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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — November 25, 2008

NUTSHELL: The home stretch is finally visible on the horizon. Films are both rising up to expectations and failing to meet them with equal measure, but considerable exhibitions of “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “The Reader” this week have written their stories in the charts below. The former has gone over quite well with guild members left in tears and unfazed by a nearly three hour running time (bringing Cate Blanchett to light as, quite possibly, the one to beat for Best Actress). The latter, meanwhile, has left a number of viewers cold aside from just myself and will struggle to find room in a number of categories. Still to come is the Clint Eastwood surprise (more and more considered an acting vehicle rather than a Best Picture possibility) and the still mysterious “Seven Pounds” (which has drawn some “Crash” comparisons and, from one second hand source, is said to be quite the dramatic accomplishment). In another week and a half, all questions will be answered…then it’s a whole new challenge. What will the Academy like in this weak season?

Column: “Insert witty Oscar column headline here”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories


BEST PICTURE
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
2 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
3 “Milk”
Focus Features
4 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
5 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
6 “The Dark Knight”
Warner Bros. Pictures
7 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
up
8 “The Wrestler”
Fox Searchlight Pictures
NEW
9 “Gran Torino”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
10 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage


DIRECTING
1 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
2 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
3 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
4 Christopher Nolan
“The Dark Knight”
5 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
6 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
7 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
up
8 Darren Aronofsky
“The Wrestler”
NEW
9 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino” (or “Changeling”)
10 Edward Zwick
“Defiance”


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Sean Penn
“Milk”
2 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
3 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
4 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
5 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road”
6 Josh Brolin
“W.”
up
7 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
down
8 Benicio Del Toro
“Che”
9 Richard Jenkins
“The Visitor”
10 Dustin Hoffman
“Last Chance Harvey”


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
up
2 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”
down
3 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
down
4 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
down
5 Kristin Scott Thomas
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
down
6 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
down
7 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
down
8 Kate Beckinsale
“Nothing But the Truth”
up
9 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
down
10 Michelle Williams
“Wendy and Lucy”


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
3 Dev Patel
“Slumdog Millionaire”
4 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
5 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
6 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
up
7 Eddie Marsan
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
8 Bill Irwin
“Rachel Getting Married”
up
9 Ralph Fiennes
“The Reader” (or “The Duchess”)
down
10 Liev Schrieber
“Defiance”


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
4 Rosemarie DeWitt
“Rachel Getting Married”
5 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
6 Kate Winslet
“The Reader”
7 Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”
NEW
8 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
down
9 Hiam Abbas
“The Visitor”
down
10 Elsa Zylberstein
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
down


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
up
2 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
down
3 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the short story by Richard Yates
4 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
5 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
6 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
7 “Gomorrah”
Written by Maurizio Braucci, Ugo Chiti, Gianni Di Gregorio, Matteo Garrone, Massimo Gaudiso, Roberto Saviano
Based on the book by Roberto Saviano
up
7 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
down
9 “The Class”
Written by François Bégaudeau, Robin Campillo, Laurent Cantet
Based on the book by François Bégaudeau
10 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
2 “Rachel Getting Married”
Written by Jenny Lumet
3 “The Visitor”
Written by Thomas McCarthy
4 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
5 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
6 “Gran Torino”
Written by Nick Schenk
7 “The Wrestler”
Written by Robert Siegel
up
8 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann
down
9 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
10 “Last Chance Harvey”
Written by Joel Hopkins
down


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
4 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
5 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
6 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
7 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
9 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
10 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures

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