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2008 OSCAR PREDICTION ARCHIVE
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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — August 3, 2009
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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — February 20, 2009 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — February 20, 2009 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — February 23, 2009 (YEAR IN ADVANCE)
OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — February 23, 2009 (YEAR IN ADVANCE)
OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — February 9, 2009
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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — January 12, 2009
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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — January 19, 2009 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — January 19, 2009 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — January 26, 2009
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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — October 13, 2008
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OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — October 6, 2008
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THE CONTENDERS: Best Actor
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THE CONTENDERS: Best Sound Editing
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THE CONTENDERS: Best Visual Effects
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THE CONTENDERS: Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Wardrobe sketches from ‘The Reader’

Tag: Box Office

BOX OFFICE: ‘Lion’ roars at the top

Disney found a somewhat soft spot for children’s films in the 2011 schedule to slot “The Lion King 3D,” and they came away with a healthy #1 take this weekend. Assuming you’re okay with that being added to the film’s already impressive overall take from the summer of 1994, it leap-frogs “Finding Nemo” to become the third-highest grossing animated film of all time. Now that I look at the figures, “Drive” actually opened on a lot more screens than I thought, but I’m nevertheless a bit surprised it bested “Straw Dogs” (which itself was even held in check by the still-chugging “The Help”).

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

September 18, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Contagion’ finally stops ‘The Help,’ ‘Warrior’ stumbles in the first round

I don’t pretend to be a box office expert, but I have to think five million for “Warrior” on opening weekend is a disaster for that film. What’s the ceiling when you start out there? It has to be low. Money was always going to be the difference for its Oscar chances. If it hit, there would have been a lot of potential. But now it’ll be lucky to eek out that nod for Nick Nolte. Meanwhile, “Contagion” and its all-star cast predictably took the weekend. It’s a smart but entertaining segue from summer to fall. And “The Help” is still chugging along, nailing down the #2 spot and cruising toward $150 million.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

September 11, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘The Help’ makes it a three-peat

Earlier in the week “The Help” crossed the $100 million dollar mark, but all eyes were on a potential third-straight weekend at the top of the box office chart. And, well, here we are. Bravo to Disney for finding a spread of time that could allow the film slide to this designation and surely become the only film to do so this year. The drop from last weekend was next to non-existent (though a handful of screens were added), but this fire is going to keep burning for a while. With “Warrior” and “Contagion” hitting next weekend, the film’s days as lead box office dog are surely over, but it’s nevertheless an impressive stay.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

September 4, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘The Help’ stays on top

At the end of the day, “The Help” could potentially be the #1 film at the box office for three straight weeks, a feat no film — not even “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2” — could manage in 2011. That’s plenty of fuel for the upcoming Best Picture push. And though it may be the dog days of summer, with no real competition out there, that kind of nuance will just fade away when publicity starts banging the drum on the film’s box office.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

August 28, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Help,’ I need some money, ‘Help,’ not just any money

So, “The Help” took the top spot at the box office in a rather thin weekend for new releases. But it’s the hold that matters, and this one clearly has staying power. Combined with the impact it’s having with Academy types, that makes a contender, folks, and you’ll see the film, Davis, Spencer and the costumes chalked up for nominations in tomorrow’s predictions update. We’ll just have to see how much staying power it has, because mid-August is an early release for an Oscar hopeful. There’s really not much else to say elsewhere.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

August 21, 2011
BOX OFFICE: Our ‘Help’ in ‘Apes’ Past

Okay, so now you know why I’m not usually charged with box-office pun duties. Come back to the five and dime, Chad Hartigan, Chad Hartigan, and so on. Still, it doesn’t take a prodigious number-cruncher — lucky, since I’m not one — to tell that this is quite a result for “The Help.” Even accounting for bestselling source material, for a female-driven, racially-themed drama in which the biggest star is the still-green Emma Stone to come this close to toppling a summer popcorner as robust as “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” is pretty spectacular: expect a strong hold as word of mouth for Disney’s cuddly civil-rights film builds, buttressing the eventual Oscar campaign. (For the sake of comparison, the far more star-powered “The Blind Side” debuted with $34 million in 2009.)

Surely the week’s unhappiest new release, meanwhile, falls outside the Top 10: “Glee: The 3D Concert Movie” pulled in a miserable $5.7 million, suggesting that the show’s many fans can still tell the difference between a film and an iTunes playlist in three dimensions. I’d worry that we’ve collectively lost our sense of wonder, but people are still going to see “Final Destination 5,” so let’s not panic.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

August 14, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Apes’ rose

I’m no box office expert, but while $54 million is obviously a great late-summer number for “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” I can’t help but wonder if it would have had a shot at more bank if it had been let out of the bag earlier via advance press screenings. Regardless, word of mouth could keep its legs strong, and I’m sure Fox is more than happy with this. “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” hit a billion worldwide earlier in the week and will be lapped domestically by “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2” later this week. “Cowboys & Aliens,” meanwhile, is toast.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

August 7, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Cowboys’ and ‘Smurfs’ photo finish

After winning the day Friday, “The Smurfs” (which somehow has an audience) managed to dip down and line up neck and neck with the under-performing “Cowboys & Aliens.” Meanwhile, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2” is on course to be the fastest worldwide billion-dollar grosser, and is likely to take the domestic crown, too (a first when the franchise was up against a “Transformers” installment). “Midnight in Paris” dropped out of the top 10 again but still managed a million more bucks.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

July 31, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘America,’ f*** yeah

So “Captain America: The First Avenger” managed to hold the Harry Potter buzz wave to one weekend crown by coming out on top this week. I think it’s a pretty solid number given the givens, but anyway, my eyes are on that #10 spot. Woody Allen’s locomotive keeps chugging along.

(Courtesy: Box Office Mojo)

July 24, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Harry Potter’ and the Record-Breaking Hit

We all saw this coming. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2,” the culmination of 10 years of filmmaking that racked up tons of dollars along the way, won the box office this weekend. Things started with the highest opening day gross of all time ($92 million, blasting away the record previously held by “The Twilight Saga: New Moon” by $20 million), before the film zipped past “The Dark Knight”‘s opening weekend record and settled at a whopping $168.5 million for the weekend. In other news, at a more modest $41.7 million, “Midnight in Paris” popped back into the top 10 and became Woody Allen’s highest grossing film to date, while “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” is now the year’s first $300 million grosser. It’s now a battle between the boy wizard and the robots for the year’s domestic crown. It just depends on how front-loaded the former is. We’ll keep an eye on it throughout the rest of the summer.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

July 17, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Horrible,’ ‘Zookeeper’ can’t stop ‘Transformers’

Not much to say. “Super 8” had another good drop, while Woody Allen fell out of the top 10, but continues to chase himself (he’ll be on the heels of “Hannah and Her Sisters” next week). And finally something takes “The Hangover: Part II” off the top of the domestic chart this year.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

July 10, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Lantern’ lights the way

I imagine $52 million for the “Green Lantern” start is lower than WB was hoping for out of a potential franchise-starter but solid enough given the critical thrashing (and seems about right for the film). I totally forgot “Mr. Popper’s Penguins” was coming out this weekend, and so did most others, it seems. “Midnight in Paris” expanded wider than any Woody Allen film to date and keeps chugging, while “Super 8” had a pretty good hold.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

June 19, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Super’ start

It’s left to be seen whether “Super 8” has the legs a number of people certainly HOPE it has (and we’ll just take the studio’s word on that $50 million price tag). But this is a better start than most were expecting, and a big win for the film overall.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

June 12, 2011
‘X’ marks the top spot

(I figure it’s time to start bringing these back in on Sundays.)

I would have said it’ll be interesting to see if Paramount’s strategy of screening “Super 8” to the geek base and using favorable reviews to drive tracking will be enough to grab a top spot next week, but with a $56 million opening, it seems safer to expect “X-Men: First Class” to enjoy just one week at #1. You might make the argument that with no stars and no franchise staples to market, that number is a win. But it’s surely lower than Fox wanted. Still, word-of-mouth could be good enough to keep the drop manageable and keep the race for #1 interesting.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

June 5, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘King’s Speech’ holds on in the top 10…

…and is poised to have a good night.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

February 27, 2011
BOX OFFICE: ‘Swan,’ ‘Speech’ cross $100 million

The headline says it all. The two films join “Toy Story 3,” “Inception” and “True Grit” as the only Best Picture nominees to reach that mark this year. “The Fighter” has slowed too much to get there and a re-release of “The Social Network” didn’t go as well as planned in that regard.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

February 20, 2011
BOX OFFICE: Bieber fever

All four at the top are new releases, but “Black Swan” will cross $100 million tomorrow or Tuesday, “The King’s Speech” will get there next weekend, and “True Grit” is at $160 million and climbing.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

February 13, 2011
BOX OFFICE: Is there a game on?

And with that, “True Grit” crosses $150 million domestic and keeps chugging. “The King’s Speech” moved up a notch in rank and still has $100 million in its sights (and has also leaped-frogged a few 2011 debuts in the process). “Black Swan” brings up the rear and one more week will get it across that mark, while “The Fighter” is just on the outside of the top 10, aimed at $90 million for now. And “Tangled,” I notice, is crawling toward a $200 million mark it’ll likely never reach.

Now, enough of all that. Super Bowl.

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

February 6, 2011

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