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I hadn’t realized I’d let my predictions linger, unattended, since November — I revised them in my head and guess I thought that would somehow magically appear on the site. Anyway, I thought it best to do some cobweb-clearing before the PGA announcement later today (for the record, I’m going with “Button,” “Knight” “Milk,” “Slumdog” and “WALL-E”) sends the guessing game into a new dimension. You can find my revised nomination predictions here.
I’m still playing with some quirky, no doubt foolhardy, notions, but I like to keep things fun before the Guilds force us to get serious. Many categories still look like a complete crap-shoot to me: in the confounding Best Actress race, for example, I’m experimenting with a Kate Winslet snub, while dipping (reluctantly) into the Angelina Jolie pool for the first time. It doesn’t feel good.
In the top race, I’m still banking on “WALL-E” leapfrogging “The Dark Knight” as the populist choice, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see both in there. I’m happy with four of my Best Picture runners, but couldn’t settle on a fifth: “Revolutionary Road” is freezing over, “Frost/Nixon” has ticked all the boxes but doesn’t seem to be anyone’s favourite, and the other most-mentioned contenders are a pretty passionless bunch too. Instead of flipping a coin between them, I decided to go a little crazy and try “Happy-Go-Lucky” on for size.
Below the cut, for the hell of it, some winner picks to accompany Kris’s last week. In the top race, I’ve moved on from my earlier prediction of a “Milk” victory (seeing the film helps sometimes), but something still doesn’t feel right about “Slumdog Millionaire” to me — it seems like the kind of film that would benefit from going into the Oscar race as an underdog rather than the favourite. I honestly have no idea, so I’ll take that as an excuse to go mental again until I get a clearer sign.
Best Picture: “WALL-E”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Best Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Original Screenplay: “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Cinematography: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Music – Original Score: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button””
Best Music – Original Song: “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
Best Visual Effects: “Iron Man”
Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
Best Documentary Feature: “Blessed is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Everlasting Moments”
10 responses so far
1 1-05-2009 at 4:45 am
Michael Parsons said...
Gotta love these crazy predictions (although would love The Dark Knight up for pic)
Loving the Happy-Go-Lucky love as well. Rock on!
2 1-05-2009 at 4:45 am
Casey F. said...
your PGA predictions actually mirror my current top 5. i still need to see a couple big’uns but that would be an extremely satisfying final 5. Wall*E is currently my 5 but that would be an unforgettable moment
3 1-05-2009 at 6:41 am
Glenn said...
If “Wall-E” gets nominated for BP then I honestly think all bets are off. Wouldn’t that be amazing, whether you’re a fan of the film or not.
4 1-05-2009 at 6:43 am
Jonathan Spuij said...
Except for the Best Pic choice the rest seems not too far fetched.
5 1-05-2009 at 7:06 am
Guy Lodge said...
Glenn: I agree. Getting the nomination is a major hurdle to clear first, but should it make the cut, I’m starting to think it’s the only film with a sufficient mix of popularity and critical credibility to take on “Slumdog.” (”Button” just doesn’t feel like a winner to me. Maybe a decade ago, but not now.)
I’m just putting the thought out there. It’s a weird year.
6 1-05-2009 at 7:08 am
Guy Lodge said...
Before any “Dark Knight” defenders attack me, I recognise that it ticks the ‘popularity’ and ‘critical credibility’ boxes too, but I can’t see it winning.
7 1-05-2009 at 7:25 am
John said...
Interesting group of predictions. But “A Christmas Tale” isn’t on the 2008 Academy reminder list…not sure why.
8 1-05-2009 at 7:26 am
Hardy said...
DiCaprio, but no Winslet?
9 1-05-2009 at 7:49 am
Ben M. said...
I’m pretty sure Wall-E is ineligible for the PGA (I believe the WGA as well) as I remember reading the PGA rules last year and they adopted the globes thing that when they added a animation category in 05 animated pictures must only compete there and can’t compete for BP the way they can at the Oscars.
John, I think A Christmas Tale isn’t included cause I know here in New York it is also available on pay-per-view TV and was so either on the release date or within a week or so after which makes it ineligible for Oscars (Paranoid Park did the same thing, and I didn’t see it on the reminder list either).
10 1-05-2009 at 9:17 am
Al said...
I agree with Glenn and Guy. If Wall-E gets a Best Pic nomination, then it could win it. Oddly, the nomination might be harder to get than the win.