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With rumors that “The Road” may be bumped to 2009, (not Harvey Weinstein’s choice of release year) and “The Soloist” already moving on, along with the rumblings that “Frost/ Nixon” does indeed lack that edge I wrote about not so long ago, one can feel the Oscar race shifting day to day. Even “Changeling,” once thought to have a decent shot at Best Picture and Best Director nominations, is now looking like a maybe in the race, as 2008 and continues to confound audiences and critics.
2008 has been a rather weak year at the movies with only “Stop Loss,” WALL-E,” “Iron Man” and best of all, “The Dark Knight” making much of an impact before the Toronto International Film Festival. When that 10-day event did not really produce a frontrunner as it has in years past, all eyes turned to New York and London. Eastwood’s film received decidedly mixed reviews out of New York while “Che” continued to struggle with the length of the picture. In London, Ron Howard’s political work, “Frost/ Nixon” has not been knocking the critics out as hoped.
I’ve been worried about the film for some time. But the screenplay is based on an award-winning play, Frank Langella is giving the performance that won him accolades on Broadway, but hey, in my view, Howard just isn’t the right director for this sort of film. Give it to Sidney Lumet who, in his 80s, has more edge to his work than Howard. It’s not that he is a terrible director. On the contrary, he has made some very good films, the criminally under valued “The Missing” among them, but a picture like this needs the very things he lacks as a director.
So where are we in terms of the Oscar race now, if these films are indeed falling off the radar (the jury is still admittedly out on “Frost”)? What if the remaining releases are not very good at all and the Oscar race is saddled with an array of mediocre films, which has not happened for many, many years? In fact, the last time I can think of a slew of weak films making up Oscar’s major line-up was 1968, when curiously, “2001: A Space Odyssey” and “Planet of the Apes” were left off the list, shunned for their sci-fi brilliance.
At this writing we still have “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Doubt,” “Revolutionary Road,” “Milk,” “Gran Torino,” “Che” (I hope), “Australia,” “The Wrestler” and “Defiance” among the films that are generating the year’s remaining Oscar buzz. I think it is safe to say the pickings have become mighty slim, and after last year’s bounty of great films, including one or even three genuine masterpieces, 2008 has been a major let-down for me.
By this time last year I had seen “Into the Wild” (royally screwed by the Academy for nominations across the board), “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (a masterwork on every level), “Juno” (which took TIFF 2007 by storm), “Michael Clayton,” “Atonement” and “No Country for Old Men,” four of them eventual nominees for Best Picture. Currently, “The Dark Knight” is a potential nominee in the big race, its chances getting stronger each time a film disappoints or gets out of the way. That is saying something.
Is anyone else out there feeling the same about the 2008 Oscar race?
28 responses so far
1 10-19-2008 at 9:19 am
Bing147 said...
Agree with most everything you said, even about 1968, lol. I mean, of the best picture nominees, Romeo and Juliet is a fine adaptation, The Lion in Winter is amazing and Rachel Rachel has a great lead performance but… I dunno. Any of those films besides Lion in Winter over 2001, Planet of the Apes, Once Upon a Time in the West (My #5 all time), The Producers… I dunno.
2 10-19-2008 at 9:26 am
Joseph said...
It’s a crazy time. I’m wondering if this means gold for David Fincher, which I don’t have a problem with. (It would make up for Zodiac last year which deserved much more)
3 10-19-2008 at 10:11 am
JAB said...
i think Dark Knight’s chances are looking better and better, and maybe just the fact that we already got such a monumental film this year, our view of anything else coming after is tarnished. This might just be Dark Knight’s Year. I hope so!
4 10-19-2008 at 10:12 am
mack said...
Time to scratch Frost/Nixon off your best pic list Kris. You were just blinded by the Oscar/Award pedigree of the players…. just as Sasha was with CWW and Tom with Dreamgirls!
5 10-19-2008 at 10:12 am
Guy Lodge said...
No mention of “Slumdog Millionaire?”
I also have a feeling this isn’t going to be a vintage year. But there could be an upside to this thinning of the field — smaller and/or quirkier films like “Slumdog” or “The Wrestler” (or maybe even “Happy-Go-Lucky”) have more of a shot now, which is no bad thing.
6 10-19-2008 at 10:18 am
sheila said...
Well, this same thing gets said almost every year–that the pickings are slim, ad nauseum. Although last year did indeed have a few legitimate candidates for greatness — No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. I don’t think Into the Wild, while good, was even in the same league as those two. The Dark Knight, while elevated a bit by Ledger’s performance, is hardly a great movie. I do think the best is yet to be, though. Benjamin Button looks legitimate. Revolutionary Road looks extremely promising, if only for what look to be exceptional performances. Che and Milk both look to be like more than worthwhile endeavors as well as the kind of biographical films we need to be seeing right now. Doubt looks promising, again from the performance standpoint. The Wrestler contains an extraordinary central performance and who knows what Gran Torino will be — Eastwood can never be counted out. Personally, I don’t think it’s safe to write this season off as “weak” by any means.
7 10-19-2008 at 11:22 am
Diego said...
We can´t say that 2008 has been a major let-down year! We still have a lot of movies that are potential nominee…
I still hope Wall-e in the Best Motion Picture category…and Changeling…jaja
8 10-19-2008 at 11:27 am
Diego said...
I´m desagree and is not true that Changeling is receiving terrible reviews. May be only is not the best Eastwood movie or what we expected…
9 10-19-2008 at 11:48 am
Roger said...
My hopes are on Defiance… And maybe Australia become the Epic they want it to be… Though I Doubt it… Anyway, there is still a chance that this is a great year… They just come late… :D Defiance will kick ass though…
10 10-19-2008 at 12:22 pm
Speaking English said...
Yeah, stuff like this is said almost every year, and it’s really not fair t make that judgment until we’ve actually seen the entire year’s crop. I’m going to hold out on speaking until January, because as of right now there are still a lot of films yet to be released that look fantastic.
And if this year does indeed turn out to be weak, with a selected few great great films, all the better I say. Then we’ll go back to the days when single films would sweep the Oscars with 7, 8, 9 wins. I’m tired of the past 3 years and the idea of “spreading the wealth”; time to get back to the good-ol’-fashioned grand sweep! And “Ben Button” looks like the film to do that.
11 10-19-2008 at 12:42 pm
The InSneider said...
STOP LOSS was a mess. I’ve never seen a director fall from grace like that. Boys Don’t Cry. Brilliant in 99. Then Kim Peirce lives off its goodwill for 9 years only to return with THAT? C’mon, John!
12 10-19-2008 at 2:18 pm
Casey said...
i think the slim pickings could also benefit the oscars by shielding out some of the very “meh” films that people get over excited about and shower with praise… Babel, Crash, Dreamgirls…
The Soloist? Frost/Nixon? Changeling? maybe
13 10-19-2008 at 2:36 pm
John Foote said...
I liked Stop-Loss – it to me displayed the chaotic lives of those young men and women coming back damaged, forever –how can you emerge from chaoes and hell without bringing it with you, which is what Pierce brought to the film…sorry, I liked it…very much — and for the record, I do not think anywhere in the article did I state that “Changeling” is getting “terrible reviews” — nope, I know I did not because though some reviews are disappointing, they are hardly terrible — and finally, I have not, and do not believe I do, write 2008 off, but I do believe and wrote that the pickings are getting mighty slim.
14 10-19-2008 at 5:47 pm
Adrianna said...
I’d agree that expectations from earlier in the year might be confounded (although I still hope that “Benjamin Button”, “Milk”, and “Australia” are going to be really good).
If the expected performers don’t perform, and then it’s considered a “weak” year, maybe we’ll get surprises, like nominees from genre films, smaller films, maybe even comedies (!!), or even a foreign film. That’s okay by me.
Two gems of movies came out early in the year, “In Bruges” and “Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day”. “Pettigrew” should be in the running for technicals, adaptation, or maybe even acting. (Amy Adams, Frances McDormand).
“In Bruges” I think would be a perfectly acceptable Best Picture nominee, with screenplay, actor, supporing actor, etc. Farrell, Gleeson, and Fiennes are wonderful in this black tragi-comedy.
15 10-19-2008 at 7:01 pm
Kid said...
I don’t think its fair to write off Changeling and Frost/ Nixon yet, even though some reviews were bad I find them still both promising.
I doubt this year will end out with bad nominees many of the films that aren’t out yet look really promising.
16 10-19-2008 at 7:38 pm
Kokushi said...
I liked stop-loss but In Bruges The bank job, Hellboy II, The Incredible Hulk, Tropic Thunder, Transsiberian were better.
17 10-19-2008 at 10:09 pm
Cliff said...
Hm. It looks as though the strike (and the months leading up to it) may really have had some bearing on film production.
18 10-20-2008 at 4:21 am
Dan said...
Quasi-spoiler alert below:
I think the Dark Knight is emerging as the clear front runner favorite. Although I would say Revolutionary Road also has a real good shot. Historical story about a relationship going bad (think Ordinary People-esque) with two great actors and an Oscar winning director behind it an it also has a tragic ending.
I think its a two horse race for the prize between TDK and RR.
19 10-20-2008 at 4:25 am
Joaquin said...
Hmm. The year IS producing less and less films that are ripe for Oscar. The loss of “The Road” and “The Soloist” just drops two big horses from the race, and the lackluster reviews that have been greeting current releases like “Changeling” and “Frost/Nixon” are just disappointing. “Rachel Getting Married” seems to be doing okay, though.
2007 was a great year, indeed, especially because Best Picture was so out in the open that as many as ten films would be deserving had it been in a weak year like this one (so far). Maybe a late-comer like “Juno” might pop up, but the chances are getting smaller and smaller as we enter November.
On a personal note: From the lack of buzz for the hyped films, I hope “Wall-E” will somehow make it big in the end. I can’t forget the sheer beauty of Pixar’s latest marvel, and I hope AMPAS doesn’t as well.
20 10-20-2008 at 5:00 am
Jonathan Spuij said...
Well if Clint, Allen, Fincher and Howard get nominated for BP it’s hardly a poor year. Anyhow, there’s one movie I remembered the other day. Funny Games U.S. Even though it’s a remake, it’s still brilliant and boosts some great performances too.
I think all of this is very positive for TDK’s chances. And Stop-Loss is overrated, if only a little. It’s a nice film that purveys it’s strong message but was a crappy mess in execution.
21 10-20-2008 at 6:32 am
M.Harris said...
I think a hell of a lot is hinging on two or three films to be released later this
season.With “Frost/Nixon” apparently not blowing critics away and the same to be said about “Changeling” it appears that “Revolutionary Road” “Milk” and “Benjamin Button” have the majority of the Academy hopes and also the hopes of us film fans riding on these movies to make this a decent year for film.As it stands now it’s possible that one of those films like “Slumdog Millionaire” “The Wrestler” or “Rachel Getting Married” could crash the Oscar party with the year not being that strong so far.Lets keep our fingers crossed and hope that at least two of those former three that I mentioned live up to expectations.(IMO) TDK has a good shot at being nominated.
22 10-20-2008 at 7:17 am
Guy Lodge said...
“As it stands now it’s possible that one of those films like “Slumdog Millionaire†“The Wrestler†or “Rachel Getting Married†could crash the Oscar party with the year not being that strong so far.”
Maybe more than one? I think that, given the comparative lack of big studio fodder there’s a chance a couple of indies could crop up, like in the 1996 race, where “Fargo,” “Secrets and Lies” and “Shine” all got a look-in.
I can’t see “Rachel Getting Married” as a Best Pic contender though — for me, it’s simply not good enough.
23 10-20-2008 at 7:31 am
M.Harris said...
Good point…yeah it could be more than one.I wouldn’t bet against it.
24 10-20-2008 at 8:02 am
John Foote said...
Agree with Guy about “Rachel Getting Married”. Great performance from Hathaway, redefines her an an actress, but not a brilliant enough film for best pic nod, then again they nominated “Ghost”…right? In the perfect world ‘Che” all four beautiful hours of it would be nominated for best picture. and I still do not discount “Doubt” — going to be a wild ride this year is it not??
25 10-20-2008 at 1:06 pm
Earl said...
Ok so now that you call this a weak year, can we re-open the reality that the Dark Knight is going to make it on the list. Frankly there are others like In Bruges that I bet would make it with a bit of a campaign. There are two solid acting nominations that it could get if it had a campaign. I would also toss in Wall-E, The Wrestler if gets a Best Actor nomination and Pineapple Express.
26 10-20-2008 at 3:47 pm
Zan said...
About Stop-Loss, I’d rate it around a C/C+. People need to learn to put personal preference aside somewhat when evaluating movies on a critical scale.
The film reeks of liberal war criticisms left and right. It’s another basic critique on the foreign policies of the country by using its central character to convey the injustices of the current military system. Without going further into it, I’ll just suffice it to say that it feels soapbox-ish and overcooked. I like the premise though, as it twists and turns through the life of a lead character and how everything globally impacts everyone individually.
Ryan Phillippe follows up his fantastic turn in Breach with a plausible and well-developed performance here, masquerading with a thick Texas twang and a semi-unkempt, semi-rebellious nature.
Channing Tatum should stick to modeling or a Step Up TV series. His viability as a soldier dealing with his own tribulations is questionable, and at times he struggles with the simplest of characterizations like the accent and the emotions.
The performances from Phillippe, Gordon-Levitt, and even Abbie Cornish are strong, but they aren’t enough of a saving grace to rescue the film from being a political critique that fails to deliver in the end. The finale is bogged down by its own idealism and allegorical imbalance. I don’t suggest watching it unless you are very leftist or you have a thing for Phillippe.
27 10-21-2008 at 5:33 am
John Foote said...
Zanm, I could not care less about politics, with Stop Loss what moved me was the impact of the war on these young men and women, the fact that the US did not learn their lesson with Viet Nam being tragic, being able to railroad these young men BACK to action, and the overall sense of helplessness the Phillipe killer must feel — I liked it, so shoot me.
28 10-21-2008 at 8:33 am
Sam said...
I just saw the trailer for “Defiance”, and i just wonder is people underestimating the potential for oscar of this movie? It IS about world war 2, but instead of being victimized, the Jewish people are fighting back!