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*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.
It’s “Avatar” day people! The day some of us have been waiting for! The movie has been hyped for years and if you listen to the critics, James Cameron has delivered. The man has a pretty impeccable box office history and is belatedly coming off the highest grossing film of a generation.
That would be the $921.5 million-grossing, 11 Academy Award-winning “Titanic” for anyone wondering. No matter what he made next, anticipation was going to be huge, but the non-stop chatter about “game-changing” and “brand new viewing experience” has made things reach a fever pitch.
After the trailer debuted, I thought we were looking at an epic fail. I thought the effects looked crappy and the story looked stiff as a brick. I thought no one over the age of 40 would possibly be interested. Now that some people have actually laid eyes on it, it seems I’m in the extreme minority. This sucker is poised to make a lot of money.
The all-time December opening weekend champ is “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” with $86.5 million. “Avatar” would have to open at the very high end of expectations to match that, but with the 3D and IMAX screenings carrying a higher price tag, it’s not unreasonable. I’m thinking $80 million and a nice, healthy run over January until Oscar comes knocking on its door.
“Did You Hear About the Morgans?” attempts to counter-program using the special effect that is Hugh Grant’s ageless charm. Buzz is extremely low as most of the adult date crowd is holding out for “It’s Complicated.” These titles are usually good for $12 million or so, but this is a one-movie marketplace this weekend and I’m thinking more like $8 million.
Limited audiences get their first look at “Crazy Heart,” “Nine” and “The Young Victoria.” Rob Marshall’s musical should boast the highest per-theater average of the three and it better if the Weinstein Company wants any traction heading into awards season.
What do you guys think? Already seen “Avatar?” Was it sold out?
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20 responses so far
1 12-18-2009 at 4:09 pm
Shelby said...
Ruh-Roh…
http://twitter.com/#search?q=avatar%20storm
2 12-18-2009 at 4:14 pm
Jim T said...
Actually, the theater where I watched Avatar had attracted few people. I found it very odd but I know that other theaters (and for good reason) had more people. I really don’t know how ell it went yet at a national (Greece) level.
3 12-18-2009 at 4:14 pm
c.c. said...
Saw it last night at the midnight showing and it was more then 3/4 sold out. The crowd ate it up. I just noticed the chicago imax navy pier is pretty much sold out for the weekend. Only the 1:30 AM shows remain and they seem to be going quickly.
4 12-18-2009 at 4:15 pm
ninja said...
IMO, Avatar would be better off without frontloaded Friday but with Saturday upstick which could point at strong WOM. We`ll see what happens but boxoffice watch will be very interesting this holiday. I`m hoping for minimal drops and loooooooooooooong legs.
5 12-18-2009 at 4:16 pm
c.c. said...
Don’t forget the east coast is getting pummeled with snow. 10 inches or more, so that will certainly hurt BO this weekend.
6 12-18-2009 at 4:23 pm
BJT said...
Nearly sold out yesterday (Thursday) afternoon showing at the local fleapit.
Mainly adult audience – not the kids you’d expect for a straight after school ends programme.
7 12-18-2009 at 4:53 pm
ninja said...
if WOM is strong enough and storm does hit the boxoffice this weekend, Avatar may have a bigger second weekend. Which would be what the movie needs (tough to pull off with Holmes competition but you never know).
8 12-18-2009 at 6:51 pm
Glenn said...
If ever an example was perfect for “shouldn’t use adjusted figures” then “Titanic” is it. No way in hell would that or any movie make $921million in today’s landscape, which makes it all the more impressive that movies like “The Dark Knight” and “Transformers 2″ made over $400mil.
9 12-18-2009 at 7:05 pm
Chad Hartigan said...
That’s exactly why we use adjusted figures. You’re right, there’s no way a film can perform like Titanic did today but using unadjusted numbers gives the impression that The Dark Knight almost did.
10 12-18-2009 at 7:57 pm
al b. said...
I live in Columbus OH, and BOTH IMAX screens are sold out thru Saturday!
The snow storm here is ridiculous, but I fought my way thru it… I mean, c’mon, I’m not missing AVATAR because of some dumb snow!
11 12-18-2009 at 8:37 pm
Michael said...
snow storm hit Richmond, VA as well but Avatar was still sold out at my showing and the movie was amazing! I am seeing it again on I-Max on Monday!
12 12-18-2009 at 9:02 pm
Al said...
Avatar is nothing more than straight up effects. Do they look absolutely amazing? yes. But is there anything in the story? No. Complex or even simple emotional investment? No. Will people need to watch this film in 10 years once more movies look this way? No.
Skip it.
13 12-19-2009 at 3:26 am
Pauley said...
I’m in Seoul and every session was sold out thursday through today, I only got a ticket today because some guy was selling his.
I thought it was the shit. One of the most beautiful films I’ve seen in a long time. Incredible 3-d and an engrossing story – can’t really beat that. Will probably see it a couple more times in 3-d to really process the whole thing.
14 12-19-2009 at 11:13 am
Gioconda said...
Big disappointment imo.
15 12-19-2009 at 11:28 am
Kevin said...
Avatar was more than just straight up effects, Al.
It was a FUN movie.
The silly elements of the story added to the enjoyment factor.
The evil marine? He was priceless.
16 12-19-2009 at 4:45 pm
Bob McBob said...
Avatar was A-maze-ing!
17 12-20-2009 at 2:21 am
Katie said...
Saw it last night in a sold out IMAX cinema (UK).
I’m AMAZED at the critical praise. Good effects but the story? Awful.
Really did not enjoy it at all and if it gets Best Picture I shall weep.
18 12-20-2009 at 8:54 am
KBJr. said...
I thought it was a wonderful film. I agree the story was slightly pedestrian, but it was appealing enough that I was invested in the film the entire 2 hours and 40 minutes…and have done nothing but think about since I saw it last night. I say this will be the beneficiary of strong WOM.
19 12-20-2009 at 11:28 am
Joel said...
I can’t believe the hatred of the story, which I thought was a great backbone to the literally perfect visual effects work that is unequaled by anything else in the field. Absolutely nothing even comes close.
THIS is why trailers should now be outlawed. Expectations are a bitch.
20 12-21-2009 at 11:34 am
Josh said...
Where do you get the $921 million figure from? Titanic made $600 million domestically and $1.84 billion in its worldwide total.