Features
Headlines
Search
Loading ...
Archives
Seeing as Kris was (delete as appropriate) brave/stupid/psychic/smart enough to predict who will win the Oscars four months ahead of the ceremony (and three weeks earlier than he did last year), I figured I’d follow up, as I did last year, with my own foolhardy guesses too.
Last year, Kris kicked my ass at this particular game, correctly guessing 13 out 21 categories, and forecasting “Slumdog” fever while I was still on the “Milk” train. (Ironically, the lone “Slumdog Millionaire” win I predicted — Best Song — was one Kris missed.) For my part, I called wins for Sean Penn and Kate Winslet (for the wrong film, of course) … though that hardly qualifies as visionary, does it?
This year, however, we are of a like mind in most of the top categories, though we part ways considerably further down the list. If you’re looking to take any of our predictions to the bank, stick with Kris. But, you know, a different perspective never hurt anyone.
My best (or worst) guesses after the cut, followed by your collective prediction culled from yesterday’s comment thread.
Best Picture: “Precious”
Best Director: Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “District 9”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
Best Visual Effects: “District 9”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Letters to Father Jacob”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
Meanwhile, you guys differ considerably in some crucial respects. Though “Precious” led when we asked you on the weekend, yesterday you clearly weren’t feeling it as much. “Up in the Air” (a film I’m still not sure has enough ‘oomph’ for the win) leads the Best Picture count, while Gabourey Sidibe trails behind not only Meryl Streep, but Carey Mulligan too. (Only three of you, by the way, are brave enough to predict Streep for “It’s Complicated.”)
If your (and our) predictions are to be believed, Mo’Nique, “Up” and “The Cove” may as well collect their Oscars now, while “Up in the Air” and “The Hurt Locker” should secure comfy wins in the writing categories. Ditto “Nine” in the cinematography and design races, and “Avatar” for its score. I need convincing.
Closer races do exist though — indeed, you guys couldn’t make your minds up for Best Director and Best Film Editing, while Best Foreign Language Film was decided on a single vote. Let’s come back to this in March and see who’s smiling.
Best Picture: “Up in the Air”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” and Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air” (tie)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” (tie)
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “I See In Color” from “Precious”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
69 responses so far
1 11-10-2009 at 9:53 am
kmoore8435 said...
While I really loved the film “Precious,” I felt the direction was the weakest part. Not because it was bad but simply because Daniels’ tried to do too much instead of simply telling the story. Some of the transitions were awkward. The flashback/fantasy sequences were hit or miss, and the placement of some of the music was odd and distracting.
I felt his documentary approach was much more welcomed and needed. I loved the classroom scenes. I loved how he pulled such real performances out of these actors. Had he just held back a few times and not tired to be such a “director” I could have appreciated his work even more.
2 11-10-2009 at 9:54 am
Guy Lodge said...
Kmoore: As I’ve made clear, I’m a fan of neither the film nor the direction. Predictions, not preferences.
3 11-10-2009 at 9:58 am
leonardo said...
I think that the battle between new comers Sibide and Mulligan, gonna make the way so much easier for Meryl Streep and her third oscar for Julie & Julia, not for It’s Complicated. But i got a felling that Alec Baldwin can give a surprise and win for his supporting role for It’s Complicated. The man is so funny, and seems like the heart and soul of the movie. And the academy likes to recognize that kind of supporting roles from time to time. Remember Whoopi Golberg, Cuba Gooding Jr., Diane Wiest , Jack Palance and Kevin Kline, just to name a few.
4 11-10-2009 at 10:04 am
N8 said...
I will be very surprised if “The Hurt Locker” actually WINS cinematography, Guy. Just not “pretty” enough for the Academy.
5 11-10-2009 at 10:12 am
Guy Lodge said...
That crossed my mind. But then I thought of “JFK,” “Mississippi Burning,” even “Slumdog.” The prettiest doesn’t ALWAYS win.
Frankly, I didn’t really know what to go for there. Some obstinate part of me doesn’t believe in “Nine.”
6 11-10-2009 at 10:29 am
adelutza said...
I like how “Up In the Air” is collectively predicted to win , with most people not having actually seen the film. That is as funny as Kris’ last year prediction that Clint Eastwood will win best actor for “Grand Torino”.
Methinks that “Nine” will get more love than it’s predicted here. Based on my own clairvoyance.
7 11-10-2009 at 10:38 am
Marshall1 said...
My few predictions:
Best Pictures: Invictus
Best Director: Jason Reitman
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon
Best Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore
Best Adapted Screenplay: Precious
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Wild guesses+ sentiment votes for me! But personally, I would’ve give the Oscar to Colin Firth, but this is the Oscars!
8 11-10-2009 at 10:48 am
Speaking English said...
***Frankly, I didn’t really know what to go for there. Some obstinate part of me doesn’t believe in “Nine.”***
Bright Star. Best cinematography of the year by far. If not that, then likely The Lovely Bones. Maybe Nine.
I also have to ask a serious question: those predicting “I See in Color” from Precious as Best Original Song, have you actually SEEN the film? Because it could hardly be less recognizable in it. It plays for all of 20 seconds and you don’t even notice it. I can’t see it even being nominated, personally.
9 11-10-2009 at 10:59 am
Guy Lodge said...
Short of Anthony Dod Mantle winning a second for “Antichrist” (yeah, as if), nothing would please me more than to see Greig Fraser win. But that category can be so resistant to newcomers, particularly if the film isn’t a favourite.
I kind of agree with you about the “Precious” song, though. I barely noticed it.
10 11-10-2009 at 11:03 am
red_wine said...
Even I thought Slumdog wasn’t pretty. But a lot of people did. I really read a lot of descriptions saying all the pretty colors will guarantee it a Cinematography win (and after the ceremony) got it the win.
For score, there really is just Up. Ponyo is foreign language. Moon won’t be nominated. There are some others, but nothing very distinguished. But Avatar with its faux-epic score is gonna come and win this. Giacchino is still a newbie (only 5 years in the industry), Horner (though a hack many times) is a titan.
And I predict The Hurt Locker with the utmost cynicism. That’s the bone they will likely throw out to that movie. And it honestly isn’t a great screenplay. I love the movie but the direction made it great. I doubt an animated film will get screenplay. I think they are not even eligible for WGA original screenplay award.
11 11-10-2009 at 11:14 am
Guy Lodge said...
“Giacchino is still a newbie (only 5 years in the industry), Horner (though a hack many times) is a titan.”
I’m not so sure, Red. The last few winners in the category (Kaczmarek, Marianelli, Santaolalla, Rahman) have suggested a move away from the old Hollywood stalwarts.
12 11-10-2009 at 11:22 am
Marshall said...
I really hope that Michael Giachinno wins for his score of “Up.” Let’s not forget that the movie’s most powerful scene would not have made so many cry without his touching tune.
13 11-10-2009 at 11:32 am
SHAAAARK said...
I haven’t seen The White Ribbon, but from all accounts, it’s the kind of great film that never wins the Oscar. I guess that it’s won suggests people aren’t willing to dig deep in Foreign Language, and just go with what has the most online buzz. But the Foreign Language branch of the Academy never goes for the most buzzed film. I’m predicting Baaria, because it sounds middle-of-the-road enough for the Academy, and they’ve shown they love its director.
14 11-10-2009 at 11:41 am
JAB said...
i never posted mine! Maybe I could play tiebreaker?
Best Picture: “Precious”
Best Director: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Best Actor: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
15 11-10-2009 at 11:45 am
A.J said...
I’m not buying this whole Jeff Bridges thing. My money is on Colin Firth.
16 11-10-2009 at 11:46 am
Joey said...
Does anyone else think that the Best Supporting Actor race is slowly becoming the Best Male Villain Award? Javier Bardem then Heath Ledger (who both deserved it, don’t get me wrong) but now people are talking about Christoph Waltz or Stanley Tucci taking the award. I loved Waltz in Inglourious Basterd and I’m sure that Tucci will be his normal amazing self.
17 11-10-2009 at 11:49 am
red_wine said...
Guy the main reason I think Giacchino wont win is because I want him too! ;-)
I even think that Up would make a good winner in Original Screenplay but that is just not happening.
And how can you not predict Avatar for visual effects! Are you being decidedly contrarian. Because if anything, the entire conversation around Avatar pivots around its revolutionary visual effects.
18 11-10-2009 at 11:50 am
red_wine said...
That would be “to”, not “too”. It changes the meaning!
19 11-10-2009 at 11:51 am
Ryan Adams said...
Drink up!
http://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Precious-Kool-Aid.jpg
20 11-10-2009 at 11:59 am
Patryk said...
I would love to say Rosamund Pike for “An Education,” as I feel she stole that film from an outstanding ensemble. In a just world she would at least get a nomination.
21 11-10-2009 at 12:08 pm
Guy Lodge said...
“And how can you not predict Avatar for visual effects! Are you being decidedly contrarian.”
I suppose a prediction that goes so far against the grain is inevitably seen as contrarian, but there is reasoning behind it — principally my baseless hunch that “Avatar” won’t go down well. When it comes to these categories, voters often favour the better-liked film — see the “Golden Compass” vs. “Transformers” upset of 2007.
22 11-10-2009 at 12:22 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Guy ignoring Avatar for visual effects could indeed prove astute. I tried to come up with a reason not to predict it because I have a feeling the motion-capture hybrid aspect could prove just a little too convoluted.
23 11-10-2009 at 12:30 pm
Guy Lodge said...
And … what Kris said.
24 11-10-2009 at 12:30 pm
M.Harris said...
Just a question – is Lee Daniels really a shoe-in for a Best Director nomination?
Now I will come out and say upfront that I didn’t see “Precious.” So for me to judge his directing would be wrong.
I’ve read a few reviews in which critics who have liked the film – called it an “actors piece”(code word for the performances are the best part of the film) – I’ve read another in which a critic really liked the film – in-spite of it’s – at times “ropey” direction.
Even on this site.Most people picked Reitman and Bigelow for the Best Directing nod – even though “Precious” was picked to win Best Pic.
In the reviews that I have read nobody totally trashed his directing – but at the same time with only five slots open for Best Director – and a few people using words like “actors piece” – as crazy as I might sound writing this – you wonder?
25 11-10-2009 at 12:33 pm
Nigel Bridgeman said...
Far too early for predictions for my liking, so here are mine. Disclaimer – I live in Australia and so I never see anything until it’s too late to matter.
Actually, I won’t bother. I’ll just say that I think Woody Harrelson and Melanie Laurent will win the supporting awards. Thankfully I’m a nobody around these parts and so nobody will remember in January when neither is nominated.
26 11-10-2009 at 12:44 pm
Sawyer said...
BP: Invictus
BD: Jason Reitman, Up In The Air
Actor: George Clooney, Up In The Air
Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sup Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus
Sup Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Original: Up
Adapted: Up In The Air
AD: Nine
Cinematography: Nine
Costume: Nine
Editing: Invictus
Makeup: Star Trek
Music: The Princess and the Frog
Sound Editing: Avatar
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Visual Effects: Avatar
Animated: Up
27 11-10-2009 at 12:48 pm
Guy Lodge said...
“Is Lee Daniels really a shoe-in for a Best Director nomination?”
Given his limited directing résumé (only one roundly panned previous feature) and his slightly abrasive nature, I’d hesitate to call him a shoo-in. But if “Precious” remains a frontrunner and its African-American director is snubbed, the media will kick up quite a fuss.
28 11-10-2009 at 1:02 pm
Ryan Adams said...
“But if Precious remains a frontrunner…”
Might be more accurate to say “If people continue to claim Precious is a frontrunner…”
Otherwise that comment begins to look like what FOX News does when it reports “some are saying” when it’s FOX doing the original saying.
29 11-10-2009 at 1:03 pm
m1 said...
Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” and Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air” (tie)
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Peter Sarsgaard, “An Education
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “An Education”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Sherlock Holmes”
Best Cinematography: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Costume Design: “Nine” and “Bright Star” (tie
30 11-10-2009 at 1:04 pm
m1 said...
Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” and Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air” (tie)
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Peter Sarsgaard, “An Education
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “An Education”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Sherlock Holmes”
Best Cinematography: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Costume Design: “Nine” and “Bright Star” (tie)
31 11-10-2009 at 1:07 pm
m1 said...
Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” and Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air” (tie)
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Peter Sarsgaard, “An Education
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “An Education”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Sherlock Holmes”
Best Cinematography: “The Lovely Bones”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Sound Editing: “Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
32 11-10-2009 at 1:12 pm
Chris138 said...
I wouldn’t call “Saving Private Ryan” a pretty film, and that won for cinematography. Anything’s possible for The Hurt Locker winning that category.
Out of all the predictions for nominees, I think the one with the least chance of ever winning is probably Up. I love the film, and is certainly one of my favorite movies of the year, but I just can’t see the Academy awarding it Best Picture, especially if it wins Best Animated Feature.
Precious very well may end up being the Slumdog Millionaire of 2009.
33 11-10-2009 at 1:14 pm
Guy Lodge said...
m1: You’re predicting two ties? Ballsy ;)
34 11-10-2009 at 1:28 pm
Andrew r. said...
Best Picture: Precious-trust me, it lives up to the hype.
Best Director: Lee Daniels for Precious
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman for Invictus
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan for An Education
Best S. Actor: Christopher Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (but I’m terrified that Alfred Molina will win)
Best S. Actress: Mo’nique (I dare you to argue with this one)
O. Screenplay: A Serious Man
A. Screenplay: Precious
Animated Film: Up (but I’d love to see Ponyo or Coraline win)
Foreign Film: France’s A Prophet
Documentary: The Cove (unless Michael Moore gets lucky)
Animated Short: Partly Cloudy
I don’t care about the rest of the categories, in all honesty. Except Best Song, and I don’t know who will win that.
35 11-10-2009 at 1:54 pm
Me. said...
Where the hell did the Jeff Bridges buzz come out from? He’s everywhere out of nowhere.
36 11-10-2009 at 2:19 pm
Guy Lodge said...
It’s not out of nowhere, exactly. There’s been strong word about his performance doing the rounds for several months now.
We first mentioned Oscar possibilities for the performance back in July, even though Fox had set the film for 2010 (a ruse I never quite believed). Bridges has been at the top of my Best Actor list since then … pending confirmation of a 2009 release.
37 11-10-2009 at 2:31 pm
anonymous said...
The 14 pundits at Movie City News picked Meryl Streep as the frontrunner in their Gurus of Gold segment. That should say something as far as pundits predictions go…
38 11-10-2009 at 2:37 pm
Al said...
Kris only got 13 out of 21 awards right?!?!?!?
Last year I was 17 for 21.
39 11-10-2009 at 2:48 pm
billybil said...
Oh Lord – I can see it all now. Another year where I go rabid online about Meryl winning the Oscar. (Damn – I wish her roles this year were more baity!) Is AMPAS really gonna give it to Gabourey Sidibe or are people trying to make the Best Actress race more interesting right now?
40 11-10-2009 at 2:53 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Al: You got 17 out of 21 right in November 2008? If so, hats off to you.
41 11-10-2009 at 3:12 pm
Me. said...
Best Picture: Precious
Best Directing: The Hurt Locker – Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo’Nique – Precious
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay: Precious
Best Original Score: The Lovely Bones
Best Original Song: Precious
Best Art Direction: Nine
Best Cinematography: Bright Star
Best Costume Design: Nine
Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Makeup: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Best Sound Mixing: Nine
Best Sound Effects Editing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
Best Documentary Feature Film: The Cove
And I don’t know about the shorts.
And I know “Up in the Air” will win something. I just don’t know where to put it.
42 11-10-2009 at 3:23 pm
anonymous said...
Sidibe is getting buzz right now because her film just opened. Don’t count on the buzz continuing. And by the way, the academy will not give the Oscar to an upstart with no creditionals. The nomination will be her reward. Streep will take the award.
43 11-10-2009 at 3:23 pm
Nigel Bridgeman said...
I’d like to see something fun and light win for once, just to rock the boat and give everyone something to whinge about for a few years. “It’s Complicated” to win 9 Oscars including Best Picture!
44 11-10-2009 at 3:24 pm
John said...
Yeah, the last 2 years I’ve been 17 for 21.
My predictions mainly stemmed from BAFTA, Technical Guilds, & SAG nods/wins/trends.
45 11-10-2009 at 3:27 pm
Me. said...
John… BAFTA and SAG are AFTER November!!!! These people are saying how much they scored right when they made winner predictions BEFORE the National Board of Review.
So yeah.
46 11-10-2009 at 3:29 pm
Me. said...
And I’m betting Sidibe will win and she will be crying on stage while there’s a standing ovation from the crowd at the Kodak theater.
Not that I’m a fan of Precious, AT ALL. But I wouldn’t mind her winning and right now, she has everything in her favor.
On the other hand, Meryl will be nominated for “Julie & Julia”, which will have no other nominations. It’s a “Devil Wears Prada” type of nomination.
47 11-10-2009 at 3:41 pm
Nigel Bridgeman said...
Is there any buzz at all for Michael Caine in “Harry Brown”? It opens in the UK this week – I’ll probably end up missing it because I fly back to Australia on Saturday, but it looks like a great performance from Caine.
48 11-10-2009 at 3:44 pm
anonymous said...
Sidbe’s nomination will be her reward. Monique will take the only acting honors. Streep cannot lose with her 16th nomiation, momentum, solid career best reviews. Sidbe has buzz at the moment but it will die down as the Oscars approach…
49 11-10-2009 at 4:21 pm
kmoore8435 said...
Lee Daniels will not win Best Director. I wouldn’t be surprised if he were snubbed.
I don’t think Carey Mulligan has a chance in hell at winning since her film has long been forgotten already…well that is unless she wins loads of critics awards and starts getting attention once again.
50 11-10-2009 at 4:23 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Anonymous (comments #37, 42 and 48): Okay, we get the idea — you’re on Team Streep. If you’re hoping that by posting anonymously, people will think your comments come from different people, you may want to vary your tune slightly.
51 11-10-2009 at 4:50 pm
JAB said...
Kris & Guy:
I just looked at the FYC site for Brothers, and apparently Gyllenhaal and Portman are both being campaigned for supporting, with Maguire getting lead. Think that helps any of their chances at nominations?
52 11-10-2009 at 4:51 pm
JAB said...
clicked submit before i was done…
I think it helps JG out a lot, the supporting category is full of mostly “meh” contenders, but I gotta say I think Portman is screeeeeewed. Supporting Actress is LOADED!
53 11-10-2009 at 4:53 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
I meant to update the contenders section, but yeah, that is so. And I hear Maguire is pretty bad in the film, but the other two get some decent notices so maybe it’ll help after all. Something to keep an eye on.
54 11-10-2009 at 4:58 pm
Jim T said...
What if both Gyllenhaals get nominated? It would be cool.
55 11-10-2009 at 4:59 pm
Al said...
Opps, Apologies go out to Guy and Kris. When you said Kris predicted 13 out of 21 I thought you meant in terms of final predictions, not early November predictions. My bad.
56 11-10-2009 at 8:33 pm
charles goodman said...
i really think that adam lambert’s theme song for “2012″ -”time for miracles” has a good shot at a nomination for best orginal song-its briliant for a disaster flick in my opinion. it also has a really sad backstory to the song. it was written by Alain Johannes and his partner Natasha Shneider before Shneider died of cancer in 2008.
57 11-10-2009 at 8:34 pm
daveylow said...
I would really be shocked if Precious won the direction award, considering even those who like the film finds faults in the direction.
I really think it’s too early to call Precious the Best Picture winner. Some other big films have to open.
58 11-10-2009 at 8:38 pm
daveylow said...
I love the way someone has written that An Education has been forgotten already. The film is in limited release. It’s going to be nominated for awards and then more people will see it.
59 11-10-2009 at 8:50 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Yeah, November only, Al. I had a personal best 21/24 at the end of things last year.
60 11-11-2009 at 2:31 am
Kate Winslet said...
I am still not understanding why people don’t seem to understand that Meryl will win best actress in 2010. I don’t care if Oprah throws herself on stage to prevent it, or puts out eight special covers, you are not going to see Meryl denied again on her 16th nomination. Look at the history of the Oscars. Look to another woman named Kate.
Time for tea. Toodles.
61 11-13-2009 at 3:54 pm
Holden said...
This is how I see it…
General Consensus: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker” or Jason Rietman “Up in the Air”
Who Should Win?: While many will say Rietman should win, he simply be credited so early. It’s like saying Nirvana is better than The Beatles or The Who. While Nirvana was new and innovative, they simply didn’t put out enough material to merit such a high rank. Rietman will most certainly be nominated, but I don’t know if he’ll win. Bigelow is in the same boat. She directed a wildly critical smash, and war films often win or are nominated in this category (Saving Private Ryan, Black Hawk Down, Platoon, etc.) But who is Bigelow? Does she have any other notable pieces? She doesn’t have enough for her. Though as a side note, the voters should look at what the directors put out this year instead of the past. I’m rooting for either Rietman or Bigelow.
Who Will Most Likely Up Them? Rob Marshall (Nine) is pretty overrated, but the academy doesn’t at all mind brown nosing. In contrast, I wouldn’t mind if Peter Jackson takes home another statue for directing The Lovely Bones, though I actually believe he’s got a better shot in the Screenplay category.
Who Will Win? Tough question. You can make a case for anyone. If I have to choose one person, it would be Bigelow, but not by much. We still have to see Up in the Air. It could be like Changeling last year. Sure, it gets great festival buzz, but then does mediocre with the critics when it hits stateside.
62 11-13-2009 at 3:54 pm
Holden said...
On directors…
This is how I see it…
General Consensus: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker” or Jason Rietman “Up in the Air”
Who Should Win?: While many will say Rietman should win, he simply be credited so early. It’s like saying Nirvana is better than The Beatles or The Who. While Nirvana was new and innovative, they simply didn’t put out enough material to merit such a high rank. Rietman will most certainly be nominated, but I don’t know if he’ll win. Bigelow is in the same boat. She directed a wildly critical smash, and war films often win or are nominated in this category (Saving Private Ryan, Black Hawk Down, Platoon, etc.) But who is Bigelow? Does she have any other notable pieces? She doesn’t have enough for her. Though as a side note, the voters should look at what the directors put out this year instead of the past. I’m rooting for either Rietman or Bigelow.
Who Will Most Likely Up Them? Rob Marshall (Nine) is pretty overrated, but the academy doesn’t at all mind brown nosing. In contrast, I wouldn’t mind if Peter Jackson takes home another statue for directing The Lovely Bones, though I actually believe he’s got a better shot in the Screenplay category.
Who Will Win? Tough question. You can make a case for anyone. If I have to choose one person, it would be Bigelow, but not by much. We still have to see Up in the Air. It could be like Changeling last year. Sure, it gets great festival buzz, but then does mediocre with the critics when it hits stateside.
63 11-13-2009 at 4:01 pm
Holden said...
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: (This is a tough category, but…) Colin Firth “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan “An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air” (I think this is where Rietman will get his due.)
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “Meet Me On the Equinox” The Twilight Saga: New Moon (for the record, I believe Twilight is crap, but this song is very good.)
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet (France)”
Best Documentary Feature: “Capitalism: A Love Story”
64 11-13-2009 at 4:12 pm
Dennis said...
Picture: Up in the Air
Director: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker”
Actor: George Clooney “Up in the Air”
Actress: Gabourey Sidbe “Precious”
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglorious Basterds”
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Art Direction: Nine
Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Costume Design: Bright Star
Film Editing: Avatar
Make Up: Star Trek
Original Score: Up
Original Song: “All is Love” Where the Wild Things Are
Sound Editing: District 9
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Visual Effects: Avatar
Animated Film: Up
Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
Documentary: Food Inc.
65 11-13-2009 at 4:22 pm
Guy Lodge said...
“But who is Bigelow? Does she have any other notable pieces?”
Yeah, I’d say “Strange Days,” “Near Dark” and “Point Break” are all pretty damn notable. If you don’t know who she is, that’s your loss.
66 11-14-2009 at 6:44 am
Holden said...
I’m sorry, I just didn’t know what other movies she’s done. I hadn’t heard of her until “The Hurt Locker.”
67 11-14-2009 at 6:54 am
Guy Lodge said...
Dig into her past work, then — you’ll be pleasantly surprised. Bigelow has been widely regarded as something of a trailblazer for women in Hollywood since the 1980s.
68 11-14-2009 at 2:12 pm
JR said...
Has anyone seen “The Lovely Bones”? Even from only seeing the trailer, my gut tells me that it could be a serious contender, even in the Year of Precious. The casting is amazing – Ronan, Tucci, Sarandon (if anyone’s read the book, spot-on), Weisz, Imperioli, even Wahlberg. Tucci – taken along with his work in J&J – seems a shoo-in for Supporting. If the Jackson/Walsh team are on top of their formidable game, I’d look out.
69 12-11-2009 at 8:11 pm
Andrew said...
bright star should come close in cinematography, art direction and costume. hopefully a best actress nom, although i wish for BP and director