In Contention

OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — August 31, 2009

NUTSHELL: The festival season is upon us and films are slowly starting to screen. The charts reflect some general slipping an sliding. “District 9” and “The Tree of Life” finally make their way into the considered hunt but it’s still a wait-and-see game until verdicts drop in Telluride, Venice and Toronto. And even after that storm has passed, we’ll still have to hold off a couple of months before we know anything of the perceived heavies — “Invictus,” “Nine,” “Amelia,” etc. But we’re wading out into the waters now, so answers should come fast and furious once we’re up and running.

Column: “Take a deep breath…”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Invictus”
Warner Bros. Pictures
—
2 “Nine”
The Weinstein Company
—
3 “An Education”
Sony Pictures Classics
up
4 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures
up
5 “Precious”
Lionsgate Films
down
6 “Up in the Air”
Paramount Pictures
up
7 “The Hurt Locker”
Summit Entertainment
up
8 “A Serious Man”
Focus Features
up
9 “Amelia”
Fox Searchlight Pictures
down
10 “Capitalism: A Love Story”
Overture Films
—
11 “The Tree of Life”
Apparition
NEW
12 “The Lovely Bones”
Paramount Pictures
down
13 “Avatar”
20th Century Fox
down
14 “Star Trek”
Paramount Pictures
down
15 “District 9”
Sony Pictures
NEW
16 “Where the Wild Things Are”
Warner Bros. Pictures
—
17 “The Cove”
Roadside Attractions
down
18 “The Road”
Dimension Films
up
19 “Inglourious Basterds”
The Weinstein Company
NEW
20 “Bright Star”
Apparition
down

DIRECTING
1 Clint Eastwood
“Invictus”
—
2 Rob Marshall
“Nine”
—
3 Lone Scherfig
“An Education”
up
4 Kathryn Bigelow
“The Hurt Locker”
up
5 Terrence Malick
“The Tree of Life”
NEW
6 Lee Daniels
“Precious”
down
7 Jason Reitman
“Up in the Air”
down
8 James Cameron
“Avatar”
—
9 Peter Jackson
“The Lovely Bones”
—
10 Joel Coen
“A Serious Man”
NEW

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Morgan Freeman
“Invictus”
—
2 Daniel Day-Lewis
“Nine”
—
3 George Clooney
“Up in the Air” (or “The Men Who Stare at Goats”)
—
4 Matt Damon
“The Informant!”
up
5 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road”
down
6 Jeremy Renner
“The Hurt Locker”
down
7 Sean Penn
“The Tree of Life”
—
8 Michael Stuhlbarg
“A Serious Man”
—
9 Ethan Hawke
“Brooklyn’s Finest”
—
10 Peter Sarsgaard
“An Education”
—

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Hilary Swank
“Amelia”
—
2 Carey Mulligan
“An Education”
—
3 Meryl Streep
“Julie & Julia” (or “It’s Complicated”)
—
4 Saoirse Ronan
“The Lovely Bones”
up
5 Abbie Cornish
“Bright Star”
down
6 Penélope Cruz
“Broken Embraces”
—
7 Gabourey Sidibe
“Precious”
—
8 Charlize Theron
“The Burning Plain”
—
9 Audrey Tautou
“Coco Before Chanel”
—
10 Michelle Pfeiffer
“Chéri”
—

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Matt Damon
“Invictus”
—
2 Richard Kind
“A Serious Man”
—
3 Christoph Waltz
“Inglourious Basterds”
—
4 Richard Gere
“Amelia” (or “Brooklyn’s Finest”)
—
5 Alfred Molina
“An Education”
—
6 Stanley Tucci
“The Lovely Bones” (or “Julie & Julia”)
—
7 Anthony Mackie
“The Hurt Locker”
—
8 Jeff Bridges
“The Men Who Stare at Goats”
NEW
9 Paul Schneider
“Bright Star”
down
10 Tobey Maguire
“Brothers”
down

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Mo’nique
“Precious”
—
2 Judi Dench
“Nine”
—
3 Rachel Weisz
“The Lovely Bones”
—
4 Penélope Cruz
“Nine”
—
5 Anna Kendrick
“Up in the Air”
—
6 Marion Cotillard
“Public Enemies” (or “Nine”)
—
7 Jessica Chastain
“The Tree of Life”
NEW
8 Sophia Loren
“Nine”
NEW
9 Nicole Kidman
“Nine”
up
10 Imelda Staunton
“Taking Woodstock”
down

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “An Education”
Written by Nick Hornby
Based on the memoir by Lynn Barber
up
2 “Precious”
Written by Damien Paul
Based on the novel “Push” by Sapphire
down
3 “Up in the Air”
Written by Jason Reitman
Based on the novel by Walter Kirn
—
4 “The Lovely Bones”
Written by Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh
Based on the novel by Alice Sebold
—
5 “Nine”
Written by Michael Tolkin, Anthony Minghella
Based on the novel by Arthur L. Kopit
—
6 “Invictus”
Written by Anthony Peckham
Based on the book “Playing the Enemy” by John Carlin
—
7 “The Informant!”
Written by Scott Z. Burns
Based on the book by Kurt Eichenwald
NEW
8 “Amelia”
Written by Ronald Bass
Source material to be determined
down
9 “Where the Wild Things Are”
Written by Dave Eggers, Spike Jonze
Based on the book by Maurice Sendak
—
10 “The Men Who Stare at Goats”
Written by Peter Straughan
Based on the book by Jon Ronson
NEW

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Up”
Written by Bob Peterson
up
2 “A Serious Man”
Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
up
3 “The Hurt Locker”
Written by Mark Boal
up
4 “The Tree of Life”
Written by Terrence Malick
NEW
5 “(500) Days of Summer”
Written by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
up
6 “Broken Embraces”
Written by Pedro Almodóvar
down
7 “District 9”
Written by Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell
NEW
8 “Avatar”
Written by James Cameron
—
9 “It’s Complicated”
Written by Nancy Meyers
NEW
10 “Bright Star”
Written by Jane Campion
down

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
3 “Coraline”
Focus Features
—
3 “Ponyo”
Walt Disney Pictures
up
4 “9”
Focus Features
up
5 “The Princess and the Frog”
Walt Disney Pictures
up
6 “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
20th Century Fox
down
7 “Monsters vs. Aliens”
DreamWorks SKG
down
8 “A Christmas Carol”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
9 “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs”
Sony Pictures
—
10 “Planet 51”
Sony Pictures
—