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I don’t offer up predictions on a given year’s Oscar winners until November, generally speaking. And, well, it’s November. Which is still, of course, too early to be making calls like these, since we don’t even have a nominations slate to go by, but I like to take an early stab, revisit in early December and then one more time in early January before we get the nominees.
I asked over the weekend what readers thought would take the Best Picture crown this year, and the majority seemed to lean toward Lee Daniels’s “Precious.” It might be too easy to figure on that at this stage, but it’s difficult to argue with the early box office success and overall critical approval.
But there are certainly other spoilers lurking and the danger of peaking early (yielding more time for competitors to take you down) is always apparent with a film like this.
Keep reading to have a look at what I’m thinking. Rattle off your thoughts and predictions in the comments section if you like.
Best Picture: “Precious”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Precious”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “Star Trek”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Forever Enthralled”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
86 responses so far
1 11-09-2009 at 3:20 pm
Danny K. said...
Good early picks here, I certainly agree with Sidibe and Mo’Nique, and at this point, I also think ‘Precious’ is the Best Picture frontrunner. I think your Bigelow pick is a bold one, and while I certainly think she is worthy, I think that could go to Lee Daniels for ‘Precious’ as well.
2 11-09-2009 at 3:21 pm
James D. said...
Precious is going to win Best Picture without Best Adapted Screenplay? Interesting.
Hope you are right on Bridges.
3 11-09-2009 at 3:35 pm
seasondays said...
i think KATHRYN BIGELOW is the boldest move, everything else just seems right [as in what the ACADEMY usually does]
lately the academy has split more often the DIRECTOR & PICTURE awards, so it’s a long shot but a shot to actually have the HURT LOCKER & PRECIOUS spliting those awards
4 11-09-2009 at 3:39 pm
Ben M. said...
Good predictions. I have a couple of differences (mainly based on my thinking Up in the Air and Avatar will be pretty big)
Picture: Up in the Air
Director: Jason Reitman
Actor: George Clooney
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Matt Damon
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Cinematography: Invictus
Editing: Avatar
Art Direction: The White Ribbon
Costume Design: The Last Station
Score: Avatar
Song: Precious
Make-up: Star Trek
Visual Effects: Avatar
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Sound Editing: Avatar
Foreign Language: The White Ribbon
Animated Feature: Up
Documentary: The Cove
5 11-09-2009 at 3:40 pm
Loyal said...
You’re a brave man Kristopher…
Your predictions seem pretty reasonable. With the Nine screening in NYC only a week away, we should have a pretty good idea soon of where the film stands in the tech race.
6 11-09-2009 at 3:40 pm
benitodelicias said...
It’ll take a lot of bad, mixed reviews for films like Up in the Air and Invictus and Nine and The Lovely Bones to lose to Precious….it’s still gonna be the smaller film and it’ll have to be a phenomenon for it to win.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for the first black director or the first female director FINALLY winning, but I just don’t see it happening to either one of those films. It’ll be easier of Bigelow since she did make that type of film so unlikely for a woman, which will surely bring some votes and make her work more impressive. If only it had been a bigger success…critical acclaim is all it has going for a huge Oscar like Best Director.
Of course Clint won’t win, and Nine is a “believe it when I see it” type of movie/hype, but Jason Reitman seems more likely to me…
I’m surprised that nobody seems to be warming up to Up in the Air winning Oscars after it was so praised during the festivals for absolutely every aspect of the film.
Also, Precious winning editing? I don’t think so.
7 11-09-2009 at 3:41 pm
daveylow said...
I think Up in the Air has a good chance of stealing Best Picture.
8 11-09-2009 at 3:41 pm
Brian said...
I didn’t realize Original Screenplay was such a weak, wide open field until right now. I almost feel like Tarantino or Docter will take it.
9 11-09-2009 at 3:42 pm
Brian said...
Director and adapted screenplay are going to be phenomenal races – hopefully the precursors will spread the love around too.
10 11-09-2009 at 3:44 pm
benitodelicias said...
By the way I’m well aware of how stupid it is to say that because Bigelow is a woman directing a movie like Hurt Locker she’ll get more votes, but it’s just one of those silly theories that always seem to come up when people win Oscars or that determines how voters might think…
And yes, a Jeff Bridges win would be great, it’s nice to see veterans finally recognize (if they deserve it), specially when they’re consistent like Bridges has always been.
Even if I was already liking a possible Colin Firth win…
11 11-09-2009 at 3:45 pm
Loyal said...
hell, why not!
Best Picture: “Avatar”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Avatar”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar”
Best Makeup: “Nine”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
12 11-09-2009 at 3:45 pm
Kevin said...
You don’t see Waltz continuing the Academy’s recent preference for deranged, psychotic lunatics in the supporting actor category (Bardem, Ledger)? His performance has many similar aspects, namely breathless critical acclaim that will be tough to beat.
Having said that, the supporting actor category does look sort of ‘weak’ at this point (I realise people get turned off by this turn of phrase but that how the situation honestly looks to me!)
13 11-09-2009 at 3:46 pm
Mike said...
I really don’t think that Gabby Sidibe has much of a chance at winning. I don’t see Precious as the frontrunner for anything besides supporting actress. I think the academy may find it too gritty and dark.
Picture: Nine
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Actor: Jeff Bridges
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore
14 11-09-2009 at 3:47 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
For the record, I was *this* close to going with Up in the Air in Best Pic, but I didn’t feel right predicting it for anything else other than screenplay, while Precious feels pretty good in a number of fields. The new voting paradigm is what will carry Reitman’s film over, if it happens. It does have that universally agreeable thing going for it.
15 11-09-2009 at 3:48 pm
"Julianstark" said...
My predictions are similar:
Picture: Precious
Director: Rob Marshall (Nine)
Adapted Screenplay: Precious
Original Screenplay: Up
Actor: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
Actress: Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (Precious)
Art Direction: Nine
Cinematography: Nine
Costume Design: Sherlock Holmes
Film Editing: Precious
Make-Up: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Sound Editing: Nine
Sound Mixing: Nine
Visual Effects: Avatar
Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Animated Feature: Up
Documentary: The Cove
16 11-09-2009 at 3:53 pm
Brian said...
“Nine” is screening in Los Angeles tonight (though not for critics, I believe) so that question should be somewhat more answered by the end of the week.
I’m fine with “Precious” winning (if it deserves it), but I do hope we get a good race this year. The last few have been prettttty boring.
17 11-09-2009 at 3:54 pm
Matthew Starr said...
Hey Loyal is the Nine screening still happening? Were you talking about the one on 11/16 at 8P? It looks like it was canceled?
18 11-09-2009 at 3:58 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Nine screens for the press next week. Soon enough…
19 11-09-2009 at 3:58 pm
Brian said...
For all you LAers, Nine is sneak-peeking at the Arclight in Sherman Oaks at 7.
20 11-09-2009 at 4:01 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Still testing? Harvey’s relentless.
21 11-09-2009 at 4:03 pm
tintin said...
Picture: The lovely bones
Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Adapted Screenplay: The lovely bones
Original Screenplay: Up
Actor: Colin Firth, A single man
Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (Precious)
Art Direction: Nine
Cinematography: Nine
Costume Design: The young Victoria
Film Editing: The lovely bones
Make-Up: Star trek
Sound Editing: Avatar
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Visual Effects: Avatar
Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Animated Feature: Up
Documentary: The Cove
22 11-09-2009 at 4:07 pm
Dustin said...
I like your predictions. They all make sense at this point in the game. As much as I love Meryl Streep… She has three oscars and fifteen nominations… Gabby Sibide IS Precious…. Especially because I see the supporting actress to go to Julianne Moore. I’d also put my sound predictions on Avatar… And my song prediction to the princess and the frog.
23 11-09-2009 at 4:08 pm
j said...
First & 2nd choices, with my choice in parantheses:
Pic: Up in the Air/Precious (Single Man)
Director: Reitman/Bigelow (Jane Campion)
Actress: Streep/Mulligan (Streep)
Supp Actress: Mo’Nique/Moore (Moore)
Supp Actor: Waltz/Tucci (Whishaw)
Actor: Firth/Bridges (Firth)
Original: Hurt/Up (Bright Star)
Adapted: Up in the Air/Lovely Bones (Single Man)
Edit: Nine/Precious (Um, whichever one between Single Man & Bright Star has better editing.)
So only the lead acting races I’m currently guessing will go my way.
Foreign: A Prophet; France has won once in the last 30 years despite 17 nominations. It feels the last 8 years’ overflow of low-profile winners will also help A Prophet’s chances.White Ribbon: Germany’s won 2 of last 7; it’d be interesting if Austria’s entry got in after the conflict about where it would come from but it has a most-recent 1/2 record for wins. This’d be China’s 3rd nom ever; hmm. It’d be nice, though, if this could gear up for Zhang Ziyi being the first-ever Azn lead nominated in a year not fa from now after being snubbed despite Bafta/Sag/Globe noms (the only lead bid that happened to this decade).
24 11-09-2009 at 4:10 pm
Grant said...
If that’s how it actually goes down, I’m going to be so pissed. I really disliked “Slumdog Millionaire” and “Precious.” It’s been a long time since the Academy consecutively awarded Best Picture to movies that I don’t like. So I hope you’re wrong, but you’re predictions seem pretty spot-on, except, perhaps, for Best Supporting Actor, which in my opinion will go to Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds.
25 11-09-2009 at 4:30 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
I think supporting will prove to be Plummer vs. Tucci in the end, but we’ll see.
26 11-09-2009 at 4:32 pm
M.Harris said...
Kris – Gaboury Sidibie could have the best performance of the year – in the lead Actress category.But Academy history being what it is – I think that it will go to Meyrl Streep.
The Academy has a long standing history of giving the Oscar to an Actor to make -up for them not getting it in the past.Be it the previous year – or giving it to someone who has had a ton of nominations before.
Russell Crowe for “Gladiator” – when in truth he should have won for “The Insider.”
The many nominations that Al Pacino received before winning for his role in “Scent of a Woman”- which was a make up Osacar for not winning for his previous(correct me if I’m wrong) six performances.
Or just last year with Kate Winslet winning for “The Reader”- her(correct me if I’m wrong)fifth nomination.When it could have went to Meryl Streep.
Not to say that these were unworthy performances by these actors in the year that they won.Also not saying that Streep’s performance this year is unworthy.
I’m just saying that when there is no clear cut front-runner in a category,and things appear to be even – the Academy has a way of giving a “make up Oscar” to a nominee who had tons of nominations before – or someone who was in the thick of it a year or two beforehand.And both of these things apply to Meryl Streep.
27 11-09-2009 at 4:34 pm
Joe W said...
Best Picture: “Up in the Air”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglorious ”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Where the Wild Things Are”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Star Trek”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
28 11-09-2009 at 4:47 pm
Adrianna said...
I think your choices are reasonable. At this stage, my guess (and hope) would be:
Best Picture: Hurt Locker (alt: Up in the Air)
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Actor: Jeff Bridges (alt. George Clooney)
Actress: Carey Mulligan
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supporting Actress: Melanie Laurent
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Costumes: Bright Star or Cheri
29 11-09-2009 at 4:51 pm
Clarence said...
Picture: Precious
Director: Lee Daniels “Precious”
Actor: Jeff Bridges “Crazy Heart”
Actress: Meryl Streep “It’s Complicated”
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci “The Lovely Bones”
Supporting Actress: Monique “Precious”
Adapted Screenplay: Precious
Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Art Direction: Nine
Cinematography: Nine
Costume Design: Nine
Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Make Up: Nine
Original Song: “I See In Color” Mary J Blige
Sound Editing: Avatar
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Visual Effects: Avatar
Animated Film: Up
Foreign Language: “Mother” Korea
Documentary: The Cove
30 11-09-2009 at 5:07 pm
Guany said...
Kris I totally agree with your predicted Nine wins in the techs. The Academy will eat that up.
I do however think that Streep will win. Sidibe is a very close second though. It’s just that this will be Streep’s 4th nomination in 7 years, and she was very clearly in 2nd place last year with the SAG and BFCA wins. Plus, she’s in a biopic, and displays an accent – that never hurt anyone.
My ‘Top 8′ Predictions:
Picture – Precious
Director – Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
Actor – Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
Actress – Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia
Supp. Actor – Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
Supp. Actress – Mo’Nique for Precious
Original – The Hurt Locker
Adapted – Precious
31 11-09-2009 at 5:07 pm
muellerg said...
If I stole all the Academy members’ ballots, the results would be as follows:
Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Peter Sarsgaard, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air”
Best Art Direction: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Cinematography: “An Education”
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Best Make Up: “Star Trek”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “Public Enemies”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature: “Up”
Best Original Score: Clint Mansell, “Moon”
Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Documentary Feature: “Food, Inc.”
Best Documentary Short: “The Last Truck: Closing A GM Plant”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet”
32 11-09-2009 at 5:07 pm
Brian said...
You really think Waltz will factor out of the race, Kris? How is Plummer’s perf, btw?
33 11-09-2009 at 5:28 pm
aspect ratio said...
I’d say those predictions all sound very logical and reasonable, an even spread of winners unlike last year’s one-movie show.
I’m most intrigued by the Plummer prediction.. what are you going by here, would it be as a career Oscar for the most part, or is he really that good in the role that he could beat out Waltz and (possibly) Damon?
34 11-09-2009 at 5:29 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
I think it would be sentiment that carries Plummer over, but I could easily see a Waltz or a Tucci take him down.
35 11-09-2009 at 5:29 pm
M.Harris said...
Best Picture “Up in The Air”
Lead Actress – Meryl Streep “Julia And Julia”
Supp Actress – Mo’Nique “Precious”
Lead Actor – George Clooney “Up in The Air”
Supp Actor – Christopher Plummer “The Last Station
Best Director – Kathyrn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker”
36 11-09-2009 at 5:33 pm
Ali E. said...
I agree with most of Kris’ predictions. But I say…
Best Picture: “Precious”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “An Education”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “I See in Color” from “Precious”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Max Manus”
37 11-09-2009 at 5:35 pm
tony rock said...
Precious won’t win it. Maybe if it becomes a 100+ mil blockbuster, but otherwise no. It’ll be either Up in the Air or one of the big contenders still waiting in the wings.
38 11-09-2009 at 5:38 pm
John H. Foote said...
Too early for me to call too much though I think history will be made when Bigelow wins Best Director — been a long time coming…loved her since “Near Dark” which is still the best vampire flick ever made.
39 11-09-2009 at 5:38 pm
Jake D said...
After seeing it, I don’t really think Precious can go the distance. It’s great, but it’s definitely an actor’s piece, and while I appreciated the plot, it still followed the well-worn “inspiring teacher” formula a bit too closely.
But here are some predictions just so I can look back at them later:
Best Picture: “Up in the Air”
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Up in the Air”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “The Princess and the Frog”
Best Music (Original Song): “Nine”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up” (ugh)
Best Foreign Language Film: “Un Prophete”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
40 11-09-2009 at 6:04 pm
Chris said...
My Predictions
Best Picture: “Up in the Air”
Best Director: Rob Marshall, “Nine”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci ‘The Lovely Bones”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “An Education”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Make Up: “Star Trek”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature: “Up”
Best Original Score: “Avatar”
Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Documentary Feature: “Food, Inc.”
Best Documentary Short: “The Last Truck: Closing A GM Plant”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Ajami”
41 11-09-2009 at 6:16 pm
seasondays said...
i really don’t see any of the “big” contenders winning, i’m sure
AVATAR
INVICTUS
LOVELY BONES
NINE
will be nominated, but neither of these will win, i’m almost sure we’ll see a split in the PICTURE / DIRECTOR categories [SPIELBERG / SODERBERGH / POLANSKI / LEE did it in the past 12 years]
if they go “light” we’ll see UP IN THE AIR
if they go “dark” we’ll see PRECIOUS
42 11-09-2009 at 6:20 pm
Meli said...
As powerful and positively reviewed as Precious is, I’ll still find myself surprised if it wins a BP Oscar. However, I think I’ll be compelled to throw a TV if Mo’Nique doesn’t get a statue.
43 11-09-2009 at 6:24 pm
Chris said...
Picture: Up in the Air
Director: Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Actor: George Clooney – Up in the Air
Actress: Meryl Streep – It’s Complicated
Supporting Actor: Matt Damon – Invictus
Supporting Actress: Mo’nique – Precious
Original Screenplay: Up
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
44 11-09-2009 at 6:33 pm
Joey said...
Best Picture: Precious
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Art Direction: The Lovely Bones
Best Cinematography: Nine
Best Costume Design: Nine
Best Make Up: Star Trek
Best Film Editing: Precious
Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Mixing: Nine
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: “I See In Color”, Precious
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
45 11-09-2009 at 6:41 pm
Beau said...
Bridges has it in the bag, I think. Same with Monique. I’m feeling Tucci in ‘Lovely Bones’ or Waltz for ‘Basterds’. Streep for ‘It’s Complicated’ or Carey Mulligan for ‘An Education’, but I think the former is going to ride it home. My thoughts.
Director will probably go to Reitman.
46 11-09-2009 at 6:52 pm
Al said...
These are contenders I THINK will win, not who I necessarily want to win.
Picture – Up In The Air or A Serious Man (possible upset)
Actor – Daniel Day Lewis (Nine)
Actress – Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Supporting Actor – Waltz (Basterds)
Cinematography – Nine
Director – Reitman
47 11-09-2009 at 6:55 pm
Marshall said...
Best Picture: “Up in the Air”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Alfred Molina, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Animated Film: “Up”
I don’t really care to take a stab at the technical categories.
48 11-09-2009 at 6:55 pm
John K said...
Top 8 Predictions:
Picture: “The Lovely Bones”
Director: “Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
S. Actor: Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
S. Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
O. Screenplay: “Up”
A. Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
49 11-09-2009 at 7:01 pm
Jim said...
Best Picture: Up In The Air
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Adapted Screenplay: Precious
Best Original Screenplay: A Serious Man
Best Art Direction: Nine
Best Cinematography: Nine
Best Costume Design: Nine
Best Film Editing: Up In The Air
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Best Music (Original Score): Avatar
Best Music (Original Song): Precious
Best Sound Editing: Star Trek
Best Sound Mixing: Star Trek
Best Visual Effects: Star Trek
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
Predictions are always difficult to do this time of year, when none of the precursors have been announced, and we also don’t know who will be nominated.
Picture: I feel confident in saying as of now it should be between Precious and Up In The Air. I think the Academy might want to pick something perhaps less heavy than say Precious. Huge star, could possibly be a critics darling, and feels very relevant while dealing with timeless ideals.
Director: Between Lee Daniels, Kathryn Bigelow, and Jason Reitman. I hate to pull the race or sex card cause they could be deserving of their nominations and their possible wins, but that could help Bigelow and Daniels. I say this cause their small personal films to these filmmakers as well.
Actor: If Freeman, Firth, Bridges, and Clooney are nominated, could go anywhere. Clooney did just recently win, but he is getting positive reviews. Alot of buzz now for Bridges. Freeman in a Eastwood flick. Firth getting standout reviews as well.
Actress: Sidibe, Mulligan, Streep. I say Mulligan. Praises for Mulligan. Streep could be considered overdue for a 3rd win. Sidibe wins with various Precious wins.
Supporting Actor-Another tough category to predict. If Molina, Tucci, Damon, Plummer, and Waltz get nominated, they could win for different reasons. Actors like Tucci, Molina, and Plummer are well respected character actors. Waltz has been generally praised. Damon has two efforts out this year.
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique. Maybe Moore.
Adapted: Precious or Up In The Air
Original: A Serious Man, but the Coens have won recently. Up and Hurt Locker have strong shots too.
50 11-09-2009 at 7:20 pm
Chris138 said...
Not much to disagree with, Kris, except that I still think Christoph Waltz at this point is going to win. However, that is certainly subject to change as time goes on, so after all you may be right.
51 11-09-2009 at 7:38 pm
David said...
I have not seen most of the contenders, but to this point Up is by far the best film I have seen.
52 11-09-2009 at 7:42 pm
Speaking English said...
Best Original Screenplay: “A Serious Man”
No question. How this is even a contest is beyond me. “The Hurt Locker?” Weak. “Up,” okay, but in comparison just doesn’t even stand up to the Coens’ triumph.
And if Bigelow gets anywhere near that damn Best Director Oscar I’ll scream a scream that’ll be heard across the world. I’d like to hope the first woman to win Director would actually be deserving. Give it to Campion if you must award a woman. Don’t do it just because ‘it’s never happened.’ That’s idiotic reasoning.
53 11-09-2009 at 7:43 pm
luke828 said...
Best Picture: Precious
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor: George Clooney
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
Best Adapted Screenplay: An Education
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: Avatar
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “Star Trek”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Forever Enthralled”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
54 11-09-2009 at 7:53 pm
Rob said...
**vague, not-really-a-spoiler alert**
I find it interesting (if still technically accurate) that “Precious” is being labeled the ‘dark’ film and “Up in the Air” as the ‘light’ film, while the former ends on a note of hope/uplift, and the latter closes on a note of restrained sadness.
55 11-09-2009 at 7:54 pm
luke828 said...
Best Picture: Right now, Precious has the momentum, but that doesn’t mean something like Avatar, Lovely Bones, or Nine can derail it.
Best Director: Daniels could pull a surprise, but the direction for Precious isnt anything new. Id put money on Bigelow, but maybe James Cameron if the Academy has gotten over his last acceptance speech.
Best Actor: While Bridges may be great, Clooney’s reviews out of film festivals have been stellar and he is already an Academy favorite. This may come down to name recognition.
Best Actress: In my opinion, Sidibe isnt close to having this one wrapped up. Sidibe is an actress whose future in the industry could be limited given some of her physical characteristics. (Not that I approve of this.) This fact will dissuade some voters, and last year’s close race between Winslet and Streep may lead the Academy to award Streep her third Oscar as a way of honoring all her accomplishments since her last win.
Best Supporting Actor: The fact that Basterds will probably not be a Best Pic nominee may lead some voters to honor the film with at least this award. Besides, of the nominees, its probably going to be the highest grosser.
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique. She has it wrapped up right now, but Im thinking it may go the way of Eddie Murphy’s Dreamgirls nod. Her indifference to the awards may derail her. Then it will be Moore’s.
56 11-09-2009 at 7:58 pm
De'Garryan said...
Meryl Streep only has two Oscars, one for supporting, and one for lead. I PRAY PRECIOUS WINS EVERY OSCAR IT’S NOMINATED FOR!!!
57 11-09-2009 at 8:18 pm
Mr. F said...
I’m rooting for either Sidibe or Streep to win. Sidibe because as history shows it is unlikely she will get another role of this caliber (although she is doing a nice of job getting projects that seem to have some quality, and I’m happy about that), and Streep because, well she is overdue. As for Mulligan, I feel it is too early for her to win. She will go on to give better performances, and if she wins now it will be hard for her to win for those other performances
58 11-09-2009 at 8:39 pm
Phil said...
I’m surprised there’s not more support for Invictus (who knows how the film will play once it actually comes out). Eastwood and Freeman are a potent combination. Plus, as the earlier post about South Africa mentioned, it seems like the right film for the right time, given current state of affairs in the U.S., one year after a historic election.
59 11-09-2009 at 8:42 pm
luke828 said...
De’Garryan: I said Streep has two Oscars. I was saying that this could be the year she wins her third.
60 11-09-2009 at 8:42 pm
Ali E. said...
@Speaking English…
You know you’re in the minority about your feeling towards The Hurt Locker, right? Bigelow may or may not win, but she’d be a deserving winner and that won’t change just because you don’t think so… Why so arrogant?
And I’ll personally be very happy if she wins, not just because of her great work in The Hurt Locker, but because she has always been a great filmmaker…
61 11-09-2009 at 8:43 pm
leonardo said...
My early predictions:
Best Picture: “Up in the air”
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A single man”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Alec Baldwin, “It’s complicated”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The hurt locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Up in the air”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Up in the air”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “I See in Color” from “Precious”
Best Sound Editing: “Up in the airr”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A prophet”
62 11-09-2009 at 8:45 pm
luke828 said...
Speaking English: The academy wont just hold off giving an award to a woman until someone monumental comes around. If Bigelow did the best job of the year, she deserves it. I agree that Campion is more talented, but she didnt deserve it more than Spielberg in 1993.
63 11-09-2009 at 8:53 pm
Speaking English said...
***If Bigelow did the best job of the year, she deserves it.***
I agree. But she didn’t. I could list you at least six directorial jobs this year I feel are far superior to her work, and probably will be able to name ten or more by the end of the year. It’s just a matter of a woman winning when she truly, genuinely deserves it, not when everyone is clamoring for it because it’ll make “history.” Campion did a far better job on Bright Star this year. I would give it to her (although the Coens are my #1 choice).
64 11-09-2009 at 8:55 pm
luke828 said...
Bigelow isnt going to win because of gender, and if she does, it will be a testament to her talent because the Academy is slow to award certain groups for the first time
65 11-09-2009 at 9:40 pm
Andy said...
Best Picture: “Precious”
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Best Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “Star Trek”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Samson & Delilah”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
66 11-09-2009 at 9:42 pm
SeanDean said...
The shockeroo of the Oscar nominations will be Streep getting nominated for Lead for IT’S COMPLICATED.
67 11-09-2009 at 10:24 pm
Leone said...
I’m just not betting on Academy over the top winning love for a movie like PRECIOUS, so here goes, some based on what I’ve seen and others obviously, well, not.
Best Picture: UP IN THE AIR
Best Director: Clint Eastwood, INVICTUS
Best Actor: George Clooney, UP IN THE AIR
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, THE LOVELY BONES
Best Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick, UP IN THE AIR
Best Adapted Screenplay: THE LOVELY BONES
Best Original Screenplay: THE HURT LOCKER
Best Art Direction: NINE
Best Cinematography: AN EDUCATION
Best Costume Design: STAR TREK
Best Film Editing: STAR TREK
Best Makeup: STAR TREK
Best Music (Original Score): THE ROAD
Best Music (Original Song): PRECIOUS
Best Sound Editing: STAR TREK
Best Sound Mixing: NINE
Best Visual Effects: AVATAR
Best Animated Feature Film: UP
Best Foreign Language Film: THE WHITE RIBBON
68 11-09-2009 at 10:24 pm
Leone said...
And Best Documentary – ANVIL THE STORY OF ANVIL
69 11-09-2009 at 10:55 pm
Ed of WeHO said...
And here we go again? Oh yeah, it’s November already. Oh well, so far based on the movies I have seen, here are my top 5:
Best Picture: Precious
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, “The Lovey Bones”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
I am 90% sure Meryl will win SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and Oscars. Mulligan & Cornish is fading away, it is too soon for Sidibe, too soon for Mirren as well. It will be Meryl’s 16th noms, coming from a very formidable perfomance last year- Doubt and some years after that- Prada, and a delightful performance from Julie and Julia, she is the sure winner. I just hope she gets nominated for J & J instead of Its Complicated. Oh well, look at what happened to Kate Winslet last year, she won in The Reader instead of Rev Road. It’s not only that Streep is overdue but she was memorable in J & J! Go Meryl!
70 11-09-2009 at 11:07 pm
han said...
Best Picture: “Precious”
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Secret in Their Eyes”(Argentina)
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
71 11-09-2009 at 11:26 pm
red_wine said...
Best Picture: Up In The Air
Best Director: Reitman
Best Actor: Bridges
Best Actress: Sidibe
Best Supporting Actor: Anybody besides Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Monique
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up In The Air
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Nine
Best Cinematography: Nine
Best Costume Design: Nine
Best Film Editing: Avatar
Best Music (Original Score): Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
72 11-10-2009 at 12:21 am
Aaron said...
@Mr. F…Carey Mulligan will not win because “it is too early for her to win”? This is Gabourey Sidibe’s FIRST film performance, and I think the Academy will take that into consideration…
…I liked Precious quite a lot, but I did find it a little formulaic. There were powerful performances, and the direction was solid, but it didn’t really floor me like everyone else—I think my expectations were way too high for it….but Mo’Nique is flat out brilliant and hands down deserves that Oscar.
I’m thinking Up in the Air will resonate with voters. They like Clooney, they like Reitman, and it seems like it deals with current issues that are very relevant in today’s societies (although I’m speculating, I haven’t seen it)
Picture: Up in the Air
Directing: Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Actor: George Clooney, Up in the Air
Actress: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
73 11-10-2009 at 1:19 am
alex said...
No Oscar for Pffeifer or Julianne Moore?? Oscar for the horrible james Horner for Avatar?
Oscar for a newcomer (Sidibe) and not for great actresses with a great career??
Definitely, there is no justice in the world. Well, maybe we have another Marlee Matlin that will win for the pity or for be a poor black and obese girl¡¡ The menbers of the academy will give her the Oscar to relax their conciences and all of us we’ll have another Marlee Matlin that will be forgotten in a few years¡
74 11-10-2009 at 4:37 am
Holden said...
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Colin Firth “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz “Inglorious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “All is Love” Where the Wild Things Are
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
Best Documentary Feature: “Capitalism: A Love Story”
75 11-10-2009 at 6:05 am
John said...
Aight, for now:
PIC – Lovely Bones
DIR – Bigelow, Hurt Locker
ACTOR – Bridges
ACTRESS – Streep
S. ACTOR – Tucci
S. ACTRESS – Monique
ORIGINAL – Inglourious Basterds
ADAPTED – Up in the Air
CINEMATOGRAPHY – Nine
ART DIRECTION – Nine
COSTUMES – Nine
MAKE-UP – Star Trek
SOUND EDITING – Avatar
SOUND MIXING – Avatar
VISUAL EFFECTS – Avatar
SCORE – Avatar
SONG – Weary Kind, Crazy Heart
ANIMATED – Up
FOREIGN – White Ribbon
DOCUMENTARY – The Cove
Avatar – 4 wins
Nine – 3 wins
Lovely Bones – 2 wins
Crazy Heart – 2 wins
Precious – 1 win
Hurt Locker – 1 win
Inglourious Basterds – 1 win
Up – 1 win
Up in the Air – 1 win
Julie & Julia – 1 win
Star Trek – 1 win
White Ribbon – 1 win
The Cove – 1 win
76 11-10-2009 at 7:34 am
Caleb Roth said...
Carey Mulligan: the Audrey Hepburn comparision is just perfect. Wonderful break-through, charming cinderella, Paris, Oscar. Unbeatable.
77 11-10-2009 at 8:15 am
Speaking English said...
Definitely beatable.
78 11-10-2009 at 8:34 am
Jim T said...
I’ll go ahead and say it. I’m not sure Meryl will be nominated. Many reasons. None of them too strong but the combination…
1) Nominated last year.
2) Light film
3) It’s Complicated
4) Competition
5) Not a November-December release
I give it a 50% probability.
79 11-10-2009 at 8:55 am
Aaron Chasse said...
This year is a tough one. I don’t think Precious will get best picture since a movie underdog like it won last year and I think Lovely Bones is the most Academy award kind of movie out there. And I think the Academy will go with the director-picture double win again this year. I think Colin Firth has what it takes but I don’t think the Academy will vote for 2 gay roles back to back. Plus DDL just won and giving the best actor to Freeman is looking more and more likely. And I think Nine will win a bunch of technical awards for just being a musical.
Best Picture: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Director: Peter Jackson, “the Lovely Bones”
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Nine”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “Cinema Italiana” from “Nine”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet”
Best Documentary Feature: “Capitalism: A Love Story”
80 11-10-2009 at 9:25 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
English: An important thing to keep in mind this time of year, since I see you’re already stumbling: just because you say something over and over again, doesn’t make it so.
81 11-10-2009 at 9:41 am
Guy Lodge said...
“While Bridges may be great, Clooney’s reviews out of film festivals have been stellar and he is already an Academy favorite. This may come down to name recognition.”
Are you implying that Bridges isn’t a recognizable name? Wow.
82 11-10-2009 at 9:51 am
leonardo said...
I think that the battle between new comers Sibide and Mulligan, gonna make the way so much easier for Meryl Streep and her third oscar for Julie & Julia, not for It’s Complicated. But i got a felling that Alec Baldwin can give a surprise and win for his supporting role for It’s Complicated. The man is so funny, and seems like the heart and soul of the movie. And the academy likes to recognize that kind of supporting roles from time to time. Remember Whoopi Golberg, Cuba Gooding Jr., Diane Wiest , Jack Palance and Kevin Kline, just to name a few.
83 11-10-2009 at 10:36 am
Joey said...
I am a huge Julianne Moore fan so I am excited for her to maybe get nominated yet again. But I just want her to win a damn Oscar already! I am sure that Mo’Nique will take the award, but if the Best Supporting Actress tradition picks back up again, it will be a surprise. My only concern is that if Moore wins, I don’t want backlash to start against her. Actually, if there is a surprise winner for Supporting Actress, it might go to Anna Kendrick.
84 11-14-2009 at 6:31 pm
Andrew said...
always find it hard to pick winners from unreleased films.
hope there’s more love for Bright Star and Julianne Moore is soooo overdue
85 11-17-2009 at 10:56 am
luke828 said...
@Guy Lodge-
Bridges is recognizable, but has never come close to the type of star power that Clooney currently has. Add in the fact that Up In The Air will be more widely seen, and he has two big obstacles in his way. The Academy has constantly snubbed the best performance in order to award the more visible one
86 11-21-2009 at 7:23 am
Ashley said...
Kris, I agree with most of your predictions. Especially the Bridges one, Colin Firth, is a polarizing actor, with some loving him and others (like me) totally immune to his abilities. I think Bridges is way overdue and because Clooney has an Oscar already it is highly likely that they will go for Bridges–but it will be a tough get for him. Could go either way. Strong cases could be made for both films. Some might argue that Bridges has the “Mickey Rourke/Bill Murray/Ellen Burstyn/Julie Christie slot” and they could be right, but only time will tell.
Here we go:
(runner up in brackets)
Best Picture: “Precious” (The Hurt Locker)
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” (Lee Daniels)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” (Clooney)
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious” (Streep, Julia)
Best Supporting Actor: Christophe Waltz (no competition)
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious” (locked for the win)
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Nine”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): UP
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “Star Trek”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”