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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — October 6, 2008

NUTSHELL: The more that materials from “W.” are unleashed on the public, the better the film appears to be. Room is made this week for Josh Brolin’s lead performance, while Elizabeth Banks holds strong with the supporting ladies. The question now is, can room be made for Scott Glenn, Richard Dreyfuss or Toby Jones? Meanwhile, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” made some surges, looking better and better, and “Slumdog Millionaire” pushes into the predicted five for Best Picture. “Milk” still seems to be the frontrunner from afar, with a modest approach amid the rubble. Time will tell.

Column: “Who we are, who we want to be”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories


BEST PICTURE
1 “Milk”
Focus Features
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
up
3 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
down
4 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
up
5 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
up
6 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
up
7 “The Soloist”
DreamWorks SKG
down
8 “Gran Torino”
Warner Bros. Pictures
9 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage
up
10 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
NEW


DIRECTING
1 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
2 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
up
3 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
up
4 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
down
5 Christopher Nolan
“The Dark Knight”
up
6 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
up
7 Darren Aronofsky
“The Wrestler”
up
8 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino” (or “Changeling”)
9 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
NEW
10 Edward Zwick
“Defiance”


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
2 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
3 Sean Penn
“Milk”
4 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
5 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Soloist”
6 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
up
7 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
down
8 Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”
9 Josh Brolin
“W.”
NEW
10 Benicio Del Toro
“Che”


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Kristin Scott Thomas
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
up
2 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
down
3 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
4 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
5 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
6 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
7 Melissa Leo
“Frozen River”
8 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
NEW
9 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
down
10 Michelle Williams
“Wendy and Lucy”
down


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”
up
3 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
4 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
5 James Franco
“Milk”
6 Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Road”
down
7 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
NEW
8 Christian McKay
“Me and Orson Welles”
9 Peter O’Toole
“Dean Spanley”
10 Eddie Marsan
“Happy-Go-Lucky”


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
4 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
5 Elsa Zylberstein
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
6 Rosemarie Dewitt
“Rachel Getting Married”
up
7 Elizabeth Banks
“W.”
8 Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth” (or “The Boy in Striped Pyjamas”)
up
9 Hiam Abbas
“The Visitor”
NEW
10 Catherine Keener
“The Soloist” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
down


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
2 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
4 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the short story by Richard Yates
5 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
up
6 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
up
7 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
up
8 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
down
9 “The Road”
Written by Joe Penhall
Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy
down
10 “Body of Lies”
Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian
Based on the book by David Ignatius
down


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
2 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
3 “I’ve Loved You So Long”
Written by Philippe Claudel
4 “The Soloist”
Written by Susannah Grant
5 “Rachel Getting Married”
Written by Jenny Lumet
6 “The Visitor”
Written by Thomas McCarthy
up
7 “Gran Torino”
Written by Nick Schenk
up
8 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
down
9 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann
up
10 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
down


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
4 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
5 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
6 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
7 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
9 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
10 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures

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