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As a few commenters have been discussing elsewhere, it seems that some supposedly attentive Oscar bloggers figure 2008 to be a weak year for the lead actress race. We’ve been calling it the most competitive derby in years around these parts for quite a while now, so the notion that anyone would find it to be thin is perplexing to say the least.
Well, I’m happy today to see that Pete Hammond is on our bandwagon, writing the following at his Notes on a Season blog:
This year, however, it is already clear that the race, for all intents and purposes, is backloaded with the most imposing and competitive list of genuine best actress possibilities in many years.
A tsunami is coming, and [Melissa] Leo and [Penélope] Cruz are getting out of the way by taking their best shot now, hoping it’s enough to stay alive when the big storm of contenders hits shore.
He then launches into a laundry list of contenders, all of them thoroughly covered before.
We’re currently banking on Kristin Scott Thomas, Angelina Jolie, Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep around these parts. Those are four slots that seem secure. After that, it’s a toss-up between Anne Hathaway, Melissa Leo, Penélope Cruz, Michelle Williams and Sally Hawkins in the indie sector. If it’s not an indie performance the AMPAS wants to recognize, they’ll have high-budget fare to choose from in Cate Blanchett and Nicole Kidman.
I’m sticking with Kidman for now. Makes as much sense as any other contender.
Have your say. Who are you predicting for Best Actress right now?
35 responses so far
1 10-07-2008 at 10:12 am
loveman113 said...
You have Kate Winslet listed twice and i hope one of those meant to be Meryl Streep. I assume so.
I am hoping that Cate Blanchett will grab nomination for Benjamin Button, but i absolute loved Melissa Leo in Frozen River.
Not sure about Kristin Scott Thomas… in a foreign film, after last years La Vie En Rose.
FYC On a different note, would love to see Anjelica Huston get a Supporting Actress nod for Choke. Loved her in it!!
2 10-07-2008 at 10:15 am
Tim said...
You said Kate Winslet twice. I’m assuming you meant Meryl Streep? I’m guessing…
Kate Winslet
Meryl Streep
Kristin Scott Thomas
Cate Blanchett
Angelina Jolie or Anne Hathaway(depending on who campaigns better)
3 10-07-2008 at 10:15 am
JAB said...
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Anne Hathaway, Rachel getting married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
and Kate Winslet wins for Revolutionary Road
4 10-07-2008 at 10:34 am
alynch said...
Isn’t Penelope Cruz supporting? She’s only in half the movie.
5 10-07-2008 at 10:34 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Slip of the tongue, haha, though I guess she IS competing against herself this year after all. Should say Jolie at least once. Amended, thanks.
6 10-07-2008 at 10:34 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Make that Streep. Should say “Streep.” Boy, I need more coffee.
7 10-07-2008 at 10:35 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
alynch: Cruz is a lead in Elegy. Patricia Clarkson is supporting.
8 10-07-2008 at 10:49 am
Liz said...
Call me totally dim, but can someone tell me who is in that picture?
Also, is Cate Blanchett definitely going lead? It appears that way from the previews, but I’m just looking for confirmation.
9 10-07-2008 at 10:54 am
Rex said...
Right now I think Kristin is in and Jolie is out.
10 10-07-2008 at 10:56 am
Patrick said...
I don’t think Kate Winslet is safe by any means. Sight unseen, many said that about her in All The King’s Men. I hope she gets nominated, but if I were betting right now I’d say
Thomas
Jolie
Hathaway
Streep
Leo
That would be the perfect balance between Indie and star. I think at least one of the performances in everyone’s top 10 will tank between now and then.
11 10-07-2008 at 11:03 am
Ivan said...
For now
Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married ( for me seems a lock)
Melissa Leo/Frozen River
Kristin Scott Thomas/I´ve Loved You So Long (another lock)
Meryl Streep/Doubt
Kate Winslet/The Reader
back ups
Kate Beckinsale/Nothing But the Truth
Sally Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie /Changeling
Nicole Kidman/Australia
Kate Winslet/Revolutionary Road
12 10-07-2008 at 11:12 am
N8 said...
Call me crazy, but I don’t think Meryl is a secure as most people seem to think she is. If the movie doesn’t do well, even the fact that she’s Meryl may not be enough to land a nomination. I’m thinkng:
Hathaway
Winslet
Jolie
Hawkins
Thomas
with Streep sitting in my sixth slot.
13 10-07-2008 at 11:15 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Liz: Beckinsale
14 10-07-2008 at 12:32 pm
McGuff said...
Kris mentioned her in his Top 10 Underestimated Performances, but I think Michelle Williams is the real darkhorse in this race. We haven’t heard a ton about “Wendy and Lucy” since Cannes, but I think it’s a performance that could take us by storm. It seems to me in a race like this, where we have such a grasp on 7-8 contenders, there almost has to be a blindsiding performance that knocks us out and lands a nomination. And, as important as it is that Heath Ledger land his supporting actor nomination, it would be equally romantic (in a Shakespearean way) if they both were.
That said, my 5:
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Kristen Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep, Doubt
15 10-07-2008 at 1:20 pm
Aaron said...
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Kristin Scott-Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Sadly–I’m the least confident about Jolie. I feel like she might be left off the list again this year…but I’m still keeping her in.
I feel like Hathaway is in—it’s a career changing performance (e.g. Charlize Theron, Halle Berry, Reese Witherspoon, etc..) Scott-Thomas is solid. I don’t know if she’ll win. Streep and Winslet are good bets.
I think if Australia really turns out to be the massive, heart-wrenching epic depicted in the previews–Kidman has a definite shot at a Best Actress nomination.
I have a feeling Leo will be left off. I think the category is just simply too crowded. But we’ll see…Williams is DEFINITELY a dark horse. I truthfully know very little about the movie.
And can someone possibly clear this up—I’ve heard rumors that Winslet could go supporting for The Reader–is that rumor founded?
16 10-07-2008 at 1:34 pm
M.Harris said...
My picks…
Kate Winslet…because she’s a hell of a talent and she’s due.
Melissa Leo…because their always seems to be a dark horse/indie nomination.
Angelina Jolie…I’ve heard a lot of good about her performance.
Meryl Streep…because she’s Meryl Streep
Kristin Scott Thomas…like Jolie and Leo another seen commodity.
17 10-07-2008 at 1:44 pm
Jim said...
Kristin Scott Thomas/I´ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep/Doubt
Kate Winslet/The Reader
Angelina Jolie /Changeling
Nicole Kidman/Australia
I really don’t understand this. If the Academy wants to honour not American (or British actors, or British playing in French movies) why don’t they do it more often? I mean, does it just happen that Americans or British give better performances or does it take a lot for a French guy for example to be taken noticed? And why?
18 10-07-2008 at 1:47 pm
Jamie said...
In the book Winslet’s character could definitely be pushed as supporting (not the worst case of category fraud we’ve seen) but the book benefits from having the story told from Fiennes’s character’s point of view. She would be given much more screen time in the movie and make it more difficult to not be considered lead.
19 10-07-2008 at 2:56 pm
Patrick said...
STREEP
Scott-Thomas
Winslet
Hathaway
Leo
20 10-07-2008 at 4:07 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Right now, I’d say only Scott-Thomas is conclusively ‘in’ to me, with Winslet the most likely of the unseen.
I’d round out my five with Streep, Hawkins and Michelle Williams.
I think Jolie is going to fade. The post-Cannes backlash is already stronger than I’d have expected.
21 10-07-2008 at 5:09 pm
Robert said...
How can Hathaway, Scott Thomas AND Leo make it if ONE studio is handling all three?
22 10-07-2008 at 5:12 pm
Barry said...
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
23 10-07-2008 at 7:16 pm
Marvin said...
Blanchett will get in.
24 10-08-2008 at 4:49 am
Mad Hatter said...
I do not understand AMPAS’s rule that no actor can be nominated twice in the same category in the same year.
Members are supposed to acknowledge outstanding performances, and it is not uncommon the same actor delivering in separate films.
Someone please enlighten me.
25 10-08-2008 at 5:35 am
Joaquin said...
Blanchett has a lot of support within AMPAS, and we saw that with the double-nod last year, especially when her performance in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” beat out potential nominees like Angelina Jolie, Tang Wei, Nikki Blonsky, Amy Adams, et al.
But I do agree that this race is unusually tight this early (some films might bomb, but we still get a crowded slate). I’d say Blanchett is still a huge possible spoiler should she go lead (and a shoo-in should the performance go supporting). Kirstin Scott-Thomas, Meryl Streep, Angelina Jolie and Kate Winslet are all pretty strong right now, I agree. That last spot is hard.
26 10-08-2008 at 6:24 am
Kate said...
For me:
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
27 10-08-2008 at 9:48 am
AJ said...
I think it’s going to be very similar to last year’s best picture race. Where there were a number of films that could’ve made it in the top five but the closer it got to the ceremony the winner was painfully obvious.
28 10-08-2008 at 11:45 am
Dean Treadway said...
I see Kate Winslet as a lock, but I think she’ll be recognized for THE READER rather than REVOLUTIONARY ROAD (which I have a sneaking suspicion is going to land with a thud). Anne Hathaway seems to be another lock–she’ll be inducted into the pantheon of truly reliable actresses this year. Unlike most on this site, I also see Sally Hawkins as a guaranteed nominee for HAPPY-GO-LUCKY; it’s a Mike Leigh movie, the Academy has a thing for his films, actors LOOOVE Leigh, and she won the Silver Bear at Berlin and the film is getting raves after its NYFF showing.
That said, we have two more slots. I would never count Streep out of the running, but I think this is the only nomination DOUBT is going to recieve (maybe an adapted screenplay nod, too).
And then I’d have to give the final slot to Jolie, although both of these movies look highly overwrought. If I had my druthers, I’d cite Williams for her low-key turn in WENDY AND LUCY, or a REAL dark horse, Cantinca Utaru in THE FALL.
But those would be inclusions in a perfect world.
29 10-08-2008 at 12:12 pm
Aaron said...
Blanchett is definitely possible. I remember watching the nomination announcements for the Critics Choice Awards last year and seeing her name pop up for Best Actress for Elizabeth-The Golden Age—right then I knew she would make it to the Oscars.
She has lots–LOTS–of support.
30 10-08-2008 at 12:30 pm
Dean Treadway said...
I think BENJAMIN BUTTON is going to fall into the patterns that Fincher has set up for himself. He seems to do one popcorn movie, followed by one critical success. Witness:
ALIEN 3 (popcorn) followed by SEVEN (critical success)
THE GAME followed by FIGHT CLUB
THE PANIC ROOM followed by ZODIAC
BENJAMIN BUTTON followed by ????
I am going out on a limb in predicting that BENJAMIN BUTTON only secures some technical nods. Blachette can take a break from going to the Oscars this year, I think.
31 10-08-2008 at 12:55 pm
McGuff said...
Dean, that’s assuming, of course, that you found ZODIAC to be a critical success. It was in some circles, but it hardly promises the long-term resonance of SEVEN or FIGHT CLUB. Personally, I found the movie to be overwrought and far too slow and long, with Robert Downey Jr. as the film’s saving grace. I’ve hard that logic followed with Fincher’s work before, and I just think it’s an oversimplification of his work.
However, with that said, I think we need to realize the guy that directs SEVEN and FIGHT CLUB is a threat with every movie he enters into the canon. So while I didn’t love last year’s output, Benjamin Button is one of my most anticipated films of the year.
32 10-08-2008 at 1:14 pm
Dean Treadway said...
Film Comment, the most highly esteemed and well-informed, well-written film magazine in America, if not the world, polled its critics and critics around the world last year, and emerged with the top three movies of the year (from all around the world, mind you). They were: There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men, and Zodiac. Sorry you didn’t have the patience for it–it was indeed a challenging movie (especially since it lacks an ending, as the case was never solved, and it has a daringly long second act, as the case itself did). However, third on the Film Comment list? I’d count that as an unqualified critical success. It certainly wasn’t a popcorn movie, that’s for sure.
33 10-08-2008 at 4:41 pm
Eunice said...
My top five would have to be:
Meryl Streep- I have a feeling she’ll deliver in Doubt, and I don’t have doubts (no pun intended) about Miramax pushing for this movie come December. Isn’t it amazing that we can’t just snub her because of her Oscar nom history? However, I’m constantly frustrated with the Academy since they seem to be stuck with ‘Sophie’s Choice’ and can’t seem to appreciate Streep’s consistency in excellence.
Kate Winslet and Cate Blanchett: Because of the Oscar pedrigree and the films they’re going to find themselves in. Also, it’s not like consecutive noms (Blanchett’s possible case) are unheard of.
Kristin Scott Thomas: a case of the Academy handing it to someone who’s been toiling for so long and doing good work
Angelina Jolie: No matter what you say, it doesn’t take away the fact that Clint Eastwood and the Oscars are like best friends. He’s given his actors, eg. Swank and Streep, Oscar noms in movies he directed, and he’s won the gold more than once.
my back-ups include:
Kidman, Australia
Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Williams, Wendy and Lucy
I have a feeling the Academy might vote mainstream actresses. Why? To salvage ratings and to get people interested in the whole thing again. But that’s just my opinion.
34 10-09-2008 at 5:06 pm
Keith Schultz said...
Streep, Scott Thomas, Hathaway. That sounds good.
But I’m going out on a limb and I hope the Academy does as well to recognize an absolutely overlooked performance this year by an Oscar veteran: FRANCES McDORMAN in “Burn After Reading” gives a complex, difficult performance. She actually makes comedy seem easy . . . and as any actor can tell you, “tragedy is easy, it’s comedy that’s difficult”. I thought her performance was fresh, revealing, and spot-on brilliant (think Judy Davis from “The Ref” – another overlooked comedic performance – and you’ll understand what I mean.
Is there anybody else out there who will rally round this wonderful actress for deliverying such a great performance? It’s one I can watch again and again and thoroughly enjoy all the nuances she brings to the role.
35 10-10-2008 at 12:17 pm
John Foote said...
It is ythe year of Meryl Streep.