the whole year…so I think by the time the Oscars happen, there will be a major Precious overkill.

• 35 11-07-2009 at 3:08 pm
  
  voland said...

  The Lovely Bones

• 36 11-07-2009 at 3:13 pm
  
  Alex C. said...

  ‘Precious’ because you can’t stop the fucking machine.

• 37 11-07-2009 at 3:13 pm
  
  KB said...

  “Precious” because we haven’t seen anything else yet…

• 38 11-07-2009 at 3:18 pm
  
  Morgan said...

  I wonder if “Agora” is going to become the last-minute Best Picture spoiler a la Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”… now that Sony is looking to release it in the U.S. after its performance overseas…

  http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118010988.html?categoryid=3800&cs=1&nid=2564

• 39 11-07-2009 at 3:20 pm
  
  RyanT said...

  Up.

  The old geezers that make up the Academy will see themselves in Carl while the children of lazy voters will go for it because it’s “their” type of film.

• 40 11-07-2009 at 3:25 pm
  
  Loyal said...

  Avatar will win*

  I’ll try to be as scientific as possible here:

  Nine probably wont win because Chicago won this decade. It’s going to play as Chicago-lite. And let’s face it, the songbook doesnt pop as loudly as Chicago’s

  Invictus probably won’t win because of Eastwood’s success this decade. It would need to be a masterpiece, which seems somewhat unlikely.

  The Lovely Bones probably doesnt have enough excitement to win. Not as in its narrative but the buzz surrounding the film, the whys of it all, why should we (they) award PJ again?

  Up, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Bright Star, A Serious Man, A Single Man, The Hurt Locker, their nominations are the reward.

  I don’t think Precious will make enough money to win. Yes yes, I know it did really well this weekend. But that was pretty much guaranteed (LA/NY/ATL/CHI). It would need to be one of the top grossing BP nominees of the year to win. It needs a mandate to win, outside of being a black film and a brutal and grotesque look at a side of life few see.

  That leaves two films.

  Avatar, if it makes over $300m by mid-January, has 85+% fresh on RT and equal success on MC, and is nominated for PGA/DGA, I feel will win.

  If any of the above doesn’t happen, I think the win goes to Up in the Air. The film will probably be one of the highest grossing films “in contention” AND it’s a dramedy, which would create a nice narrative of not another sad little film winning BP. “The change to 10 Best Picture nominees worked” they will say.

• 41 11-07-2009 at 3:28 pm
  
  Peter M. said...

  Paranormal Activity

• 42 11-07-2009 at 3:28 pm
  
  The Dude said...

  “9″

  No, not “Nine.” “9.” Because the Academy is gonna get confused…

• 43 11-07-2009 at 3:33 pm
  
  Me. said...

  LMAO at The Dude.

• 44 11-07-2009 at 3:36 pm
  
  Cameron said...

  Up in the Air. Reitman’s rising swiftly in the Hollywood ranks, the film resonates perfectly with the zeitgeist, and it has George-frickin’-Clooney in it. If not that, then probably Precious.

  Of course, if it were up to me, I’d go with A Serious Man, with Where the Wild Things Are for Best Director.

• 45 11-07-2009 at 3:37 pm
  
  MouseRat said...

  Lovely Bones has a good mix of things that could be appealling to voters….unique narrative, wowing imagery, emotionally gut-wrenching story and an uplifting message.

• 46 11-07-2009 at 3:44 pm
  
  Jake D said...

  Up in the Air’s themes are timely, it’s got two people the Academy has certainly approved of in the past (Clooney and Reitman). Precious is going to get a lot of 7’s and 8’s from the people who couldn’t quite stomach it, and Up in the Air (which a lot of people might view as the #2 or #3 right now) won’t suffer from that kind of voting. Even those who don’t love it will put it fairly high on the list.

  Precious is just too hard of an R, methinks.

• 47 11-07-2009 at 3:44 pm
  
  Alex said...

  Up in the Air – seems to have everything going for it but depends on how it opens.

  Up – made me cry.

• 48 11-07-2009 at 3:46 pm
  
  Al said...

  Up In the Air – no, too modern for academy, almost generic

  Nine- best shot, if it is indeed reminiscent of 8 1/2 while still being its own thing.

  Precious – good shot, although possibly for the wrong reasons.

  Invictus – on the fence with this one, Clints movies are either front runners or left on the back burner.

  Avatar – has a slim chance, I personally both feel and hope the academy agrees that the story is not only generic, but suffocated by the tech.

  Hurt Locker – no, all the insane buzz took place more than half a year before the awards.

• 49 11-07-2009 at 3:48 pm
  
  The Other James D. said...

  “The Hurt Locker” will surprise many by taken a potential heap of the critics awards, and being the first war film (and a current one, at that) in many years to win the big prize. When voters see/saw it, many [will] feel/felt passionate about it. Plus, with Kathryn Bigelow being a prime contender, they might see it fit to match up BP and BD.

  However, if they want to split and give Bigelow the award, then BP will likely go to “Up in the Air”. After all, with no split since ‘05, it’s almost like we’re due, no?

• 50 11-07-2009 at 3:48 pm
  
  The Other James D. said...

  Taking*.

• 51 11-07-2009 at 3:49 pm
  
  SHAAAARK said...

  The Hurt Locker, contingent on getting a good campaign from Summit. If not, Up in the Air, which seems zeitgeisty, and will sit back and let Precious get backlashed.

• 52 11-07-2009 at 4:06 pm
  
  A.J said...

  I really want to say Precious because it’s the feel good yet depressing film. I also really want to say Invictus because they need to make up for snubbing Hotel Rwanda. However I’m going to say Avatar. Why? The new voting system.

• 53 11-07-2009 at 4:07 pm
  
  aspect ratio said...

  Going by the de-facto “rule” that a Best Picture winner takes home at least four Oscars in total (Crash being the sole exception in the past 20 years with three wins), that certainly narrows things down a bit, although without any precursors it’s tough to say at the moment in certain key categories, like directing and writing.

  Certainly one thing in favor of The Hurt Locker is that it’s easy to see it being nominated for Editing and Sound categories, it could reach the Magic Four mark with Picture, Director, Film Editing and Sound Mixing, for example without having to dominate the top categories.

  Precious by comparison would have to win something like Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay to reach the Magic Four, a far more tall order (though hardly unimaginable).

  Up in the Air feels like it could struggle to win four; Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay could surely happen if it’s heading to a Best Picture win, but can Clooney overtake Bridges and Firth, or Farmiga/Kendrick overtake Monique (and each other)? Film Editing? Tough to say..

  But of course, there’s no real rule to say a film this year will need to take home four Oscars total to be the Best Picture. I can certainly imagine Precious being a film that could win the top prize without enormous support elsewhere, a la Crash.

  So I’m guessing that’s my pick for now, Precious for Best Picture in a BP/BD split with Kathryn Bigelow taking home Best Director.

• 54 11-07-2009 at 4:08 pm
  
  Tom Shone said...

  Precious. Up In The Air is going to hit the same wall that Duplicity did in the spring.

• 55 11-07-2009 at 4:08 pm
  
  JFK said...

  From what I have been reading, I think it will be between Up in the Air and Precious. I think The Hurt Locker and An Education deserve noms and Avatar may round out five.

  It would be excellent to include A Single Man, but I don’t see that happening just yet.

  If A Serious Man is nominated I will not be happy.

• 56 11-07-2009 at 4:11 pm
  
  Rob Cameron said...

  Up in the Air largely because, as a previous poster said, the other selections don’t seem very likely.
  I sincerely doubt that Precious will win. It could, but there’s already a sense of discontent amongst several groups who find the film overpraised. Invictus could be a possibility, but I don’t think they’ll be itching to award an Eastwood film when it’s already been expressed how much they value his work this decade. Nine will certainly remind people too much of Chicago, and I don’t think they’ll want to award a film when it’s basically a repeat of a previous triumph (although I expect it to be superb and dazzling nonetheless).
  An unexpected knockout could be The Lovely Bones, which is interesting since it was considered a frontrunner early this year. But people seem skeptical of its success now. I, however, have not seen anything that should suggest that it can’t turn out a wonderful and emotional experience though and it could very well click with both audiences and the Academy.
  Up in the Air, however, already has universal praise (seems unlikely that that will change by the time of full release). It also may be the most timely film imaginable in our economically troubled times. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, it apparently does strike a huge emotional chord with viewers. And having the classiest male star in the world as the face of the film and a couldn’t-be-more-likable director who represents a younger generation of filmmakers behind it certainly doesn’t hurt the film’s appeal.

• 57 11-07-2009 at 4:22 pm
  
  Michael said...

  The last year that I agreed with the academy’s decision for best picture was in 2003 with LOTR:ROtK, so I know whatever I think is actually best will not be what they think anyway. Just going on what everyone is saying I will probably have to say Precious, however I still have not seen it yet and would prefer to really pass judgment on it once I have seen it. It just seems like a film that has been developing a following for a long time that is really speaking to a lot of people, and not in a safe and predictable way (although this is just from critical praise and not from actual viewing the movie.) From the other possible contenders I feel like Nine is just too insignificant of a story, Avatar looks like a video game, Invictus is a little bit too safe, and The Lovely Bones looks a little too insistent. I have yet to see Up in the Air, but that is the only other movie that I think from what I’ve heard and read would be a timely and worthy film to win.

• 58 11-07-2009 at 4:27 pm
  
  Mike said...

  Precious. Because I’m pessimistic.

  And because , well, it’s the Academy machine, folks. It seems that ever since the Crash debacle they’ve decided to just roll with the season and vote for whatever film wins everything leading up the Oscars so they don’ t get any more faux-controversy about voting for the film that isn’t destined to win (please note that I am most certainly NOT saying that Crash SHOULD have won). And Precious is absolutely destined to win. The machine started rolling in January, for God’s sake.

• 59 11-07-2009 at 4:33 pm
  
  The Other James D. said...

  @Aspect_ratio: Some very valid points regarding the at-least-4-wins rule. I was surprised that you forgot to consider “The Hurt Locker” for Best Original Screenplay though. Mark Boal is definitely a prime contender in that category and could win. That category, in fact, is so empty and void of heavyweights really.

• 60 11-07-2009 at 4:45 pm
  
  /3rtfu11 said...

  “I still don’t get how “Precious” inspired optimism.”

  She learns her way out of illiteracy. Learns that Homos aren’t bad people – she has a desire to be a mother to her children that her mother never was to her.

• 61 11-07-2009 at 4:47 pm
  
  Dan said...

  Too early to call.

• 62 11-07-2009 at 5:12 pm
  
  De'Garryan said...

  PRECIOUS!!!! BECAUSE IT’S A GREAT FILM!!!!

• 63 11-07-2009 at 5:15 pm
  
  Nasp said...

  In my opinion, it’s between Nine and The Lovely Bones. Both have great cast, crew and plot.

  But I’d really like to see Inglorious Basterds taking it, and Tarantino as the best director.

  An Education would be a great surprise. And, my God, if A Single Man could get it, it’d be awesome!

  For me, Precious or Up in the Air would be really disappointing, specially the first one.

  My favorites ones are: The Lovely Bones, Nine, Inglorious Basterds, An Education and A Single Man.

• 64 11-07-2009 at 5:25 pm
  
  Darbicus said...

  At this point…I’d probably say that The Hurt Locker has an inside track to a win…given that it feels like Oscar is ready to reward a socially important movie.

  Though my feelings on this could cahnge drastically from day to day…so take it for what its worth.

• 65 11-07-2009 at 5:25 pm
  
  Derek 8-Track said...

  of all the side bar predictions, ‘Up’ is the only one I’ve seen and it wont win.

  I hope ‘Avatar’ wins!

  I think “Up In The Air” might win because even though we’ve had many nominees of this kind, a “Juno/Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation” type movie hasn’t won yet.

  Precious will probably win because it’s Indie, powerful, and a Black movie hasn’t won since ‘67 (if we can even call that a black movie). Plus Obama is President.

• 66 11-07-2009 at 5:27 pm
  
  Nasp said...

  Since I don’t believe Peter Jackson, Coen Brothers or Clint Eastwood will receive another oscar for directing so soon, this category is very interesting.

  Rob Marshall, for me, is the favorite, because he hasn’t been awarded when Chicago won BP, and he’s directing a wonderful cast, a very beautiful and glamurous musical.

  Tarantino would be a great choice too. Jason Reitman is an option to seriously consider.

  Lee Daniels, Lone Scherfig, Kathryn Bigelow are a bit too unknown.

  The Best Director category will be so exciting, specially because it’ll, theorically, show the real 5 best pictures contenders.

• 67 11-07-2009 at 5:30 pm
  
  aspect ratio said...

  Other James D,

  It’s certainly a contender for Original Screenplay, I just wanted to highlight that unlike several of the other BP contenders, it has realistic chances in tech categories to bring it to at least 4 wins.. certainly not saying it can’t take original screenplay as well if it goes all the way to a BP win.

• 68 11-07-2009 at 5:41 pm
  
  Rogers said...

  The Hurt Locker…

  Other films:
  Precious is falling over itself to get to the gold.
  Up in the Air is not heavy enough.
  Nine is Chicago, already been there.
  Invictus is Eastwood, already been there.
  Lovely Bones doesn’t look right.
  A Serious Man is too good.
  Avatar is sci fi, they don’t want Cameron again.
  A strong British block vote for An Education will get it very close.

  Why Hurt Locker?
  Industry is frustrated they haven’t produced a good critique of the Iraq War, they want this.
  This is Precious Lite in regards to political/social awareness, academy likes the lite choices.
  Obama.
  Academy want to show they are being progressive by awarding female director.

  The major problem is that it didn’t make enough money, and I don’t personally love the film. An Education and Precious are main competition.

• 69 11-07-2009 at 5:52 pm
  
  Al said...

  I hate when people, like Mr. 64 route for a film that they haven’t seen yet. Despicable. Now then, it is true that people are predicting which films may win, but thats fine. Also, some do say they route for Hurt Locker, or Precious, etc….but those films were released already, and people have actually seen them.

• 70 11-07-2009 at 5:54 pm
  
  James D. said...

  I think “Up In The Air” might win because even though we’ve had many nominees of this kind, a “Juno/Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation” type movie hasn’t won yet.

  Do we have to compare the worst movie of Juno to those great films? It makes me feel ill inside.

• 71 11-07-2009 at 5:57 pm
  
  Derek 8-Track said...

  I agree with you Al, but all I have right now are trailer and Up, and based on trailers, I want Avatar to win because it looks rockin’. The rest are just predictions.

• 72 11-07-2009 at 5:59 pm
  
  Derek 8-Track said...

  I agree James. I hate Juno! with a white hot intensity of a thousand suns. but you gotta admit, people group those movies together. I know people who wanted all those movies to win best picture. their tastes are drawn to those movies. they’re just easily grouped together.

• 73 11-07-2009 at 6:05 pm
  
  Leone said...

  Up In The Air – because it’s not only an accessible and universal film but it has the meaning that makes Oscar voters feel good. It is the defining film of this year with its subject matter and its humanity. Even though it tackles a difficult and top-of-mind topic (unemployment), it is ultimately a film about reinventing oneself. It’s a personal movie that makes you think about yourself, all truly great art does that.

• 74 11-07-2009 at 6:24 pm
  
  Mr. Harmonica said...

  Up in the Air.

  The genuine zeitgeist.

• 75 11-07-2009 at 6:24 pm
  
  Finwë said...

  Avatar.

  Because Avatar.

• 76 11-07-2009 at 6:31 pm
  
  Chris138 said...

  I’ll probably get shit for this and am in the minority… but I hope whatever wins isn’t “A Serious Man”

  Otherwise, it’s too early to call.

• 77 11-07-2009 at 6:46 pm
  
  Matt said...

  Because the award is not actually about awarding the best, but about hype and momentum, I’m going to see these are the films that have a chance:

  Up in the Air
  Precious
  A Serious Man
  Avatar

  Different types of films, one of the may be the best of the year and I don’t know because I haven’t seen them, but these are the only ones that seem to have the backing and politics to pull off a win at the moment.

• 78 11-07-2009 at 7:26 pm
  
  Ally said...

  It’s going to be Nine. I can feel it. I don’t quite get why people think otherwise.

  It has the most “Best Picturesque” vibe to it:
  - Pretty colors.
  - Pretty sets.
  - Big name stars who are for the most part respectable and are previous (& RECENT) Oscar winners (who are also all pretty)
  - Based on a Tony Award winning musical, which was based on a classic Oscar winning movie.
  - It’s a musical, and the Academy seems to want people to think they like musicals (the Hugh Jackman/Beyonce musical montage anyone? “The Musical is Back”)
  - And to top it off, Harvey Weinstein is the movie’s producer and pimp.

  The logic is all there. Nine has a very good chance at winning unless it ends up sucking really really bad.

  I suppose some of these factors can be said for The Lovely Bones. But if people are going to talk about how Nine reminds them of Chicago, then I’d like to say that The Lovely Bones reminds me of LOTR. (In terms of a non-fiction book aspect)

• 79 11-07-2009 at 7:49 pm
  
  Dylan said...

  The Academy loves giving pity Oscars to people/groups they have snubbed before (Kate Winslet, Scorsese, Arkin, etc.), so I’m wondering when they’ll ever repay the gay community for the Brokeback Mountain/Crash fiasco. I thought Milk would be the one, but that didn’t happen….is there a possibility A Single Man will be the one?

• 80 11-07-2009 at 8:03 pm
  
  JAB said...

  Precious
  because of Obama, Oprah, and Tyler Perry.

• 81 11-07-2009 at 8:18 pm
  
  Leone said...

  While I think Precious is a very good film, I’m not feeling a win here and it’s intriguing to me that many do. Precious, is — at best — a really good, well acted film. At worst, it’s been overhyped, it’s difficult to watch and it’s a singular story about a very specific girl living in a very specific world. I just don’t think it it’s relatable enough to win an Oscar for best picture. I also think that the behavior of the director and Monique don’t help them and I further think that the Oprah/Tyler Perry train is a little over the top. Last but not least, it’s a film I NEVER want to watch again. Ever. Maybe that doesn’t take anything away from it’s value, but to me, it does — at least a little. I’m sorry to say. It’s disturbing and depressing. That said, Gabourey Sadibe is getting nominated and so is the film. And after seeing Gabourey on “Ellen”, I’ll be happy to see that. She’s absolutely charming.

• 82 11-07-2009 at 8:49 pm
  
  Matthew Starr said...

  It would be pretty awesome to see The Hurt Locker come back after being out of theatres for so long and win this.

  I finally saw An Education today. Very good movie but I still like Locker and Serious Man more. I have Education and Precious ranked slightly below those two.

  The best news is that we don’t know yet. I feel like the last three years it was so obvious what film would win. Finally we might have a year where it could still be up for grabs on awards night.

• 83 11-07-2009 at 9:23 pm
  
  Armando said...

  A Single Man.

• 84 11-07-2009 at 9:33 pm
  
  Glenn said...

  Nine because the other “frontrunners” have big ticks against them and until Nine is out we don’t know what its cons are. However, Bigelow will take Best Director.

• 85 11-07-2009 at 9:54 pm
  
  Robin said...

  I’m saying Up in the Air. It fits into the recent academy trend of films which didnt feel designed for Oscar from the get go, but which people “discover”, fall in love with, and then vote for. At the same time it is genuinely appealing to voters as it’s a hollywood production staring Clooney, directed by Reitman, mixing laughs and drama, capturing a contemporary mindset and entertaining at the same time. I’m sure it’ll make a lot of cash, and reviews are no problem already.

  I’m still not sold on Precious. It’s focus seems low-key and quite narrow for a winner, as well as being quite a difficult watch. Opinion is somewhat divided already on it, and it’s been flogged to death already and the season hasn’t even officially started yet. It’ll need to strong BO to continue to carry it through the season, and I’m really not getting the impression the older, conservative white male voters will eat this one up.

  Nine? Been there, done that.

  Invictus? Token biopic nominee and shoutout to their darling Eastwood, but will need to be something incredibly special to generate passion for a win.

• 86 11-07-2009 at 11:40 pm
  
  Holden said...

  I think it will be a close race, and here is why.

  The Hurt Locker – While an Iraq piece, the academy is notoriously a sucker for war films (Wings, All Quiet on the Western Front, Casablanca, Bridge on the River Kwai, Lawrence of Arabia, Patton, The Deer Hunter, Platoon, Saving Private Ryan, Born of the Fourth of July, Coning Home, Black Hawk Down, etc.) Many films discredit Iraq films because of their lack of nominations. That is because they mostly suck (with the exception of In the Valley of Elah.) It’s a safe bet it will take Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. It will also gain credit in the sound categories, and maybe an acting nomination for Renner and Mackie. It’s in a solid position to win. The only flaw is that it may be a tad forgotten. Hopefully it will run a good campaign, and will remind everyone of itself.

  The Lovely Bones – Peter Jackson is a solid director/writer, and if this film gets good enough reviews, you can bet that it will get a few nominations. It’s a shoo in for Tucci, and Adapted Screenplay at the very least. Nominations will also be in order for Director, Editing, Cinematography, Score, and Art Direction. It may even garner noms in Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and a pair of Supporting Actress nominations. It only needs to get good reviews and it will most likely be nominated. We can only wait.

  Nine – On paper, it seems like the obvious front runner. It has a cornucopia of stars, it’s a musical, a period piece, etc. It’s by the director of Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha, both of which won multiple Oscars. The only thing holding it back is that even if it does well with the critics, it’s not particularly strong in any category. It would lose to Avatar or Up in the Sound Categories, Supporting Actress has gone to Mo’Nique, Adapted Screenplay would go to The Lovely Bones, Lead Actor is most likely to go to Freeman or Firth, Original Song is up in the air (I’m not trying to say it will go in the film Up in the Air, just that it’s undecided), the only categories it will likely win in are Art Direction and Costume Design, neither of which really are enough for a Best Picture.

  Invictus – It has a good chance in Lead Actor, but nothing else. The only thing that makes myself worry is that it might turn out like Changeling. It has a lot high expectations very early on, and there is a very real possibility of failing with the critics. If it does well there, then I’m sure it will get a bunch of major noms. If it is inspirational and a masterpiece, it’ll win.

  Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire – I haven’t seen it, but if it has a triumph ending, then it will be this years Slumdog Millionaire. It’s got the reviews, the buzz, it’s building some precursor attention, and will surely be nominated, but it has to be happy enough to win.

  Up – Arguably the best animated film in the last few years, and this year it will be in the best position to be nominated. It’s got the critics, the support, the box office, etc. It’s got a lot against it though; early release, its own category, not live action, limited categories. Even if it will be nominated, I don’t see it winning.

  Up in the Air – Jason Rietman has not put out a bad film. Not only that, his two films (Thank You For Smoking, Juno) were both comedy gems. I’m not sure what genre this movie falls under yet, but it will more than likely be good. It has early word from Toronto, and the word is good. Clooney is a generally good actor, two supporting actresses both with potential to be nominated. It’s likely to be nominated for its Director and Screenplay. Though it looks like it will be a stellar picture, it’s lacking strength in all of its categories (the same dilemma facing Nine.) It has a predicament I like to call the “Shawshank Problem.” I believe that the film The Shawshank Redemption was the best picture of 1994, but it though each category it was in was not good enough to win against all the other films it lost to. Many will argue that Grand Hotel, and Mutiny on the Bounty was able to win Best Picture without winning anything else. Though not a film since then has won the top prize without winning at least one other award. But if the film is good enough, it will be nominated, and may win.

  An Education – It has decent reviews, and good buzz. Though I think it will win Best Actress, get another two nominations for its screenplay and supporting actor (hopefully for Sarsgaurd instead of Molina.) No chance it will win.

  Avatar – James Cameron has never made a bad film. Even Titanic, one of my least favorite films of all time has a decent amount of merit. It has a good chance of taking home a lot of technical awards (Film Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing.) It will probably be nominated for its Score, and Art Direction. It may get nominated for Direction and Picture. It may be the first science fiction film to win. But that’s the problem; it’s a science fiction film, and very few ever get nominated, let alone win.

  Inglorious Basterds – The dark horse of this race. It has everything to make it a nominee; Direction, Acting, Screenplay, Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, etc. It’s got the box office, the reviews, the following, the first time in fifteen years that Quentin Tarantino will get nominated for anything. It will probably not win, but a nomination is possible.

  A Serious Man – The Coen Brothers are undoubtedly the most original, and some of the greatest most revolutionary filmmakers of all time. If you look at their films from the past, the majority of them are comedies (Fargo, The Big Lebowski, Raising Arizona, O Brother Where Art Thou?, Burn After Reading, etc.) Even if they won three Oscars (not accounting for Javier Bardem) for No Country for Old Men, which was still pretty funny. They just don’t have enough support in their categories. They have Screenplay, and maybe Lead Actor and Cinematography. Not really a lot for it. Best Picture nomination? Maybe. Win? No.

  The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – This is my own wish. Terry Gillian has always done solid work (Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Brazil, 12 Monkeys.) Even if it’s not an ideal nominee, it would be the coolest thing to see Gillan, the late Heath Legder, and the film as a whole get nominations. I would like to see that.

  So, after all this dissection, which film is in the best position to take home the top prize? I’m going to put my money on The Hurt Locker. It has a lot for it, and it would be cool to see a fast paced war film take home the prize.

• 87 11-08-2009 at 12:04 am
  
  Jester said...

  For those saying that they believe Precious is going to win have obviously not seen the film. Th reason it’s not going to win has nothing to do with it’s difficult subject matter, rather it’s over all quality. Simply stated: it’s not very good. Guy is right on (and I’ve been sensing in some of Kris’ recent posts and comments that perhaps he might regret the full four stars?). The voters might be taken for a day or so, but after that it will gracefully leave there minds, while films of substance like A Serious Man will stick around long after the lights go up.

• 88 11-08-2009 at 12:34 am
  
  Raffi said...

  After seeing Precious, I think it has a shot but won’t be the eventual runner.

  Remember, selecting the winner is now gonna be based on a ranked passion vote.

  Up in the air is playing the buzz game very well. It has alot of built up but not released buzz and it’s going to capitalize on it starting in a month when more people start talking about the movie.

  Other than that, I think of-the-one-no-one-has-seen, The Lovely Bones and Nine have the best chance of racking up the passion index vote. Invictus and Avatar are not gonna win over enough #1s to raise their tally.

  Based on the passion index, Precious is looking really good (which is a scary thought). I’m really hoping either Up in the Air, Nine, or Lovely Bones steals its buzz come December.

• 89 11-08-2009 at 1:59 am
  
  red_wine said...

  Precious if it had been normal voting, pick 1 out of the nominees.
  Up In The Air in the new system where all the nominees have to be ranked and the winner has to have over 50% support.

• 90 11-08-2009 at 2:58 am
  
  maurier said...

  The answer to this question is Precious

• 91 11-08-2009 at 5:38 am
  
  Brando said...

  So easy… Precious, of course.

• 92 11-08-2009 at 5:40 am
  
  M.Harris said...

  I think that “Up in The Air” will edge out “Precious” in the Best Picture category.

  I give it a slight edge because the movie’s theme is so apropo as to what is happening today in corporate America.

  If they still had a five pic nomination system my prediction would be…

  “Up in The Air”
  “Precious”
  “The Hurt Locker”
  “An Education”
  The fifth would be…”Invictus” – “The Lovely Bones’ – “”Nine”

• 93 11-08-2009 at 5:46 am
  
  Chris said...

  An Education.

  Why? Because I like it, but not enough to actually be happy if it wins. That’s how it works most of the time.

  Also, I don’t like predicting films I haven’t seen, and of the contenders for BP I’ve only seen “Up” and “The Hurt Locker”, but I don’t see either of them winning.

• 94 11-08-2009 at 5:54 am
  
  m1 said...

  The Hurt Locker; It has the best reviews of almost any other contender this year and it has been a while since a traditional thriller has won (No Country for Old Men doesn’t count). It is also very suspenseful.

• 95 11-08-2009 at 6:04 am
  
  John H. Foote said...

  “Precious” at this writing should, but I think the Academy will go for “Up in the Air” a worthy winner — would love to see “The Hurt Locker” in the mix as well as “Up” which is neck and neck with “Precious” as best film of the year for me.

• 96 11-08-2009 at 7:53 am
  
  mike said...

  The Hurt Locker
  Where The Wild Things Are
  This Is It
  The Damned United
  Star Trek

  My 5 fav films this year and the most deserving

• 97 11-08-2009 at 8:09 am
  
  Dustin said...

  either Avatar, or Up wins best picture
  Lee Daniels wins Best Director
  Meryl Streep wins Actress (or upset buy Sibide)
  Jeff Bridges wins Actor
  Julianne Moore wins Supporting Actress (or upset by Mariah Carey or Monique)
  Chris Plummer wins Supporting Actor
  Jason Reitman wins screenplay
  Up wins animated

• 98 11-08-2009 at 8:11 am
  
  Joel said...

  Whatever Armond White thinks is the worst film of the year, or at least down there in the bottom three. Right now, that appears to be “Precious,” so I’ll go with that one. That, and it’s one of the best-received movies so far this year.

  I also think, if the Academy decides to go the way of 2003 and have a huge-budget movie win, it’ll be “Star Trek” or “Avatar.”

• 99 11-08-2009 at 8:16 am
  
  red_wine said...

  Up winning Best Picture is a pipe dream. Its not gonna happen. Not that it won’t be a very good choice. An animated film is never ever going to win.

  And Precious wasn’t as well received as was expected. It can’t even claim to be 1 of the 20 best reviewed films of the year. Up in The Air will fare much better.

• 100 11-08-2009 at 8:25 am
  
  Ben M. said...

  My best guess would be Up in the Air: seems to fit the times, have decent commercial potential (really the R rating is the only thing making me doubt it could make as much as Juno), and has gotten acclaim at all its showings.

  I could also see Precious (though having seen the film I understand some of the more mixed responses and feel they might just reward it in supporting actress), Invictus, or Avatar (if it it is the next Titanic/LOTR) winning.

• 101 11-08-2009 at 8:53 am
  
  The Other James D. said...

  @Dustin: You do realize that there are two screenplay categories, right?

  @Joel: No, it’s definitely not. Early fanaticism isn’t equivocal to the cumulative ratings in the end. Like red_wine said, it’s not in the Top 20. Looking at Metacritic’s scores for this year so far, it is definitely *not* in the Top 15.

  I think “Precious” being shoved down the throats of many is cause enough for the Academy to say no. It might be a repeat of a “Brokeback Mountain” fiasco, where early traction is behind it, but AMPAS voters say “pfft”.

  With Oprah and Tyler Perry TELLING them how amazing it is, it’s likely to turn off people. Oscar voters are notorious for hating to be told what to do (most of the time).

• 102 11-08-2009 at 9:11 am
  
  Salma said...

  Up in the air.

  Humorous dramedy.
  Academy friendly.
  And George Clooney.
  Need I say more?

• 103 11-08-2009 at 9:48 am
  
  Morgan said...

  I simply can’t believe the buzz over “Precious” is going to hold out until Oscar time, especially if non-Oprah audiences don’t go see it, which is quite possible. The buzz on the movie has started too soon.

  Again, I think we’re due for a late entry in the sweepstakes and I’m wondering if that film is “Agora.”

• 104 11-08-2009 at 9:51 am
  
  The Other James D. said...

  I thought “Agora” is supposed to be a bomb. Weren’t there tons of early pans?

• 105 11-08-2009 at 10:58 am
  
  Kate said...

  The Hurt Locker, and Bigelow best director :)

• 106 11-08-2009 at 11:03 am
  
  Scott said...

  “Precious” peaked too early and won’t connect with the majority of Oscar voters. The Academy has already shown that it loves Jason Reitman; he was nominated for Best Director for one of the weakest Best Picture nominees in years. We also know they love da Clooney. Combine that with the face that “Up in the Air” is more timely and culturally relevant than any of the other possible nominees, and I think we have our winner.

• 107 11-08-2009 at 11:04 am
  
  Scott said...

  FACT, damn it, not face.

• 108 11-08-2009 at 11:14 am
  
  Derek 8-Track said...

  @ Scott,
  How is up in the air culturally relevant? I haven’t seen it and can’t figure it out from the trailer.

• 109 11-08-2009 at 11:34 am
  
  Kristopher Tapley said...

  Jester: You sense wrong. It’s a four star work of art in my mind.

• 110 11-08-2009 at 11:40 am
  
  The Other James D. said...

  @Derek: Try reading the plot summary–it’s all about job losses and our dwindling economy, in this financial crisis. Clooney’s character’s job is to fire people when other companies are, basically, too chickenshit to do it themselves. I think he explicitly stated that in one UITA trailer, in fact. You must’ve only seen the teasers.

• 111 11-08-2009 at 1:00 pm
  
  Brian said...

  Of movies that have been seen, it’s Up in the Air vs. Precious. Everything else is an also ran, no matter what wishing there might be.

  Of the three big guns (Lovely Bones, Nine, Invictus) left to see, any of those could win it.

• 112 11-08-2009 at 1:37 pm
  
  Derek 8-Track said...

  @Other James D.
  Yep. thanks.

• 113 11-08-2009 at 2:30 pm
  
  Glenn said...

  “For those saying that they believe Precious is going to win have obviously not seen the film. ”

  You say that as if everyone should have seen it by now. Not everyone has been deemed worthy enough to see it yet.

• 114 11-08-2009 at 3:10 pm
  
  Patryk said...

  Best Picture: “Nine”
  Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

  Possible upset: “Up in the Air”

  Also ran: “The Hurt Locker” Has any film with such a low box office total ever won Best Picture?

  NOT nominated: Lee Daniels

• 115 11-08-2009 at 3:20 pm
  
  Mike said...

  Nine
  The Lovely Bones
  or
  Up in the Air

  I’m just not seeing Precious winning. Kris seeing as you have seen Crazy Heart, do you think it has a shot at winning or even being nominated for best picture?

• 116 11-08-2009 at 3:24 pm
  
  Maxim said...

  I will only say this after last year’s Awards Ceremony I have little faith that the ultimate winner would actually be any good.

  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

  Personally though, I think it would be really cool to see a woman win a Best Director award.

• 117 11-08-2009 at 3:34 pm
  
  The Other James D. said...

  @Patryk: You have to also consider the extremely modest budget that “The Hurt Locker” had rather than its total in comparison to others.

• 118 11-08-2009 at 6:01 pm
  
  Andrew said...

  Up in the Air for Picture.

  The Hurt Locker for Director.

  Totally late for the conversation and it’s been said before, but “Precious” will be too divisive. I hate to say it, but its campaign will be marred by Carey-Perry-Monique backlash. Look for it to pick up some other awards – Supporting Actress, and maybe even Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

  “The Hurt Locker” will turn out to be the critical darling of the year, but box office will destroy its chances at the big prize. It will pick up a hefty batch, though, with Director, Cinematography, Editing, and Sound Editing, with possible wins for Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.

  “Invictus” will walk away empty handed, the victim of “we’ve already given you all awards before”. Matt Damon will have to wait another year.

  “An Education” will be too ‘European’ to win the big award, but will fight for Actress.

  “Avatar” will fall short of expectations, killing it’s chance at the big award. It will also be seen as a masterpiece of visual effects and little else; therefore, it’s sole award will be Visual Effects.

  “Nine” will pull a “Dreamgirls”. Comparisons to “Chicago” and “8 1/2″ will dullen it’s appeal, although it may walk away with some craft awards, namely Art Direction and Costume.

  “Up” will have unfavourable comparisons with the un-nominated “Wall-E”, and the category bias. However, it will still walk away with Animated, Score, and maybe even Original Screenplay.

  “Inglourious Basterds” is too violent and divisive, and will certainly offend many voters who will accuse it of disrespect. However, there’s no way they’ll give the Supporting Actor award to any one else after that performance.

  That is, until they see Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”, which will represent the film’s sole win. I suspect this may be the biggest threat right now, and may change the game completely when it unveils in December.

  So why “Up in the Air”? Respect for Reitman and Clooney, broad appeal, universal raves, little controversy, box office and no unfavourable comparisons. It doesn’t have to compete against any source material, Clooney is a Hollywood god, and Reitman was a surprise nomination a few years ago. He’s three for three in quality, and with the past year of economic disaster, some comedy will be appreciated. But what’s strange about this? It doesn’t look like it’s a threat in any other category. It will be battling for every other award it gets nominated in. Do we have a BP with a single award, maybe two for Screenplay?

  Picture: Up in the Air
  Director: The Hurt Locker
  Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man
  Actress: Gabby Sidibe, Precious
  Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, Lovely Bones
  Supporting Actress: Monique, Precious
  Original Screenplay: Up? The Hurt Locker?
  Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
  Editing: The Hurt Locker
  Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
  Art Direction: Nine
  Costume: Nine
  Makeup: District 9
  Score: Up
  Song: The Princess and the Frog
  Sound Mixing:
  Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
  Visual Effects: Avatar
  Animated: Up

• 119 11-08-2009 at 10:07 pm
  
  Jane said...

  It Nine, Invictus or Lovely Bones meets expectations (80+ score on Rotten Tomatoes), any one of them could be the big winner. All three have Oscar favorites at the helm and on screen, will probably get some acting buzz, and are the types of films Oscar voters love.

  If those three don’t live up, then I see Precious or Up in the Air winning.

  I don’t think Avatar is even getting nominated; predicting a win is a little delusional. I think it would have to get like over 95 on Rotten Tomatoes to have the slightest chance of winning. I see the Academy easily choosing Inglourious Bastereds for the “popular” box office slot over Avatar.

• 120 11-09-2009 at 7:51 am
  
  DHE said...

  Agora has broken crazy box office records in Spain for some reason, which is why suddenly U.S. distribs are interested again. So who knows, maybe it’s all in the translation. The movie has had 20 minutes cut for a U.S. release, so maybe that’s considered an improvement.

• 121 11-09-2009 at 8:40 am
  
  Sawyer said...

  Precious or Invictus. I’d say it’s a toss up.

• 122 11-09-2009 at 8:40 am
  
  Sawyer said...

  Precious or Invictus. It’s a complete tossup right now.

• 123 11-09-2009 at 9:09 am
  
  Mike_M said...

  There are still a bunch of movies that haven’t been released yet, but I think the winner will be Up In the Air and 2nd option is The Lovely Bones, 3rd is probably A Serious Man.

• 124 11-09-2009 at 2:44 pm
  
  Joe W said...

  I have no idea.

  Up in the Air is a fantastic film and I would be perfectly happy with it winning but I just don’t see it as a Best Picture.

  Precious seems to small to win it (nomination is the reward)

  Invictus seems to have a been there, done that feel to it (not to say it won’t be great). I just think it would be a boring Best Picture winner and voters want a movie that gets them excited

  The Lovely Bones could be outstanding but I don’t know if the mix of thriller with the fantasy world will work for a lot of Academy voters

  The Hurt Locker feels like Precious in that it is too small of a movie to win it big

  Nine feels more like Dreamgirls to me than Chicago

  So maybe Avatar if it really blows everyone away and is a box office titanic (just the pun) and well reviewed by critics

  So I would say it could be
  - Avatar
  - Up in the Air
  - The Lovely Bones

  Outside threats: Precious, The Hurt Locker, Invictus

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