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SUNDAY CENTS: Holy hit

Posted by Chad Hartigan · 12:19 pm · May 18th, 2009

Angels & DemonsGod is so 2006. “Angels & Demons” was the number one movie at the box office this weekend but the $48 million it raked in is barely more than half of the $84.5 million registered by “The Da Vinci Code” in its opening frame. What happened? Three things.

First, the free publicity generated by the media and the “controversy” surrounding the first film’s opening was nowhere to be found this time. Second, the source material was much less popular. And third, the first film was generally considered pretty dull by critics and audiences. Add all that up and you have a lackluster debut when compared to the original, but on its own terms, you gotta be pretty happy with close to $50 million for an adult-leaning summer thriller. Especially when the film racked up $100 million in overseas territories this weekend as well.

“Star Trek” showed “Wolverine” and Mr. Hanks what happens when audiences love your product by dropping a solid 43% for a $43 million weekend. It even out-grossed “Angels & Demons” on Saturday and Sunday, so expect the weekday grosses to be neck and neck.  It will pass “Wolverine”’s gross on Monday or Tuesday. J.J. Abrams clearly got it right with moviegoers and this one could see as much as $250 million before it’s done. Don’t think that doesn’t affect the Oscars because it does, and nominations in the sound and visual effects categories, and perhaps other technical fields, are a safer bet than they were a few weeks ago.

Since “Wolverine” is pretty much already a box office non-factor, there’s not much else to report in the top 10, except that “Monsters vs. Aliens” dropped only 8% due to the fact that families have no other options out there. Expect that to bode well for “Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian,” as parents clearly want something to take their kids to and Ben Stiller is ready to deliver.

This weekend, I finally caught up with “Adventureland” and liked it more than I thought I would. Greg Mottola gets about 90% of it exactly right with only a few minor stumbles and the result was more than worthy of my $10.

Next weekend is Memorial Day so the grosses are counted through Monday. “Night at the Museum” has all the ingredients for a smash hit: popular predecessor, all-star cast with appeal to all ages, prime release date, etc. The only thing standing in the way of glory is Christian Bale and some terminators. Not since “Madagascar” and “The Longest Yard” in 2005 has Hollywood opened two big films on this weekend and even that match-up played second fiddle to the second weekend of “Star Wars: Episode III — Revenge of the Sith.”

This is a battle royale the likes of which we rarely see in Hollywood. “Terminator Salvation” opens on Thursday, which gives it a slight head start, but conventional wisdom states that some teens and adults will go to the family film but no kids or seniors will go to the sci-fi extravaganza. I’m thinking $95 million for “Terminator,” with a big chunk coming on Thursday, leaving “Night at the Museum” to take the weekend crown with $78 million or so through Monday.

Whew! But wait. The Wayans Brothers want in on this action. No, not the Wayans Brothers you already know, but their sons and nephews. That’s right. Damon Wayans Jr. and Damien Wayans are taking over the family name with “Dance Flick.” The expiration date on this type of comedy has long past so I can’t see more than $8 million for the four days.

Here are the weekend’s top domestic grossers, courtesy of Exhibitor Relations:

Weekend of Friday, May 15, 2009

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