OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?

Posted by Kristopher Tapley · 10:51 am · February 23rd, 2009

Ewan McGregor and Hilary Swank in Amelia Ahh. The dust is settling. And on the horizon, just visible through the mist and waiting to drive us all up the wall once again: the 2009 Oscar season.

I’ve been writing this year-in-advance column for probably six years now, and I always look forward to gazing ahead. No one dives in so pathetically deep this far out as yours truly, but in exchange for not having a life for the past few months, I get to unload this burden the day after our annual season’s peak and forget about little gold men entirely for a few months.

It’s quite liberating.

The most interesting thing about the season to come, from my vantage point, is the lack of a dreaded “frontrunner status” for any of the contenders. Some might say Clint Eastwood’s Nelson Mandela project (which is not called “The Human Factor,” mind you — the director says the film is currently untitled and is based on John Carlin’s book “Playing the Enemy”).

Others might say Rob Marshall’s “Nine” (coming from a money-tight company hoping to avoid echoes of “Memoirs of a Geisha”). But I don’t see a “Geisha” from here, or a “Charlie Wilson’s War,” expected heavies waiting to miss the mark. The field is curiously flat, and as a result, excitingly broad.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

It seems to me the most film-heavy slate of films will be over on Lankershim Boulevard as Universal Pictures has at least seven contenders that could make a play. While the populism of Judd Apatow’s “Funny People” or Kevin MacDonald’s “State of Play” may or may not register with Academy members, Richard Curtis’s “The Boat That Rocked” or a currently untitled Nancy Meyers project starring Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin could sneak up on the awards watching community.

A wise betting man would keep his eyes on Michael Mann’s “Public Enemies” and Paul Greengrass’s “Green Zone,” and what a delight that should be for Uni publicity. These are two of the most exciting filmmakers working today. The former has the most AMPAS appeal by all accounts, but the studio led Greengrass to Oscar pastures for 2006’s “United 93,” so watch out for his latest Matt Damon starrer.

Add Focus Features’ quartet of hopefuls and you’re looking at a dozen hopefuls under GE’s belt. Who needs DreamWorks? Most fetching of all would have to be Ang Lee’s “Taking Woodstock,” scripted by Focus honcho James Schamus and a period vehicle that could be awards bait for a studio looking to capitalize after a good run with “Milk” last season.

Meanwhile, Sam Mendes switches gears from the heart-wrenching drama of “Revolutionary Road” to the lighter fare of “Away We Go,” a comedy starring “The Office”’s John Krasinski and “Saturday Night Live” alumn Maya Rudolph. Alejandro González Iñárritu will be back in the fray three years after “Babel” with “Biutiful,” starring Javier Bardem and Rubén Ochandiano.

Finally, the Coen brothers are sticking with comedy with “A Serious Man,” which could be a sudden awards vehicle for character actor Richard Kind. What’s most interesting about the Focus lineup, however, is that the studio will be releasing two unconventional animated endeavors into the marketplace that may or may not make an impact with Oscar: Shane Acker’s “9” (based on his short film) and the Neil Gaiman adaptation “Coraline” (from famed animator Henry Selick).

Coraline Speaking of animation, it seems as good a time as any to detour into a category that could see five — count ‘em — five Disney films nominated.

The safest assumption, as always, is that Pixar’s “Up” will find room in the category. Seriously, it’s becoming a surer thing than John Williams. Meanwhile, traditional animation could rear its head with “The Princess and the Frog,” while Hayao Miyazaki might certainly find the respect of his colleagues once again with “Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea.”

And let’s not forget Robert Zemeckis’s “A Christmas Carol,” starring Jim Carrey in a multitude of roles. But will animators scoff at Zemeckis’s “animation” process like they did two years ago with “Beowulf?” Or perhaps “G-Force,” which was teased during the credits of last night’s Oscarcast.

Elsewhere, there is a new “Ice Age” film to contend with as well as Paramount’s “Monsters vs. Aliens,” among others. Check the newly re-stocked Contenders section for the scoop.

Speaking of Paramount, the studio that wishes “Slumdog Millionaire” had gone straight to DVD as planned has a trio of live action contenders in the fray, none of them, I’m told, specifically aimed at the awards season. But who wants to say they’re aiming for the awards season this far out?

The first is Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones,” which might have too many prognosticators getting ahead of themselves from afar. I’m told Jackson really digs in on the difficult material in this adaptation and that as a result, “Oscar movie” isn’t being thrown around by those involved — for now. And last year’s holdover, “The Soloist,” will essentially be dumped into a more fiscally sound spot this year but may still carry enough weight to land a supporting actor nomination for Jamie Foxx.

The big hopeful on Melrose Avenue will be Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” and even though I’m hearing that no one in Marty’s camp wants to think about the “O” word, the fact is you don’t go around describing the film as “a period ‘Departed’” without thinking maybe — just maybe — something can come of it.

The only other film in the Paramount stable that seems fetching (for the moment) is one many are chalking up as a Globes contender more so than an Oscar favorite: Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air,” starring George Clooney and Vera Farmiga. The director didn’t do too bad the last time he found himself in the hunt. Same goes for Clooney. Oh, and sure-fire blockbusters “Star Trek” and “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” will do well in the tech categories for the studio.

Warner Bros. Pictures hit a brick wall on January 22 this year when “The Dark Knight” failed to land an unlikely Oscar nomination, but the studio will jump right back on the horse this year. I don’t think anyone expects Oscar heights for Guy Ritchie’s “Sherlock Holmes,” but you never know. There’s an esteemed below-the-line crew on that production. However, there are two contenders that could be quite formidable over in Burbank: Eastwood’s “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project” and Steven Soderbergh’s “The Informant” (which I’m hearing is quite good).

Eastwood’s film will likely land Morgan Freeman his fifth nomination (“It seems to be the role he was born to play,” the director said at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival in January), while Soderbergh’s agri-business thriller could pit Freeman against his “Mandela” co-star Matt Damon. In fact, Damon could be a double nominee this year if a supporting bid is also in store for his work in Eastwood’s film.

Did someone say double nominee? Penélope Cruz just won her first Oscar for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” but she’s already one of the most buzzed performers of the new season with a leading role in Pedro Almodóvar’s “Broken Embraces” (from Sony Pictures Classics, which also has high hopes for Sundance sensation “An Education”) and the most exciting supporting role of Rob Marshall’s “Nine.”

Matt Damon in The Informant Which brings us to Harvey Weinstein, who crashed the 2008 Oscar party with his first Best Picture nomination since venturing out on his own with brother Bob. In addition to “Nine,” which could bring any number of tech nominations in addition to potential gongs for actors like Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard and Judi Dench, The Weinstein Company will finally get around to releasing the Cormac McCarthy adaptation “The Road.”

The earliest word I heard on this film was dreadful, but recent screenings have lit a more positive fire under the film. Perhaps there is enough water left in the McCarthy well for another run, but best bets are assuredly Viggo Mortensen in the lead actor category and relative newcomer Kodi Smit-McPhee in supporting.

The Weinsteins will also have the Andrew Jarecki-directed “All Good Things,” which may or may not be something former nominees Ryan Gosling and Frank Langella can sink their teeth into. We’ll see. And let’s not forget Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds.” Better yet, let’s try to forget it…

I briefly mentioned Sundance and Sony Classics’ “An Education,” but another film worth discussing in that vein is “Precious” (formerly “Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”), which dominated Park City this year. Mo’Nique seems set for a supporting actress campaign while newcomer Gabourey Sidibe may even be a competitor in lead. We’ll just have to see if Lionsgate can compete.

Moving on, Miramax Films didn’t manage a Best Picture nod for last year’s “Doubt,” but perhaps the studio can get somewhere with the already critically approved “Chéri.” We all know a certain Oscar blogger who’ll lose his mind if Michelle Pfeiffer can manage another lead actress nomination, which she certainly might. Strangely enough, I’m more interested in Miramax’s “The Tempest” from visionary director Julie Taymor. A gender switch in the lead role could bring a fourth Oscar nomination for Helen Mirren (if currently distributorless films like “The Last Station” and “Love Ranch” can’t turn the trick for her).

We can’t wrap things up without discussing this decade’s Cinderella story: Fox Searchlight Pictures. Peter Rice’s company finally brought home the gold this year after fighting the good fight for a long time and this writer couldn’t have been happier. The studio started 2008 without a horse in the derby but soon picked up “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Wrestler” in Toronto. This year, things look somewhat similar. Beyond the rather standard-looking “Amelia” (from director Mira Nair, and very possibly an Oscar pony to compete with), there isn’t much on the slate. Maybe a trip through the festival circuit will change that.

With that in mind, there are a number of films without current U.S. distribution that could quite easily fight their way into the Oscar season. Jane Campion’s “Bright Star,” Scott Cooper’s “Crazy Heart,” Jon Amiel’s “Creation,” Grant Heslov’s “Men Who Stare at Goats,” Terence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” and Jean-Marc Vallée’s “The Young Victoria” are a few examples. It is a general rule that I don’t list a film in my Oscar charts until it picks up distribution (or has deafening buzz and therefore seems destined to pick one up soon). That’s why a number of these flicks are absent from my year-in-advance charts, but all films, with or without U.S. distribution, are accounted for in the Contenders section.

And of course, who knows what eventual Oscar heavies I haven’t listed here or elsewhere in our so-early-it’s-pathetic coverage of the 2009 season? Something always creeps up on us, and it generally waits until right when the season is heating up — seven months from now — to do it. But it would be foolhardy to take this or any year-in-advance speculation to heart. I think I’ve done plenty of heavy lifting for anyone who wants to shed more light on the upcoming season, though, so have at it if you must. For now, I’m off the Oscar beat. At least for a little while (save for the expected scattered coverage of last night’s fallout).

You take a break, too. You deserve it.

(P.S.: One film I didn’t mention in the column is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” You can tell by the materials below that it’s clearly on my mind. However, I can’t really figure out how to qualify it for awards quite yet. We really need to see what he’s come up with first. It could be a game changer or merely a technical dazzler. Time will tell.)

Have your say. What are your insane year-in-advance predictions for the 2009 Oscar season?

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→ 217 Comments Tags: 9, A Christmas Carol, A Serious Man, All Good Things, Amelia, An Education, Avatar, Away We Go, Biutiful, Broken Embraces, Cheri, Clint Eastwood, Coraline, Funny People, G-Force, Gabourey Sidibe, George Clooney, Green Zone, Helen Mirren, Inglourious Basterds, Jamie Foxx, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Love Ranch, Matt Damon, Michelle Pfeiffer, Mo'Nique, Monsters vs. Aliens, Morgan Freeman, Nine, Penelope Cruz, Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea, Public Enemies, Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire, Sherlock Holmes, Star Trek, State of Play, Taking Woodstock, The Boat That Rocked, The Informant, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, The Princess and the Frog, The Road, The Soloist, The Tempest, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up, Up in the Air, Viggo Mortensen | Filed in: Off the Carpet

217 responses so far

1 2-23-2009 at 10:54 am

Mr. F said...

“Oscar nominee Mo’Nique” there’s something I would have never expected to hear.
2 2-23-2009 at 10:56 am

RichardA said...

My ONE purpose this year is to get Monique her first Oscar.
3 2-23-2009 at 10:59 am

Mr. F said...

Also, I think that if the last scene in Harry Potter is handled nicely, and the academy feels like rewarding another fantasy movie, Michael Gambon could get a supporting actor nomination
4 2-23-2009 at 11:03 am

Richard said...

MANDELA
THE LOVELY BONES
NINE
PUBLIC ENEMIES
TAKING WOODSTOCK
5 2-23-2009 at 11:03 am

N8 said...

Things are looking good for this year. I can’t wait to see Public Enemies and Nine.
6 2-23-2009 at 11:12 am

Jimmyz said...

I’m pretty sure ‘Whatever Works’ is coming out via Sony Pictures Classic in June.

And isn’t the Malick film being distributed by Summit? Or did they just finance…?
7 2-23-2009 at 11:17 am

Vito said...

I don’t know. The academy has a huge boner for Cameron. I have a feeling Avatar may be another Titanic….
8 2-23-2009 at 11:24 am

Kokushi said...

WTF is with the Coen Brothers? They need to alternate comedy one year and non-comedy the next, a serious man is for a rental unless the trailer make the movie look better than expected.
9 2-23-2009 at 11:24 am

McGuff said...

Kris: When you talk about “Sherlock Holmes,” are you saying it will likely be too light to have Oscar consideration? I was slotting Robert Downey Jr. as a potential winner.
10 2-23-2009 at 11:25 am

Kristopher Tapley said...

Jimmyz: Thought I had jerked that out of the column when the Sony Classics news came down last week. Thanks for the catch. It’s listed correctly in the contenders sections though.
11 2-23-2009 at 11:26 am

Kristopher Tapley said...

McGuff: I just don’t feel like a Guy Ritchie film can get there just yet. That’s just me, though. There’s a great crew involved. Downey is a nice, ballsy pick from afar, though.
12 2-23-2009 at 11:27 am

Jason said...

i’m looking forward to “cheri” the most. stephen frears is one of my favorite directors (”dangerous liasions,” “the grifters”), pfeiffer is my favorite actresses, hampton one of my favorite writers, and khondji is one of my favorite cinematographers.
13 2-23-2009 at 11:29 am

McGuff said...

The picks I made to a friend last night were Robert Downey Jr., Merryl Streep, Mark Ruffalo and a Nine girl. I know, I’m a wuss on the latter.

I think I’m looking forward to Taking Woodstock almost as much as anything. Is that strange?

And looks like The Office should have pushed their odd Hilary Swank episode back a year. I’m sure she’s going to be relevant in awards talk real soon. Ugh.
14 2-23-2009 at 11:33 am

Liz said...

I thought I read that “An Education” is adapted from a memoir. Will it be a “Syriana”-type thing, where it loses enough of the source material to be considered an original screenplay?
15 2-23-2009 at 11:43 am

Violet said...

Mandela
Nine
Shutter Island
Taking Woodstock
Tree of Life
16 2-23-2009 at 11:50 am

Michael McKay said...

Kris, if you’ve seen Coraline yet, what were your thoughts on it??
17 2-23-2009 at 11:50 am

Loyal Mehnert said...

Way in advance

Best Picture
Avatar
Cheri
The Human Factor
The Lovely Bones
Nine

Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor
Stephen Frears, Cheri
Peter Jackson, Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall, Nine

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Daniel Day Lewis, Nine
Brad Pitt, Tree of Life
Algenis Perez Soto, Sugar

Best Actress
PenГ©lope Cruz, Abrazos Rotos
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Hillary Swank, Amelia

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Last Station
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Cheri
PenГ©lope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Nicole Kidman, Nine
Mo’Nique, Push

Best Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds
Rudo y Cursi
Sugar
This Side of Truth
Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
Cheri
The Human Factor
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine

Best Editing
Avatar
Abrazos Rotos
The Human Factor
Inglourious Basterds
Nine

Best Cinematography
Javier Aguirresarobe, The Road
Dion Beebe, Nine
Mauro Fiore, Avatar
Andrew Lesnie, The Lovely Bones
Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds

Best Art Direction
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Public Enemies

Best Costume Design
Cheri
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Public Enemies
Where The Wild Things Are

Best Make-Up
Nine
Watchmen
The Wolfman

Best Score
Alenxander Desplat, Cheri
Brian Eno, The Lovely Bones
Michael Giacchino, Up
James Horner, Avatar
Randy Newman, The Princess and The Frog

Best Song
Nine
Princess and The Frog
Princess and The Frog
Rudo y Cursi
Up

Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
Nine
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Best Sound Editing
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
Watchmen

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Best Animated Film
A Christmas Carol
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo on the Cliff
The Princess And The Frog
Up

Best Foreign Film

About Elly (Iran)
Abrazos Rotos (Spain)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Rudo y Cursi (Mexico)
Tatarak (Poland)

Best Documentary

Afghan Star
Dirt: The Movie
Michael Moore documentary
Tyson
When You’re Strange
18 2-23-2009 at 11:51 am

Billyboy said...

Yeah, watch out for Patricia Clarkson this year. Its being said she’s a knock out (not a surprise, really) in Woody Allen’s Whatever Works.

I’m rooting for her this year… She certainly deserves some recognition.
19 2-23-2009 at 11:55 am

Deniz said...

what about the unknown Fox Searchlight indie movie we havent heard about yet ?-
After Little Miss Sunshine, Juno and now with the major succes of Slumdog i think that Fox Searchlight has become Pixar in feature film?

Would’t you agree Kris?
20 2-23-2009 at 11:57 am

Brian Kinsley said...

Kris, you still have Leo listed for Rev. Road.

Also, Where the Wild Things Are is my guilty pleasure Oscar-whore this year.
21 2-23-2009 at 11:59 am

Troy said...

“I think IвЂ™m looking forward to Taking Woodstock almost as much as anything. Is that strange?”

Nah, I’m with you.
22 2-23-2009 at 11:59 am

BurmaShave said...

This column demands to be read in the voice of one of those 1940s newsreel announcers. Oscars on the March!
23 2-23-2009 at 12:01 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Liz: Damn, you’re right. I don’t know why I was running on the assumption it was original. I’ve made the alteration, thanks for the catch.

Brian: Thanks, fixed it.
24 2-23-2009 at 12:03 pm

Josh said...

A Cruz/Damon double-nod would be awesome!
25 2-23-2009 at 12:04 pm

Richard said...

Sherlock Holmes will probably have the mood of a Pirates of the Caribbean movie.
26 2-23-2009 at 12:05 pm

BurmaShave said...

And if Johnny Depp can get his first Best Actor nomination for a theme park movie from the director of MOUSEHUNT and THE MEXICAN, I see no reason why Downey Jr. isn’t a strong contender for SHERLOCK.
27 2-23-2009 at 12:08 pm

Brian Kinsley said...

500 Days Of Summer looks to be Searchlight’s big gun this year. We’ll see how that pans out. I think it might be more Garden State than Juno, in terms of Oscars.
28 2-23-2009 at 12:08 pm

Richard said...

Solid point.
29 2-23-2009 at 12:09 pm

Holden said...

Nice predix from Loyal Mehnert.
Here are my BP noms

Inglorious Basterds
The Lonely Bones
Public Enemies
The Rosd
Sherlock Holmes

Other Possibilities: The Human Factor, Watchmen, Up, The Soloist, Nine, Talking Woodstock, Amelia, Tree of Life.
30 2-23-2009 at 12:10 pm

evan said...

I’m really looking forward to Public Enemies, but I don’t see it being a major contender. The summer release and small teases we’ve gotten make it out to be a great summer drama more than an Oscar heavy, but obviously I could be completely wrong about this.
31 2-23-2009 at 12:11 pm

R.J. said...

I have really high hopes for The Princess and the Frog, I hope it’s done well. The few material that has been released looks very promising.

I’m also looking forward to Nine, Push and Shutter Island.
32 2-23-2009 at 12:11 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Brian: No, trust. Amelia is their bet. 500 Days of Summer is probably going the route you suggest.
33 2-23-2009 at 12:14 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

It’s…not…called…The Human Factor.
34 2-23-2009 at 12:24 pm

Ronn said...

This is exactly the reason the NFL and the Academy Awards are the greatest to things have a passion for as neither one has an off-season.
35 2-23-2009 at 12:33 pm

Mr. Gittes said...

Kris,

On paper, Colin Farrell has a pretty impressive lineup of films coming out this year. Watch out.

I think Bale in Public Enemies has a shot at a supporting nod. Southern accent and all.
36 2-23-2009 at 12:40 pm

Brian Kinsley said...

Kris, what are your thoughts on Larry David getting a BA nom? Seems like the kind of nom the Oscars would love, and I laughed my ass off just in the 5 second snippet they showed. Might be more Oscary than Hoffman (which looks great, just not Oscary).
37 2-23-2009 at 12:43 pm

Ziyad Abul Hawa said...

“Agora”, the new Amenabar film (The Sea Inside, The Others. Tesis) is due to this year, with Rachel Weisz.
38 2-23-2009 at 12:43 pm

The Z said...

I’m liking “Sherlock Holmes” and “Public Enemies.” Plus, I gotta give the love to Paul Bettany and “Creation” – Bettany should have been nominated in 2003 for “Master and Commander.”

Don’t forget that Hilary Swank is looking for a third nomination (win?) with “Amelia,” which may finally score Richard Gere a nom.

The day of and the day after the Oscars are my two favorites – one ends the wait and the other begins it yet again.

Looking forward to 2009! (but what year don’t we begin with such blind optimism?)
39 2-23-2009 at 12:44 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

I don’t put Woody Allen and Oscary in the same sentence this far out — ever. Despite Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I’ll just wait until real buzz surfaces in Cannes (it is playing Cannes, right?).
40 2-23-2009 at 12:45 pm

Brian Kinsley said...

Holy shit, Searchlight has Amelia? I totally missed that. Sigh, I couldn’t be anticipating that less.
41 2-23-2009 at 12:46 pm

Brian Kinsley said...

Haha touche, Tapley.
42 2-23-2009 at 12:47 pm

Chris said...

I’d love to see Public Enemies end up in major categories. Movie looks very promising.

I have a feeling Nine will get many nominations, including for DDL. I can also see Clint Eastwood getting nominated for directing, Morgan Freeman for leading actor, Shutter Island in major categories, and Philip Seymour Hoffman seems to be nominated almost every year now.
43 2-23-2009 at 12:50 pm

Jonathan Spuij said...

I am only really looking forward to Avatar this year. It’s the one film I believe will be able to live up to the hype as much as TDK did.
44 2-23-2009 at 12:50 pm

Vito said...

Tapley, I gotta say that line up for Best Actor is awesome. I really hope that sticks because that is one hell of a slate that would make for an incredible race.
45 2-23-2009 at 12:55 pm

Alexander Coleman said...

One of the big “X factors” this year seems to be, is Spielberg aiming to shoot “Lincoln” in the spring/summer and release it “by Christmas” as Kathleen Kennedy and Tony Kushner both said in the past couple of months. If so, then that would shake things up quite a bit, at least theoretically.
46 2-23-2009 at 1:00 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Alexander: It’s not going to happen. Kim Masters reported last week that Paramount has passed on the project, so unless another studio suddenly expresses an interest, I think it’ll wait until next year…if ever. Spielberg is infamous for this shit.
47 2-23-2009 at 1:02 pm

Loyal Mehnert said...

The Human Factor, Mandela, Playing The Enemy, The Enemy At Play, Clint’s Yearly Oscar Film, call it what ye like Taps.

I felt silly listing the last two cats but figured why not go balls deep.

Avatar is the true wild card this year. Wish Cameron would put together a package for the media in Cannes.

As for Nine, the only thing that could stop it from steamrolling over the competition (I mean, how many Globe noms will it get, 19?) is the music itself. It isn’t as user friendly as say Moulin Rouge! or Chicago. It has more in common with Sweeney Todd and Dreamgirls in that regard.

I’ve learned not to call locks and such this early on but Nine has the pedigree of something special. Time will tell, as would a trailer.
48 2-23-2009 at 1:04 pm

James D. said...

Kris, I think you should put stars next to your predicted winners, that way I know who the pictures correspond to.

Watch out for The Fantastic Mr. Fox. Wes Anderson has to come back.
49 2-23-2009 at 1:09 pm

Alexander Coleman said...

Kristopher, thank you. I read that Kim Masters piece as well. Didn’t sound likely at this point.
50 2-23-2009 at 1:19 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

James: The pictures are just examples, I only had them represent predicted winners in the second phase of the season, after the nominations.

I might or might not offer up a predicted winners post this early. After all, I only got two right last year, so I find myself wondering, “What’s the point?” The good thing about the year-in-advance nominee predictions is it forces me to dive into the contenders and do some research that’ll help out down the stretch.
51 2-23-2009 at 1:21 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Loyal: Maybe he SHOULD just retitle it “Clint’s Yearly Oscar Film.”
52 2-23-2009 at 1:29 pm

Loyal Mehnert said...

I’ll be disappointed if Clint doesn’t sing a little ditty about apartheid over the end credits. Maybe get the South African choir from John Legend’s performance last night as back up.

Predict the winners Tapley, what’s the worst that could happen?
53 2-23-2009 at 1:32 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

You’re right. Maybe tomorrow.
54 2-23-2009 at 1:59 pm

Anthony said...

I think that TAKING WOODSTOCK will be as strong an ensemble comedy as Robert Altman’s M*A*S*H was way back in 1969 (same year as Woodstock, not coincidentally) . . . should be another good year for movies, my friends.
55 2-23-2009 at 2:02 pm

James D. said...

You know Kris, after calling Departures the way you did, I am going to take your year in advance predictions to Vegas. I am still stunned by that.
56 2-23-2009 at 2:03 pm

Bernardo said...

2009 will be a better year than 08. But with the same old names, such Scorcese, Clint, Peter Jackson, Rob Marshall and Ang Lee.

But nowadays the litlle movies have more and more impact. So, we may have a lots of surprises…
57 2-23-2009 at 2:10 pm

Steven S. said...

My best picture lineup:

1. Shutter Island
2. Untitled Nelson Mandela Project
3. Nine
4. The Lovely Bones
5. Away We Go

Other people to watch out for that I don’t see mentioned are: Ellen Burstyn, Lovely, Still and Mary & Max for animated feature. Also Algenis Perez Soto, Sugar could get nominated but best actor is looking strong this year.
58 2-23-2009 at 2:18 pm

Bernardo said...

Steven, the Academy almost never nominated a comedy, so will impossible to choose the “Away we Go.”

Shutter Island, Mandela and 9 will be a certain. The rest it will depend by the critics.
59 2-23-2009 at 2:32 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Had Burstyn on the charts for 2008, Steven, but forgot about her when the flick never picked up distribution. Thanks for reminding.
60 2-23-2009 at 2:41 pm

Bill said...

Sherlock Holmes will get zer0 nominations. It’s going to be a poorly-reviewed blockbuster piece of trash, maybe feature at the Razzies.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman will not get a nomination for this role. It’ll be great, it’ll be fun, but it will not be Oscar. A screenplay nom for Boat would be a pleasant surprise.

Judd for Screenplay is a prayer, but it’s worth praying for.

I have a bad feeling about DDL for Nine-just too recent for him, and can even Day-Lewis make this into a memorable performance? Slapping DL and Cottiard on screen together is baity to the point of desperate.

I’ve heard amazing things about Viggo in The Road.

Highly doubt both Damon and DiCaprio will be nominated-one or the other, probably Damon.

Johnny Depp might show up in Lead Actor.

Liam Neeson will probably win if they can fit Lincoln into 2009.

If Hopkins plays Hitchcock in 09, look out.

Helen Mirren as Prospero? Perhaps.
61 2-23-2009 at 2:43 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

The Hitchcock film has been pushed a few years. Not happening this year. Lots on Murphy’s plate, but I agree, when it shows up: watch out.
62 2-23-2009 at 2:48 pm

Bill said...

Brendan Gleeson’s 2009:

Perrier’s Bounty
Green Zone
Into the Storm

Perhaps?
63 2-23-2009 at 2:49 pm

Jake said...

I think Johnny Depp has a good chance at a nomination for Public Enemies. Anything the man does these days is recognized (and rightfully so). I can’t wait for The Lovely Bones, Amelia, and the Clint Eastwood film.
64 2-23-2009 at 2:51 pm

Bernardo said...

Rigth now the favorites for leading actors are Michelle Pfeifer and Morgan Freeman, but if Lincoln appears this year, Liam maybe have the Oscar
65 2-23-2009 at 2:56 pm

Chad said...

Night at the Museum is a Fox film and Inglourious Basterds will be released by Weinstein.

Some films possibly missing from the contenders list are

Tetro (American Zoetrope self-releasing)
Jennifer’s Body (Fox)
Fame (MGM)
Angels & Demons (Sony)
A Christmas Carol (Disney)
Shanghia (Weinstein)
66 2-23-2009 at 2:57 pm

Bernardo said...

And of course, if Lincoln premieres this year, Sally Fields may have a shot…
67 2-23-2009 at 3:02 pm

Bernardo said...

Another film that no one talked is “Invention of Liyng” from Rick Gervais. A promissing comedy with a fantastic cast: Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, Tina Fey and himself…
68 2-23-2009 at 3:03 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

You had to dig though, Chad. ;)

And I must have been looking at foreign distrib. rights for Basterds.
69 2-23-2009 at 3:05 pm

JAB said...

anyone else find it odd that Demetri Martin and Maya Rudolph are leads in potential Oscar vehicles?
I think too many eggs are being put in the Nelson Mandela basket, Freeman’s a sure thing, but I don’t know about anything else.
I think Taymor’s Tempest might shock a lot of people, to the degree of getting Mirren her second Oscar.
I think if there’s a supporting actor contender from Public Enemies it will be Christian Bale before Billy Crudup, and Depp will get a nod for that.
As far as Nine goes, i think it will certainly get two supporting actress nominations, but I sincerely doubt either will go to Sophia Loren…did you see her last night? Also, does anyone know if any of the female roles in that are more of a Leading role? I could see Kidman or Cruz going lead for that, and Cotillard and Hudson getting supporting nods…yes, Kate Hudson.
70 2-23-2009 at 3:07 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

“Angels & Demons”

I know I’m being liberal and including everything, but…seriously?
71 2-23-2009 at 3:08 pm

BurmaShave said...

Damn I forgot TETRO even existed. YWY was dreadful, but I am always down for a new Coppola, and hope he figures it out this time. Just watched his DRACULA again. That has to be one of the most insane films ever.
72 2-23-2009 at 3:10 pm

Chad said...

I wouldn’t include any of them save A Christmas Carol but didn’t want to be presumptuous.
73 2-23-2009 at 3:11 pm

Bill said...

Mirren may be on the ticket-the last Shakespearean Oscar was Oliver’s Hamlet in 1948, it’s high time for more.

Taymor is really, really weird though-did you see Titus?

Invention of Lying will get a Screenplay nod-maybe win-but the word on the street is a 2010 release date.

And now we pray for Aziz Ansari in Funny People.
74 2-23-2009 at 3:14 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

And A Christmas Carol is well-represented throughout, by the way.
75 2-23-2009 at 3:15 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Bill: Seriously, this or that “will get a nomination?” Come on, any absolutist talk this far out is a huge knock on credibility. We know N-O-T-H-I-N-G.
76 2-23-2009 at 3:15 pm

Douglas said...

Kris,
I’m think the Nelson Mandela project is called “The Human Factor”
well that is according to IMDb

oh and what about Public Enemies for Best Picture? And I am sure Johnny Depp will be in the race for Best Actor again.
Also “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” will surely be nominated for costume, make up, and art/set.
77 2-23-2009 at 3:16 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

And yeah, I forgot about “Tetro” completely, so thanks for that reminder.
78 2-23-2009 at 3:16 pm

JAB said...

also, isn’t Dorian Gray coming out this year? Rebecca Hall proved herself in 08, maybe she gets some recognition this year?
79 2-23-2009 at 3:16 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Douglas: I’m quoting the director of the film, you’re quoting IMDb. It’s no longer called “The Human Factor.” It is simply called “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project.”
80 2-23-2009 at 3:18 pm

Bernardo said...

I agree that Sophia Loren looks strange. A Dolly Parton brunette… lol. But she might deliver a good acting. Such Cotillard and Penelope.
81 2-23-2009 at 3:19 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Good call on Dorian Gray, JAB. That one I totally missed.
82 2-23-2009 at 3:19 pm

Bill said...

Kris, I agree, I thought the mandatory doubt was just guarenteed. I hoped to go half-way to certainty with the “will”s because that’s obviously as far as we can go.
83 2-23-2009 at 3:22 pm

Loyal Mehnert said...

If This Side of Truth/Invention Of Lying is indeed a 2010 release, I’ll have to adjust my Screenplay predicitions.

Someone pointed out earlier to me that the only hope Pixar has in Original Screenplay is if there are no Best Picture nominees in the category.

I’d tend to agree with that and I think the category will pan out as such this year (that is, unless Up is nominated for BP with it’s tug at the heartstrings twilight years tale).

I’m not predicting it mind you, just summoning the annual Pixar spectre.
84 2-23-2009 at 3:23 pm

berch said...

Don`t forget the new Alejandro Amenabar movie, Agora, a historical drama set in Roman Egypt with Rachel Weisz and Triage a Danis Tanovic movie with Colin Farrell, Christopher Lee and Paz Vega :)
85 2-23-2009 at 3:23 pm

Douglas said...

woops just read the top of your column Kris about it not being called the Human Factor
86 2-23-2009 at 3:25 pm

Zan said...

You really like Damon and “The Informant” as heavy favorites for a comedy?

I’ve heard “The Girlfriend Experience” is going to be Soderbergh’s gem this year.
87 2-23-2009 at 3:33 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Thanks, berch. Good call.

Zan: I’ve heard “Informant” is very good, nothing on GFE, though. And have you seen the pounds Damon packed for the former?? Sure, he’s a lead actor contender.
88 2-23-2009 at 3:37 pm

Zan said...

I’ll take your word; I haven’t seen the photos.

“Informant” sounds akin to an “Ocean’s” film– comedy with wider appeal while “Girlfriend Experience” could be closer to Soderbergh’s earliest days of independent film.

Should be a year of steady dinero for him after a poor ROI on “Che”.
89 2-23-2009 at 3:48 pm

Bill said...

Colin Firth is reverse-cast in Dorian Grey, first time he’s ever really played against type. That could help for a supporting nod.
90 2-23-2009 at 3:49 pm

Ben M. said...

Having read the novel of Shutter Island I can see why they might not be talking about oscar. I would say it is closer to something like Memento than Lehane’s own Mystic River, and Departed just won and Scorsese’s two films before that were also nominated so I don’t think there will be any rush to nominate him again.

My gut tells me Up could be a factor in the BP race; if the word that it is just as good as Wall-E really is true, it is hard not to see at least some kind of a push for the film (the Wall-E snub may help here, as it will be getting harder for the academy to keep on ignoring Pixar films).
91 2-23-2009 at 3:49 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Zan: It’s not an Ocean’s tale at all. Check out the thick work of non-fiction it’s based on. More like Syriana meets Erin Brockovich meets A Civil Action.
92 2-23-2009 at 3:53 pm

Brian Kinsley said...

And in a perfect world, some of the Brothers Bloom cast would get notices.

Come to think of it, Weisz is going to have one HELL of a year. Bones, Bloom, Agora. It’ll show such a wide range.
93 2-23-2009 at 4:01 pm

Loyal Mehnert said...

Doesn’t Damon have a mental illness of sorts in The Informant? That’s baity baby.
94 2-23-2009 at 4:03 pm

Bill said...

He put on weight…(George Clooney, 2005, Syriana?)
95 2-23-2009 at 4:09 pm

Zach said...

According to Wikpedia (which I usually don’t put much stock in) “Shutter Island” was renamed “Ashecliffe”.
96 2-23-2009 at 4:31 pm

Kevin said...

In terms of major awards, I’ll take a shot. The early word I heard on The Road was amazing, so I expect it to make a splash.

Best Picture:

The Road
Nine
Public Enemies
The Lovely Bones
Shutter Island

Best Director:

John Hillcoat (The Road)
Martin Scorsese (Shutter Island)
Michael Mann (Public Enemies)
Peter Jackson (The Lovely Bones)
Rob Marhsall (Nine)

Best Actor:

Viggo Mortensen (The Road)
Matt Damon (The Informant)
Daniel Day Lewis (Nine)
Morgan Freeman (Nelson Mandela Project)
Johnny Depp (Public Enemies)

Best Actress:

Michelle Pfieffer (Cheri)
Penelope Cruz (Broken Embraces)
Hilary Swank (Amelia)
Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones)

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale (Public Enemies)
Billy Crudup (Public Enemies)
Mark Ruffalo (Shutter Island)
Richard Kind (A Serious Man)
Kodi Smitt McPhee (The Road)

Best Supporting Actress:

Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Marion Cotillard (Public Enemies)
Judi Dench (Nine)
Rachel Wiesz (The Lovely Bones)
Michelle Williams (Shutter Island)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Nine
The Lovely Bones
Shutter Island
The Road
Public Enemies

Best Original Screenplay:

Up
Sherlock Holmes
Broken Embraces
Biutiful
The Boat that Rocked
97 2-23-2009 at 4:31 pm

A.J said...

Push was recently renamed “Precious”
98 2-23-2009 at 4:36 pm

Matthew said...

I think Coraline or Wes Anderson’s upcoming stop motion Fantastic Mr. Fox adaptation are more likely to be nominated for Animated Feature than Monsters vs. Aliens. I’ve seen a few clips from Mvs.A and it is awful. Even with the 3D.
99 2-23-2009 at 4:44 pm

Brian Kinsley said...

I think we’re going to have 5 animated films this year. There’s just so many coming out.
100 2-23-2009 at 4:49 pm

Jim said...

1) Kris, thank you!! I was looking forward for this and your analysis is more than I expected!!

2) My predix:

best pic:

The Road
Nine
Avatar
Public Enemies
Shutter Island

but I hope I’m wrong because I want The Lovely Bones to get a nod at least. I’m currently reading the book and I enjoy it very much!

3) What do you think about Dench’s chances? I’ve missed her and want to see her getting her 7th.
101 2-23-2009 at 4:57 pm

Troy said...

“The early word I heard on The Road was amazing, so I expect it to make a splash.”

Really? Is this since the release date was pushed back? Because prior to that, the buzz wasn’t very good. Although, the negatives that people pointed out in their reviews didn’t sound bad to me, it actually made me excited how true to the novel it was.
102 2-23-2009 at 4:57 pm

Bill M. said...

I thought the Public Enemies omission was ballsy.
I’d substitute Public Enemies for Taking Woodstock.

No Bale or Depp love in Lead? One will get nominated two is an obvious stretch.
103 2-23-2009 at 5:03 pm

Douglas said...

Look out for these:

- Darren AronofskyвЂ™s вЂњThe FighterвЂќ
- Rowan WoodвЂ™s вЂњWinged CreaturesвЂќ
- Terry Gilliam’s “The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus”
104 2-23-2009 at 5:30 pm

Bill said...

If Joaquin Pheonix’s strange behavior is an art project, could he receive a best actor nomination for the Casey Affleck “docu”?
105 2-23-2009 at 5:33 pm

Brian Kinsley said...

I think “The Fighter” is either not happening or not happening in 09.

Sarandon has a baity role in Lovely Bones too.
106 2-23-2009 at 5:36 pm

Grilled Cheese said...

I’m still not sure what to expect from The Informant. At first I was thinking something along the lines of Michael Clayton, but then I see that it has a bunch of comedians in the cast. What’s the deal? I was an extra so I’m hoping for the best.
107 2-23-2009 at 5:36 pm

Bryan said...

I’m sensing Shutter Island will win Best Picture – the book was brilliant, it has an amazing (non baity) cast, is directed by Scorcese, and has a plot.

Emily Mortimer for Best Supporting Actress for playing the serial killer in Shutter Island.

Leo is also in with a chance.
108 2-23-2009 at 5:39 pm

Mr. Gittes said...

So no one thinks Peter Jackson – like Paul Thomas Anderson – can pull the “stuff” out of Wahlberg?
109 2-23-2009 at 5:47 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

A,J,: What’s the source on that. Must have missed it on my end.

RE: Ashcliffe, I think that was a working title but I believe they’ll stick with the original title.
110 2-23-2009 at 5:49 pm

Joel said...

I agree with whoever said that there might be five animated films.

And I’m really looking forward to Watchmen, Shutter Island, Harry Potter 6, Funny People, Public Enemies…

God, there’s a lot.
111 2-23-2009 at 6:12 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Let me just say I’m totally stoked this thread made it to 100 posts without the added reply bump of an unnecessarily heated debate. Might be a first.

See how relaxed everyone is when the show is over?
112 2-23-2009 at 6:23 pm

Jim said...

Kris, I guess you have next to zero expectations for Woody Allen’s movie? Sadly, you’re probably right.
113 2-23-2009 at 6:27 pm

Sean said...

@Mr. Gittes… I definately think Jackson will motivate Wahlberg to give a great performance, but I don’t think he’ll get nominated or anything. But i’m suprised Lovely Bones got left off the predictions(its my prediction for best picture) but there are a lot of good looking movies. I’m glad Ronan made it on the predictions list.
114 2-23-2009 at 6:28 pm

JAB said...

i think that’s good news about Push’s title changing to Precious if it’s true, considering there was just a movie out called Push…
115 2-23-2009 at 6:57 pm

John K said...

Maybe I’ll come back with (admittedly pointless) predictions later in the week, but let me just say that your current Best Actor slate is absurd. Damon, Day-Lewis, DiCaprio, Freeman, and Hoffman, with Depp and Clooney looking in? Jesus Christ. Sick, sick lineup.

Fun to see Richard Kind and Mo’Nique as possible contenders. However, I’m surprised that Stanley Tucci didn’t even make your top ten for supporting actor – he’s a veteran who I assume the Academy wants to reward, and he has the “Oscar bait-iest” role in his movie (assuming the movie is relatively faithful to the book).

The four movies I’m most anticipating are “Public Enemies,” “Up,” “Lovely Bones,” and “Taking Woodstock.” Of those, I’m only counting on “Lovely Bones” to make any kind of signficant splash nominations-wise. (I don’t think the August release date for “Taking Woodstock” bodes well for its chances.)
116 2-23-2009 at 7:06 pm

AmericanRequiem said...

THE LOVELY BONES and UP!
117 2-23-2009 at 7:11 pm

Bill said...

Kris,
I just looked at the Contenders page-really, really good job there! Very thorough-you’ve got most of your bases covered come next January. But of course, anything could happen.
118 2-23-2009 at 7:21 pm

Aaron said...

Great predictions…

I’m predicting another big year for Penelope Cruz as well. Right now I just don’t know how she can miss for Nine unless she just totally sucks haha
119 2-23-2009 at 7:22 pm

Aaron said...

O and I had a friend who went to see an early screening of Cheri. It did not turn out well I hear. People were supposedly laughing during Michelle Pfeiffer’s intimate/emotional scenes. It was a very lukewarm response.
120 2-23-2009 at 7:30 pm

JAB said...

P.S.
what about Brothers? Portman, Maguire, and Gyllenhaal?
121 2-23-2009 at 7:33 pm

AmericanRequiem said...

Do you think there is any oscar potential in Where the Wild thing are kris?
122 2-23-2009 at 7:35 pm

John said...

But I did see The Road in an advance screening. It’s an incredibly faithful adaptation to the book, but it will be a tough sell at the Oscars…it’s an incredibly bleak story, and it obviously doesn’t have the Coen’s touch like No Country did…It will not be everyone’s cup of tea….

…but look out for Robert Duvall…he nails it in a short, but very affecting (5-8 minutes at the MAX) scene. He was phenomenal.

Viggo was great as well. Kodi Smit-McPhee was fine. I do not see an Oscar nomination for him or Charlize Theron for that matter.
123 2-23-2009 at 10:01 pm

The Z said...

Maybe I’m going nuts in the early 2009 Oscar season, but I think Benicio Del Toro may be one to look out for as lead actor in “The Wolf Man.” I’m not saying he’ll win, but I seriously think a nomination is highly likely.

First, he was overlooked in 2008 for “Che.” Second, “The Wolf Man” has an early November release – and that’s what catches me, seeing as that’s right when the Oscar season starts to heat up. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the film to open before Halloween if the studio was pushing it as a horror flick?

And if a full moon opening was to be used (an odd but apt gimmick), then it would make more sense to open on anight when there is a full moon – the closest is Monday, November 2.

I’m probably just reading into this way too much, but, hey, isn’t that the fun? All I know is right now I’ve got him in my predicted five and I don’t anticipate removing him until the day before the nominations are announced – if he’s not in real contention, that is.
124 2-23-2009 at 10:07 pm

Michael Rogers said...

I’m not as ‘in the loop’ as many in this thread are, however, Douglas was the only one who mentioned the Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus. Do people have such low hopes for this film? I think it might be time to show Gilliam some love finally and I think I remember Gilliam himself saying Ledger completed almost half his role.

I think since Dogtown everything Heath has done has been nothing short of amazing, maybe people will feel like honoring him some more. Dean was nominated twice.
125 2-23-2009 at 10:17 pm

Michael Rogers said...

Also does Watchmen have any chance at breaking into BP? Perhaps compensating for TDK snub?

There are some problems with the story but I think if they can make stuff like Dr Manhattan jumping back and forward through time in his mind work well then people will pay attention.
126 2-24-2009 at 1:27 am

Joe W said...

BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Green Zone
The Lovely Bones
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
127 2-24-2009 at 2:54 am

Glenn said...

Some thoughts:

If “Shutter Island” gets nominated for Best Picture/Director that means that Martin Scorsese’s past four movies have achieved that feat. Would that be a record? I’m currently thinking it’ll miss out. Although back in June 2008 I predicted Emily Mortimer would win Best Supporting Actress for her role in the movie and I’m sticking with it.

I really want to predict “Up” for Best Picture as a sort of culmination of the past two years of best picture pixar buzz, but also because it’s about an old coot and it’s apparently quite moving so maybe the voters will finally see a tale they can respond to. Hmmm.

Scorsese/Lee/Eastwood combo would be big, no? Interesting that you dump out Mira Nair (wise move) for… Kathryn Bigelow. I’ve been thinking about that since it was screened at Toronto.

Have you seen the “Boat That Rocked” trailer? I’m also predicting a screenplay nod but I don’t see how Hoffman gets in. I know they love him, but… surely not.

You really think they’ll nominate Cruz for ANOTHER foreign language Almodovar film just one year after giving her the award? AND supporting actress. I guess you’re banking of a whole tonne of good will towards her. I’m thinking Judi Dench will be the “Nine” performance to look out for. Has she ever sang on screen before? Something that’ll surely impress many voters.

“Push” has been renamed “Prescious”. MO’NIQUE!!! The host of “Flavors of Love: Charm School” absolutely must be an Oscar nominee by next year.

Can anybody else see “Coraline” winning animated film? it’s a hit, they like claymation, maybe a bit of Pixar overkill (unless “Up” is yet another “best Pixar ever” effort) and just good ol’ fashioned quality?

Wow… that was more than just a few notes, huh? Sorry.
128 2-24-2009 at 2:54 am

Glenn said...

Michael, I’ll be predicting “Parnassus” for art direction and costume.
129 2-24-2009 at 4:38 am

jack said...

BEST FOREIGN FILM BROKEN EMBRACES
130 2-24-2009 at 6:29 am

Hans said...

I wonder if Disney is too disheartened to bother with promoting either of its two biggest ponies for Best Picture after spending millions on a campaign that ultimately only won them the oscar they had in the bag since the beginning.

Seeing as how it was a mega blockbuster that first brought me to the Oscar race, I’m kinda hoping there will be at least one piece of populist faire this year that gets some significant Oscar momentum rolling.

Johnny Depp can play a freaking table and I would still think he’d deserve a Best Actor nod. I’m pulling for a win for him this year. I also have cautiously high hopes for Nine, it just seems too baity.

Any chance the Academy would feel compelled enough to the Ledger a second posthumous bid for Imaginatium?
131 2-24-2009 at 6:43 am

Alejo said...

what about the road?
132 2-24-2009 at 6:51 am

JAB said...

also, Wolf Man looks terrible.
133 2-24-2009 at 7:08 am

Lil Shed said...

There could be a foreign best actor contender in 2010 German Actor Ulrich Tukur (Lives of Others) for John Rabe it’s about the Nanjing massacre i saw the trailer a while back, and I have to say it looks like a meaty role . This might also be a strong contender for the Great Character Actor Steve Buscemi who was looked over in Fargo, and Ghostworld.

Johnny Depp could pull off his 4th Oscar nomination for Public Enemies. I think he’ll be in everyone’s Oscar charts inculding yours Kris buy time the trailer comes out.

Kris..
Any word on Brooklyn’s Finest, there’s are some great actor’s in this film that are due for another nomination Cheadle, and Hawke. I hope it’s a good film because Fuqa hasn’t done anything worth mentioning since Training Day.

Nine has many Oscar winners Day- Lewis, Loren, Cruz, Kidman, Cotiallrd, and Dame Dench. Too Good to be true Weinstien really wants to win Best Picture.
134 2-24-2009 at 8:08 am

mike said...

I have heard only decent thinks about Taking Woodstock from some preview screening held a few weeks ago, but they were rough cuts.

Movies I think will be featured in next years Oscar’s are:
Tree of Life (Pitt and Penn maybe nominated, 1 actor, 1 supporting)
Public Enemies (Depp, not sure about Bale)
Shutter Island
Lovely Bones
Informant
Green Zone
The Road
Nine
135 2-24-2009 at 9:00 am

J.S. said...

Early word from Spain has been terrific for Cruz. The Best Actress race doesn’t seem to be especially strong this year, so I see no reason why they wouldn’t nominate her again (foreign language or not). And, of course, she has the most exciting role in “Nine,” so I agree that she’ll be nominated there as well. Some may say that Cruz will be hurt by her win this year, but remember that she didn’t win everywhere. GG voters, in addition to BFCA and SAG, may be itching to reward her after the Oscar win.
136 2-24-2009 at 9:19 am

McGuff said...

Mike: I struggle to see the possibility of a Best Picture race including Public Enemies, Shutter Island, Informat and Green Zone. Maybe that’s not what you’re saying. But it would be a strange year if 4 of the 5 BP spots went to that genre of film (I realize it’s not the exact same genre, but they are all under the same umbrella, no?)
137 2-24-2009 at 9:45 am

Jason Darby said...

Took my own stab…played around a bit with categorizations (Meryl Streep as supporting in Julia, really?). File this under wish I had never said it in about, oh, six months from now.

Best Picture
1. Nine
2. The Human Factor
3. Public Enemies
4. Cheri
5. Broken Embraces
6. Amelia
7. Taking Woodstock
8. The Informant
9. Shutter Island
10. The Lovely Bones
11. The Boat That Rocked
12. Green Zone
13. The Hurt Locker
14. Julie & Julia
15. The Young Victoria
16. Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
17. Funny People
18. Avatar
19. The Tempest
20. Biutiful

Best Director
1. Clint Eastwood/The Human Factor
2. Michael Mann/Public Enemies
3. Rob Marshall/Nine
4. Pedro Almodovar/Broken Embraces
5. Stephen Frears/Cheri
6. Peter Jackson/The Lovely Bones
7. Kathryn Bigelow/The Hurt Locker
8. Lee Daniels/Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
9. Ang Lee/Taking Woodstock
10. Martin Scorsese/Shutter Island
11. Mira Nair/Amelia
12. Steven Soderbergh/The Informant
13. Richard Curtis/The Boat That Rocked
14. Jean-Marc Vallee/The Young Victoria
15. Paul Greengrass/Green Zone
16. James Cameron/Avatar
17. Judd Apatow/Funny People
18. Terrence Malick/The Tree of Life
19. Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Bastard
20. Julie Taymor/The Tempest

Best Actor
1. Morgan Freeman/The Human Factor
2. Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine
3. Johnny Depp/Public Enemies
4. Viggo Mortensen/The Road
5. Matt Damon/The Informant
6. Demitri Martin/Taking Woodstock
7. Christopher Plummer/The Last Station
8. Jim Carrey/I Love You Phillip Morris
9. Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island
10. Mark Wahlberg/The Lovely Bones
11. Christian Bale/Public Enemies
12. Martin Landau/Lovely, Still
13. Matt Damon/Green Zone
14. Adam Sander/Funny People
15. Phillip Seymour Hoffman/The Boat That Rocked
16. Jeremy Renner/The Hurt Locker
17. George Clooney/Up in the Air
18. Javier Bardem/Biutiful
19. Brad Pitt/Inglorious Bastards
20. Benicio del Toro/The Wolfman

Best Actress
1. Michelle Pfeiffer/Cheri
2. Hilary Swank/Amelia
3. Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces
4. Nicole Kidman/Nine
5. Gabourey Sidibe/Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
6. Audrey Tautou/Coco avant Chanel
7. Helen Mirren/The Tempest
8. Emily Blunt/The Young Victoria
9. Carey Mulligan/An Education
10. Emma Thompson/The Boat That Rocked
11. Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia
12. Amy Adams/Julie & Julia
13. Halle Berry/Franke and Alice
14. Evan Rachel Wood/Whatever Works
15. Ellen Burstyn/Lovely, Still
16. Saoirse Ronan/The Lovely Bones
17. Maya Rudolph/Away We Go
18. Naomi Watts/Need
19. Robin Wright Penn/The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
20. Meryl Streep/Untitled Nancy Meyers Project

Best Supporting Actor
1. Billy Crudup/Public Enemies
2. Matt Damon/The Human Factor
3. Kodi Scott-McPhee/The Road
4. Richard Gere/Amelia
5. Christian Bale/Public Enemies
6. Christopher Ecclestian/Amelia
7. Bill Nighy/The Boat That Rocked
8. Rupert Friend/Cheri
9. Mark Ruffallo/Shutter Island
10. Greg Kinnear/Green Zone
11. Richard Kind/A Serious Man
12. Ewan MacGregor/Amelia
13. Jonathan Groff/Taking Woodstock
14. Paul Giamatti/The Last Station
15. Rupert Friend/The Young Victoria
16. Allan Harvey/The Informant
17. Jamie Foxx/The Soloist
18. Seth Rogen/Funny People
19. Ben Kingsley/Shutter Island
20. Djimon Hounsou/The Tempest

Best Supporting Actress
1. Mo’nique/Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
2. Judi Dench/Nine
3. Kathy Bates/Cheri
4. Patricia Clarkson/Whatever Works
5. Lola Duenas/Broken Embraces
6. Marion Cotillard/Nine
7. Sophia Loren/Nine
8. Miranda Richardson/The Young Victoria
9. Rachel Weisz/The Lovely Bones
10. Imelda Staunton/Taking Woodstock
11. Amy Ryan/Green Zone
12. Michelle Williams/Shutter Island
13. Penelope Cruz/Nine
14. Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies
15. Virginia Madsen/Amelia
16. Emma Thompson/An Education
17. Emily Mortimer/Shutter Island
18. Evangeline Lilly/The Hurt Locker
19. Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia
20. Charlize Theron/The Road

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Public Enemies
2. Nine
3. An Education
4. Cheri
5. Taking Woodstock

Best Original Screenplay
1. Broken Embraces
2. The Boat That Rocked
3. Up
4. Whatever Works
5. Funny People

Best Animated Film
1. Up
2. Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea
3. The Princess and the Frog
4. The Fantastic Mr. Fox
5. Monsters vs. Aliens

Best Art Direction
1. Nine
2. The Tempest
3. Public Enemies
4. Cheri
5. Shutter Island

Best Cinematography
1. Broken Embraces
2. The Human Factor
3. Nine
4. Public Enemies
5. Green Zone

Best Costumes
1. Public Enemies
2. Cheri
3. The Young Victoria
4. The Tempest
5. Amelia

Best Film Editing
1. Nine
2. The Human Factor
3, Nine
4. Green Zone
5. Cheri

Best Makeup
1. The Wolfman
2. The Tempest
3. Cheri

Best Original Score
1. Amelia
2. Up
3. Public Enemies
4. Broken Embraces
5. Cheri

Best Sound Editing
1. Public Enemies
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. Star Trek
4. Up
5. Green Zone

Best Sound Mixing
1. Nine
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. Avatar
4. Public Enemies
5. Up

Best Visual Effects
1. Avatar
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. The Wolf Man
138 2-24-2009 at 10:34 am

Dao said...

some small films that haven’t mentioned but could resonate well.

the Vintner luck – the new film by Niy Caro with always great Vera Farmiga. Plot sounds like good vintage.

Cirque du Freak – possibly some artistic noms, great cast also though

King shot – just a dream, seems to be too unconventional

Duplicity – follow-up to oscar-nominated Michael Clayton for Tony Gilroy but spring release

Welcome to the Rileys – everything about this movie is so oscar-friendly

The messenger – favourable reviews from Sundance and Berlin. Samantha Morton is the safest bet here.

Ondine – The new Neil Jordan, really could be the year of Colin Farrell
139 2-24-2009 at 10:50 am

Kristopher Tapley said...

Glenn: You’re thinking WAY too hard about this.
140 2-24-2009 at 11:07 am

Kristopher Tapley said...

FYI, thanks everyone for the additional films. I’ve added what I think to be pertinent (which is most of it).

Also, I notice some folks are asking why this film or that isn’t predicted. Some of the films being mentioned don’t have a distributor in the states yet, and as I note in the column, I refrain from sticking a film on the charts until it has secured U.S. distribution or seems destined for one because of the buzz of this or that contender.
141 2-24-2009 at 11:10 am

JAB said...

Kris- Is Brothers one of those films without a distributor?
142 2-24-2009 at 11:20 am

Kristopher Tapley said...

No, MGM is on it. I just don’t have much faith in it at the moment. Maybe Newman’s score, since for the moment, he has nothing else slated. That bump to 2009 kind of concerned me, too.
143 2-24-2009 at 11:28 am

JAB said...

that’s unfortunate, I hope it turns out well, Portman and Gyllenhaal are two of my favorite actors right now, and it would be nice to see a return to form after such disasters as The Other Boleyn Girl and Rendition.
144 2-24-2009 at 11:45 am

JAB said...

can i just say, if Hilary swank beats Meryl Streep to three oscars…that might be the most frustrating thing ever.
145 2-24-2009 at 12:16 pm

McAllister said...

I think Triage is definitely one to watch. Colin Farrell and Christopher Lee could potentially get nominations.
146 2-24-2009 at 2:22 pm

Bill said...

Is Howl coming out in 09? James Franco as Allen Ginsberg sounds like prime bait to me.
147 2-24-2009 at 2:47 pm

Jason said...

I changed my predix a bit to adjust the women. Ultimately I think Dench may be sent lead (no way Harvey campaigns all of them as supporting), though, if Public Enemies takes off with traction for Cotillard, she could wind up lead as well. Cruz already has a strong lead performance so, into supporting with her.

My sources (Read, the musical honks over at AD) tell me that Kidman is the lesser of the roles, so into the supporting race with her.

And I agree Triage is one to watch, if it gets a distributor.
148 2-24-2009 at 3:06 pm

John said...

In Nine, all the women are pretty much supporting. The whole story revolves around the lead male, Daniel Day-Lewis. I really can’t see Judi Dench going lead–I don’t think her part is that big (isn’t she Lilliane?)…

…If anyone of the women goes lead…and it’s a stretch…it will probably be Marion Cotillard, who plays Luisa, his wife…Penelope Cruz and Nicole Kidman’s roles are undoubtedly supporting (although Cruz definitely has the baitiest role out of anyone in the whole film). Kidman could get a nod too…she sings the beautiful song “Unusual Way”…we’ll see how she pulls it off, although I’m agreeing with Kris that the Sophie Loren will be the other woman nominated, playing Daniel Day-Lewis’s mother…

…no idea how Kate Hudson will do, I think they wrote her role specifically for the movie…

…can you tell by now that Nine is my most anticipated movie of the year? If it’s done right, it will be a knockout. It has a fantastic story–touching, moving, unique…great music, and obviously a great cast. Can’t wait!
149 2-24-2009 at 3:11 pm

Aaron said...

if Hilary Swank (God forbid) won again, would that make some kind of record? 3/3 nominations and wins?
150 2-24-2009 at 3:41 pm

JAB said...

Yeah, there’s no way all of those actresses would be campaigned as supporting.
151 2-24-2009 at 3:56 pm

Jim said...

Does anyone think “Where the wild things are” has a chance? Is it a kids only film?
152 2-24-2009 at 6:10 pm

AmericanRequiem said...

im hoping where the wild things are has a chance
153 2-24-2009 at 9:41 pm

Glenn said...

Kris, I know.

Also: John Malkovich for “Disgrace”
154 2-25-2009 at 1:35 am

Ron Cruz said...

I’m currently fixing my own “never-too-early” predictions, but here’s one that I’m pretty confident about predicting now and that hasn’t been mentioned yet: “The Lovely Bones” for Best Visual Effects. 1) It’s a Peter Jackson film; all three “LOTR” films and “King Kong” won that; and 2) a big part of the book (and the film, undoubtedly) is set in heaven. Surely Jackson’s “heaven” would involve a lot of CGI magic?
155 2-25-2009 at 9:43 am

McAllister said...

Haven’t they actually said that Marion Cottilard has the lead female role in the film? People were talking like it was Cruz but the producers came out and said it was his wife that had the biggest part.
156 2-25-2009 at 10:11 am

Sean said...

Expect Streep to land again for playing Julia Child in Julie & Julia. The word is she is astonishing. They may throw her a bone for not winning Sunday night.
157 2-25-2009 at 10:45 am

j said...

IвЂ™m not really feeling Kathryn Bigelow, if only because at the Indies, her actors were nominated but she and her movie were not; and it just feels like if sheвЂ™s not a contender there, she wonвЂ™t be an Oscar contender.
I think Demitri Martin, MoвЂ™Nique, and Carey Mulligan would be interesting breakouts. I watched the first two eps of DemitriвЂ™s show after I read this list, and heвЂ™s charming and charismatic and has good timing. The show itself is a bit inconsistent, and itвЂ™s hard to tell how good of an actor he is from sketch and standup type comedy, but IвЂ™m rooting for him.
I wonder if Taraji P. Henson & Ed Harris (the second-most nominated actor in the last fifteen years, and he still has no wins) in Once Fallen or Ken Watanabe & Rinko Kikuchi (the only Oscar-nominated performers alive) in Shanghai can do something.
Speaking of Harris, the other most-nominated (or, in one evil case, just winngest) actors in the game this year seem to have a good chance to repeat: Judi, Meryl, Depp (0/3)вЂ¦and, unfortunately, Hoffman (freaking three in the last four years) and the Swank.

My early predix: Taking Woodstock (Wishful thinking, yes, but Eastwood/Swank, Marshall, and Scorsese have Best Pictures this decade. Lee does not. Of course, by that logic The Hulk would have been a contender.), Marshall (In your top ten, the directors either have recent wins or do not have that much pedigree yet; he didnвЂ™t win for Best Pic Chicago.); Johnny Depp (for the 0/3 wins thing, though Leonardo DiCaprio has the same record, albeit over a longer period of time, and Kate and Leo in consecutive years could be interesting); anyone but Hilary SwankвЂ¦um, Saoirse if they want to reward young talent, Thompson or Pfeiffer if they want old, er, comeback, talent; Matt Damon (only one in your top ten besides already-winner Foxx whoвЂ™s been nominated, and heвЂ™s in a lot of baity movies this year), Meryl Streep (one of nine in your top ten to have at least a nomination, but again itвЂ™s been over 25 years; I feel that a nom will be the reward for MoвЂ™Nique and sheвЂ™ll have a Hathaway season, while WilliamsвЂ¦not to be insensitive, but I think she may benefit from sympathy to be a contender upon getting her second nomination, her first being the one where she met him, especially since ScorseseвЂ™s much baitier than Wendy/Lucy).
Screenplay, Lee/Scorsese/EastwoodвЂ™s films should contend, but EastwoodвЂ™s last big one didnвЂ™t win screenplay. And I donвЂ™t think translating a musical from stage to screen requires brilliant screenwriting. Original, itвЂ™s about time Pixar wins.

One interesting category is Animated Feature. Three of your top five are being distributed by Disney: the frontrunner Pixar film (Pixar has a 4 for 6 record.), a Miyazaki film (Spirited Away won the only time there were five nominees.), and a Disney Princess film (its first in a decade; in the 90вЂ™s, Disney won Best Song and Best Score the majority of the time, got the only animated Best Pic nom ever for Beauty and the Beast, and two Best Comedy/Musical Globes). Dreamworks won the first time the award was presented but hasnвЂ™t since. Coraline is the best-reviewed film of the (short) year thus far, distributed by Focus, which does pretty well with pushing critically acclaimed but un-blockbuster-y fare. IвЂ™m hoping that this is the year when an animated film finally is Beauty and the BeastвЂ™s successor, hopefully due to backlash about Wall-EвЂ™s robbing that doesnвЂ™t lead to reverse backlash against animated filmsвЂ¦well, as long as itвЂ™s not the Dreamworks film (Besides the double whammy of greatness in вЂ™98, none of their animated films has been good; yes, I hate Shrek.).

Nominees (much of it being based on your tops, though for the categories you put new-ish talents in, I mostly filled in the already-acclaimed)
Picture: Nine, Woodstock, Mandela, ShutterвЂ¦Up/Princess & the Frog.
Director вЂ“ Same as above, but with Foreign-nominated (Oscar/Globe/Bafta) Mira Nair instead of animated, though I would like the director-writers of Little Mermaid and Aladdin to be rewarded.
Actress вЂ“ Pfeiffer, Ronan, Thompson, Swinton, WeiszвЂ¦perhaps Audrey (Maybe Cotillard factor could help.)
Actor вЂ“ Depp, Bardem, DiCaprio, Day-Lewis, FreemanвЂ¦perhaps Martin for newness
Sup Actress вЂ“ Cotillard, Mirren, Williams, MoвЂ™Nique, StreepвЂ¦maybe Dench.
Sup Actor вЂ“ Matt Damon, Sean Penn (Tree of Life), Djimon Hounsou (Tempest), Richard Gere (Amelia), Ben Kinglsey (Shutter Island)вЂ¦maybe Groff (Tony nominee)
Adapted Screenplay – Cheri (Oscar winner), Shutter Island (Oscar winner), Amelia (Oscar winner), Lovely Bones (Oscar winner), Woodstock (Oscar/Bafta/WGA nominee)вЂ¦maybe Nine (Bafta winner)
Animated вЂ“ Up, Ponyo, Princess

Of your top tens in techs, IвЂ™d root for Harry Potter (art direction/makeup/visual effects), though the films arenвЂ™t as good as the best books of all time), Nine (Cinematography, although maybe IвЂ™m just thinking of ChicagoвЂ™s), Potter or Nine (Costumes), Woodstock (Editing), Up (Score, Sound, SoundвЂ¦oh, and not tech but Original Screenplay as an animated film still hasnвЂ™t won).

…Yeah, I like to procrastinate rather than doing actual work.
158 2-25-2009 at 10:50 am

j said...

Oh, I meant to add “Asian” re: Rinko & Watanabe; clearly, there are many other Oscar-nominated performers alive.

And I meant winningest, not winngest.
159 2-25-2009 at 11:18 am

j said...

I read over my predictions, which don’t correspond w/Adapted, so:

Screenplay, of the big films, ShutterвЂ™s writer has an Oscar. MandelaвЂ™s is new. I donвЂ™t think translating a musical from stage to screen requires brilliant screenwriting. SoвЂ¦Woodstock.
160 2-25-2009 at 12:37 pm

tdr said...

Here is who i want to see nominated this year:
Mo’nique
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Emily Mortimer(Shutter Island)- hopefully a big part
Mark Ruffalo
Richard Kind
Penelope Cruz (Broken Embraces)
Bill Nighe (The Boat That Rocked)
and… there might be someone else, but i can’t recall someone else…
Anyway, just some thoughts on the race.
161 2-25-2009 at 12:56 pm

Ivan said...

Breakthrough performances to watch in 2009

Kodi Smitt McPhee/The Road
Carrie Mulligan/ An Education
Demetri Martin/Taking Woodstock
Channing Tatum/Public Enemies
Fergie/Nine
Mo’ nique/Precious
Rupert Friend/Cheri
Sam Worthington/Avatar
Diane Kruger/Inglorious Basterds
162 2-25-2009 at 2:06 pm

head_wizard said...

Nice starting list Kris, the best picture nominations look plausable till the unexpected newcomer appears around Toronto.
163 2-25-2009 at 2:21 pm

Josh said...

I have read Shutter Island and Emily Mortimer’s character is an extremely juicy role. I think she will get a nomination.
164 2-25-2009 at 3:01 pm

JAB said...

part of me wonders if Mortimer will go lead for Shutter Island, so Williams can get supporting, or vice versa. I’m not familiar with the plot, so they could both be strictly supporting roles.
The Supporting Actress race is gonna be quite loaded this year, what with all of the actresses from Nine, and Mo’Nique seeming like a distinct possibility this far out.
165 2-25-2009 at 3:02 pm

Troy said...

I’ll take a stab at best picture and actor:

Taking Woodstock
Nine
Tree of Life
The Lovely Bones
Biutiful

Lewis
Mortensen
Freeman
Bardem
Damon
166 2-25-2009 at 3:08 pm

Josh said...

JAB

Both are supporting characters in the book but Emily Mortimer’s character plays a bigger part.
167 2-25-2009 at 3:14 pm

Michael said...

Leonardo diCaprio’s character is so effing juicy in Shutter Island. There is NO WAY he is not being nominated. I’m sorry, but just no way he will be ignored. Not only because of his character, what a great actor he is, but also because Scorsese is directing.

Michelle Williams has a WAY stronger chance to be a supp. actress nominee over Emily Mortimer. her role is way juicier, and bigger than Emily’s.

Also think Ben Kingsley has a stronger chance than Mark Ruffalo for a supp. actor nod…. but I can see itgoing either way, or mybe even both.
168 2-25-2009 at 3:58 pm

Glenn said...

Emily Mortimer plays a mental patient, right? Which is why I think she’ll be nominated (and win, since I said it in June. I need to keep that up! can’t give up now).

Also, all three of Julie Taymor’s movies have received costume nominations so I would think “The Tempest” is looking for even from this early stage.
169 2-25-2009 at 4:47 pm

expert said...

best movie; PUBLIC ENEMIES
best director; MICHAEL MANN
best actor; JOHNNY DEPP
170 2-25-2009 at 4:55 pm

Michael said...

Yes, Glenn, Emily plays a “mental patient” in one scene, but while Michelle’s character is not actually a mental “patient”, she IS mentally ill, and has way more scenes, that are way more baity…
171 2-25-2009 at 5:14 pm

Josh said...

Emily has more than one scene. Also keep in mind that they will probably expand her chacacter for the film.
172 2-25-2009 at 5:41 pm

austin said...

Michelle Williams has a decidedly pivotal role in Shutter Island, one which she herself called the most intense she’s ever played. I can’t say anymore having read the book, but it is extremely baity, very emotional and sad and she’s the kind of actress who’s starting to really percolate.
173 2-25-2009 at 7:02 pm

Michael said...

Ah, ah, ah– I said only one scene as a “mental patient”…

*SPOILER*

She has a couple other scenes, as the nurse that she actually is… and those scenes aren’t very interesting for her at all…. and no, her part hads not been expanded for the film.
174 2-25-2009 at 8:55 pm

JAB said...

in conclusion: Michelle Williams more likely to get a nod? and more likely to go lead if either of them do?
175 2-25-2009 at 9:03 pm

Josh said...

I think Michelle could go lead. She is a supporting character in the book but they probably have changed some things from the book. Plus there have been plenty of supporting roles that have been considered lead. I mean just look at Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line.
176 2-26-2009 at 2:01 am

Kate Lasshelly said...

Meryl Streep is leading honey, you can not underestimate her like that. She is lead, and taking home the third. Sorry for your article…
177 2-26-2009 at 2:05 am

Maria Halls said...

MERYL STREEP will no be nominated for supporting, she is lead. Her character’s name is in title. What the fuck you are trying to do? Screaming she is supporting so they listen to you and get her in supporting. If they listened to you honey, Cate Blanchett would be this year’s Best Actress winner. Live on it, and go find yourself something new.
178 2-26-2009 at 10:20 am

Vanessa said...

I think there might be a lot of repeat nominations. Meryl Streep for Lead, Amy Adams for Supporting. Robert Downey Jr for Sherlock Holmes. Brad Pitt and Sean Penn could both get supporting noms for Tree of Life. I heard Brad redeems himself after many were disappointed with Benjamin Button. I wish Brad and Robert Downey Jr had not got nominated for these past Oscars because it might reduce their chance at being nominated for the upcoming Oscars for actual deserving performances.

I also think The Last Station might be a strong awards contender. Christopher Plummer for Best Actor and Helen Mirren for Supporting Actress. I am pretty sure Johnny Depp will be nominated for Public Enemies. Morgan Freeman for Best Actor. Emily Blunt might get nominated for The Young Victoria. I heard William Dafoe for Fireflies in the Garden was really good.
179 2-26-2009 at 10:26 am

Vanessa said...

Best Actor: Christopher Plummer, Morgan Freeman, Robert Downey Jr, Johnny Depp, Matt Damon.

Best Actress: Meryl Streep, Emily Blunt, Hilary Swank, Julianne Moore, Rachel Weisz

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Sean Penn,
Guy Pearce, William Dafoe, Richard Gere

Best Supporting Actress: Fiona Shaw, Helen Mirren, Rachel McAdams, Amy Adams

Of course, it is still early. I don’t think Nine will make the Oscar cut in the major categories.
180 2-26-2009 at 10:53 am

Troy said...

“Brad Pitt and Sean Penn could both get supporting noms for Tree of Life.”

I don’t know what the Tree of Life will be like, but Malick doesn’t have a history of having his actors getting nominated, largely due to his style of filmmaking.
181 2-26-2009 at 11:15 am

Josh said...

I don’t think Meryl Streep is going to get a nomination in a Nora Ephron film. Also people are ignoring Peter Sarsgaard in An Education, Hugh Dancy in Adam, Rose Byrne in Adam, and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Away We Go. Gyllenhaal and Sarsgaard are both due for a nomination and Sarsgaard has an accent in this one. Dancy got rave reviews for Adam at Sundance which was picked up by Fox Searchlight and is about a man with Asperger’s syndrome who falls in love with Rose Byrne. We all know how great Fox Searchlight is at getting these films nominated.
182 2-26-2009 at 11:59 am

paul said...

I think Streep will get in for Julie and Julia. Yes itВґs a Norah Ephron film (but Streep can get nominated without a great director, Wes Craven anyone?)

Julia Child is a yummy part (we all know how the academy love the biopicparts) and early word on her performance is great. I think people who donВґt predict her for this is clearly underestimating her chances.

Oh and by the way people who have seen the film says that Streep and Adams are co-leads, if anything itВґs more StreepВґs movie. So Streep is lead most likely.
183 2-26-2009 at 12:03 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Maria Hallis: From afar, those working on the film indicate supporting.
184 2-26-2009 at 12:05 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

I guess that should also be aimed at Kate, though the sniping (and uninformed sniping, which is worse) from the two of you over an actress’s placement in my charts is a bit bizarre.
185 2-26-2009 at 12:11 pm

AmericanRequiem said...

what about cate blanchett in Robin Hood?
186 2-26-2009 at 12:13 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Is that movie even happening this year? Robin Hood, that is.
187 2-26-2009 at 12:14 pm

AmericanRequiem said...

Its set to start filming in early april on a budget of 130 million, although Im more curious about Speilbergs Lincoln myself
188 2-26-2009 at 1:17 pm

JAB said...

So i had a thought… If “Let the Right One In” was not eligible for last year’s oscars… could it be eligible for this year’s oscars?
189 2-26-2009 at 1:25 pm

Josh said...

Paul, Wes Craven is a great director. Seriously A Nightmare on Elm Street is a masterpiece of the genre and Red Eye, Scream, Scream 2, and Last House on the Left are all really good films. Nora Ephron hasn’t shown anywhere near the craft that Wes Craven has shown.
190 2-26-2009 at 2:51 pm

Jim said...

Kris, why haven’t you placed Robert Downey Jr in your top 10 for Sherlock Holmes? It certainly is a baity role, so I guess you don’t have faith in the film?

Same question about Rachel Weisz in Agora.
191 2-26-2009 at 3:15 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

No real reason for Weisz but for Downey I don’t have a lot of faith in the film…yet. Not as an Oscar vehicle, anyway.
192 2-26-2009 at 3:18 pm

AmericanRequiem said...

kris why is it that you dont have the Lovely Bones in top 10 for multiple categories, low expectations?
193 2-26-2009 at 4:59 pm

Michael said...

Michelle Williams’ characrer in Shutter Island has not been boosted. The only lead character male or female is DiCaprio’s.

Ruffalo, Kingsley, Williams, Sydow, Mortimer, Clarckson are ALL supporting…
194 2-26-2009 at 6:39 pm

Piers said...

Too soon to predict real nominees but these below are mine possible award considerations in the main categories:

Picture:

The Burning Plains
Bright Star
Mandela
Tetro
Shutter Island
Creation
The Informant
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Soloist
Public Enemies
Taking Woodstock
The Tree of Life
Winged Creatures
An Education
Peacock

Directing:

Peter Jackson вЂ“ The Lovely Bones
Francis Ford Coppola вЂ“ Tetro
Clint Eastwood вЂ“ Mandela
Ang Lee вЂ“ Taking Woodstock
Michael Mann вЂ“ Public Enemies
Rob Marshall вЂ“ Nine
Lone Scherfig вЂ“ An Education
Jon Amiel вЂ“ Creation
Steven Soderbergh вЂ“ The Informant
Martin Scorsese вЂ“ Shutter Island
Jane Campion вЂ“ Bright Star
Kathryn Bigelow вЂ“ The Hurt Locker
Joe Wright вЂ“ The Soloist
Terence Malik вЂ“ The Tree of Life
Michael Hoffman вЂ“ The Last Station
Michael Lander – Peacock

Actor in a Leading Role:

Matt Damon вЂ“ The Informat
Christopher Plummer вЂ“ The Last Station
Paul Bettany вЂ“ Creation
Jim Carey вЂ“ I Love You, Phillip Morris
Daniel Day Lewis вЂ“ Nine
Johnny Depp вЂ“ Public Enemies
Leonard Di Caprio вЂ“ Shutter Island
Robert Downey Jr вЂ“ The Soloist
Morgan Freeman вЂ“ Mandela
Vincent Gallo вЂ“ Tetro
Demitri Martin вЂ“ Taking Woodstock
Viggo Mortensen вЂ“ The Road
Edward Norton вЂ“ Leaves of Grass
Ben Winshaw вЂ“ Bright Star
Brad Pitt вЂ“ The Tree of Life

Actress in a Leading Role:

Amy Adams вЂ“ Julie and Julia
Halle Berry вЂ“ Frankie and Alice
Penelope Cruz вЂ“ Broken Embraces
Hilary Swank вЂ“ Amelia
Carey Mulligan вЂ“ An Education
Michelle Pfeiffer вЂ“ Cheri
Tilda Swinton вЂ“ Julia
Saoirse Ronan вЂ“ The Lovely Bones
Audrey Tatou вЂ“ Coco Avant Chanel
Robin Wright Penn вЂ“ The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
Charlise Theron вЂ“ The Burning Plains

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Jamie Foxx вЂ“ The Soloist
Billy Crudup вЂ“ Public Enemies
Ewan McGregor вЂ“ Amelia
Mark Ruffalo вЂ“ Shutter Island
Jeff Daniels вЂ“ Away We Go
Jeffrey Dean Morgan вЂ“ All Good Things
Channing Tatum вЂ“ Public Enemies
Alfred Molina вЂ“ An Education
Kodi Scott-McPhee вЂ“ The Road
Ray Winstone вЂ“ The Edge of Darkness
Richard Kind вЂ“ A Serious Man

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Kathy Bates вЂ“ Cheri
Patricia Clarkson вЂ“ Whatever Works
Penelope Cruz вЂ“ Nine
Vera Farmiga вЂ“ Up in the Air
Kirsten Dunst вЂ“ All Good Things
MoвЂ™Nique вЂ“ Precious
Susan Sarandon вЂ“ The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep вЂ“ Julie and Julia
Imelda Staunton вЂ“ Taking Woodstock
Maribel Verdu вЂ“ Tetro
Helen Mirren вЂ“ The Last Station
Sophia Loren вЂ“ Nine
Ellen Burstyn вЂ“ Lovely, Still
Ellen Page – Peacock
Emily Mortimer вЂ“ Shutter Island
195 2-27-2009 at 7:20 am

paul said...

Josh:
Well taste differs I suppose…

LetВґs just say that Craven hasnВґt done anything remotely close to something appealing to the academy while Ephron has in fact been oscarnominated three times for screenplay (Silkwood, Harry met Sally and Sleepless).

I can just feel that Julia Child will be a great part for Streep and I still say that most people greatly underestimate StreepВґs chances for this.

I stand by that sheВґs a lead also. People who has attended screenings have said so.
196 2-27-2009 at 8:21 am

Mike V. said...

Where is Streep for Julie and Julia?
197 2-27-2009 at 10:31 am

JAB said...

Kris: You might want to add Gustavo Sanaolalla as a contender for the score of “Biutiful” He is 2/2 for oscars and tremendously talented
198 2-27-2009 at 2:36 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

Mike: Clearly listed in the supporting actress chart.
199 2-27-2009 at 2:39 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

paul: I don’t care what people who have attended screenings have said. I’m telling you what people responsible for MAKING THE MOVIE have said. Anything nowadays can be shoved off to one category or another, so things change, but right now, trust the truth: Meryl is expected to be campaigned in the supporting actress category.
200 2-27-2009 at 4:35 pm

eric said...

where the wild things are, maybe?
201 2-28-2009 at 2:01 pm

paul said...

Kris:
I guess you could be right. I think itВґs a part that could go either way, classic borderline situation.

One thing to take under consideration though, if Streep has a role that is borderline supp-lead she mostly campaigns lead unless she has another part that is a clearly lead. She has the Nancy Meyers part this year also so I guess she could be a possible double nominee.
202 2-28-2009 at 4:54 pm

alex andrews said...

here’s a tip — i’m hearing amazing things about the mendes movie ‘away we go’. apparently his best since american beauty, with breakout performances from maya rudolph and john krasinski. i hear that it is very funny, but also moving and emotional a la ‘juno’. a contender?
203 2-28-2009 at 6:07 pm

Jim said...

Isn’t Blood Meridian a contender? Todd Field is a really good film maker.
204 2-28-2009 at 7:07 pm

Troy said...

Yeah, if Blood Meridiean comes out this year, one would be wise to consider it. But, will it come out this year? I just checked IMDB, and it doesn’t have a cast.
205 2-28-2009 at 7:08 pm

Troy said...

Meridian*
206 3-01-2009 at 5:23 am

Glenn said...

“Meryl Streep is leading honey, you can not underestimate her like that. She is lead, and taking home the third. Sorry for your articleвЂ¦”

Hah. That comment made me LOL. The “Sorry for your article…” part just killed me. Like, the entire thing is worthless because you’re not predicting Streep (neither am I). Little known fact: Streep hasn’t been nominated for every single performance she’s ever done. And three nominated performances in a row is hard to do.

Kris, did you originally have Staunton in supporting or did you throw her in after the fact? I don’t remember seeing her name on there originally.
207 3-01-2009 at 9:37 am

Kristopher Tapley said...

Yeah, she was there from the start. Just a stab in the dark, really.
208 3-01-2009 at 11:41 am

Scott Ward said...

Kris, though I’m not expecting anything from Oscar and since things have slowed down I don’t feel like I’m wasting your time, do you know what the latest news is about the adaptation of the Hunter Thompson novel Rum Diary with Johnny Depp.
209 3-01-2009 at 12:03 pm

paul andersson said...

Glenn:

Streep doesnВґt get nominated for every role she does, thatВґs true. BUT she is in fact nominated for every third role she does which is astonishing. 45 movies and 15 nominations, you would think that some people would know better than to underestimate her.

Another fact: she has never done a biopic role without getting an oscarnomination for it so IВґd say that makes her oscarchances for Julie and Julia great. ThatВґs a fact you doubters should take under consideration, he he.
210 3-09-2009 at 4:28 pm

Bustray said...

Best Picture:
Nine
The Lovely Bones
The Human Factor
Biutiful
Killing Pablo (going out on a limb here; looks like it could possibly contend)

Best Director:
Rob Marshall, Nine
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Terrance Mallick, The Tree of Life
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor

Best Actor:
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Peter Saarsgard, An Education
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (right now, I compare Public Enemies to Changeling; a summer movie that gets a lot of award buzz, starring a big star that ultimately flops, it can only muster up a leading nom. for the star)
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Matt Damon,The Informant

Best Actress:
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia or Nancy Myers project (Streep is looking like a lock every year now)
Penelope CrГєz, Broken Embraces

Best Supp. Actor:
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Mark Ruffalo, Shutter Island
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Jonathan Groff, Taking Woodstock
Bill Nighy, The Boat That Rocked

Best Original Screenplay:
A Serious Man
Up
Biutiful
Away We Go
The Tree of Life

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Nine
The Lovely Bones
The Human Factor
Taking Woodstock
Killing Pablo

I’m predicting either Nine or The Lovely Bones is going to flop. But I’m putting both down anyways.
211 3-31-2009 at 8:09 am

Robert Hamer said...

Well, there goes ‘The Boat that Rocked’…
212 3-31-2009 at 11:12 am

Kristopher Tapley said...

Yep. Oh well.
213 4-10-2009 at 5:05 pm

Emily said...

As I each day goes by without predictions being updated, I die a little bit inside? Kris?
214 4-10-2009 at 6:55 pm

Kristopher Tapley said...

There’s been absolutely nothing to give me a reason to dig back into those things. No news, no films released that leap onto (or, really, off of) the radar. Nothing.

Year-round constant prediction analysis — it’s for the birds. Relax. After Cannes.
215 12-17-2009 at 8:51 am

Lucas said...

It’s fun reading this, now knowing some of the favourites for this year’s Oscar season :)

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